Ora inizia il primo tempo - gz
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By: GZ on Martedì 14 Agosto 2007 12:46
La crisi dei mutui americani poveri è solo un antipasto, in fondo si tratta di perdite su una frazione degli immobili più poveri americani che sono indietro nel pagare i mutui, ma sono case che poi la banca rivende, non è che vanno bruciate e alla fine di tutto si perderanno 100 miliardi che in un mercato finanziario globale da 70.000 miliardi sono briciole
Sta facendo danni solo perchè molti hedge fund hanno speculato sui bonds immobiliari prendendo a prestito cifre folli, usano leva di 5 a 1 o 10 a 1 per cui anche perdite limitate si moltiplicano per 5 o per 10 per questi marpioni
Ora inizia invece la parte più seria, quando il consumatore occidentale cede e con lui tutta la piramide costruita sui suoi debiti
Ieri il Giappone ha annunciato che il suo export dal +13% di crescita è sceso al +3.8% di colpo e anche la crescita del PIL viene fuori ora più debole. Come mai ? E la Cina, non c'è la Cina ora che risolve tutti i problemi ?
Guarda caso l'America aveva mostrato dati di import più deboli, tanto è vero che il suo deficit estero è leggermante migliorato. Dicono che ormai l'Asia cresce da sola, ma qui appena gli americani riducono solo di un poco i loro consumi e importazioni vedi il Giappone che frena di colpo
Stamattina Germania e Francia stupiscono con dati di crescita più bassi delle previsioni, dopo che l'Italia la settimana scorsa aveva fatto notizia (non sui nostrio giornali ovviamente che parlano solo di minchiate) con dati orribili di produzione, pil e consumi. Risultato qui l'euro sta cedendo
Due minuti fa l'Inghilterra è uscita con dati di inflazione molto più bassi del previsto e la sterlina è franata
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German, French Economic Expansion Slowed in Second Quarter
By Simone Meier and Sandrine Rastello
Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Economic growth in Germany and France slowed more than economists forecast in the second quarter, limiting the European Central Bank's scope to raise interest rates further.
Gross domestic product in Germany and France, the largest economies in the euro region, grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the first, when it expanded 0.5 percent in both countries, reports from their statistics offices showed today. Economists expected 0.4 percent expansion in Germany and 0.5 percent growth in France.
Germany and France join Italy in reporting slower-than- forecast economic expansion, a sign the euro region's economy may have faltered in the second quarter. Rising interest rates, a 42 percent surge in oil prices since mid-January and slowing U.S. expansion are weighing on companies and consumers.
``Cooling European growth could make it harder for the ECB to raise interest rates,'' said Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist at Natixis in Paris. ``A stronger euro, expensive oil and a slowing U.S. economy are of course all depressing factors for the economy. It will be the year of slowdown.''
`Downside Risks'
Economists expect euro-area growth to slow to 0.5 percent in the second quarter from 0.7 percent in the first, according to a Bloomberg survey. The German and French reports ``put further downside risks to our estimate'' for the euro area, said Silvia Pepino, an economist at JPMorgan in London. She now estimates a quarterly growth rate of 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent.
In France, corporate investment failed to grow in the second quarter after rising 1.4 percent in the previous three months, Paris-based statistics office Insee said today. German growth was held back by a drop in construction spending, according to the Federal Statistics office in Wiesbaden.
The Italian economy also cooled more than forecast in the second quarter. Growth slowed to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent in the previous three months, Rome-based Istat statistics office said Aug. 10.
A 7 percent gain in the euro against the dollar in the past year is clouding the export outlook by making goods more expensive abroad. At the same time, crude-oil prices have surged. A barrel cost $71.83 today, up from $49.90 on Jan. 18.
BMW, ThyssenKrupp
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's biggest luxury carmaker, on Aug. 1 reported a bigger decline in second-quarter profit than analysts expected because of a rising euro and higher raw-material costs. ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany's largest steelmaker, on Aug. 10 forecast slower full-year profit and sales growth.
Company earnings may be hurt by any broadening of the credit squeeze prompted by U.S. subprime mortgage defaults.
The ECB, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks injected $290 billion into money markets on Aug. 9 and Aug. 10 amid fears that U.S. subprime mortgage losses will curtail lending and push up short-term interest rates.
``With credit concerns still prevalent, the cocktail of slower activity and easing inflation raises further doubts as to whether the ECB will be able to hike rates,'' said Stuart Bennett, senior euro-region strategist at Calyon in London.
The ECB signaled on Aug. 2 that it plans to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter-point to 4.25 percent in September, the ninth increases since late 2005.
Investors have scaled back bets on the ECB raising its main lending rate again after September, futures trading shows.
The implied rate on the three-month Euribor contract for December settlement was at 4.40 percent today, down from 4.52 percent on Aug. 8. The contracts settle to the three-month inter- bank offered rate for the euro, which has averaged 16 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate since the currency's start in 1999.
The ECB in June forecast the euro-region
