Pregasi non rimuovere - masfuli
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By: xxxxxx on Domenica 08 Dicembre 2002 18:11
D'accordo che il tasso di sconto non conta quasi nulla, ma l'influenza delle banche centrali è enorme!
E se non capisce questo è quasi inutile discutere del resto, ma non ho niente da fare e allora le rispondo con tono simile al suo.
Questi sono alcuni dei fattori di aumento e diminuzione delle riserve bancarie e in ultima analisi della massa monetaria.
Tratto da un testo di Murrey Rothbard:
There are ten factors of increase and decrease of bank reserves.
1. Monetary Gold Stock. This is, actually, the only uncontrolled
factor of increase—an increase in this factor increases total reserves
to the same extent. When someone deposits gold in a commercial
bank (as he could freely do in the 1920s), the bank deposits it at the
Federal Reserve Bank and adds to its reserves there by that
amount. While some gold inflows and outflows were domestic, the
vast bulk were foreign transactions. A decrease in monetary gold
stock causes an equivalent decrease in bank reserves. Its behavior
is uncontrolled—decided by the public—although in the long run,
Federal policies influence its movement.
2. Federal Reserve Assets Purchased. This is the preeminent controlled
factor of increase and is wholly under the control of the Federal
Reserve authorities. Whenever the Federal Reserve purchases
an asset, whatever that asset may be, it can purchase either from
the banks or from the public. If it purchases the asset from a (member)
bank, it buys the asset and, in exchange, grants the bank an
increase in its reserve. Reserves have clearly increased to the same
extent as Federal Reserve assets. If, on the other hand, the Federal
Reserve buys the asset from a member of the public, it gives a
check on itself to the individual seller. The individual takes the
check and deposits it with his bank, thus giving his bank an
increase in reserves equivalent to the increase in Reserve assets. (If
the seller decides to take currency instead of deposits, then this
factor is exactly offset by an increase in money in circulation outside
the banks—a factor of decrease.)
Gold is not included among these assets; it was listed in the first
category (Monetary Gold Stock) and is generally deposited in,
rather than purchased by, the Federal Reserve Banks. The major
assets purchased are “Bills Bought” and “U.S. Government Securities.”
U.S. Government Securities are perhaps the most publicized
field of “open-market operations”; Federal Reserve purchases
add to bank reserves and sales diminish them. Bills Bought
were acceptance paper which the Federal Reserve bought outright in
a policy of subsidy that practically created this type of paper de novo
in the United States. Some writers treat Bills Bought as an uncontrolled
factor, because the Federal Reserve announced a rate at
which it would buy all acceptances presented to it. No law, however,
compelled it to adopt this policy of unlimited purchase; it
therefore must be counted as a pure creation of Federal Reserve
policy and under its control.
3. Bills Discounted by the Federal Reserve. These bills are not purchased,
but represent loans to the member banks. They are rediscounted
bills, and advances to banks on their IOUs. Clearly a factor
of increase, they are not as welcome to banks as are other ways
of increasing reserves, because they must be repaid to the System;
yet, while they remain outstanding, they provide reserves as effectively
as any other type of asset. Bills Discounted, in fact, can be
loaned precisely and rapidly to those banks that are in distress, and
are therefore a powerful and effective means of shoring up banks
in trouble. Writers generally classify Bills Discounted as uncontrolled,
because the Federal Reserve always stands ready to lend to
banks on their eligible assets as collateral, and will lend almost
unlimited amounts at a given rate. It is true, of course, that the
Federal Reserve fixes this rediscount rate, and at a lower rate when
stimulating bank borrowing, but this is often held to be the only
way that the System can control this factor. But the Federal
Reserve Act does not compel, it only authorizes, the Federal
Reserve to lend to member banks. If the authorities want to exercise
an inflationary role as “lender of last resort” to banks in trouble,
it chooses to do so by itself. If it wanted, it could simply refuse
to lend to banks at any time. Any expansion of Bills Discounted,
then, must be attributed to the will of the Federal Reserve authorities.
On the other hand, member banks themselves have largely controlled
the speed of repayment of Reserve loans. When the banks
are more prosperous, they generally reduce their indebtedness to
the Federal Reserve. The authorities could compel more rapid
repayment, but they have decided to lend freely to banks and to
influence banks by changing its rediscount charges.
To separate controlled from uncontrolled factors as best we can,
therefore, we are taking the rather drastic step of considering any
expansion of Bills Discounted as controlled by the government, and
any reduction as being uncontrolled, and determined by the banks. Of
course, repayments will be partly governed by the amount of previous
debt, but this seems to be the most reasonable division.
4. Other Federal Reserve Credit. This is largely “float,” or checks
on banks remaining temporarily uncollected by the Federal
Reserve. This is an interest-free form of lending to banks and is
therefore a factor of increase wholly controlled by the Federal
Reserve. Its importance was negligible in the 1920s.
4. Other Federal Reserve Credit. This is largely “float,” or checks
on banks remaining temporarily uncollected by the Federal
Reserve. This is an interest-free form of lending to banks and is
therefore a factor of increase wholly controlled by the Federal
Reserve. Its importance was negligible in the 1920s.
5. Money in Circulation Outside the Banks. This is the main factor
of decrease—an increase in this item decreases total reserves to
the same extent. This is the total currency in the hands of the public
and is determined wholly by the relative place people wish to
accord paper money as against bank deposits. It is therefore an
uncontrolled factor, decided by the public.
6. Treasury Currency Outstanding. Any increase in Treasury currency
outstanding is deposited with the Federal Reserve in the
Treasury’s deposit account. As it is spent on government expenditures,
the money tends to flow back into commercial bank
reserves. Treasury currency is therefore a factor of increase, and is
controlled by the Treasury (or by Federal statute). Its most important
element is silver certificates backed 100 percent by silver bullion
and silver dollars.
7. Treasury Cash Holdings. Any increase in Treasury cash holdings
represents a shift from bank reserves, while a decline in Treasury
cash is spent in the economy and tends to increase reserves. It
is therefore a factor of decrease and is controlled by the Treasury.
8. Treasury Deposits at the Federal Reserve. This factor is very
similar to Treasury cash holdings; an increase in deposits at the
Reserve represents a shift from bank reserves, while a decrease means
that more money is added to the economy and swells bank reserves.
This is, therefore, a factor of decrease controlled by the Treasury.
9. Non-member Bank Deposits at the Federal Reserve. This factor
acts very similarly to Treasury deposits at the Federal Reserve. An
increase in non-member bank deposits lowers member bank
reserves, for they represent shifts from member banks to these
other accounts. A decline will increase member bank reserves.
These deposits are mainly made by non-member banks, and by
foreign governments and banks. They are a factor of decrease, but
uncontrolled by the government.
10. Unexpended Capital Funds of the Federal Reserve. They are
capital funds of the Federal Reserve not yet expended in assets
(largely bank premises and expenses of operation). This capital is
drawn from commercial banks, and, therefore, if unexpended, is a
withdrawal of reserves. This is almost always a negligible item; it
is clearly under the control of the Federal Reserve authorities.
E' chiaro che l'influenza della banca centrale (americana in questo caso) sulla quantità di massa monetaria in circolo è enorme e va chiaramente ben al di là dello smanettamento del tasso di sconto.
Già solo questo è sufficiente per togliere le fondamenta alla prima metà del suo discorso e cioè all'affermazione "la banca centrale non conta nulla"
Poi dice:
"Ma se proprio si vuole lo stesso attribuire alla banca centrale come deus ex machina la spiegazione di tutto allora SULLA BASE DEI RISULTATI FINORA RAGGIUNTI ho più fiducia nella FED che in scrive su questo forum lanciando lazzi"
e continua con affermazioni che dipendono da questa.
La banca centrale o non conta nulla o regola tutto?
La borsa, il pil, l'occupazione...
Ma scherziamo?
LA BANCA CENTRALE HA IL CONTROLLO DELLA MASSA MONETARIA NON DELL'ECONOMIA. La può influenzare, può provocare un boom (e l'ha fatto), ma dopo non può evitare il burst.
E, please, confronti le borse denominandole nella stessa valuta (S&P, Mib, Dax, Cac, Nikkey) o tutte in dollari o tutte in yen o tutte in euro. Su grafici di 20 - 30 anni troverà delle sorprese.
Con questo post mi ritiro dal forum ringraziando tutti (Zibordi compreso) per aver contribuito notevolmente alla mia crescita.
Qui non ho più nulla da dire.