lo so che c'è chi ritiene tesla una casa auto .... Cern Basher passa il tempo a fare calcoli ... ha calcolato che noleggiare Optimus ad Elon in 5 anni renderebbe 911 volte più che continuare a vendere auto (i robotaxi solo 31 volte di più)
divertente , no ?
Tesla - What's Better: Autos vs. Energy vs. Robotaxi vs. Bots?
Answer: You'll soon be calling 911 (foreshadowing)... Okay, put yourself in Elon's shoes - you can make autos, or your can make battery storage products, or you can operate a robotaxi network, or you can offer humanoid bots as a service.
We'll examine three scenarios...
1. No production constraints -- One-year profitability

Assume for a minute that all four products are equally ready for the market, if you could only make one product, which one do you make?
Autos: Well, if you make and sell an electric vehicle you can make about $4,500 in after-tax profit per vehicle.
Energy: On the other hand, if you sell one Megapack you can make about $137,000 after-tax.
Robotaxi: Instead of making and selling EVs you could make EVs and build a fleet of robotaxis. In that case you could make about $24,800 per vehicle if you operate a robotaxi network.
Bots: Finally, if you make a bot and offer Labor as a Service, your after-tax profit could be about $21,000.
Assuming that you can make an equal number of all four products, you'd choose to concentrate your efforts on the energy business as it's 30x more profitable than selling EVs and about 6x more profitable than robotaxis or bots. But, in the real world there are production constraints and there might be a limited supply of batteries.
2. Battery supply constraints -- One-year profitability

Now we'll adjust for the energy capacity of each product - we'll put everything into the number of "vehicle equivalents."
Autos: No change - you still make $4,500 in after-tax profit per vehicle.
Energy: Megapacks have 46 times the energy capacity of EVs, so adjusting for that, the "vehicle equivalent" profitability of a Megapack is only about $3,000 after-tax.
Robotaxi: Robotaxi specific vehicles might have slightly smaller battery packs, so the "vehicle equivalent" profitability of a robotaxi is about $28,000.
Bots: Finally, you can make 37 bots for every EV, so the "vehicle equivalent" profitability of these bots is about $775,000.
In this scenario, robotaxis are 6x more profitable than selling EVs, but you'd choose to focus your efforts on bots as they are 169x more profitable than selling EVs (and 28x more profitable than robotaxis).
3. Battery supply constraints -- Five-year profitability

Now we'll adjust for the recurring nature of robotaxi and bots. When Tesla sells an EV or a Megapack, those items are one-time sales. An EV buyer might not come back to purchase another vehicle for at least five years - so we'll adjust everything for that time frame.
Autos: No change - you still make $4,500 in after-tax profit per vehicle.
Energy: Megapacks have some annual maintenance revenue, so adjusting for that the "five-year vehicle equivalent" profitability of a Megapack is about $3,200 after-tax.
Robotaxi: Assuming that a robotaxi lasts five years, the "five-year vehicle equivalent" profitability of the robotaxi is about $140,000.
Bots: Finally, assuming that a bot lasts five years, the "five-year vehicle equivalent" profitability of the bots is over $4.1 million!
In this scenario, robotaxis are 31x more profitable than selling EVs, but you'd choose to FULLY concentrate your efforts on bots as they are 911x more profitable than selling EVs (and about 30x more profitable than robotaxis). The objective of this post isn't to predict anything with precision, but rather to illustrate the staggering opportunity that is Optimus. Note: the estimated profitability of robotaxi and bots come from my models - not from the most optimistic scenarios, but from the more conservative scenarios.
https://twitter.com/CernBasher/status/1811957530840453192