Positivo e Negativo a New York

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Friday August 30th 7:56--Midwest Express Flight Attendants plan to walk out after contract talks broke off. 7:48--A Palestinian leader is said to call for a truce with Israel. 7:30--July personal income was unchanged vs. +0.3% expected. PCE was +1.0% vs. +0.8% expected. June income was revised to +0.7% from +0.6%. Spending was unrevised at +0.5%. The numbers are neutral for the markets. 7:25--Siebel Systems is exchanging its employee’s worthless stock options. Any employee option priced at $40 or more can be exchanged for other methods of payment. It will cost Siebel $68M. 7:18--Telecommunication stocks’ estimates were lowered at Goldman. Underweight position continued to be recommended. Names include BLS, VZ, and SBC. Favorite name to own is VZ. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -2.00, Nasdaq -4.00. -Japanese Q2 GDP was +0.5% vs. +0.2% expected. Industrial production was -0.4% vs. +0.7% expected. A new calculation method was blamed for difficulty in interpreting the GDP number. Nikkei was -0.2%. -Bonds up based on stock market weakness and market expectations for slow US economic growth. Positive: - Upgrades: -Allmerica was upgraded to buy from neutral at Salomon. -PolyOne was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Goldman. Negative: -Novellus said they see Q3 EPS of break even vs. +2c/sh previous guidance. Market consensus is 10c/sh. -Sun Micro said they see no improvement in IT spending. Said revenue would be near the lower end of previous guidance. -BellSouth cut its profit forecast for the full-year. Now sees $2.06-$2.13/sh vs. $2.13/sh consensus. Cited softness in wireless revenues. -Delta is offering a Florida fare sale. Downgrades: -Merrill Lynch downgraded semiconductor sector. Individual names were AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, and NVLS. -Hollywood Casino was downgraded to market perform at Bank of America. -Pinnacle Entertainment was downgraded to market perform at Bank of America. -Wild Oats was downgraded to sell at Merrill Lynch. -Cytec was downgraded to outperform from recommended list at Goldman. Neutral: -Flextronics affirmed Q2 profit expectations. -Integrated Devices affirmed earnings expectations for Q2. -Ball Corp. is acquiring beverage can maker Schmalbach-Lubeca for $890M.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Thursday August 29th 7:58--PetSmart Q2 EPS was 15c/sh vs. 14c/sh consensus. 2002 estimates were raised to 70c-72c/sh vs. 68c/sh consensus. 7:57--TRW won a $119M air force weather system contract. 7:55--Kroger was downgraded to market perform at JP Morgan. 7:50--Pakistani President Musharaff has added himself to the growing list of foreign leaders to warn the U.S. against striking Iraq. 7:37--Nassda was downgraded to hold at UBS. 7:30--The GDP number looks to be largely neutral for the markets. Initial claims, however, will offer support to the credit markets and pressure to the stock markets. 7:30--Q2 GDP was un-revised at +1.1%. Real Final Sales were revised to -0.3% from -0.1%. 7:30--Initial Claims +8K to 403K vs. 385K expected. Last week was revised to 395K from 389K previously. 7:19--Dillard’s Q2 EPS was 15c/sh vs. 14c/sh consensus. 7:16--Cadence Design was downgraded to hold at UBS. 7:15--Finish Line revised its Q2 financial outlook lower as it said it is seeing significant margin pressure. Sees Q2 EPS of 34c-36c/sh vs. 47c/sh. Said they see Q3 loss of 11c-13c/sh vs. -8c/sh. 7:13--Chico’s FAS Q2 EPS was 19c/sh which was as expected. 7:10--Stocks are: S&P -2.00, Nasdaq -5.00. -Dollar down again on further concern about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery. -Bonds up based on stock market weakness and market expectations for slow US economic growth. -Crude oil down only slightly after OPEC mentioned a very small increase in production. -Iraq was said to leave the door open to UN weapons inspectors. Positive: -Michael’s Stores Q2 EPS was 30c/sh vs. 18c/sh expected. guided Q3 sales to up 5%-6% vs. guidance of unchanged previously. -Campbell’s Soup reaffirmed FY02 expectations to be at or slightly above previous guidance of $1.30/sh. -Krispy Kreme Q2 EPS was 15c/sh vs. 14c/sh expected. Company raised its full-year outlook. -Zale Q2 EPS was 15c/sh vs. 14c/sh consensus. Company affirmed full-year expectations. -Deb Shops Q2 EPS was 52c/sh vs. 45c/sh consensus. Upgrades: -Pier 1 estimates were raised at Goldman. -Yahoo was upgraded at Merrill Lynch based on valuation. There were 30 mln shares sold yesterday by Japan’s Softbank which caused yesterday’s decline. -AMD estimates were raised at UBS. -ST Microelectronics was upgraded to over-weight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley. Negative: -Footstar warned that its Q3 EPS would be 55c-60c/sh vs. 97c/sh consensus. -US Air’s mechanics rejected the company’s bankruptcy restructuring package. -Roadway guided Q3 EPS down to 33c-36c/sh vs. 52c/sh. Said they see significantly better operating income, but revenue was slightly below plan. Downgrades: -GE’s 2003 estimates were cut at Lehman to $1.76 from $1.81. Rating of overweight was maintained. -DPL Energy’s Credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s. -Semiconductor sector sales growth forecast was lowered at UBS. Individual names downgraded were Novellus, LogicVision, Lam Research, and Newport. -Semiconductor sector was downgraded to in-line from attractive at Morgan Stanley. Micron was downgraded to underperform. -Synopsys was downgraded to hold from buy at UBS. Neutral: -TriQuint Semiconductor affirmed its Q3 revenue and earnings targets after the close yesterday in a mid-quarter update. Before yesterday’s close, however, the company said they are cutting 112 employees due to continued weakness in telecom spending.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Wednesday August 28th 7:47--HP’s EPS targets were lowered at UBS. 7:31--PepsiCo was downgraded to market perform from buy at Deutsche Bank. 7:30--Oracle estimates were raised at Wells Fargo. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -5.00, Nasdaq -13.00. -Euro down after German IFO business confidence was 88.8 vs. 89.9. -Crude oil down slightly after some OPEC officials have indicated that the price of oil is too high. Other officials indicated that the current price is fair. -Bonds up based on stock market weakness and market expectations for slow US economic growth. Positive: -HP Q3 EPS was 14c/sh which was as expected. Revenues were light at $16.536B vs. $16.823B expected. Company affirmed Q4 EPS of 22c/sh and revenues of $17.4B. -H&R Block Q1 pro forma EPS was 1c/sh vs. -10c/sh consensus. Revenues were $431.4M vs. $389.6M expected. Company also raised FY03 guidance to 2.80-3.00 from 2.60-2.75. -Amgen won approval to sell its cancer-related drugs Aranesp and Neulasta in Europe. -Medicis Q4 EPS was 55c/sh vs. 52c/sh consensus. Company affirmed forward guidance. -Coinstar disputed yesterday’s negative comments in “Off Wall Street.” Company affirmed outlook. -NeoWare Systems Q4 EPS was 13c/sh vs. 9c/sh consensus. -Jabil Circuit entered a manufacturing agreement with Phillips. Upgrades: -Merck’s price target was raised at Lehman. -Sun Microsystems received positive comments from Lehman. Said Q1 is tracking in line with expectations. Company received negative comments from Goldman. Negative: -Nortel warned that Q3 revenues would fall 10% sequentially vs. previous guidance for an increase of 10%. Company said they will cut more jobs. -Mandalay Resorts Q2 EPS was 51c/sh vs. 52c/sh consensus. Revenues were light at $625.9M vs. $640.2M expected. -Semtech Q2 EPS was 14c/sh which was as expected. Company guided Q3 to 14c/sh, which is a penny below expectations. Company said it is in talks to resolve a customer dispute which could cost $42M-$115M. -Sigma-Aldrich lowered its Q3 & Q4 outlooks by 1c/sh. -Qwest’s debt rating was downgraded at S&P. -Boeing’s union said that the latest contract offer was unacceptable. The union will vote on the contract tomorrow. Downgrades: -Intersil received cautious comments from UBS. -Sun Microsystems received negative comments from Goldman, after receiving positive comments from Lehman. -Best Buy received cautious comments from Goldman Sachs. Neutral: -Altera affirmed their Q3 guidance, saying that sales would be flat-to-higher from the prior quarter. Company made a scheduled mid-quarter update. -Washington Mutual acquired the U.S. mortgage unit of National Australia Bank for $1.3B. -Office Depot Q3 EPS was as expected. The company affirmed earnings targets.

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Tuesday August 27th 8:03--Earnings estimates for Taiwan Semiconductor and United Microelectronics were cut at Prudential. 8:01--Medimmune is trading slightly higher after it provided additional data to the FDA regarding its Flumist product. 8:00--HealthSouth will spin off its surgery center division. 7:57--Lehman said that airline Chapter 11 fears are overblown. 7:47--Century Aluminum was downgraded to neutral at Merrill Lynch. 7:45--In Focus was downgraded to neutral from buy at Salomon. 7:43--Finisar was downgraded to sector perform from outperform at CIBC. 7:35--Cole National Q2 EPS was 16c/sh vs. 15c/sh expected. 7:30--July durable goods +8.7% vs. +1.4% expected. Largest increase in 24 years. Orders ex-trans +3.9%. Orders ex-defense +7.3%. Non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft +8.1%. June orders were revised to -4.5% from -4.1% initially. 7:26--Morgan Stanley’s Wien said that stocks are attractively valued. Said he maintains a bullish stance although he does not expect a steady uptrend week after week. 7:24--JDSU received positive comments from Sanford Bernstein, which said that JDSU will benefit from the drop-off in optical components players. 7:22--UBS Warburg cut estimates for Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Schwab. 7:20--ADM was downgraded to neutral from buy at Salomon. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P -5.00, Nasdaq -12.00. -Dollar seeing a broad-based decline based on new concerns following yesterday’s comments by Vice Pres. Cheney. Cheney yesterday highlighted the risks of not attacking Iraq. -Nikkei closed -1.6%. Positive: -Toll Brothers Q2 EPS was 70c/sh vs. 65c/sh expected. Revenues were $580.7M vs. $567.9M expected. -Stein Mart Q2 EPS was 7c/sh which was as expected. Company guided Q3 loss to -5c/sh which is as expected. Company guided Q4 EPS to 35c/sh vs. no expectations. Company said August sales were ahead of plan. -Regis Q4 EPS was 45c/sh vs. 43c/sh consensus. Company revised their FY03 outlook higher. -Bellagio will undergo a $375M expansion at its Las Vegas Hotel. -Immunogen okayed a 10% buyback, or 4.1 mln shares. -Quiksilver guided Q3 EPS to 32c-33c/sh vs. 29c/sh expected. Company said they were comfortable with at least $1.42/sh vs. $1.40/sh consensus. -Johnson & Johnson was informed that the government would not intervene in Puerto Rico case. -TRW is in talks to sell its auto parts unit for $5B. Upgrades: - Negative: -Target said that August sales will be slightly below their expectations of a 2%-4% rise. -Intel CEO said he was cautious on holiday PC pickup. -Salomon acknowledged that it gave thousands of shares of hot IPO’s to Worldcom execs. The statement was made in a disclosure to the House Financial Services Committee. Downgrades: -Alcoa estimates were reduced at Merrill Lynch. -Target, Costco, Barnes & Noble, and BJ’s Wholesale were downgraded to neutral at Merrill Lynch. -Shopko, Nordstrom, and Dollar Tree were downgraded to reduce at Merrill Lynch. -UTStarcom was downgraded to neutral at Salomon. Neutral: -

Ultimi dati aggiornati riassuntivi sulla situazione delle aziende americane in termini di utili. Come noto gli utili dal 2002 al 2002 si sono dimezzati (sono calati del 50% in aggregato, il più grosso calo % dagli anni 30. Dovuto soprattutto al fatto che nel 1998-1999 erano stati gonfiati per la tecnologia e le telecom) Dall'inizio del trimestre, cioè dal 1 luglio (in america si va per 4 trimestri) gli utili attesi per il TERZO TRIMESTRE erano stimati aumentare del +16.6%. Ora che il trimestre è quasi arrivato le stime sono già state ridotte, per un aumento del + 11.4%. Gli utili attesi per il QUARTO TRIMESTRE dovevano essere +34.8% e per ora l'aumento stimato è + 29.9%. Anche qua l'errore di stima è per eccesso come succede quasi sempre e il calo è significativo. Resta che si stima un +30% di aumento degli utili entro dicembre 2002. Quindi da una parte le stime vengono riviste in basso, ma dall'altra i confronti con l'anno precedente sono ancora buoni. Sulla base di questi numeri First Call stima il mercato ancora sottovalutato (di un 27% circa). ---------------------------------------------------- So far, third-quarter preannouncements continue to run more negative than in recent quarters (a definite negative per Chuck); The "greater concern" per Chuck is the continuing reduction of earnings estimates for the third quarter and fourth quarter. Since the beginning of the quarter, expected third-quarter 2002 earnings growth has declined 16.6% to 11.4% and for fourth-quarter 2002, earnings estimates have been slashed from 34.8% to 29.9%, or 4.9 percentage points since July 1. Hill considers this alarming, and "far more than the normal trimming." However, the First Call valuation model, based upon the forward fourth-quarter earnings and the "normalized earnings model" (which accounts for earnings cyclicality and estimates trend-line earnings for the S&P 500), considers the market either 27% undervalued or fairly valued, depending upon which model you use. To conclude, with the most recent expensing of stock options, the changes to the S&P 500 in late June, the adoption of FASB 142 (goodwill) has made to apples-to-apples comparisons of year-over-year earnings growth a muddled picture. But the forward estimates coming down -- a trend in evidence since late 2000 -- indicates no change in trend to one of the fundamental pillars for the equity market. Modificato da - gz on 8/26/2002 19:4:56

Aggiorniamo il commento finanziario americano migliore che abbiamo: Monday August 26th 7:43--Clear Channel was upgraded to outperform at RBC Capital Market7:41--Amazon.com has lowered its free shipping threshold to $25 from $49 due to positive results attained two months ago when it lowered the threshold to $49 from $99. 7:37--Yahoo and SBC’s DSL venture received negative comments from WR Hambrecht. Said the product launch is unlikely to proceed as planned. 7:26--Hewlett-Packard received negative comments from Bank of America. B of A thinks revenue will be below expectations when it is reported tomorrow. 7:24--Ciena was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Soundview. 7:18--Wal-Mart said its August same-store sales will be at the lower end of its 4%-6% expectations. 7:15--Stocks are: S&P +5.00, Nasdaq +9.00. -Dollar recovering this morning based on rebound in US stock market. There is a bank holiday in the UK. -Bonds down this morning also based on the stock market rebound. -Manpower Inc. survey of hiring intentions show that employers plan to hire fewer workers in Q4--24% vs. 27% in Q3. Positive: -Hershey Foods will receive a $11.5B bid from Nestle according to USA Today. Rival bids are expected. -TRW won a $2.9B polar satellite contract. Contract could be worth as much as $4.5B over 16 yr period. -Roxio will repurchase up to 10% of its stock. -Accredo Health 32c/sh vs. 29c/sh expected. Company affirmed full-year expectations. -Harris will boost its quarterly dividend to 8c/sh vs. 5c/sh previously. Upgrades: -Lucent received positive comments from Deutsche Bank. -Canadian Pacific was upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley. -TXU was upgraded at Lehman. Negative: -Bebe Stores lowered its outlook for Q1. -Ultimate Electronics Q2 EPS was 6c/sh which was as expected. However, company indicated that Q3 EPS would be 10c-12c/sh vs. 13c/sh consensus. -Qwest will sell $1B in junk bonds to help facilitate its $7B sale of its yellow pages division. -Canadian GM, Ford, & Chrysler 46,400 workers voted to strike if needed ahead of Sept deadline. -Boeing machinists rejected the latest contract presented to them. Downgrades: -UPS, Burlington Northern, and Kansas City Southern were downgraded at Morgan Stanley. -The hotel industry recovery will be delayed until 2004 according to WSJ. -Fairchild Semiconductor was downgraded to attractive from buy at Bear Stearns. Neutral: -Lucent will sell its 10.2 mln share holdings of Commscope