By: GZ on Giovedì 18 Ottobre 2007 03:17
il petrolio ha toccato di massimo oggi 88.88$ (non scherzo, 4 volte 8 e si è fermato in modo superstizioso al numero 88.88$ )
il che è totalmente insensato se uno pensa che cosa 89-88 dollari squello che scade tra dieci giorni e 78-89 dollari quello che scade tra un anno, dicembre 2008 ad esempio Nymex
e allo stesso tempo però vedi che i contratti di novembre non vengono consegnati, ma i traders li vendono e ricomprano quelli di dicembre 2007 quasi tutti (è un dato che puoi leggere al NYmex)
cioè 10 dollari di differenza è assurdo, a meno che paghi per la consegna immediata (novembre 2007), se paghi 10 dollari di più che per la consegna tra un anno ^E POI NON TE LO FAI CONSEGNARE E CONTINUI A SPECULARE SUL MESE DOPO, DICEMBRE, VUOLE DIRE CHE NON NE HAI BISOGNO#http://seekingalpha.com/article/50078-options-trader-tuesday-outlook-china-oil-eric^
Come mai allora se il mercato stima 78 dollari come prezzo tra un anno, paga 89 per la consegna immediata, che però è fittizia perchè fanno tutti il "roll-over" al future del mese successivo... ?
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``I'm getting calls from credit derivative traders who want to move to commodities,'' said Adam Jama, head of credit and commodities at Napier Scott Executive Search Ltd. in London, which has been placing candidates for 15 years. ``Some banks are so eager to find good commodity professionals that they're willing to look for talent elsewhere.''
`War for Talent'
Compensation has swelled along with commodities prices. Shear earned $35 million at Morgan Stanley in 2006, more than the $30 million paid to his boss, Co-President Zoe Cruz, 52, according to the company's proxy statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Only Chairman and CEO John Mack's $41.4 million compensation was higher.
The best-paid commodity traders at a bank will earn $10 million a year, five times more than in 2002, Principal Search's Chrispin said. The top traders at energy companies such as BP Plc and Electricite de France SA would earn at least 80 percent more if they left to join Wall Street, estimated Jama at Napier Scott.
BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward said in July the company won't pay ``silly sums of money'' to retain traders as Europe's second-largest oil company loses people to banks.
``While some banks may have implemented hiring freezes across the board, this hasn't been the case for Barclays,'' said Barclays's Jones. ``The war for talent is alive and well in commodities.''
More at Risk
The London-based bank is eliminating positions at its Equifirst U.S. subprime unit and at its U.K. credit-card business. Barclays, the U.K.'s third-largest bank, expects to increase its commodity headcount by 20 percent to 300 next year. Barclays Capital is the investment banking unit of Barclays Plc.
Morgan Stanley is giving its commodities traders more opportunities to profit by risking the company's money. On any given day during the quarter ended Aug. 31, the firm's so-called value at risk, or the amount it could lose in one day's trading, totaled $36 million, up $3 million from the prior period and double the amount the company reported for foreign exchange, the company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
Lehman increased its risk to $8 million a day from $7 million in the previous quarter, also more than the company had in currencies, its SEC filings show.
JPMorgan has added 30 people to its commodities group since June, taking the total to 170, Masters said.
`Strengthen Case'
The decline of the subprime mortgage market ``hasn't and isn't likely to impact our growth plans for commodities,'' Masters, 38, said. ``In fact, it's strengthened the case for commodities as an asset class.''
JPMorgan plans to eliminate 10 percent of the group that finances leveraged buyouts and packages debt into securities. Masters said she plans to expand its commodity group 30 percent in the next year.
Futures markets for oil, copper and shipping show traders and analysts anticipate prices will decline in the next year, raising concern that the bull market will end.
``When interest in the markets starts to peter away, you will see who is committed,'' said Frank Feenstra, a managing director at Greenwich Associates, a Greenwich, Connecticut-based consultant to the financial services industry. ``It may be harder for those who are just starting in the business and who have not made any money yet to justify their existence when the commodity markets turn.''
Chasing Goldman
U.S. securities firms employed about 803,700 workers in December 2006, up from 790,600 a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.
Credit Suisse Group, UBS and Lehman are among the banks that expanded into commodities during the past three years to help protect clients from airlines to manufacturers against swings in costs for raw materials. They are also out to grab market share from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the biggest commodities traders on Wall Street.
``Our business plans over the next 12 to 18 months are ambitious and our hiring plans reflect that,'' said Adam Knight, 33, who heads Credit Suisse's metals-trading alliance with Glencore International AG. He declined to say how many people are in the bank's commodities unit.
To contact the reporter on this story: Saijel Kishan in London at skishan@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 17, 2007 10:16 EDT