Tony Saliba Opzioni Put - gz
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By: GZ on Venerdì 20 Settembre 2002 18:42
Dato che oggi sono infortunato (nel senso che l'attrezzatura è giù) come riempitivo copio qui il report di oggi di uno dei "market Wizards" (vedi la sezione del sito dove abbiamo copiato diverse interviste) Tony Saliba il mago delle PUT
Saliba è molto orso e non fa altro che raccomandare combinazioni di put sui titoli americani, notare in particolare su Amgen ora
Si vede dal report che usa sempre combinazioni di put,
ad es la Put 30 comprata e la put 25 venduta
oppure la ottobre comprata e la novembre venduta
raramente le put "nude"
-------------- da Tony Saliba Options ----------------
09/20/02 Open
A Bounce (Sell It!)
It looks as though we are going to start triple-witching day with a slight bounce on the back of some good news from Qualcomm (QCOM) which said yesterday that it expected ship 20 million chis this quarter, up from previous estimates of 18 to 19 million. In Europe, where a triple-witching day is already under way, the market has been very volatile with rumors of a trading error in the FTSE 100 futures that caused a nearly 7% jump in the price of the index from the lows at one point. Intra-market arbitrageurs took the rest of Europe higher with it, and I'm sure we'll hear more about this trade as the day wears on.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 is currently up 98.60 points or 1.46%, the DAX is higher by 70.94 or 2.35%, and the CAC 40 is up 16.92 points or .58%. In Asia, the Nikkei dropped 188.54 points or 1.95%, and the Hang Seng fell 99.57 points or 1.06%. Currently, DJI futures are 52.0 better, the S&P futures are 7.80 higher, and the Nasdaq 100 futures are 11.50 higher. Interest rate futures are lower, the dollar is higher, and crude oil is roughly unchanged as is gold.
With that in mind, and given the explosion back up in the various volatility indicators, we are preparing to gradually take some profits, please see the recommendations below. Although some of our bearish positions are just now making some money (I was too early, as usual), we have to be ready with profit targets, because as you may remember from late July, when redemptions occur, they are violent and quick, and we must have our orders in the market ahead of time.
Watch for easing chatter to surface ahead of next Tuesday's FOMC meeting. Also, keep your eyes open for intervention. As long as we are imitating Japan, we might as well go all the way and begin manipulating stock prices. Expiration is the best time to do it. The best way to detect intervention is by watching the currency and bond markets. If you see the dollar suddenly strengthening, or interest rate futures suddenly collapsing, there is probably some sort of gov. sponsored program about to be launched.
Volatility
Well, I might be made a liar on my prediction that we have seen the highs for this year in volatility. Yesterday the VIX exploded up to 46.16, a 5.27 point gain, the VXN rose 3.43 to 62.76, and the QQV was up 2.64 to 53.63. These are new highs for the month of September, and we are set to inspect the August highs.
Update: Thursday (09 /19/ 02)
Nothing today.
New Recommendations:
AMGN - Sell half of the January 30 /40 put spread at $5.00.
CCU - Bid $1.50 for another 25% of the January 40 calls.
WAG - Sell the January 35 puts at $4.00.
Working Orders (Old Recommendations):
AHC - Liquidate the October 65 / 70 put spread at $3.00, and use a $71.00 closing only stop.
BP - Buy the January / October 40 put calendar spread (buy the January 40 put, sell the October 40 put) for $1.15 (25%).
MMM- Still working a $5.00 offer on another 25% of our October 110 /120 put spreads, now us a $122.50 closing only stop.
Recap of open trades:
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Long-term
Reverse Collars:
CIEN - Long the January 2.5 / 5 reverse collar at $.40 (25%).
Buy-writes:
HAL -long the January 15 buy-write at $12.05 (100%).
Proxy buy-writes:
DYN - long the January 15 calls at $3.20 - left over from proxy buy-write (50%). Left for dead.
Complex Strategies:
None
Directional Positions:
AMGN - long the January 30 /40 put spread at $2.50 (50%).
BAC - Long the January 50 / 60 put spread at an average price of $2.50 (75%).
IBM - Long the January 50 /60 put spread at $2.00 (50%).
KSS - Long the January 60 /70 put spread at $3.00 (25%).
S- Long the January 35 /45 put spread at $3.00 (25%).
TGT- Long the January 35 puts at $2.50 (25%).
WAG - Long the January 35 puts at $2.40 (25%).
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Short-term
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Call Positions:
CCU (2) - Long the January 40 calls at $2.50 (25%).
Call Spread Positions:
DJX - Long the September 86 / 90 1:2 ratioed call spread at $.50 (50%).
QQQ - Long the September 23 / 26 1:2 ratioed call spread at $.50 (50%).
Put Positions:
None
Spread Positions:
AHC - Long the October 65 / 70 put spread at $1.50 (25%).
C - Long the December / September 30 put calendar spread at $.975(50%). Sold half at $2.20 on 9/16/02.
C - Long the January / September 30 put calendar spread at $1.20(50%). Sold half at $2.45 on 9/16/02.
MMM - Long the October 110 / 120 put spread at an average price of $2.65 (100%).
Sold 25% at $4.00 on 9/17/02.
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Stops
AHC - $71.00 stop, close only.
MMM- $122.50 stop, close only.