Banche Europee

 

  By: Moderatore on Venerdì 25 Aprile 2003 16:12

------------ BreakingViews ------ Credit Suisse --Jonathan Ford Shrinking the problem Credit Suisse: Credit Suisse says it wants to hang on to its investment banking business. But does it want a rather smaller one? The group's pre-announced first quarter figures suggest that it might do. Other investment banks have made absolute pots of money from fixed income trading so far this year. Deutsche Bank as a whole made roughly the same profit it made in the first quarter of 2001 (and its investment banking bit almost certainly made much more). Credit Suisse First Boston's net income of SFr220m was 30% less than it made in the same period. Credit Suisse has been cutting back at CSFB in order to reduce the bloated cost base the unit acquired after it bought Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette in 2000. It is still doing so, if its comments about reviewing equity research and trading are to be taken at face value. Credit Suisse has also been consciously taking on less risk. This is starting to have an effect on the firm's franchise. Deutsche Bank displaced CSFB as the biggest issuer of high yield bonds in the third quarter of last year. Historically, top slot had been the Swiss bank's birthright. Shrinking CSFB doesn't make a lot of sense if it just means hacking back willy-nilly. Cutting capacity at the bottom of the cycle means handing valuable market share to rivals when things improve. But controlled shrinkage may not be a bad idea. After all, investors place a higher value on earnings from the private and retail banking side, and those are both more reliable and doing rather well. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that bad news at CSFB may have scared customers away from the private bank last year. Cutting back would not only reduce this reputational risk but release capital to help the private banking side grow faster. Much depends on whether Credit Suisse can shrink CSFB in a way that preserves - and even enhances - its edge and value. If it can't, it might as well bite the bullet and sell. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Credit Suisse said net client inflows at private banking increased from the SFr900m achieved in the fourth quarter. The results were adversely affected by losses on the group’s investments in Swiss Air Lines and Swiss Life, which are held at the corporate centre. Central costs were SFr230m. Credit Suisse will issue full first quarter figures on 6 May. Phil Ryan, chief financial officer, said the group was not optimistic about markets for the rest of the year, but the group was “not waiting for a recovery in the economy to return to profitability”. He said CSFB was considering further reductions in equity research and trading. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathan Ford : Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank expects Q1 loss: Most big commercial and investment banks have done well out of bond trading this year. And Deutsche Bank, with its large fixed income business, is no exception. The German giant expects to earn profits of E950m before tax and one-off charges in the first quarter of 2003 - a thumping increase of two thirds over the same period a year ago. This is not to be sniffed at. After all, JP Morgan only managed a 43% increase in pre-tax profits in the first quarter, while Citigroup's corporate and investment banking power-house jacked up profits by a comparatively measly 17%. But there is a great big fat fly in the ointment. The group has taken a raft of charges against profits. These include about E1.2bn of write-offs against its investment in Gerling, the stricken German insurer, a bunch of listed shareholdings, and its investments in private equity. Even after taking into account an offsetting gain on the sale of its custody business to State Street, the write-downs almost eliminate Deutsche's profits for the quarter. And after taxes, because the charges are not all offsettable against tax, it will make a loss. It is easy to be cynical about the wide gap between the "underlying" performance and the tangible outcome for shareholders. After all, Deutsche is a serial writer-down of assets. In the eight quarters since the end of 2000, it has written off a total of E2.9bn - or E360m a quarter. But the move does have some logic. It is likely that Deutsche's profits have been flattered by a trading windfall that won't necessarily recur in future quarters. It makes sense then to use that one-off gain to take some one-off hits. This is especially the case as Josef Ackermann has promised to restructure the group to focus on its core business. But if one are going to make a virtue of cleaning out the Augean stables, it is advisable to finish the job. One problem is that Ackermann may still have some muck to hose out. And he may not be able to rely on trading profits to do his dung-busting for him. After all, Deutsche still has E4.7bn of large industrial holdings, including stakes in Daimler Chrysler and Allianz. And despite the write downs it has taken on private equity, it still has more than E3bn on its books. That's far more than UBS or Credit Suisse have. It looks as if Deutsche is closer to the end than the beginning of its cleaning exercise. But until it is clear that the bank has really finished the job, it won't get much of a reward from investors.

 

  By: GZ on Mercoledì 23 Aprile 2003 03:29

alla fine qualche cosa per risolvere i problemi lo si trova... ------------------------------------------------- April 22, 2003 Five German Banks to Pool Loans in Joint Venture By MARK LANDLER RANKFURT, April 22 — Five of Germany's largest banks, mired in their worst downturn since World War II, plan to announce on Wednesday that they will pool up to $50 billion worth of loans in a new joint venture, which would help to lighten their over-burdened balance sheets. The venture, to be administered by a state-owned bank, would sell bonds backed by the loans — a business known in industry jargon as "securitization." While the practice is commonplace in other countries, Germany's experiment is notable both for its size and for its collaborative nature. Analysts said it marked the first radical step by Germany's best-known banks to confront their battery of ailments, which range from mounting bad loans to plummeting profits and share prices. "The banks are showing they're willing to try unorthodox solutions," said David Williams, a banking analyst at Morgan Stanley in London. "They're saying, `our share prices have been killed. We've got to embrace change. We've got to do things that were once unthinkable." Deutsche Bank, Dresdner Bank, Commerzbank, HVB Group, and DZ Bank will pool investment-grade loans in the venture, which is to be run by the state development bank, Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau, or KfW. It could raise up to 5 billion euros through the sale of bonds. Executives at the banks said the proposal was not related to a rumored plan by the German government to set up an entity to take over, and sell off, non-performing loans from the private banks. "This is not a `bad bank,"' said a banker who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This is a 'good bank."' Under the plan, he said, the banks would put their most creditworthy loans into the venture. That would allow KfW, which has a triple-A credit rating, to sell bonds backed by the loans. Because KfW is owned by the state, the government would not tax the banks on the transfer of loans. By moving the loans off the balance sheets of the banks, it would free up capital since the banks would no longer have to back the credit risk of the loans with equity. It would also improve their rates of return for shareholders, which could jolt their dismal share prices. German officials, who had a hand in arranging the joint venture, hope the banks will use their greater financial flexibility to resume lending, particularly to small and medium-sized companies, which have seen their credit dry up as Germany's economy has skirted a recession. "We are very hopeful that this program will help bring about the necessary funds for small and medium-sized companies," Barbara Hendricks, a top official in the finance ministry, said in an interview with Bloomberg. Of the major private banks, only Deutsche Bank managed to eke out a profit in the last year. Bankers must repeatedly deny suggestions that Germany is facing a banking crisis like that in Japan. How Germany can avoid such a crisis has become a topic of heated debate here. The chief executive of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, floated the idea, in a meeting with the German chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, of the government setting up a bank to take over bad loans. Without state intervention, analysts say the prospects for a bank that would take over bad loans is unlikely. "The problem is twofold," Mr. Williams said. "One, the banks have to admit they've got those bad loans. The other problem is that in such a scenario, the shareholder still has to take some pain ultimately."

 

  By: Moderatore on Martedì 15 Aprile 2003 20:52

 

  By: Moderatore on Martedì 15 Aprile 2003 02:42

Allianz, Munich Re to Raise More Funds Than Planned (Update4) By Silje Skogstad Munich, April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Allianz AG, Europe's biggest insurer, and Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurer, will both raise more funds than planned by selling stocks and bonds, suggesting reduced concern about their credit and profit outlook. Allianz on Saturday said it will raise 4.4 billion euros ($4.7 billion) by selling shares to existing investors, more than the 3.5 billion euros to 4 billion euros first targeted. Munich Re sold 20 percent more than planned of bonds denominated in pounds Friday, bringing the total raised to $3.7 billion. Munich Re and Allianz tapped bond and stock investors to replenish capital after a three-year stock slump eroded funds they need to underwrite new business. Both companies lost their top credit ratings last year and their market values have fallen by a combined 98 billion euros since the end of 2001. ``Capital increases and management changes have helped lift investor confidence in European companies lately,'' said Juergen Homola, who helps manage 3 billion euros at Cominvest Asset Management in Frankfurt. Allianz's pricing of the new shares at 38 euros apiece ``is a signal of strength,'' he said. Highlighting the increase in investor confidence since they announced plans to raise funds last month, Allianz and Munich Re shares gained 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively, in the past five days before today. The two stocks are the second- and third- worst performers on the benchmark DAX 30 Index this year. `Positive Reaction' Allianz shares rose 70 cents, or 1.2 percent, to 57.65 euros at 12:13 p.m. in Frankfurt. Munich Re shares gained 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to 72.69 euros after rising as much as 2.2 percent. Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Brian Shea today raised his rating on Allianz shares to ``neutral'' from ``sell,'' citing the ``greater margin of safety to the balance sheet'' from the share sale. Munich Re shares also were upgraded to ``neutral.'' Allianz increased the total volume of the rights offering ``due to the positive market reaction,'' the company said Saturday in a statement to the Frankfurt exchange. Investors can take up their rights to buy seven new shares for every 15 held from April 15 through April 29. The subscription rights will be traded on the stock exchange through April 25. The subscription period ends on the same day Allianz holds its annual shareholders meeting. Michael Diekmann will replace Henning Schulte-Noelle as chief executive officer that day. In addition to restoring capital, Diekmann also faces the challenge of turning around Dresdner Bank AG, analysts said. `Too Risky' ``All things being equal, more equity capital weakens incentives of management to improve operational efficiency,'' said Michael Haid, an analyst at Sal. Oppenheim. ``Allianz's capital structure has become too risky.'' The insurer will sell stock at 38 euros apiece, 33 percent less than Friday's close. That's more than the 30 euros at which Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other banks agreed to underwrite the stock in March and less than the 49 percent discount offered by French reinsurer Scor SA in November. Munich Re, which tapped bond investors only with its fund- raising plan, last week issued 3 billion euros in the largest subordinated debt sale ever by a European insurer after lifting from the 2 billion euros it had marketed. Two days later, it boosted the sale of bonds denominated in pounds. The bond sales may be enough for Munich Re to forestall further credit-rating cuts, though they won't be sufficient for Munich Re to win back its AA+ grade, which it lost last month, analysts said. Nor will it replenish the almost 6 billion euros of capital lost as its stock investments tumbled. Rating Cuts Standard & Poor's last month lowered Allianz's long-term credit and financial strength rating one grade to AA- with a negative outlook as the insurer reported a 1.2 billion-euro loss for 2002, compared with a profit the year before. The share sale is part of a plan to raise about 5 billion euros this year by selling stocks and bonds. The company will give details of a planned subordinated bond sale in the second half, spokesman Stefan Denig said in a telephone interview. Allianz's 2 billion euros of 6.125 percent subordinated unsecured bonds due in 2022 yield 5.36 percent, or 0.6 percentage points more than German government debt of equivalent maturity. That premium, or spread, which narrows as investors become more confident in a company's creditworthiness, has shrunk from 1.25 percentage points in the past four weeks. The bonds are rated A1 by Moody's Investors Service and A by S&P. Severing Ties Munich Re's 3 billion euros of 6.75 percent bonds due in 2023, also unsecured subordinated debt, yield about 6.44 percent, about 1.64 percentage points more than government debt. The bonds are rated A2 by Moody's, and A by S&P. S&P, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings all have negative outlooks on Munich Re, meaning they are more inclined to cut its ratings. The company had a 2.2 billion-euro loss in the fourth quarter after writedowns of 1.4 billion euros. Both Allianz and Munich Re have reduced the share of equities in overall investments to shield against further stock market declines. Munich Re cut stockholdings to 15 percent last year from 33 percent. Allianz's life insurance arm, Allianz Leben, cut the share of stocks to 12.3 percent from 21.7 percent. And to reduce their dependence on each other, the two companies agreed to reduce their cross-shareholdings to 15 percent. They both pared those stakes to less than 20 percent in the first quarter by selling stock on the market.

 

  By: Moderatore on Domenica 30 Marzo 2003 20:09

BANCHE: COMMERZBANK ANNUNCERA' TAGLIO 2.800 DIPENDENTI DOPO IL PRIMO BILANCIO IN PERDITA DELLA SUA STORIA (ANSA-BLOOMBERG) - FRANCOFORTE, 30 MAR - Commerzbank, la quarta banca tedesca per grandezza, potrebbe annunciare lunedi' una taglio di 2.800 dipendenti dopo che lo scorso mese ha diffuso i dati di bilancio del 2002 che per la prima volta nei suoi 133 anni di storia hanno segnato una perdita. La riduzione, che potrebbe essere annunciata domani durante la riunione supervisory board, porterebbe il numero di posti di lavoro eliminati a quota 7.100, con un calo del 19% della forza lavoro che la banca registrava nell' ottobre 2001. Recentemente fonti bene informate avevano annunciato che ulteriori tagliasarebbero stati imminenti. L' amministratore delegato Kaus Peter Mueller sta lavorando alla riduzione dei costi e nella vendita di assets dopo che le perdite nette hanno raggiunto nel 2002 i 298 milioni di euro. I profitti della Commerzbank e delle sue rivali tedeschi si sono ridotti al crescere delle insolvenze, coinvolgendo anche i guadagni di borsa. Ma Mueller ha sostenuto che si aspetta un ritorno in utile della banca gia' da quest' anno. Di diverso parere gli analisti. ''I soli tagli occupazionali non porteranno all' utile prima del 2004 - ha affermato un analista di Monaco della Merck Finck and Co, Konrad Beker - La Commerzbank sta continuano le sue vecchie strategie, solo in modo piu' economico e ridotto, e la domanda base rimane se la banca potra' sopravvivere da sola''. Il supervisory board di domani potrebbe inoltre nominare Eric Strutz, un trentottenne proveniente dal Boston Consultin Group, a capo del settore finanza per rimpiazzare Axel Von Ruedorffer che si ritirera' a maggio. Possibile anche la nomina del 43enne Nichola Teller nel board degli amministratori per supervisionare le societa'-clienti. (ANSA-BLOOMBERG) Modificato da - moderatore on 3/30/2003 19:58:45

 

  By: Sandro Cecconi on Venerdì 28 Febbraio 2003 21:18

E se tale situazione fosse comune ad altri stati europei? Sandro

Banche tedesche - gz  

  By: GZ on Venerdì 28 Febbraio 2003 15:15

In germania si parla di nazionalizzazione strisciante delle tre maggiori banche, HVB, Commerzbank e Dresdner, che è parte di Allianz. Siamo al punto in cui queste tre banche, equivalenti a Intesa, Unicredito e BNL in italia come peso rischiano il crac. D'altra parte come nota Breakingviews in scandinavia c'è stata una situazione simile nei primi anni '90 e anche in america con le casse di risparmio e un salvataggio fatto con intelligenza può funzionare. Un vero segnale d'acquisto per le borse europee sarebbe se i tedeschi trovassero una soluzione a questre tre mega banche che hanno perso in borsa il 90% (vedi sotto Commerzbank). D'altra parte se il governo trova una sol uzione elegante per non farle fallire è chiaro che raddoppiano da qui: Commerzbank da 43 è scesa a 5.8 euro... ------------------------- The German government is thought to be assessing the options for possible involvement in supporting the country’s banks. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder last week met senior executives from Germany’s largest banks. Participants at this meeting are understood to have raised the question of how any potential government bail-out might work. 28 FEB 2003 12:21 The Swedish model German banks: Much has been made of the leaked idea for setting up a "bad bank" to handle Germany's banking crisis. How should the government respond? The crisis primarily afflicts three big private sector banks: HVB, Commerzbank and Dresdner, which is part of Allianz. Most of the other major lenders are already owned by the state. On the basis of published data, none of the Big Three is close to the brink yet. But growing losses are eating fast into their capital. In considering how to handle any putative collapse, the state must decide between three options. These are: to do nothing; to avert matters by dripping in support on an ad hoc basis; or to implement a fully worked-through bail-out. The first is probably too risky. The government would almost certainly not want a major bank go under. But it would be unwise to rely on others to bail out a failing institution. Shares in HVB and Commerzbank have collapsed, suggesting their own investors would be reluctant to help. Meanwhile potential strategic investors - Deutsche Bank and Munich Re - have made it clear they are unwilling to participate in a rescue. The second - dripping in aid on an ad hoc basis - would certainly reduce the chance of a smash. But as the Japanese experience has shown, this might have a less desirable knock-on effect. This would be to encourage banks to hide problems rather than confront them. A decade on, Japan's banks are still in dire straits. Indeed, their problems have mushroomed. The last option is certainly the most politically unpalatable for the government. It means visibly intervening to bail out troubled institutions. But in extremis, it would almost certainly be the least-worst option. At root, the "bad bank" approach would mean exchanging debt guarantees in return for shares in troubled banks. In a worst case, this could result in nationalization. The state would effectively sell off the "good bit" (the shares in the cleaned bank) and use the proceeds to finance the guarantee. This is what happened in Scandinavia in the early 1990s. And Scandinavian banks are now in infinitely better health than their Japanese counterparts. The unpalatable bit for the government is that this approach would require it to put cash on the table up-front - in the hope of recouping something later. Given the scale of Germany's budget deficit problems, this is not a jolly prospect. Of course, it is still possible that Germany's banking problems can be resolved without state intervention. But that can no longer be taken for granted. And if Berlin does get involved, it is to be hoped that the authorities will choose to emulate the Scandinavian, rather than the Japanese, approach. The latter looks the ideal recipe for prolonging and deepening the agony. Author: Jonathan Ford Edited by - gz on 2/28/2003 21:7:2