By: GZ on Martedì 17 Febbraio 2004 22:27
A proposito di Microsoft e del fatto che ha 40 o 50 miliardi di dollari in cassa e non li usa ritiro parte di quello che ho detto
(non trovo il post e scrivo qui perchè trovato questo con argomento MSFT e mi piace cercare di tenere il filo)
e direi anzi che MSFT ha qualche chance di fare meglio del mercato
Perchè in pratica può essere che ora in questa battaglia per
conquistare Disney messa in piedi da ^Comcast#^ sia proprio ^Microsoft#^ che controlla una larga fetta di Comcast a beneficiarne
--------------------------- www.thestreet.com Doug Kass ----------------------
Does ^Microsoft#^ hold the key for ^Comcast#^? Does Starwood Hotels & Resorts hold the key for ^Disney#^?
I see Microsoft as the key to Comcast's bid for Disney, though my slant has been given little mention in the media's discussion of Comcast's bid to acquire Disney.
As most are aware, Microsoft owns approximately 7.5% of Comcast by virtue of its private convertible equity ownership of CMCSK. Ironically, Microsoft also recently entered into a software agreement with Disney.
Suppose, as I suggested late last week, Microsoft expands its investment in Comcast further, to maybe $20 billion. This will serve to allow Comcast to modestly increase the value of its Disney bid by adding a significant amount of cash to the proposed transaction.
Again, I think it is rather unlikely that Comcast will boost its Disney bid in any meaningful way. First, unlike some other observers, I estimate that Disney's private market value is relatively low -- only in the $27-$30 range (that's why I sold the shares recently). And Comcast has historically not overpaid for its acquisitions.
I estimate Comcast's private market value at approximately $42/share -- or nearly 50% above today's share price of $28.90/share.
By my calculations -- based on its $800 million to $1.2 billion of post acquisition synergies -- Comcast is increasing its own private market value by about 5%. But that boost in value would be eliminated if the company increased its bid for Disney. With Comcast having that opinion as well, I assign the highest probability to a modest increase in the bid for Disney (both in price and the proportion of cash/stock).
By contrast -- as mentioned previously -- Disney must win over shareholders by the March annual meeting as, in this case, the status quo will probably disadvantage Disney and improve the possibility of Comcast's eventual success in capturing its prize.
There are several strategies that Disney can employ. One interesting move, mentioned by Mario Gabelli over breakfast with me yesterday, would be for Disney to monetize its 30,000 hotel rooms (perhaps in a sale to a hotel operator like Starwood, or through another financial transaction).
A quick monetization of its room base would likely lead to Disney upping its dividend and buying back stock (and buoying the shares -- rendering the Comcast deal more unattractive).