negli anni '80 c'erano 20 problemi di cui preoccuparsi e oggi ce ne sono solo 15 - gz
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By: GZ on Giovedì 03 Novembre 2005 23:16
Se leggo in giro dovrei essere cauto perchè sembra c sono tanti problemi, ma come ha detto Greenspan oggi: "...negli anni '80 c'erano 20 problemi di cui preoccuparsi e oggi ce ne sono solo 15..."
Se guardo i NUMERI siamo nel mezzo del periodo migliore per le società per azioni del secolo. Non è un modo di dire, come nota il Financial Times non si è mai visto tre anni e mezzo di incrementi dei profitti OGNI TRIMESTRE e ogni trimestre sempre maggiori di almeno il 10%
(lo so che per i consumatori o lavoratori non è così, ma ci sono le elezioni politiche per questa questione)
La cosa curiosa è che se leggi gli esperti siamo sull'orlo una grossa crisi e se guardi solo i numeri ignorando i commenti sembra il trionfo del capitalismo.
Nel frattempo l'S&P 500 è fermo a 1.220 da un anno. Bisogna stare attenti perchè se non capita in fretta qualche guaio vero non ci vuole niente per mettere su altri 150 punti
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Wall Street earnings streak to record
By Steve Johnson
November 2 2005
Wall Street stocks are set to beat an ^all-time record by posting their 14th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth#http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b139f478-4bc6-11da-997b-0000779e2340.html^
With the third quarter reporting season now two-thirds complete Standard & Poor’s, the ratings agency, is expecting earnings growth of 12.3 per cent – less than the 17 per cent foreseen by the market before Hurricane Katrina struck in August but above the 11.5 per cent that expectations sank to in the wake of Katrina and little sister Rita.
To date, 69 per cent of S&P 500 companies have reported results above expectations, with 12 per cent in line and 19 per cent below forecasts, according to Henry McVey, chief US investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.
However, there may be the first signs of storm clouds gathering over Wall Street.
Mr McVey notes that negative outlook statements for the fourth quarter have outnumbered positive ones by a ratio of three to one. Despite this, he remains relaxed about the big picture.
“Visibility post-Katrina is more limited, there are alot more things that can go bump in the night,” hesays. “We are going togo through a period ofheightened volatility butwe still have a favour-able backdrop for equities.”
Howard Silverblatt, market equity analyst at S&P, also remains upbeat, forecasting further earnings growth of around 14 per cent in both the next two quarters (taking the record run to 16 periods), before growth eases to 10.2, 12.2 and 9.2 per cent in the second to fourth quarters of 2006.
The energy sector led the way this quarter, posting a 60 per cent year-on-year leap in earnings, including ExxonMobil’s 75 per cent surge in third quarter profits to $9.9bn. Mr Silverblatt foresees further strong growth in the next two quarters, before growth turns negative in the second half of 2006.
However, the consumer discretionary sector has reported a 6.9 per cent slide in earnings, not helped by the travails of the auto industry. Materials – an energy-intensive sector encompassing paper, chemicals and mining – surprised by also unveiling a slight fall in earnings.
Mr McVey now sees a divergence in the market, with those industries with pricing power, such as energy and hotels, likely to do well, while “price-takers” who cannot pass cost rises on – such as food, retailers and autos – struggle.