Cosa ha detto di così negativo Yahoo ? - gz
By: GZ on Giovedì 08 Luglio 2004 12:17
Fino a quando ieri sera alle 22:30 Yahoo non ha annunciato i risultati gli indici erano circa pari e poi sono affondati. Cosa ha detto di così negativo da portare giù il nasdaq (assieme a Siebel e Bmc) ?
Leggendo il resoconto della conference call la delusione si concentra nel fatto che il fatturato per il prossimo trimestre è stato indicato in media di 630 milioni e il mercato si attendeva almeno 650 milioni. Non sembra una cosa drammatica di per sè visto che ha margini del 40%, come quelli di TIM ad esempio, ma cresce del +40% al momento (mentre Tim cresce del 3 o 4%)
Il problema è che da un minimo di 5 dollari due anni fa ^Yahoo#^ era salita a 33 dollari e costava fino a ieri quasi 50 miliardi di dollari di capitalizzazione con 500 milioni di utile (P/E di 100). Ora costa 28.8 e 43 miliardi di capitalizzazione ed è solo una questione di percezione, potrebbe benissimo costare anche 20 dollari
Inoltre quando c'è qualche delusione come questa ci si ricorda che se uno contasse le stock options come spese l'utile di Yahoo scomparirebbe perchè il valore delle options è di circa 400 milioni distribuiti a manager e dipendenti
Jay Somaney analyzes the Yahoo! earnings call
Yahoo! Disappoints, Yet Meets and Raises Guidance
7/7/04 6:10 PM EDT
The call is over. It's disappointing that the company just met estimates but c'est la vie. Given the lofty valuations afforded by the market, I can certainly understand this afternoon's reaction. At midpoints, the company did raise guidance on several metrics for full-year 2004.
I don't think this one stays with a handle for too long. Although, that techland whoosh is definitely coming tomorrow, no?
Q: Have your sales and marketing numbers declined and how will it track going forward?
A: It was 31% rounded in both quarters. Going forward it will be in that range.
Q: How is Yahoo! Plus doing?
A: Yahoo! Plus (SBC-YHOO, BT-YHOO and soon Rogers-YHOO) is doing well, but we remained focused on our partnerships.
Q:Are you assuming constant cash tax rates in the cash flow and free cash flow numbers.
A: Yes, we are.
Q: Can you talk about secular trends in sponsored search? What will growth rates be? Will branded ad growth rates exceed sponsored search?
A: Both have been very strong and we think both will grow strongly growing forward. The biggest step up in growth comes in Q4 and Q1. Both are brilliant for us and both have real upside to them.
Q: Can you talk about pricing in sponsored search and its environment for sponsored search?
A: Sponsored search pricing trends were up double digits last quarter and this quarter. Pricing is seeing growth as well. We think pricing will begin to rise. Our sales channels are very aggressive in getting new business as new markets open up for us.
Q: Given the raise in the EBITDA guidance, where is it coming from?
A: Strong growth in ads, and our operating flow-through is going well. We will exit the year with overall margins between 38% and 40%.
Q: Did currency help?
A: Yes, about $5 million but the growth numbers were without foreign exchange and acquisitions. (Again, this is in organic growth.)
Q: How did Overture business perform?
A: Overall, Overture business is going very well and is a bit ahead of our estimates.
Q: Any customers that you lost?
Q: How is Overture doing?
A: Very well, they are adding business despite the seasonal softness in the second quarter.
Q: How do we recognize the first quarter's beat with an in-line number this quarter?
A: We grew revenue in the first quarter by 41%, year over year, but were actually higher this quarter at 42%, year over year. The growth is still spectacular and a bit higher than we had thought. (They are talking about organic growth comparisons.)
The company is raising guidance for the full year to revenue of between $2.455 billion to $2.535 billion. Cash flow will be between $945 million to $995 million, which is higher than what analysts had factored in.
Free cash flow is being raised to $730 million and $780 million. Capital expenditures will be between $190 million and $215 million.
Decker said that there is much upside to the current guidance. (Hmmm ... not quite sure what to make of that statement from Sue. lol)
The company's headcount was just over 6,500 employees, including the recent acquistion-related Net additions. ARP Employee was $385k. That statistic will continue to improve modestly in 2004.
The third quarter is seasonally slow in the international area for Yahoo!, but it will pick up again in the December quarter, according to CFO Decker.
Revenue will be between $610 million and $650 million. Organic revenue growth will be between 30% to 36%.
The company's cash is at $2.650 billion at the end of the quarter. The company says that revenue is increasing at a faster pace than its costs are. Organic revenue growth was 42% year over year -- over the company's internal projections of 30% organic growth.
Global marketing revenue was up 113% and organic growth in that sector was 43%.
Fee revenue was up 49% year over year.
CEO Semel is saying that its brand advertising business is very strong and Yahoo! is rapidly gaining mindshare.
Looking at guidance, investors should keep in mind that the new revised guidance is still within Street expectations and operating income will actually be higher in September by between $0 and $25 million.
The company says that its international opportunities are tremendous and that the global initiatives are paying off. International revenue grew 316% year over year and profitability was almost five times that of year-ago profit levels.
The company said that its product launches for the second half are very strong and will encompass new offerings in broadband, music and search.
Its unique user count is at 300 million. Active registered users are at 146 million.
Unique paying relations were 6.4 million.
The company says that search is strong and that the Chinese search engine is seeing an "extraordinary" response in the two weeks since its launch.
Not good at all.
However, it could be an overreaction here given the shellacking the stock is taking.
So, Yahoo! blows it and is taking the rest of the Net sector down with it. Look for a whoosh down in Netland tomorrow.
The company is in line with EPS estimates and has a teeny beat on revenues.
The company is guiding lower for September.
The new range is revenue of $610 million to $650 million and OI to the $230 million to $255 million range.