Sintesi del Crash

 

  By: GZ on Martedì 11 Gennaio 2011 00:06

Crash della borsa del BanglaDesh stanotte, -9.3% prima che chiudessero le contrattazioni di autorità, la peggiore perdita in 50 anni (da quando esiste), polizia in assetto di guerra a difendere la borsa da dimostrazioni violente di investitori (l'indice ha perso un -28% dal massimo di 30 giorni fa) (^qui un video#http://www.businessinsider.com/bangladesh-riots-2011-1^) A parte il Bangladesh, l'India, indice Sensex qui sotto in fondo nel grafico, sembra aver fatto il top dopo che il governo ha iniziato ad alzare i tassi perchè l'inflazione sta salendo, ieri -4%, ha perso -10% da capodanno Venerdì sera Bernanke ha ripetuto che il beneficio principale della politica di stampare moneta della FED è di far salire i mercati finanziari. Anche in Bangladesh sembra il governo pompasse artificialmente la borsa ------------ ...Monirul Islam, an investor attending the protests, told the AFP news agency: "I lost $70,000 dollars. This is insane - my whole savings are gone." "I poured all my money into the Dhaka stock exchange," Humayum Kabir, another Bangladeshi investor, said...^"The finance minister lured us into the stock market, he told us it was safe, but now we have lost everything. They artificially jacked up the prices of junk shares and now our savings have vanished," Kabir said#http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2011/01/201111084516632519.html^. The central bank had raised banks' cash requirement ratio from 5.5 per cent to 6 per cent, effective December 15, to rein in on inflation and to curb runaway credit flow, especially to the volatile capital markets. Call money market rates also hit a record high last month. ^Some banks have invested 75 per cent of their deposits in the stock market....#http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2011/01/201111084516632519.html^ against a ceiling of 10 per cent and had been told to get back under the limit by December 30--------------------

 

  By: lanci on Giovedì 12 Settembre 2002 16:20

che ne dite invece di un buon commercialista? Lanci

 

  By: DOTT JOSE on Giovedì 12 Settembre 2002 13:04

questo lo sapevo..farsi spedire a casa un libro su come aprire conti offshore non e raccomandabile.. magari provo con una casella postale

 

  By: GZ on Giovedì 12 Settembre 2002 12:32

stia attento che l'FBI ad esempio e forse anche in europa analoghe polizie tengono sotto controllo e intercettano le telefonate e le comunicazioni di questi che si fanno pubblicità sui siti o sui giornali. E' molto pericoloso rivolgersi alle organizzazioni che offrono conti offshore senza conoscerli personalmente. Si rischia di ritrovarsi coinvolti assieme a gente che ricicla denaro sporco o sospettata di crimini. In ogni caso so per certo che quelli basati in america sono tutti sotto sorveglianza dell'FBI. La gente con disponibilità va direttamente da Merril Lynch per evitare guai Modificato da - gz on 9/12/2002 10:36:16

 

  By: DOTT JOSE on Giovedì 12 Settembre 2002 12:10

ma c'e bisogno di spendere 15000 euro imparare come aprire conti all estero su google cercano "offshore accounts o banking" si trovano migliaia di links e ti spedisocno pure i manuali. che possono dirti di + in un corso?

 

  By: GZ on Mercoledì 11 Settembre 2002 21:10

per chi voglia risparmiare i 40 50 dollari del libro la soluzione ideale indicata da Prechter è l'ORO e per i veramente ricchi invece se leggete in fondo si propongono seminari da 15 mila $ per spiegare come fare conti esteri e simili

 

  By: gianlini on Mercoledì 11 Settembre 2002 21:06

e qui usemlab si arrabbia: come i treasury safe heaven?? ma non è il niente del niente...??

 

  By: xxxxxx on Mercoledì 11 Settembre 2002 20:57

Concordo con tutto quello che è scritto. Ma non parla solo di banche svizzere: The only way to get safe is to put your money either in a bank that has extremely high liquidity, and there are a few in the world, a few that exist only to safeguard your money. Or, and I think this would be the second best solution, is to take it out of the banking system and, at least for the time being, lend it directly to the U. S. government by buying treasury bills. Mi sembra che dica di mettere il denaro o in una banca sicura (e ce ne sono poche), oppure di darli direttamente al governo comprando titoli del tesoro. Mmmmmm... come mai i treasury sono ai max degli ultimi quarant'anni?

Il ragionamento catastrofico: riassunto - ebreo errante  

  By: ebreo errante on Mercoledì 11 Settembre 2002 20:21

Riassumo il ragionamento di Prechter : l'alto livello di indebitamento dei privati rende difficile un forte incremento dei consumi e quindi l'economia tende a ristagnare. Bassi consumi portano a bassi investimenti e quindi ad un'ulteriore riduzione della domanda aggregata, siccome offerta > domanda i prezzi scendono . Poi si innesca un circolo vizioso tra questi fattori che porta alla deflazione . Sono d'accordo sulla prima parte del ragionamento, cioè che i tassi di crescita dell'economia degli anni '90 ce li possiamo scordare. Non sono affatto convinto però che questo porterà alla deflazione. Infatti il meccanismo per cui quando l'offerta supera la domanda i prezzi scendono è vero solo se ipotizziamo come costante la massa monetaria . Ma nella realtà la massa monetaria non è affatto costante, anzi tende ad aumentare perchè la Fed ha il potere di stampare tutti i dollari che vuole . Tutti sappiamo che l'aumento della massa monetaria ha un effetto inflattivo . Quindi ci sono contemporaneamente 2 TENDENZE CONTRAPPOSTE : da una parte il calo della domanda aggregata spinge verso la DEFLAZIONE, dall'altra l'aumento della moneta in circolazione spinge verso l'INFLAZIONE. Siccome la Fed non ha vincoli nell'incrementare la massa monetaria ritengo che la tendenza inflattiva sarà quella che prevarrà . Alla base delle previsioni apocalittiche di Prechter c'è la memoria storica della deflazione seguita alla crisi del '29 . Allora però esisteva ancora il sistema aureo quindi la Fed non poteva stampare tutta la moneta che voleva . La crisi allora si estese quindi perchè ci fu la corsa a ritirare i propri depositi e vennero lasciate fallire molte banche. Ma la storia oggi non potrebbe ripetersi nello stesso modo, perchè se ci fosse una corsa agli sportelli per ritirare i contanti la Fed semplicemente rifornirebbe di altro contante le banche, fine della storia . In Giappone ad es. c'è la deflazione da 12 anni ma anche lì nessuna corsa agli sportelli ed è lecito pensare che se la banca centrale aumentasse gli yen in circolazione anche i prezzi risalirebbero . In Argentina c'è stata un pò di deflazione ma era artificialmente causata dall'aggancio del peso al $, infatti appena è stato lasciato fluttuare è riscoppiata l'inflazione. Quindi mi aspetto stagnazione + inflazione = stagflazione come negli anni 70 . Come si sono comportati prezzi degli immobili e delle azioni negli anni '70 ? Gli immobili hanno conservato in termini reali il loro valore le azioni invece sono scese . Leeb in "Defying the market" spiega bene perchè solo le small cap siano salite, ve lo consiglio .

 

  By: DOTT JOSE on Mercoledì 11 Settembre 2002 20:14

quali sono le banche svizzere quotate? conosco solo il credit suisse.. ubs,baer, sarasin,vontobel.. e poi ?

 

  By: gianlini on Mercoledì 11 Settembre 2002 19:47

In sostanza le banche svizzere possono permettersi di non prestare molti dei soldi che hanno in deposito perchè riescono a farsi pagare molto bene il diritto di custodia. Pertanto sono molto più sicure e difficilmente falliranno.

 

  By: framilk on Mercoledì 11 Settembre 2002 19:29

Questo signore qui dice che "falliranno tutte le banche americane", io aggiungo che a questo punto anche quelle europee e giapponesi in quella ipotesi non avrebbero molte opportunità. Ma poi non capisco perchè solo poche banche svizzere e deve spiegare a questo punto se succedesse una cosa del genere a cosa servirebbe conservare denaro??? Non dico che non può succedere (perchè dopo eventi come 11/9 tutto è possibile), ma non capisco l'assurdità di dire dove andare a depositare la carta straccia. Vanno bene le visioni apocalittiche di ogni genere ma le soluzioni di alcuni personaggi sono alquanto ridicole ( della serie:"se tutto il pianeta muore per l'atomica e tu ti salvi, sei l'uomo più ricco del mondo, quindi inizia a scavare). Guarda caso il libro è stato lanciato in un contesto psicologico americano di per se bombardato da più fronti e guarda caso va pure a ruba! E si tanto per tirare su il morale...

Sintesi del Crash - gz  

  By: GZ on Mercoledì 11 Settembre 2002 18:39

Questa è una sintesi delle interviste che Bob Prechter ha tenuto di recente. Per chi si collegasse ora Prechter è stato negli anni 80 probabilmente il più influente con i suoi commenti di borsa avendo indovinato l'inizio esatto del mercato toro nel 1982 e il crash del 1987. Vendeva 30 mila del suo report nel mondo. Ha avuto un eclissi essendo andato negativo sulle borse nel 1994, ma ha insistito in modo coerente (o ostinato) che eravamo alla fine del ciclo iniziato DUE SECOLI FA che il crash in arrivo era così storico e epocale che non valeva la pena di fare altro che cominciare a proteggersi a tutti i costi. Come si vede leggendolo Prechter è ora al punto da offrire consigli su quali banche non falliranno e consiglia di evitare tutte le banche americane e usare solo alcune banche svizzere. Si tratta di un personaggio geniale che ha indovinato in modo incredibilmente esatto a volte e altre ha sbagliato completamente. Ma è ancora molto seguito e il suo libro sul crash è il best seller finanziario da due mesi in america. La cosa che mi impressiona sono questi seminari per spiegare in quali banche svizzere rifugiarsi per non essere travolti dal crollo delle banche mondiali che propone ------------------------------------------------------ Prechter has been doing a lot of interviews lately about the current market environment and his latest book, Conquer the Crash. The following excerpts are taken from four of Bob’s recent interviews with the following individuals: Robert Barker, Business Week; Jim Puplava, host of Financial Sense Newshour; Kathryn Welling of Weeden & Co. and John Dobosz, Forbes -------------- In your book you talk about depressions. When do depressions occur and what causes them? Well, a depression occurs when the economy contracts. That happens when there is decline in the demand for goods and services at current prices. In this case, we are facing exactly that sort of thing. Because when you have a situation where people can’t save, they’re spending more than they’re making, we know that they’re going to have to cut back on their spending eventually. When people are trying to pay off debts at a very high rate of interest and their income slips, which as we’ve been seeing unemployment has been edging up to new highs with each passing quarter, that means they’re going to do less spending as well. So I expect to see a decline in the demand for goods and services in this country. That is going to be the beginning of a depression. That’s why when I see these economists talking about these 3% and 5% growth rates for the economy in the 2nd half and then this miracle of corporate earnings going up 30% and 40%. You kind of wonder what are they looking at? I mean, do consumers go out and go into a –5% or –6% savings rate? I just don’t think that’s going to happen. I think most of that, although they would never admit it, is from hope. Because they say the only way the stock market can hold up – and the only way any of this debt can get paid off – is if corporate earnings start soaring and people’s incomes start soaring at some massive double-digit rate. So then now they’re saying, well I guess that’s what’s going to happen. I think the burden of debt is piled up so high that it’s not only impossible, but that is the reason why we need to be looking in the other direction. Isn’t there also a problem during the 90’s where many industrial companies – like IBM or General Electric – many of these companies morphed themselves into finance companies? They were making more money on finance than they were actually making things. Oh yeah. General Electric just really transformed itself from perhaps the premier manufacturing company in the world in the 1950’s and 60’s to what I call a house of cards right now. It’s all about manipulating credit, manipulating debt. They’re lending, they’re borrowing, they’re shifting money around, they’re shifting credit around. We put out a special chart on General Electric in the first couple days of October 2000. We said this Bull Market is over. It’s up 100 times from its low in 1974 and it’s over. It’s since been cut in half and I think it’s, frankly, just the beginning. They’re not Enron, but they have that type of financial company where, ultimately, the trend in investments and finance is going to be the trend in that company’s fortunes. It will be a slower decline than Enron and there’s certainly less in the way of accounting gimmicks, but they use them anyway and people have noticed it. I think it’s going to take a long time for them to return to a solid company that’s producing things that people really want. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hasn’t most of the world already experienced some degree of deflation in this cycle? The worldwide trend began on the last day of 1989 in Japan and slowly spread across the globe. Southeast Asia had its deflationary collapse in 1997-98. That’s not over, either. South America is beginning to go through that now: Argentina collapsed last year into deflation. Uruguay is in trouble now. And the United States and Europe together are the blue-chips of the world in terms of their economies. And they are peaking last. Asset allocation might be a bit tricky when the value of everything is falling. What do you do with your money during a deflation? Step one is to get out of all of the investments that have traditionally gone down during a deflation. The first one is the stock market. The second one is the real estate market. The third is the market for risky bonds—bonds that have been issued by debtors who are less than pristine in terms of their long-term ability to pay the interest and the principal. Those are the areas that most people are invested in and are dangerous today. Some people are over-invested in fringe areas like collectibles and commodities, which also go down in deflations. Number two: get into safe cash in a safe depository. I think there are two primary depositories for most Americans. They are Treasury bills in a Treasury-only money market fund. Another option is one of the safer banks. I also think that U.S. banks in general are not as safe as some jurisdictions in the world, notably Switzerland and Singapore, so if you’re really serious about safety, you need to investigate those areas. Number three is only for certain people—people who really feel that they are seasoned investors or speculators and who understand risk and are willing to take it. Those people have been cleaning up in this bear market by being invested in instruments that make money on the downside. The amazing alchemy of a bear market and a deflation is that if you’re positioned properly, you’re making money at the same time the money itself is going up in value. It’s a double whammy. You can make money if you’re invested in, say, the Rydex Ursa Fund, which goes up as stocks go down, or a market-neutral managed fund that’s split between a bullish and a bearish manager, both exercising his stock-picking ability. So you see a crash as imminent – is that the right word? I think we’re in one now, but we’re in the very early stages. The same thing is true of a depression. People say, well, we’re not in a depression, and there are no bread lines and all that. But those are symptoms of the end. And the time to understand what’s coming is closer to the beginning, and that’s where I think we are. How should people invest then? The main message I would like to get across is get safe. Be safe. If you talk to virtually anyone else out there today, you will get [a message] that is, in a nutshell: Rush out and take a huge risk. [Stocks are] risky in normal times, but when you have a historical view of valuation, it’s close to financial suicide to be putting your money into a bull market that has already run its course, that is one of the biggest in history in terms of overvaluing shares.... [You] should be in something that’s very unpopular right now – cash. Why is cash important in the midst of deflation or a depression: Well, cash is the only thing that goes up in value during a deflation. The reason is the credit which is considered by most people to be money, although it’s actually credit, begins to decrease and therefore the total amount of purchasing power in the economy is going down. Anytime money supply (and I’m using that term loosely to include the credit supply, contracts) there’s less of it, people can understand when the government creates money and the Fed creates credit, and there’s more and more of it, we get what we call inflation. And the value of the dollar or the purchasing unit goes down. Therefore, prices of goods go up and up and up. People are used to that. They have to realize that it can work in the other direction. When the total amount of money and credit contracts, the prices of goods will actually start falling and that makes each unit of money, each unit of money or credit that survived that is, worth more. The key is to be in something that will not be destroyed. If you owned a bond of a corporation or a municipal government that defaults, you’re at zero. But, if you have money that does not disappear, then suddenly you have more buying power than you did before. And a lot of my book is to steer people into areas where they will be able to put their cash and keep it safe. And believe me, there aren’t many places in the world. A lot of places that people think their money is safe are anything but. Let’s talk about the positive side of all of this. If the crash takes place, which I believe is coming and the depression that follows it, those who are liquid are going to have some of the best buying opportunities of a lifetime. I can think of, Bob, the story of Warren Buffett’s 1968 meeting in La Jolla, California with Ben Graham. Ben Graham lost half his clients’ money during the stock market crash. They were looking at the stock market in the late 60’s and basically Ben told him to get out. Buffett went back, disbanded his partnership and stayed in cash. But when the ’73/’74 Bear Market came, he loaded up and bought, I think, what was it, 10% or 20% of the Washington Post for $10 million. He had the buying opportunity of a lifetime and much of the Buffett fortune was made as a result of that buying. That’s right. Then you have stories of the Kennedy’s and Bernard Barruch and people who did the same thing in 1932. That is when you can make money. If you’re going to buy a stock at $112 a share and hope it goes to $200 that may sound like big money to you, but it’s not. The real money is made when you can buy stocks at 25 cents, a quarter of a point, and watch them go up to $19. That’s real money and that’s the kind of money that the super rich people can make. But you can only do it if you’re in cash and you get out at the top and you protect that money all the way down. Then, when the last stock owner despairs, you’ll be his friend by buying those shares from him. At that point, when the market finally turns around, the multiples are unbelievable. That’s the massive magic wealth of wealth in the stock track record and I’d be happy to put it up against those. I follow my own advice. I don’t want to rope anybody into doing something they’re not comfortable with. I think they need to read the book, and as I say at the very end of the Foreword, read all the evidence, then the responsibility is yours. You make up your mind one way or another. The real estate boom has clearly encouraged people to continue to leverage up- I don’t understand it but, yes, people are taking out second mortgages to buy things that they want. For consumption, not investment. Yes, they are consuming their homes and turning over the ownership to the banks- At least that means the banks have some hard assets. Maybe. But now they are utterly dependent on the value of these real estate parcels that they own so much of, and that is dangerous. I think that real estate prices are going to go way down, very similar to the way they behaved in 1929-’33. Or 1835 –1842. I just don’t think banks should depend on those values-but they are. We will have to see what kind of decisions are made by banks in human terms. In other words, if the real estate market is falling, do they kick people out of their houses and try to sell them, or at what point do they decide that it is not worth it? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your book makes specific suggestions about ways for investors to find shelter from the bear market/deflation/depression you see? Exactly. I don’t just say “go to cash,” because the questions today are what cash and where do you keep it? Two incredibly important questions. We know from history that at the bottom of major market crashes, they tend to close banks. Let me guess, you don’t suggest a safe deposit box in a New York City bank. No. The fireplace would be safer in the winter. In fact, the book lists the two safest banks in each state. Also, some of the safer banks in the entire country. None of the major money center banks made those lists. The safer banks tend to be small. They tend to be rather conservative. They tend to have a lot of Treasury bills in their holdings because, believe it or not, some bank managements actually are somewhat concerned and not willing to speculate in derivatives and lend out all of their money to questionable enterprises. I want to talk about safe banks. Certainly, people remember the bank holiday during the midst of the depression when the banks were closed. The first thing that comes to mind, Bob, is I look at some of the large bank portfolios, particularly the derivative books of our largest banks. They’re looking more like hedge funds than they are the safety of a prime bank. Absolutely. Do you know, it was actually shocking to me to find out, that for nearly two centuries, the courts in the United States have upheld an interpretation of deposits to mean, not money that you’ve delivered for safe keeping, but money that you have lent to your bank? That means that if they go under, it’s sorry Charlie. Well, you know you lent it. It was your risk. Too bad. You have no recourse. You can’t sue them. They didn’t promise to safe keep your money. They said thank you for the loan, now we’ll go out and lend it again and try to make more money than we’re paying you for it. Now, the key here is you need to have your money in a bank that isn’t about to go under because it’s loans are so at risk. Unfortunately, today in the United States, most banks by far have lent out a tremendous percentage of their deposits. In some cases, even more than 100% of what they have on deposit. The slightest run or demand by depositors could cause these banks to shut their windows. Now, we all know about the FDIC and we can talk about that too, but the point is these banks are lent out to the hilt. They lent your money out. The only way to get safe is to put your money either in a bank that has extremely high liquidity, and there are a few in the world, a few that exist only to safeguard your money. Or, and I think this would be the second best solution, is to take it out of the banking system and, at least for the time being, lend it directly to the U. S. government by buying treasury bills. (Editor’s Note: Average investors who’ve read Conquer the Crash and acted on it should now be satisfactorily positioned for the coming depression. High net worth individuals may wish to go a step further than the recommendations in Conquer the Crash. From September 30 to October 6, SafeWealth will provide first-class accommodations, multiple seminar-style presentations, meetings with CEOs and offices of ultra-safe depositories and other financial institutions in Switzerland and private discussions to suit your needs. The time to go is before the market crashes and the demand for such services skyrockets. The fee is $15,000 per couple. The maximum attendance is 25, and last I heard, there are several slots left. If you want to attend, clear your schedule and call the SafeWealth Group at (dial 011 from the U.S.) + 44-1753-554-461 between 9 and 5 London time, which is 4:00 a.m. to noon Eastern time and before 9 a.m. Pacific time. Or, you may email clientservices@safewealthgroup.ch. They will provide all the information you need. The sign-up deadline is September 16th, just a few days from today.) Edited by - gz on 9/11/2002 16:46:36