task force con elicotteri pronta per portare dollari contanti presso ogni banca - gz
¶
By: GZ on Martedì 21 Agosto 2007 03:43
...due domande x Gz o x altri
1-l'introdurre nuova moneta sui mercati anche se non toccando i fed funds, non ha lo stesso effetto di aumento di massa monetaria e quindi di calmiere? e quindi i tassi sono comunque in discesa?
----------------------------------------------------------------
yes. da 15 gg infatti il tasso di interesse sui fondi federali, quello di cui si parla sempre quando si dice "la FED ha tagliato i tassi..." è sceso al 4.90% - 5.0% mentre in teoria sarebbe al 5.25%
Per quanto riguarda le riserve delle banche sottolineo che venerdì scorso Countrywide, un banca specializzata nei mutui immobiliari, la più grande d'america con 160 miliardi di $ di attività, si è ritrovata la gente che in alcune città chiedeva indietro i soldi in contanti, CASH
La FED ha un task force con elicotteri pronta per portare dollari contanti presso ogni banca degli USA che abbia una crisi di fiducia e in cui il pubblico di colpo chieda i soldi depositati indietro in contanti
Ora, quanti dollari in contanti esistono in america ? sembra circa 150 miliardi in tutto. Non sono molti se uno pensa a quanto è il credito esteso dalle banche solo alle famiglie (13.000 miliardi)
------------------ ^da www.shadowstats.com#http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=898^
Where Did All the Currency Go? Some years back, I happened to be in San Francisco, having dinner with a former regional Federal Reserve Bank president and the chief economist for a large Midwestern bank. Market rumors that day had been that there was a run on a major bank in the City by the Bay. So I queried the regional Fed president as to what would be happening if the rumors were true.
He had had some personal experience with a run on banks in his region and explained how the Fed had a special team designed to handle such a crisis. The biggest problem he had had was getting adequate cash to the troubled banks to cover depositors, having to fly cash in by helicopters to meet the local cash flow needs.
The troubled bank in San Francisco, however, was much larger than the example cited, and the former Fed bank president speculated that there was not enough cash in the vaults of the regional Federal Reserve Bank, let alone the entire Federal Reserve System, to cover a true run on deposits at the major bank.
Therein lies an early problem for a system headed into hyperinflation: adequate currency. Where the Fed may hold roughly $30 billion in currency outside of $50 billion in commercial bank vault cash, the bulk of roughly $770 billion in currency outside the banks is not in the United States. Back in 2000, the Fed estimated that 50% to 70% of U.S. dollar cash was outside the system. That number probably is higher today, with perhaps as little as $150 billion in physical cash present in the United States, or roughly 0.009% of M3.
The rest of the dollars are used elsewhere in the world as a store of wealth, or as an alternate currency free of the woes of unstable domestic financial conditions. In Zimbabwe, for example, where something akin to hyperinflation is underway, U.S. dollars are used to maintain some semblance of economic activity, where wages and salaries seriously lag inflation, and goods often are available only on the black market.
My fairly crude definition of hyperinflation is a circumstance, where, due to rising prices, the largest pre-hyperinflation bank note becomes worth more as toilet paper/tissue than as currency. With limited physical cash in the system, existing currency would disappear quickly as a hyperinflation broke.
For the system to continuing functioning in anything close to a normal manner, the government would have to produce rapidly an extraordinary amount of new cash, and electronic commerce would have to be able to adjust to rapidly changing prices.
In terms of cash, new bills of much higher denominations would be needed, but production lead time is a problem. Conspiracy theories of recent years have suggested the U.S. Government already has printed a new currency of red-colored bills, intended for some dual internal and external U.S. dollar system. If such indeed were the case, then there might be a store of "new dollars" that could be released at a 1-to-1,000,000 ratio, or whatever ratio was needed to make the new currency meaningful, but such would not resolve any long-term problems, unless it were part of an overall restructuring of the domestic and global financial and currency systems.
From a practical standpoint, however, currency would disappear, at least for a period of time in the early period of a hyperinflation.
Where the vast bulk of today's money is not physical, but electronic, however, chances of the system adapting here are virtually nil. Think of the time, work and effort that went into preparing computer systems for Y2K, or even problems with the recent early shift to daylight savings time. Systems would have to be adjusted for variable, rather than fixed pricing, credit card lines would need to be expanded daily, the number of digits used in tallying dollar-denominated transactions would need to be expanded sharply.
From a practical standpoint, the electronic quasi-cashless society of today also would shut down early in a hyperinflation. Unfortunately, this circumstance rapidly would exacerbate an ongoing economic collapse.
