By: GZ on Giovedì 11 Ottobre 2007 19:29
Greenspan ha dato un intervista allo show comico di Jon Stewart in cui ha detto che secondo lui è la psicologia che conta e muove l'economia e che quando riduceva i tassi di interesse creava un effetto psicologico che induceva a spendere la gente
Se avesse fatto questi discorsi quando era il governatore... sembra proprio sentendolo che il suo compito fosse stimolare l'economia facendo salire la borsa e rendendo la gente più ottimista
in teoria il governatore della Banca Centrale dovrebbe alzare e abbassare i tassi per regolare la quantità credito
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Stewart: When you lower interest rates, it drives money to stocks and lowers the return people get on savings.
Greenspan: Yes, indeed.
Stewart: So they’ve made a choice - “We would like to favor those who invest in the stock market and not those who [save]”...
Greenspan: That’s the way it comes out, but that’s not the way we think about it.
Stewart: Explain that to me. It seems to me that we favor investment, but we don’t favor work. The vast majority of people work, they pay payroll taxes, and they use banks. And then there’s this whole other world of hedge funds and short betting... y’know, it seems like craps. And they keep saying, “No no no, don’t worry about it, it’s Free Market, that’s why we live in much bigger houses.” But it really is, it’s the Fed, or some other thing, no?
Greenspan: I think you’d better re-read my book.
Stewart: Am I wrong that we penalize work by not making the choice to...
Greenspan: No, what a sound money system does is to stabilize the elements in it and reduce the uncertainty that people confront, and when people confront uncertainty they withdraw and it reduces economic activity...
Stewart: So it’s all about perception then. It’s about making people believe the system is sound. If the stock market is high, people feel confident in spending, and if it lowers, they feel less confident?
Greenspan: Well...uh...I think you have to realize, there are certain aspects of human nature, which move exactly the way you defined it. The problem is, periodically we all go a little bit euphoric until we are assuming with confidence that everything is terrific, there will be no problems, nothing will ever happen, and then it dawns on us- NO!
Stewart: And then it goes the other way.
Greenspan: Exactly.
Stewart: Huge Fear.
Greenspan: I was telling my colleagues the other day...I’d been dealing with these big mathematical models for forecasting the economy, and I’m looking at what’s going on the last few weeks and I say, “Y’know, if I could figure out a way to determine whether or not people are more fearful, or changing to euphoric... I don’t need any of this other stuff. I could forecast the economy better than any way I know. The trouble is, we can’t figure that out. I’ve been in the forecasting business for 50 years, and I’m no better than I ever was, and nobody else is either.”