Kazakhstan - gz
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By: GZ on Giovedì 18 Ottobre 2007 03:57
Sei anni fa l'Argentina saltò sul suo debito estero e non pagò ad esempio qui in italia un 30 miliardi di euro di bonds
Quanto era in totale il debito estero argentino ? sui 100 miliardi di dollari di allora, diciamo 150 di oggi
La cosa affascinante è che oggi un paese come il ^Kazakhstan da solo ha ricevuto tanti crediti esteri quanto l'Argentina#http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/17/bcnlatvia117.xml^ solo qualche anno fa (e sta per saltare assieme a diversi paesi dell'Europa dell'Est)
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But the prime victim so far has been the ex Soviet republic of Kazakhstan, despite holding 3pc of the world's oil reserves and the vast gas fields of the Caspian.
After credit growth of 100pc over the last year, its $40bn lending bubble has suddenly popped. House prices in some quarters of Almaty, the country's largest city, have fallen by nearly 20pc in the last three months, while the banks are suddenly finding that the global capital markets are no longer willing to roll over loans.
"Kazakhstan has a number of problems in the banking sector. There are no critical, dangerous phenomena," said President Nursultan Nazarbayev yesterday. That is a matter of dispute. Foreign debts are now $92bn, against reserves of $18bn – down $5bn already over the last two months.
The share price of the six biggest lenders halved between July and early October. Top lender Kazkommertsbank warned this week that it might have to breach loan covenants if the recent run on local deposits continues.
Credit default swaps on Alliance Bank ballooned to almost 1,000 basis points earlier this month. With foreign debts now topping 50pc of GDP, the banks now need $3bn in external funding each quarter to stay afloat.
The Kazakh central bank has blamed "speculative attacks" by hedge funds for the turmoil, pledging to take "all necessary measures" to shore up the banking system. However, in doing so it has injected $10.7bn of liquidity, equivalent to 75pc of the monetary base.
This has lifted bank shares for now, but inflation is 8.6pc and rising fast.
Standard & Poor's has taken fright, downgrading Kazakhstan to BBB-, the lowest investment grade. Fitch has lowered its outlook.
Kazakhstan's economy is not big enough to jolt the global financial system, but it lifts the lid on one of the most frothy cauldrons of the emerging market kitchen. Contagion has already spread to those Russian banks that are sagging under the weight of foreign debt – like Northern Rock...
