Positivo e Negativo a New York

Alibaba è stato quotato stanotte in Cina e ovviamente è esploso come una stella filante (un IPO di uno dei maggiori internet cinesi...) come ho segnalato Yahoo ne ha acquisito una bella fetta e quindi dovrebbe beneficiarne e si potevano comprare della Call ad es dicembre su ^Yahoo#^ contando appunto sull'effetto della quotazione di Alibaba vediamo oggi come vanno ------------------ Alibaba Shares Triple in Hong Kong Trading Debut (Update6) By Mark Lee and John Liu Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Alibaba.com Ltd., operator of China's largest online trading site for companies, almost tripled on its first day of trading in Hong Kong, making the stock four times more expensive than Google Inc. relative to earnings. The Chinese company's shares closed at HK$39.50 from their HK$13.50 offer price. That gives Hangzhou-based Alibaba a market value of $25.7 billion, closing in on Yahoo Japan Corp. as Asia's biggest Internet company. The stock trades at 155 times next year's estimated earnings, underscoring the surge in demand for Chinese shares that made PetroChina Co. the world's first $1 trillion company yesterday. Alibaba, founded nine years ago by a former English teacher with $60,000, predicts profit will almost triple this year on rising online trades in the world's fastest-growing major economy. ``It's a high valuation but if Alibaba can use its leadership position in the e-commerce market to get more Chinese businesses to pay for its services, it will justify it,'' said Rafe Xu, an analyst at Sinopac Securities Asia Ltd. in Shanghai, who plans to initiate coverage on the company. ``They have a lot of work to do.''

Yahoo è in fibrillazione perchè il mercato si è accorto che ha una bella quota del 39% di ^Alibaba#http://www.alibaba.com/^ una holding cinese che sta per fare il suo IPO e che contiene cinque o sei delle società cinesi internet più promettenti (un misto di amazon, craig list, paypal...) il ^mago delle opzioni Phil Davies#http://seekingalpha.com/article/51832-yahoo-will-hit-50-before-you-can-say-alibaba-com^ descrive un poco la situazione e i numeri, oggi Yahoo è tornata giù, ma questa sembra una situazione da Call 33 novembre ---------------------------- ..With two more strong IPO candidates under the Alibaba Group umbrella, Yahoo should pick up another $5 billion in value off their $1 billion investment for a total of $8.6 billion - or more money than Yahoo has earned in the company’s combined history! How do we value that? Yahoo’s entire market cap is "just" $45 billion but a big footprint in China should give them quite a buzz, and the next thing we’ll be hearing about is the mini-Google aspects of Yahoo as they are suddenly seen as a growth stock. Rather than cashing in on this IPO, Yahoo seems to be bidding on the Alibaba.com IPO, picking up another $100 million worth ahead of the retail release next week. Like I said, smart investors! So, with $8 billion more value from an investment in a stock market that jumped 4% in today’s trading, it’s no more ridiculous to give Yahoo a $67 billion market cap than it is to see the Hang Seng at 31,586 this morning ...

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Friday December 27th 7:50--Allstate, Safeco, and Travelers estimates were lowered due to adverse weather at Morgan Stanley. 7:46--Major oil stock’s estimates were raised at Prudential. BP, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch were some of the names mentioned. 7:43--A Hamas leader issued a call for attacks on Israel. 7:13--Orchid Biosciences received a $10M credit line. 7:12--Silicon Storage Technology warned that its Q4 EPS would not meet expectations because of a larger than expected decline in selling prices. Expects loss of 7c-10c/sh vs. previous expectations of a loss of 3c-5c/sh. 7:11--Pres. Bush’s tax cut package may exclude cuts for the upper income tax bracket. 7:10--Stocks are: S&P -2.00, Nasdaq -1.00. -Dollar down slightly in quiet trade. Geopolitical factors being cited yet again. Iraq and North Korea weighing on the dollar and US stocks. -Japanese industrial production was -2.2% vs. -0.5% expected. Economics ministry also said that output would keep falling as demand remains depressed. Japanese unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.5%. Koizumi said late yesterday that the economy had been hurt by the strong yen. Shiokawa said today that there would have to be action taken if the yen strengthened further. -North Korea has expelled its only 2 UN IAEA nuclear inspectors. -US troops in Afghanistan found a rocket launching site, from which recent attacks were launched against US forces. -NYT reports that generic drug prices are rising almost twice as rapidly as prices of name-brand drugs. -Chechens killed 25 when they bombed a government building. Positive: -Lockheed Martin won a 48 F-16 jet order from Poland worth $3.5B. -Sherwin-Williams said they see the strongest demand in a decade from the do-it-yourself segment. Upgrades: - Negative: -PepsiCo’s antitrust case against Coca-cola was dismissed by an appeals court. -Royal Caribbean has become affected by passenger sicknesses, when 75 passengers got sick on one of its cruises. -Unocal warned Q4 EPS would be 40c-45c/sh vs. 50c-60c/sh previously projected. Downgrades: -Investment banking industry received negative comments from Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, which said they see no rebound in 2003. -Vehicle parts suppliers’ earnings estimates were reduced at UBS. Names include AXL, DCN, and LEA. Neutral: -

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Monday December 23rd 7:59--Pitney Bowes will take a $100M charge (26c/sh) for aircraft leases to United and US Airways. 7:42--Cypress Semiconductor guided Q4 revenue down to $174M from $187M consensus. 7:39--THQ settled a class action suit for $10.15M. 7:36--XM Satellite Radio is getting $450M in financing from GM in exchange for warrants. 7:30--Nov Personal Income was +0.3% vs. +0.2% expected. PCE was +0.5% vs. +0.4% expected. Oct personal income was revised to +0.3% from +0.1%. Spending was unrevised. The data are never really market moving and shouldn’t move the market’s much today either. 7:25--North Korea removed monitoring equipment from its nuclear reactor. That move is also increasing tension and therefore raising gold prices, crude oil, and credit markets. 7:24--Federated said it may miss holiday sales targets. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -4.00, Nasdaq -4.00. -Stocks slightly lower after Iraqi officials said they want the US to show its information on its weapons. The increased mideast tensions are helping gold and crude oil as well. -Trent Lott said he fell into a trap set by his political enemies. Positive: -ExxonMobil got a $3.5B verdict reversal from the Alabama Supreme Court. The case involved Mobile Bay royalties and will go back to a lower court. -Abbott Labs won FDA approval for its epilepsy drug Depakote. -Boeing announced that it will design a new jet to fit between the 737 and 767 lineup that would be as fast and as fuel efficient as the 777. It would be in service around 2008. No word on what would happen to the 757 which currently fills that gap. Said they would keep working on their sonic cruiser design. -Pharmacia made positive comments on its Inspira drug, saying that it met objectives. Will submit drug application. -Neurocrine Biosciences reported positive trial results. Upgrades: -Tuesday Morning was upgraded to strong buy from buy at Wachovia. -Lockheed Martin was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank. Negative: -Walmart reaffirmed last week’s affirmation of Dec same-store sales at lower end of 3%-5% range. -Tweeter warned Q1 EPS would be in the 20c-25c/sh range vs. 58c/sh consensus. -Citigroup will take a $1.3B charge for current settlements for SEC and related litigation. -FelCor Lodging lowered its forecast. -WeightWatchers received negative comments in Barron’s. Downgrades: -McDonald’s debt was placed on review for possible downgrade. -FelCor Lodging was downgraded to hold at Deutsche Bank. -Household Int’l was downgraded to hold at Deutsche Bank. Neutral: -Energizer affirmed its Q1 outlook of 89c-92c/sh vs. 90c/sh consensus.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Friday December 20th 8:16--Fed’s Poole said that the timing of the transition to higher growth remains unclear, but there is little doubt that improved growth is around the corner. 8:09--Scholastic was removed from Goldman Sachs’ current investment list. 8:05--Entergis was upgraded to buy from neutral at Merrill Lynch. 8:03--Fed Poole’s comments sound like he is looking for slow and steady growth, but continued to include the caveat that it could all turn south again if business spending doesn’t pick up. Comments are neutral for markets overall. 8:00--Fed’s Poole said the economy is “still working through” weakness. Said economy is fundamentally sound and resilient. Said pattern of growth in 2002 has hurt confidence in the economy. Said productivity increase is holding back job creation. Said consumer spending will be a ‘solid’ 3% in 2003. Said 2003 growth depends on business spending pace. Recent stock market gains show uncertainty fading. 7:59--Georgia-Gulf was upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley. 7:57--Foot Locker was downgraded to neutral from outperform at CSFB. 7:55--Photon Dynamics was recommended at Lehman which wanted to use the weakness as an entry point. 7:39--Cognos was upgraded to strong buy from outperform at Raymond James. 7:30--Q3 GDP final revision was +4.0% vs. +4.0% expected and +4.0% previously. The release should have little effect on the market because the data is so old. It encompasses economic activity that occurred 2-5 months ago. 7:21--Asbury Automotive cut its 2002 view to $1.37-$1.40 from $1.50/sh. 2003 estimate was cut to $1.65-$1.75 from $1.80-$1.90 previously. 7:20--Eli Lilly’s osteoperosis injection won favorable comments from a European Committee. 7:19--Pharmacia won FDA approval for its Zyvox antibiotic in children. 7:18--Ford is expected to settle states’ rollover lawsuits according to ‘sources.’ 7:17--Tektronix was upgraded to buy at Wachovia. 7:16--George Soros was fined $2.2M in his insider trading case. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P +6.00, Nasdaq +4.00. -Euro and Yen down on US stock market strength. Stocks up on positive earnings releases, today’s quadruple option expiration, and some interpretations that Greenspan’s speech was bullish. -German PPI was -0.2%. -Finance Minister Shiokawa said that Japan is monitoring yen for possible future intervention to weaken the currency. -Greenspan’s speech last night said that he was cautiously optimistic that the economy would resume robust growth. Said consumer spending would slow as stimulants wear off, but that businesses will pick up spending once the threat of war subsides. Said the Fed would do whatever it takes to stop deflation. -George Soros was found guilty in a French court of insider trading. -Brokerage firms are getting ready to announce a settlement with the SEC for as much as $1.5B. Positive: -3Com Q2 EPS ex-items was break-even vs. -5c/sh consensus. Revenues were $303.2M vs. $285.8M consensus. Said revenues would be down 5%-7%, but still above expectations. -Solectron Q1 loss was -1c/sh vs. -2c/sh consensus. Revenues were $3.14B vs. $3.00B consensus. Guided Q2 up to -2c/sh to break-even vs. -2c/sh consensus. Sales guidance was slightly disappointing at $2.80-$3.00B vs. $2.99B consensus. -Cognos Q3 EPS was 22c/sh vs. 19c/sh consensus. Revenues were $138.1M vs. $138.0M consensus. Guided Q4 EPS up to 28c-29c/sh vs. 27c/sh consensus. -Paychex Q2 EPS was 20c/sh vs. 19c/sh consensus. Revenue was $268.8M vs. $266.4M consensus. -Manugistics Q3 loss was -18c/sh vs. -19c/sh consensus. Revenues were $62.4M vs. $61.3M consensus. -American Healthcare Q1 EPS was 23c/sh vs. 21c/sh consensus. Company guided Q2 EPS up to 25c-26c/sh vs. 24c/sh consensus. -Tektronix Q2 EPS was 12c/sh vs. 9c/sh consensus. Revenues were $204.6M vs. $206.8M consensus. -Accenture is guiding Q1 EPS up to 27c/sh vs. 24c/sh consensus. Company also guided revenues higher. -Scholastic Q2 EPS was $1.85 vs. $1.79 consensus. -BellSouth won long-distance approval in two more states. Upgrades: -Business Objects was upgraded to buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch. Negative: -Ocular Sciences cut its Q4 guidance to 32c-36c/sh vs. 47c/sh consensus. Even worse, the guidance includes a 5c/sh non-recurring gain. -Photon Dynamics cut Q1 loss outlook to 15c-23c/sh from consensus for a +5c/sh profit. Company also reduced revenue expectations. -Electronics Boutique cut its Q4 outlook to $1.05-$1.13 vs. $1.33-$1.39 given in previous guidance. Consensus is $1.27/sh. -Tupperware cut its FY02 outlook to $1.30/sh vs. $1.47/sh consensus. -Halliburton will be probed by the SEC for accounting problems. -Duke Energy will cut 275 employees. Downgrades: -Abbott Labs was downgraded to market perform from outperform at SG Cowen. -American Healthcare was downgraded to market perform at SG Cowen. Neutral: -Jabil Circuit Q1 EPS was 15c/sh which was as expected. Company guided Q2 to 15c-17c/sh vs. 16c/sh consensus. -Instinet is rumored to be in merger talks with Goldman according to Business Week. -Nike Q2 EPS was 57c/sh vs. 56c/sh consensus. Revenues were $2.51B vs. $2.44B consensus. Guided Q3 down to 46c/sh vs. 53c/sh consensus.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Thursday December 19th 8:11--Trimeris was downgraded to hold from buy at Prudential. 8:00--Argosy Gaming warned that it would not meet Q4 EPS guidance. 7:57--Barnes & Noble lowered their sales guidance and said that holiday sales are disappointing so far. 7:55--Goldman Sachs Q4 EPS was 98c/sh vs. 96c/sh expected. 7:36--Morgan Stanley Q4 EPS was 81c/sh vs. 74c/sh consensus. Revenues, however, were $4.25B vs. $4.72B consensus. 7:35--Lehman Q4 EPS was $1.00 vs. 88c/sh consensus. Gains came from the sale of bonds. 7:30--Initial claims were -11K to 433K vs. 401K expected. Last week was revised to 444K from 441K previously. Last week, the Labor dept said that the jump in claims was a seasonal adjustment issue and not to put too much weight in one week’s number. However, the number remained relatively high today, and that is giving support to the bond market and slight pressure to stocks. 7:21--Carnival Q4 EPS was 33c/sh vs. 30c/sh consensus. 7:19--Family Dollar Q1 EPS was 33c/sh vs. 32c/sh consensus. Company affirmed full-year guidance. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -3.00, Nasdaq -6.00. -Dollar slightly lower this morning based on continued mideast and Iraqi tension. -Yen higher despite weaker Japanese government economic forecast. -UN will meet today concerning Iraq. US will make a comment after Hans Blix assessment. So far, he has said the list is incomplete. Gold is up 6.00/oz as a result. -Crude oil continues to rally on Venezuela strike concerns. Positive: -The semiconductor book-to-bill ratio was 0.79. Oct was revised to 0.78 from 0.73. -General Dynamics will pay $1.1B to buy the armored vehicle defense unit at GM. -Oracle Q2 EPS was 10c/sh vs. 8c/sh expected. Revenues were $2.31B vs. $2.21B consensus. Q3 guidance was 9c-10c/sh vs. 9c/sh consensus. CFO said he is confident that the worst is behind the company. -Philip Morris judgment was cut in California to $28M from $28B. Said the original punitive damages were “legally excessive.” -Bed Bath & Beyond Q3 EPS was 25c/sh vs. 23c/sh consensus. Revenues were $936M vs. $924M consensus. Said Q4 EPS will be in line with estimates. -Tibco Software Q4 EPS was 3c/sh vs. 1c/sh consensus. -Palm Q2 EPS was +19c/sh vs. -15c/sh consensus. Revenues were $264.9M vs. $253M consensus. -Novastar Q4 guidance was raised to $1.50-$1.75 from $1.15-$1.25 previously. Upgrades: -Prudential was upgraded to overweight from underweight at Lehman. -Safeway was upgraded to buy at Merrill Lynch. -Coach, Gymboree, and Williams-Sonoma were upraded at Merrill Lynch. Negative: -Honeywell will take a $1.9B asbestos charge or $2.30/sh. Company will report a Q4 loss of $1.80. -Jack In The Box guided Q1 EPS to 55c-63c/sh vs. 63c/sh consensus. -Cintas Q2 EPS was 37c/sh vs. 38c/sh consensus. Company lowered full-year guidance to $1.52-$1.55 from $1.57/sh consensus. -Riverstone Networks reported a Q3 GAAP loss of -23c/sh vs. -16c/sh consensus. -Intersil cut its Q4 outlook. -Gamestop cut its Q4 guidance to 48c-52c/sh vs. 62c-68c/sh given in previous guidance. -Steelcase Q3 loss was 8c/sh which was as expected. Company guided Q4 loss to 5c-10c/sh vs. -3c/sh consensus. Downgrades: -Tibco Software was downgraded to hold from buy at Wachovia. Neutral: -

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Wednesday December 18th 8:13--Winnebago Q1 EPS was 85c/sh vs. 71c/sh consensus. Revenues were $234M vs. $216M consensus. 8:11--FuelCell Energy Q4 loss was -53c/sh vs. -40c/sh consensus. 8:09--Rohm & Haas cut its Q4 outlook to 21c-24c/sh vs. 40c/sh consensus. 8:00--Microsoft’s estimate was raised at Bank of America. 7:58--Motorola said they will use cash to retire $825M in puttable securities. 7:55--Bear Stearns Q4 EPS was 1.36/sh vs. 1.24/sh consensus. 7:38--Carmax Q3 EPS was 18c/sh vs. 17c/sh consensus. Guided Q4 slightly lower to 18c-20c/sh vs. 20c/sh consensus. 7:37--Microchip received positive comments from JP Morgan. 7:35--Blockbuster guided 2002 EPS down to $1.03-$1.10 vs. $1.31 consensus. 7:33--The number is slightly bullish for the credit market’s just like the current account, which suggests that the US will not have to finance as much of its deficits from foreigners. 7:30--Oct trade balance was -$35.07B vs. -$36.6B consensus. Sep gap revised to 37.1B from 38.03B previously. Exports were 81.98B vs. 82.16B previously. Imports were 117.05B vs. 120.2B previously. 7:26--Darden Restaurants was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at CIBC. 7:22--Viacom affirmed Q4 and 2002 targets. 7:21--GE will buy European company Instrumentarium for 2B euro. 7:19--Broadcom’s price target was reduced at UBS. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -2.00, Nasdaq -3.00. -Dollar slightly higher on new expectations that the new Treas Sec will be in support of strong dollar policy. -European stocks down -0.8% in UK, -1.2% in Germany. Nikkei -2.0%. -Japanese government downgraded the Japanese economic outlook. Mizoguchi was pleased with yesterday’s strong dollar affirmation by the US. -German IFO fell to 87.1 vs. 87.3 previously. However, the latest reading was slightly above expectations. UK unemployment fell to a 27 year low. -The US may declare Iraq in breach of the UN weapons resolutions. -Crude oil slightly lower despite API crude oil stocks falling -3.2M bbls. Distillate stocks were -462K. Gasoline stocks were +119K. Positive: -An FDA panel gave limited approval to MedImmune’s Flumist. Panel found it safe but not effective for certain age groups. -FSI International Q1 loss was -36c/sh vs. -44c/sh consensus. -Lennar Homes guided Q4 EPS up to around $3.09/sh vs. $2.81 consensus. Guided 2003 up to $8.50 vs. $8.10. -General Mills Q2 EPS was 77c/sh vs. 74c/sh consensus. Guided Q3 to 65c-66c/sh vs. 66c/sh consensus and guided FY to $2.60-$2.62 vs. $2.59 consensus. -Biomet Q2 EPS was 27c/sh vs. 26c/sh consensus. Affirmed outlook for Q3. -Apollo Group Q1 EPS was 30c/sh vs. 23c/sh consensus. Guided Q2 and FY03 higher. Upgrades: -Cendant was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley. -Comcast was upgraded to strong buy from buy at Wachovia. Negative: -Micron Q1 loss was -32c/sh vs. -23c/sh consensus. Revenues were $685M vs. $804M consensus. Micron affirmed ’03 capex guidance. Said that it expects strong customer demand in Q2. -Activision cut its Q3 EPS to 60c/sh vs. 79c/sh consensus. Cut revenue guidance to $362M from $421M consensus. -PolyOne cut its Q4 EPS guidance to a loss of 17c-22c/sh vs. break-even expected. -ATI Tech Q1 EPS was 3c/sh vs. 4c/sh consensus. Revenues were $322M vs. $270M consensus. Company lowered guidance to around 3c/sh vs. 5c/sh consensus. -Darden Restaurants Q2 EPS was 21c/sh vs. 22c/sh consensus. Revenues were as expected at $1.07B. -Supervalu Q3 EPS was 43c/sh vs. 44c/sh. Guided Q4 to 55c-60c/sh vs. 56c/sh consensus. -Actuant Q1 EPS was 64c/sh vs. 60c/sh consensus. Affirmed full year outlook. -Read-Rite guided FY03 loss down to 32c-35c/sh vs. 20c-22c/sh previously. Sales guidance was lowered also. -Kirklands issued cautious statements for Q4 sales. -Pinnacle West priced a 5.7 mln share follow on offering. -Cardinal Health filed to sell $1B in securities. -Citigroup may agree to pay $350M fine in a research settlement. -HCA Healthcare is near an $880M settlement with the Justice Dept. -Conseco filed for the third largest bankruptcy in US history. Downgrades: - Neutral: -FedEx Q2 EPS was 81c/sh vs. 79c/sh consensus. Guided Q3 slightly lower to 45c-55c/sh vs. 54c/sh consensus.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Tuesday December 17th 7:58--BP was upgraded to outperform at CSFB. 7:56--Cendant is reaffirming 2002 EPS ex-items of $1.24/sh. 7:49--McDonald’s guidance was below expectations. Expects Q4 EPS of 25c-26c/sh vs. 32c/sh consensus. 7:36--SAP AG was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC. 7:33--The numbers are largely neutral for the market. However, medical care was +0.6% and +5.0% y/y. This is a component that will continue to take spending money out of the pockets of consumers. 7:30--Nov Housing Starts were +2.4% to 1.697M vs. 1.680M consensus. Permits were -2.7% to 1.725. 7:30--Nov CPI was +0.1% vs. +0.2% expected. Core was +0.2% vs. +0.2% expected. 7:24--Xilinx March quarter appears strong and ahead of company’s estimates according to JP Morgan. 7:21--Best Buy guided Q4 EPS to $1.00-$1.10 vs. $1.00 consensus, but down 5c/sh from previous guidance due to an operating loss at its Musicland division. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -2.00, Nasdaq -3.00. -Euro up sharply on increased war threat with Iraq. Yen up for same reason. -Colin Powell said the US has problems with Iraq’s weapons declaration, indicating an increased likelihood of war. Said US will pass judgment on the declaration by the end of the week. -There are also expectations that John Snow may weaken the dollar. -European stocks down -0.9% in UK, -1.4% in Germany. Nikkei +0.7%. -US stocks down likely due to need to correct yesterday’s strong rally. Most news so far is positive for stocks. -BTM weekly sales were +1.9% vs. -2.3% last week. Sales were on-to-below plan. -NY transit workers struck a deal to avoid a strike. Positive: -GE is backing its forecast for 2002 & 2003. 2002 EPS should be $1.51, which is as expected. 2003 EPS should be $1.55-$1.70 vs. $1.62 expected. -Callaway Golf guided 2002 EPS higher. -Take Two Q4 EPS was 54c/sh vs. 47c/sh consensus. Revenues were $218.3M vs. $185.3M consensus. Company raised Q1 guidance to $1.14/sh vs. 97c/sh consensus and revenue to $355M vs. $298M consensus. Raised 2003 guidance to $2.20/sh vs. $2.00/sh consensus. Revenues were guided to $950M vs. $841M consensus. -Circuit City Q3 loss was -7c/sh before items vs. -13c/sh consensus. Revenues were $2.42B vs. $2.4B consensus. -Best Buy Q3 EPS was 26c/sh vs. 25c/sh consensus. Revenues were $5.51B vs. $5.5B consensus. Guided 2002 revenues to $22.8B which is slightly above $22.7B consensus. -NVidia’s CEO said that he expects demand for graphics chips to rebound in 2003. Upgrades: -Walgreen’s was upgraded to over weight from equal weight at Lehman. Negative: -Target said Dec same-store sales are coming in “well below plan.” -Longs Drugs is cutting FY03 capex spending to $90M-$100M from $120M. -KMart will be delisted before trade on Dec 19th opens and move to the bulletin board system. -Monterey Pasta warned that it would miss Q4 profit and sales estimates. Downgrades: -GM received cautious comments from Goldman Sachs. -Texas Industries was downgraded to reduce from hold at UBS. Neutral: -McDonald’s may move into the fast Italian casual restaurant concept. Entered a joint venture to develop 20 to 30 Fazoli’s restaurants. -Pier 1 Q3 EPS was 33c/sh which was as expected.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Monday December 16th 7:55--ATI Tech is being questioned about 2000 earnings. 7:52--Wyeth was downgraded to market perform from strong buy at Raymond James. 7:29--Forest Labs also is declaring a 2-for-1 stock split. 7:27--Mentor Corp declared a 2-for-1 stock split. 7:24--Merrill Lynch’s technical analyst said the outlook for the stock market is decidedly positive in the intermediate-term. 7:23--People’s Energy was downgraded to market perform at Bank of America. 7:18--Illinois Tool Works affirmed its Q4 and full-year forecast. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P +6.00, Nasdaq +7.00. -Dollar up on higher US stocks. -ECB’s Duisenberg said the ECB would cut rates if a US-Iraq war was protracted. -European stocks down +1.2% in UK, +1.9% in Germany. Nikkei -0.8% -Empire State MFG index just released at 10.6 vs. 6.0 expected. Last month, this index, exerted a large effect on markets. -Oil higher on tension in Venezuela. -Senate minority leader Trent Lott may face a re-vote for his leadership after Don Nickles called for a new vote. Three more senators need to sign on for a re-vote to take place. Positive: -Labor Ready guided Q4 EPS down to 5c-7c/sh vs. 7c/sh consensus. However, previous guidance was 4c-7c/sh. Company said they see modestly improving sales trends -IBM reported good progress on its new line of semiconductors. -Valero Energy raised its Q4 target by 50%. -UAL CFO said that bookings since its bankruptcy filing are better than expected. -Garmin raised its Q4 EPS forecast. -Ryland Group is increasing its buyback by 1M shares. Upgrades: -Lehman raised its US equity weighting to 50% from 39%, cut Europe to 24% from 35%. -Infineon was upgraded to neutral from underperform at CSFB. -Delta Air Lines was upgraded at CSFB. -Hewlett-Packard was added focus 1 list at Merrill. -TXU was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley. -CSX was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley. -Masco was upgraded to strong buy from buy at UBS. Negative: -HealthSouth guided 2003 EPS down to 55c-57c/sh vs. 59c/sh consensus. -Marconi will cut 1,000 more jobs than the 14,000-17,300 already announced. -AmerisourceBergen will buy US Bioservices for $160M. -Wal-Mart filed to sell $10B in debt securities. -ConAgra filed a $4B mixed securities shelf. Downgrades: -Vivendi Entertainment was downgraded to outperform from inline at Goldman. -Bristol-Myers credit rating may be cut at Moody’s. -Internet Security was downgraded to underperform at SG Cowen. -Plexus was downgraded to underperform at SG Cowen. Neutral: -Petco affirmed its Q4 guidance of 35c-36c/sh. Consensus is 36c/sh. Will take a one-time 4c/sh charge.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Wednesday December 11th 8:17--Kimberly-Clark was downgraded to market perform at Bank of America. 8:07--Bonds up on possible increasing mideast tension. Yemen’s demand for the return of scud missiles and the US’s likely discomfort with that will put the US in a difficult situation with a country that the US has been attempting to create an ally. 8:05--Westport Resources is pricing a 10 mln share follow on offering today. 8:02--CDW is quoted on the wires as raising its revenue outlook to $1.05B. However, we see consensus at $1.1B, which looks like an affirmation (with a likely rounding up). Company earlier affirmed its EPS guidance. 8:00--CNBC saying that supply is pressuring the stock market. The Seagate and Baxter offerings today and tomorrow are the items being referred to. 7:59--Sprint (FON) will cut 2,100 jobs in a streamlining operation. 7:57--Providian Financial was upgraded to outperform at Raymond James. 7:55--Amgen received cautious comments from UBS ahead of its mid-quarter update. 7:55--CDW reaffirmed its Q4 guidance of 50c-52c/sh. 7:40--Moog’s estimates were raised at Merrill Lynch. 7:29--Schlumberger was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Lehman. 7:28--Mercury Interactive’s enterprise testing software was chosen by Siebel. 7:27--First Data was upgraded to overweight from underweight at Morgan Stanley. 7:25--Yemen is demanding that the US return the scud missiles. 7:24--Advance Auto priced a secondary offering of 8.58 mln shares. 7:22--ADM was downgraded to underperform at Bank of America. 7:20--Emmis Comm and Clear Channel were upgraded to strong buy at Wachovia. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -2.00, Nasdaq -1.00. -Yen up after Japan’s trade surplus and current account grew. Also, Takanaka said that Japan may move up the deadline to shore up balance sheets to 1 year from 3 years. -Euro down slightly after German growth estimates were reduced. Also, French CPI hit 10 month high. -Crude oil down slightly on slightly higher inventories of gasoline and distillates. Oil inventories fell slightly. -A ship carrying scud missiles bound for Yemen was seized last night. The intended final destination is so far believed to be Yemen and not Iraq, but it’s too early to be sure. The missiles came from North Korea. -The Seagate IPO priced below the expected range. Priced near $12/sh vs. $13-$15/sh expected. Positive: -Photronics Q4 loss was -6c/sh vs. -9c/sh consensus. -Pegasus Solutions raised its full year EPS guidance to 55c-62c/sh vs. 53c/sh consensus. -Xilinx raised slightly its revenue target range to $280M-$286.2M vs. $278M-$285M previously. -Toll Brothers Q4 EPS was 93c/sh vs. 89c/sh consensus. Revenues were $705.6M vs. $678.2M consensus. -Analogic Q1 EPS was $1.52 vs. 69c/sh consensus. -MetLife guided 2003 EPS to $2.80-$2.90 vs. $2.76 consensus. -Overland Storage boosted Q2 guidance to 4c/sh vs. 1c/sh consensus. -Dow Jones boosted its outlook. Upgrades: -Retail sector was upgraded at Lehman. -WellPoint was upgraded to buy from hold at Prudential. -First Data was upgraded to overweight from underweight at Morgan Stanley. -Gap was upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Lehman. -Nicor was upgraded at CIBC. Negative: -Yum Brands warned that Q1 EPS will be below estimates. Guided Q1 EPS to 40c vs. 43c/sh consensus. Company affirmed FY02 & FY03 EPS. -Kimberly-Clark cut its 2003 operating profit numbers. Said EPS will be 72c-76c/sh vs. 82c-86c/sh consensus. -Intel’s Grove said it is too early to call a rebound in chip demand. -West Group guided Q4 EPS down to 20c/sh vs. 26c/sh consensus. -Procter & Gamble bid $5.5B for a 44% stake in Beirersdorf (a 60% premium). Allianz, which owns the stake, is balking at the price. -Schlumberger will cut 1,600 jobs and take a Q4 charge of $2.89B for goodwill impairment. -Baxter will offer 13 mln shares and $850M in equity units. -Brewery stocks received negative comments in the WSJ Heard on the Street column. Names mentioned were BUD and RKY. Downgrades: -Pacific Sunwear was downgraded to equal weight at Lehman. -Sara Lee was downgraded to hold from buy at Prudential. -Manpower was downgraded to buy from strong buy at Wachovia. -Calpine was downgraded at CIBC. Neutral: -Toro guided Q1 EPS down to 31c/sh vs. 32c/sh consensus. However company raised 2003 earnings. -Medtronic affirmed forward guidance.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Tuesday December 10th 8:11--Kroger is also warning that ’03 sales will be slightly below expectations. 8:07--Mesa Air Group announced a voluntary pay reduction plan. 8:02--Comcast sees capital costs 4.2B-4.5B. Will invest 2.0B-2.5B for AT&T Cable upgrades. 8:00--Redbook retail sales were +0.6% for month ended Dec 7th. 8:00--German ZEW was +0.6% vs. +4.2%. News should be negative for the euro, but fundamentals don’t always have an effect on that currency. 7:54--While Kroger affirmed Q3 EPS, announced a buyback, and raised cash flow projections, company also said it expects health care and pension costs to increase substantially in 2003. 7:52--Engineered Support Q4 EPS was 50c/sh vs. 48c/sh consensus. Revenues were $118.3M vs. $120.5M consensus. 7:47--White House made consider Trade Rep Linnet Deily for SEC chairman position. 7:47--Northrop Grumman reached agreement with Justice Dept on purchase of TRW. Agreement does not require any divestitures. 7:41--Specialty Pharmaceutical sector was upgraded to market weight from underweight at Salomon. Names in that group are ACL, BRL, and MYL. 7:39--Kroger sees 2002 free cash flow of $900M vs. 650M-700M previously. Will buy back up to $500M in shares. 7:36--Barrick Gold estimates were lower to 16c/sh vs. 32c/sh previously at CSFB. 7:31--Forest Labs reported favorable results from an Alzheimer’s trial drug. 7:27--Maxtor was upgraded to strong buy at Needham. 7:25--BTM weekly sales were -2.3% last week. BTM economist said it is beginning to like a dismal season. Dec chain store sales expectation was revised down to +2.5% from +5.0%. 7:24--Tribune affirmed its Q4 & 2003 EPS guidance. 7:20--Stocks are: S&P +7.00, Nasdaq +8.00. -Stocks higher on Maxtor’s increased guidance, and not paying much attention to Nokia’s revenue warning. Positive: -Maxtor guided higher its Q4 revenue to $990M-$1.03B vs. $968M consensus. Guided Q4 EPS up to 10c-14c/sh vs. 5c/sh consensus. -Computer Science is hiring, according to the Washington Post. -Albertson’s authorized a $500M buyback program. -Synopsys renewed its $500M buyback program. Upgrades: -Avery Denison was added to Merrill Lynch’s Focus list. -Instinet was upgraded to neutral from sell at Merrill Lynch. -Radio One was upgraded at Morgan Stanley. Negative: -Nokia affirmed Q4 EPS, but guided lower sales forecast to E8.8B-E9.0B vs. E8.9B-E9.2B previously. -Ingram Micro affirmed Q4 EPS guidance of 17c-19c/sh vs. 18c/sh consensus. However, said that sales will approach the low end of expectations. -Kroll guided 2003 EPS down to $1.15/sh vs. $1.18/sh consensus. -Avon Products affirmed Q4 EPS, but guided 2003 EPS down to $2.54/sh vs. $2.58/sh consensus. -Integral Systems Q4 EPS was 7c/sh vs. 12c/sh consensus. Downgrades: -Deere & Co. was downgraded to inline from outperform at Salomon. -Abbott Labs was downgraded to equal weight from over weight at Morgan Stanley. -Delphi estimate was lowered at Goldman Sachs. -Medical Technology sector was downgraded at Morgan Stanley. -Marathon Oil was downgraded to hold at Prudential. Neutral: -

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Monday December 9th 8:03--Allegheny Energy was upgraded to overweight at JP Morgan. 8:03--Wal-Mart said weekend sales were lower than expected. 8:01--Oil Service sector was upgraded to overweight from market weight at Bank of America. 7:58--Delphi reiterated its Q4 outlook. 7:56--Mercury Computer raised its Q2 outlook to 25c-29c/sh vs. 18c-22c/sh previously forecast. 7:46--Andrx was upgraded to strong buy from market perform at Raymond James. 7:44--Convergys was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James. 7:41--Merck received cautious comments from JP Morgan, which said it would not buy the stock before tomorrow’s analyst meeting. 7:39--Schering-Plough was upgraded to buy at Prudential. 7:28--The White House confirmed that John Snow will be named the new Treas. Sec today. 7:25--ExxonMobil’s Exxon Valdez settlement was lowered to $4B from $5B. 7:23--In addition to Wendy’s, Bank of America also downgraded Yum and Sonic. 7:21--Nextel was downgraded to inline from outperform at Salomon. 7:21--AT&T Wireless was upgraded to outperform from in line at Salomon. 7:19--Skechers warned of Q4 loss of 25c-35c/sh vs. +5c/sh consensus. Revenue outlook was lowered to $160M-$170M vs. $195M-$205M given in previous guidance. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -7.00, Nasdaq -12.00. -Dollar lower due to weaker stocks and worries over new Treas Sec’s stance on strong dollar policy. -Yen is higher despite Japan’s machinery orders falling more than expected. -German Industrial Production was -2.1%. ECB’s Issing said there is more room to cut rates. -Steven Friedman (former chairman of Goldman) was said to accept Lindsey’s job of economic advisor. Treasury Sec job has not yet been filled, but John Snow (head of CSX) is likely person. Market could be disappointed with another corporate CEO and not a market savvy person. -Barron’s was pessimistic on likelihood of dividend tax cut. Said Grassley (head of Finance Comm.) is against it. -Iraq has released 12,000 pages of weapons declarations. UN said it will take days to go through the data. -Oil up 40c/bbl as Venezuelan strike continues. Positive: -Hovnanian Q4 EPS was $1.66/sh vs. $1.45/sh consensus. Revenues were $831.4M vs. $748.0M consensus. Company guided 2003 EPS up to $5.00-$5.20 vs. $4.67/sh consensus. Company also said that they do not expect to achieve the level of price increases that they have over the past 12 months and said forecast -Albertson’s Q3 EPS was 48c/sh which was as expected. Company affirmed full-year $2.10-$2.14/sh. -Ameripath will be acquired for $21.25 in cash vs. Friday’s close of 16.45 by Amy Acquisition Corp. -Cell Therapeutics’ cancer drug posted solid results. Upgrades: -Nokia was upgraded to outperform from in line at Salomon. -Qualcomm estimates were raised at CSFB. Company was downgraded at Salomon. -Cato Corp received positive comments in Barron’s, which said the shares were undervalued. -Nortel estimates were raised at Bear Stearns. Negative: -UAL expectedly filed for bankruptcy this morning. Stock is trading -0.38 to 0.58. Company won $1.5B dip financing. UAL President promised business as usual. -Gateway and Hewlett-Packard will furlough workers through the holidays in an effort to cut costs. -Gucci warned that Nov sales were less than expected. Downgrades: -Wendy’s was downgraded to market perform at Bank of America. -Qualcomm was downgraded to in line from outperform at Salomon. -IBM was downgraded to market perform from buy at Bank of America. -Video game stocks were downgraded at UBS. Names include AKLM, ATVI, MWY, and THQI. -Enterprise software group was downgraded at Morgan Stanley to cautious from in line. -Emulex was downgraded to neutral from outperform at Soundview. -Cable & Wireless was downgraded to sell from neutral at Merrill Lynch. Neutral: -

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Friday December 6th 7:55--UST was downgraded to hold at Prudential. 7:52--Franklin Resources was downgraded to sector perform at CIBC. 7:50--Advent Software was downgraded to underweight from neutral at JP Morgan. 7:49--Inco was downgraded to sell at Prudential. 7:47--Forest Labs said they had a setback with their blood pressure treatment. FDA requested additional information. 7:41--Stock negatives: Approaching Iraq deadline, Bombay bombing, employment report, technical break below top of bullish triangle. Stock positives: Qualcomm. 7:38--Wendy’s warned that 2002 EPS will be $1.88-$1.90 vs. $1.91 consensus. 7:32--The numbers obviously are negative for stocks and positive for bonds. The number is a surprise compared to the downward trend in initial claims in recent weeks. Combine this negative number with the Iraqi inspection deadline (and likely US disappointment in the report) and stocks should move lower throughout the day. 7:30--Nov Payrolls -40K vs. expected +35K. Oct was revised to +6K vs. -5K previously. MFG Payrolls -45K vs. expected -28K. Avg Hourly Earnings +0.3% vs. expected +0.3%. Unemployment Rate 6.0% vs. expected 5.8%. Retail -39K. Construction -4K. Services +50K. Government +8K. 7:27--Qualcomm received cautious comments from UBS, even after today’s guidance. 7:23--McDonald’s in Bombay India was bombed--17 hurt. 7:17--Paper and Forest Product sector was downgraded to inline at Morgan Stanley. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -4.00, Nasdaq -3.00. -Japanese officials have made comments suggesting that the yen has appropriately returned to excessively strong levels. Efforts to push the yen lower continue to be used to help exporters. -A small plane crashed into a Federal Reserve building in Miami late last night. Only the pilot was killed. Crash was rules an accident. -A head of a UN inspection team fired back at the US for demanding that the UN become more intrusive in their inspections after finding next to nothing. UN team head said that the UN does not serve the US. -S&P cut its junk default forecast to between 7.0%-7.5% from 8.0%-8.5% previously. Positive: -Intel raised its revenue projection to $6.8B-$7.0B from $6.5B-$6.9B previously. Sees wider loss on equity investments $90M vs. $50M previously. Also reported margins will decline to 49% vs. 49%-51% predicted previously. On conference call, executives appeared as though demand may be rising due to stuffing the Asian channel. Also indicated that there is no strong pickup in demand for chips from US PC makers. Intel is up only a few cents now, after trading much higher overnight. -Qualcomm is boosting its forecast for chip shipments to at least 28M MSM chips in Q1 vs. 25M-27M previous guidance. Raised Q2 estimate to 24M-27M vs. 20M guided previously. -Oxford Health boosted its FY03 guidance to $4.00-$4.10 from $3.97 consensus. -Brinker boosted its Q2 EPS guidance to 42c-43c/sh vs. 41c/sh consensus. -Apple received positive comments in the upcoming Business Week. Upgrades: -France Telecom was upgraded to overweight from underweight at Lehman. -Union Pacific was upgraded to peer perform from under perform at Bear Stearns. -Delphi was upgraded to inline from under-perform at Goldman. -PanAmSat was upgraded to equal weight from under weight at Lehman. -Cooper Cameron was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank. Negative: -IBM will buy Rational Software for $2.1B in cash. IBM is trading $2 lower in pre-open trade. The deal offers $10.50/sh vs. $8.17 in yesterday’s close. -ITT warned that full year 2003 EPS would be $3.70-$3.90 which is below expectations of $3.99. -Mandalay Resorts Q3 EPS was 50c/sh which was as expected. Revenues were $614.3M vs. $630.5M consensus. -Oakley lowered its Q4 EPS guidance to 3c/sh vs. 10c/sh consensus. -Tyson warned Q1 EPS would be 14c-18c/sh vs. 24c/sh consensus. Lowered full-year $1.00-$1.10 vs. $1.10/sh consensus. -McDonald’s Japan cut its outlook by -91%. -UAL may begin bankruptcy proceedings as early as Sunday. -Home Depot will begin expensing options and said they will have a 2c-3c/sh impact. Downgrades: -IBM was downgraded to inline from outperform at Salomon. -Mesa Air was downgraded to neutral from outperform at CSFB. -Goldman Sachs’ estimates were lowered at Morgan Stanley. Neutral: -

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Thursday December 5th 7:58--Garmin was downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley. 7:56--Salomon cut its 2003 GDP and S&P 500 targets. 7:52--Manugistics was downgraded to neutral from outperform at Soundview. Price target was cut to $3 from $7. 7:50--The ECB said the 50 bps rate cut was a consensus decision. Said council also considered a smaller cut but that there has been no abatement of uncertainty since Nov 7th. Said CPI will be above 2% only temporarily and will move lower from there. 7:48--Procter & Gamble was upgraded at Bank of America. 7:47--Gap said Nov same store sales exceeded expectations. 7:38--Computer Associates will sell $400M in convertible notes. 7:33--A bomb exploded at a McDonald’s in Indonesia, killing at least one. 7:30--Initial claims were -13K to 355K vs. 370K expected. Last week was revised to 368K from 364K previously. The number is obviously bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds. The number’s trend in recent weeks shows that employment is recovering. Last week was the payroll survey week. 7:23--Corning said they will take a $800-$825M charge. 7:21--Fairchild Semiconductor guided Q4 revenue slightly higher, but guided Q1 revenue slightly lower. Said Q4 EPS consensus of 7c/sh is challenging. 7:20--Oil refiners were upgraded to market outperform. SUN and VLO were upgraded. 7:19--Coherent was downgraded to hold from buy at UBS. 7:18--J. Jill was downgraded at Piper Jaffray. 7:17--Eli Lilly affirmed its Q4 guidance 68c-70c/sh vs. 68c/sh consensus. 7:16--Corning is saying that they see continued weakness and see no pickup in demand for telecommunication products until late-2004. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P +3.00, Nasdaq +13.00. -ECB cut overnight rates by 50 bps to 2.75% from 3.25%. -The BOE left overnight rates unchanged. -Iraq accused the UN of spying during yesterday’s visit to the presidential palace. Yesterday afternoon, Aziz said the US eyes mideast oil for more world control. Positive: -Merck guided FY03 EPS to $3.40-$3.47 vs. $3.37 consensus. Company still plans to spin off Medco in mid-2003. -Pacific Sunwear raised Q4 guidance to 55c/sh vs. recent guidance of 50c/sh. Consensus is 52c/sh. Company also declared a 3-for-2 stock split. -Circuit City reported record daily sales last Friday. Comp sales were +6.0%. -Pier 1 Imports raised its Q3 EPS guidance to 32c-33c/sh vs. 31c/sh consensus. -Sharper Image said Q4 EPS would be at the higher end of estimates. -Murphy Oil declared a 2-for-1 stock split. Upgrades: -Procter & Gamble was upgraded to buy from market perform at Bank of America. Negative: -IBM is announcing a plan for pension funding. Will fund fully this year with cash. Plan doesn’t change ’03 EPS views. Will continue to invest $5B in R&D. Will continue to invest $5B in CapEx. Sees $3B difference between assets and projections. Said they don’t see 2003 forecast changed. Company reaffirmed its forecast. Will fully fund pension plan under certain conditions. Expects to restore plan to fully-funded status this year. Company has not contributed to its pension plan since 1995 (didn’t need to because of stock market rally). -Gateway is lowering its Q4 loss target to 10c-14c/sh. Said low end Q4 EPS range is ‘best case scenario.’ Full-year revenue target is $4.3B-$4.5B. Consensus loss is -12c/sh. Consensus revenue is $4.4B. Said computers sold in Thanksgiving weekend good, but not great. Said desktop business is facing a ‘brutal’ pricing environment. -Synopsis Q4 EPS was 96c/sh vs. 97c/sh consensus. Revenues were $309.3M vs. $308.1M consensus. Guided Q1 down to 63c-68c/sh vs. 68c/sh consensus. Guided revenues down to $262M-$272M vs. $279.7M consensus. Affirmed full-year EPS of $3.25. -UAL failed to receive a $1.8B loan guarantee from the Air Transportation Stabilization Board. -J. Jill lowered warned of Q4 EPS and revenue miss. Expects EPS of 25c-30c/sh vs. 42c/sh consensus. -Dow Chemical filed a $2B mixed shelf offering. Downgrades: -Morgan Stanley downgraded to neutral from buy at Merrill Lynch. -ST Microelectronics was downgraded to sell at Deutsche Bank. -Vodafone PLC was downgraded to neutral at CSFB. -EDS received negative comments from Morgan Stanley. Neutral: -PacifiCare reaffirmed 2002 EPS guidance of $3.90/sh. -Prudential updated their full-year guidance to $2.40-$2.50 vs. $2.41/sh consensus. -Altera reaffirmed its Q4 revenue guidance of $177M-$184M. -American Eagle affirmed Q4 EPS expectations of 56c/sh. -Continental Air affirmed its Q4 outlook. -Ann Taylor affirmed its Q4 outlook. -Big Lots affirmed its Q4 outlook. -Yum Brands affirmed its Q4 outlook. -JC Penny affirmed its Q4 outlook of 60c/sh. -Corixa and Kirin signed an agreement to develop a cancer vaccine. 6:45--ECB cut overnight rates by 50 bps to 2.75% from 3.25%.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Wednesday December 4th 7:56--Iraq fired on US aircraft once again, and drew retaliation from US aircraft. The firing was the eighth time Iraq targeted US aircraft patrolling the no-fly zone in the three weeks since the Nov 7th UN resolution calling for Iraq to disarm. 7:48--Mentor Graphics was downgraded to hold from buy at Needham. 7:46--Manugistics put its Q3 loss at 18c-20c/sh, which is more than -14c/sh consensus. 7:42--Analog semiconductor stocks were downgraded at Deutsche. 7:39--Office Depot reaffirmed Q4 EPS of 22c/sh. 7:30--Q3 Productivity was revised to +5.1% vs. +4.0% previously. Expectations were +5.0%. Unit labor costs were revised to -0.2% from +0.8% previously. Expectations were unchanged. The number was so close to expectations, that that there will likely be little price movement. The numbers in general indicate that inflation will remain low and corporate profits should improve. 7:22--Michael’s Stores was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Robertson Stephens. 7:20--In addition to downgrading semiconductor equipment sector, Morgan Stanley also downgraded the semiconductor and enterprise hardware sectors. 7:18--Federated Nov same-store sales were -7.4%. Sees Nov-Dec sales at the low end of expectations. 7:16--Merck was downgraded to under-perform at Raymond James. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -8.00, Nasdaq -14.00. -Euro higher even though German unemployment reached a 4-year high. Retail sales were also weak. -Crude oil down after oil supplies rose 3.7M bbls in the latest API stats. -The CIA is probing a report that Iraq received smallpox from Russia. Positive: -ADC Telecom Q4 loss was -7c/sh vs. -9c/sh consensus. Revenues were $219.9M vs. $199.9M consensus. Expects Q1 loss of 3c-5c/sh vs. -7c/sh consensus. -Cisco Systems entered a deal with SBC to provide high-speed equipment. -UAL announced an 18% reduction in officers in order to continue its cost cutting efforts. -First Health approved additional stock buybacks of 10 mln shares. Upgrades: -Vivendi received positive comments from S&P on its credit rating. -Hewlett Packard received positive comments from Lehman. -Western Wireless was upgraded to buy from hold at Wachovia. -Ashland was upgraded to outperform from neutral at CSFB. Negative: -Disney cut its Q1 guidance after its movie Treasure Planet flops. Said FY02 EPS will be 60c/sh vs. 63c/sh previously guided. Also said the reduced estimates will hurt Q1 EPS by 1c/sh. -HP lowered its sales forecast to 2%-4% from 4%-6% given in previous guidance. Company said they see savings one year ahead of schedule. Said they achieved $2.4B so far and expect to achieve $3.0B in cost cuts in FY03. HP said they will not boost their forecast. -FirstEnergy lowered its FY03 guidance to $3.35-$3.55 from $3.70-$3.90 previously. Market expectations are $3.50/sh. -Integrated Devices lowered its Q3 pro forma loss guidance to 17c-21c/sh vs. previous guidance for a loss of 5c-7c/sh. Revenues were guided to a 12%-14% decline vs. 5%-7% decline previously. -Tenet Healthcare guided lower full-year EPS to $2.38-$2.78 vs. $2.86/sh consensus. -Finisar Q2 loss was -9c/sh vs. -8c/sh consensus. -Cypress Semiconductor cut its Q4 loss outlook. -Bristol-Myers did not raise its dividend which was the first time in 30 years. Downgrades: -Semiconductor capital equipment sector was downgraded at Morgan Stanley. -Expedia and Hotels.com were downgraded at Salomon. -Nationwide’s debt was downgraded to A3 at Moody’s. -AOL was downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley. -Capital One was downgraded to buy at UBS. -Foundry Networks was downgraded to hold at Deutsche Bank. -Juniper Networks was downgraded to sell at Deutsche Bank. -Oil services stocks were downgraded at Lehman. Names were BJS, HAL, SII. Company upgraded SLB. -Pepsi Bottling was downgraded to hold from buy at UBS. Neutral: -JD Edwards Q4 EPS was 13c/sh vs. 11c/sh consensus. Revenues were $247.2M vs. $244.0M consensus. Company warned that Q1 EPS would be around 3c/sh vs. 4c/sh consensus.