Report di Fred Hickey - gz
By: GZ on Giovedì 25 Luglio 2002 20:53
questo è il riassunto di quello che dice Fred Hickey, "The High-Tech Strategist", che è riconosciuto come forse il migliore esperto per i titoli tecnologici .
E' ancora negativo specie sui semiconduttori che restano in media sopra il 50% della valutazione media degli ultimi 20 anni in termini di utile/ricavi.
Hickey da qualche speranza solo a alcuni titoli qui sotto
Fred Hickey, editor of The High-Tech Strategist. Hickey first said that tech stocks had become overpriced in the mid-1990s and sold the last of his long positions in 1998. In his July 4 letter, he acknowledges that the declines of the last four months have taken the group closer to an attractive price level--but says that still have a way yet to drop. For months he’s warned that Intel and IBM, among others, were headed further down, and predicted that the second quarter reports for both would be very disappointing—as will the third and fourth quarters.
Because the slowdown in the PC market shows no sign of abating, Intel will have to cut production and will experience a further margin squeeze. Inventories have been mounting at many companies because consumer markets have been weak, even as corporate capital spending is still being cut back. June sales at most semiconductor companies were shockingly slow. Using analyst estimates for 2003 (which he regards as very optimistic) Hickey still finds the semiconductor companies comprising the SOX index as more than 50% overvalued on a price-to-sales basis, based on the index’s historical ten- year price-to-sales ratio for 1989 through1998.
PCs still represent the biggest end market for the semiconductor industry, while the third-biggest end markets for semiconductors are cell phones and related networking equipment, and those markets are similarly troubled. All this spells bad news for the semiconductor equipment makers. Many company managements will be taking down their third quarter numbers. Hickey also describes the IT services market as terrible. So despite the increase in some of the fear gauges, he’d continue to stand aside while acknowledging that he’s keeping an eye an ^AMD#^, ^Lawson Software#^, ^IBM#^, Edwards ^Compuware#^, ^Comverse Tech#^, ^Amdocs#^ and ^Red Hat#^.
Edited by - gz on 7/25/2002 22:46:1