non mi torna che i fed fund futures stiano prezzando addirittura un taglio dei tassi, all' indomani di un rialzo (20 giorni passati appena), nonostante la tregua recente (appena ieri) di Powell.
Although the December jobs report was exceptionally strong with the US economy adding the most jobs since February, the acceleration in average hourly earnings and the 312K increase won’t be enough to draw investors back into the dollar. The problem is that going into 2019, the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate hikes and on Friday, Fed Chair Powell reinforced that outlook by saying that while jobs and wage data were strong, they do not raise the Fed's concern about inflation. Instead, Powell expressed concern about China weakness spilling over to other parts of the world, saying that he feels that the drop in the manufacturing ISMreport is worth watching. More importantly, he stressed the need to be patient as we watch how the economy evolves and the need to be prepared with flexible policy. The markets are sending downside risk signals and the Fed will take into account the market’s concerns. Stocks soared in response as investors sensed Powell’s hesitancy in raising interest rates.
In fact, Fed fund futures are now pricing in a rate cut this year, which is a stark contrast to the central bank’s forecast for 2 hikes.