By: GZ on Lunedì 25 Agosto 2003 04:19
L'indice Value Line contiene 1.600 titoli americani (non 6mila come avevo scritto) pesati in modo uguale e venerdì ha toccato il recorda assoluto di tutti i tempi indicando che il titolo MEDIO in america è sui massimi. Il Value Line index è salito ora di un +43% dal mimimo di marzo!.
L'S&P SmallCap 600 Index le cui società hanno un valore medio di 500 milioni dollari (e sui cui esiste un future) è rimbalzato del 38 percento da marzo. L' S&P MidCap 400, le cui società hanno un valore medio di 1.8 miliardi dollari (e sui cui esiste pure un future) è rimbalzato del 32 percento.
L' S&P 500 di cui tutti parlano e che contiene le società più grandi pesate per capitalizzazione è risalito del 23 percento, la metà del Value Line.
Esiste un mercato toro sulle società medio-piccole in america o detto in altro modo, se compravi dei titoli a caso in america rischiavi di guadagnare comunque perchè sono saliti quasi tutti negli ultimi 6 mesi, specie i piccoli.
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Value Line Index's Record High Signals U.S. Stocks May Advance
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg)
-- By one measure, U.S. stocks reached an all-time high last week.
The Value Line Arithmetic Index, tracking more than 1,600 stocks, closed Thursday at a record 1333.33. Each member of the index has an equal influence on its value, whether it's General Electric Co., with a total market value of $299 billion; Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc., valued at $2.69 billion, or Moldflow Corp., valued at $98.3 million.
Benchmarks such as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index give greater weight to more valuable companies. The S&P 500 ended last week 35 percent below its high, reached in March 2000.
The Value Line index's performance is emblematic of how smaller companies have led the market higher this year, said investors such as Franklin Morton, who helps manage $12 billion at Ariel Capital Management Inc. in Chicago. The rally in these ``small cap'' stocks indicates the economy is picking up, they said, and may lead to gains for larger companies as well.
``Historically, small caps have performed well during periods of an economic recovery,'' said Morton. The largest holdings in the firm's $1.7 billion Ariel Fund include American Greetings Corp., a greeting-card company valued at $1.2 billion, and Grey Global Group Inc., an advertising company with a value of $1 billion.
`Great Sign'
The Value Line index surpassed a previous high of 1331.02, reached on April 16, 2002. General Electric contributed to the performance by rising 23 percent this year, while Krispy Kreme gained 37 percent and Moldflow added 31 percent. The S&P 500's peak this year was 1011.66 on June 17, and its all-time high, set on March 24, 2000, was 1527.46.
``The average stock is doing better than what the S&P 500 would suggest,'' said Andrew Burkly, an analyst with Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York.
Burkly said the Value Line index's record is ``a great sign'' because a market rally is less likely to falter when it broadens to include most stocks. ``That would suggest to me that the big caps would follow,'' he said.
Both indexes may struggle to advance this week, because there are few earnings announcements or economic reports that may move stocks. Trading also may be slower than average, with many investors on vacation for the last week of August.
Only three companies in the S&P 500 will report earnings during the week: H&R Block Inc., the biggest U.S. tax preparer; Brown-Forman Corp., the maker of Jack Daniels whiskey and Lenox china, and Dollar General Corp., the discount retailer with the most U.S. stores. The Conference Board releases August consumer confidence figures on Tuesday.
First to Benefit
Smaller companies have outperformed larger ones since March, when U.S. stocks started rallying. The S&P SmallCap 600 Index, whose members have a median market value of $552 million, has climbed 38 percent from its low on March 12. The S&P MidCap 400, with a median value of $1.8 billion, is up 32 percent. The S&P 500 is 23 percent higher.
The Value Line index, started by the investment-research and money-management firm of Value Line Inc. in 1988, has risen more than all these benchmarks. Since March 12, the measure has jumped 43 percent.
Small companies often are the first to benefit from an expansion, said Prudential Equity Group Inc.'s Steven DeSanctis, ranked as the top small-company strategist by money managers in Institutional Investor magazine's 2002 survey.
``When you start to see demand pick up, the first thing (large companies) have to do is go to their suppliers, which are often small caps,'' DeSanctis said.
Another Measure
By giving equal weight to small companies, Value Line better reflects what's going on with the average stock, said Samuel Eisenstadt, the chairman of research at the New York-based firm.
All 1,674 stocks followed by Value Line's analysts are in the index. The firm also calculates a so-called geometric index, introduced in 1961, that is designed to indicate how the median stock performed.
Value Line includes companies such as Moldflow, a maker of software for designing and producing plastic parts, that are too small to draw attention from many professional investors. This provides a better look at the whole universe of stocks from which investors can choose, said Eisenstadt.
The arithmetic index's performance shows ``it's been a broader rally than many people have realized,'' said Bill Rhodes, chief investment analyst at Rhodes Analytics. ``And in the case of a broad rally, that rally has more staying power.''
