Scenario di lungo periodo

Dott Zb, Come funziona questo L1 di trimlabs? Sul sito dicono che è la variazione della somma di tutte le azioni disponibili. Ma detto così mi sembra un altro indice ex-post: solo le IPO e gli insider sono in grado di cambiare la torta + le OPA che però devono togliere il titolo dal mercato (ossia il contrario dell'ipo e non come autostrade con il titolo sempre lì). Comunque mi sembra una specia di riassunto globale di quanto successo, non mi sembra un indice con molta capacità prospettica. Dott ZB siamo sempre lì agli interessi e alla liquidità: anche nel sito dicono che tutto dipende dal cash, ma il cash dipende dagli interessi. Chi riesce a prevedere i tassi futuri vince, per questo Greenspan è l'uomo più potente della terra. Oggi ci ho ripensato: se è vero che P/eps = 1 / r allora P = eps/r . Moltiplico per il numero delle azioni e ottengo (ovviamente) che la capitalizzazione di borsa di una singola azione è = utile /r. Ora Sommo per tutte le azioni e vedi che la BORSA globale altro non è che = (somma utili di tutte le aziende)/r. Il numeratore è in mano a una milionata di variabili e quindi di persone. Il denominatore è, INCREDIBILMENTE, in mano ad un'unica persona, oltretutto non eletta.

Sul dax mi piazzo a 2875 per lo short, 15/20 ticks di gain e 100 di stop. Paola

Di report e di indicatori ce ne sono tanti al mondo e ognuno sceglie quelli che preferisce. Sarebbe bello che convergessero quasi tutti Ad ogni modo sia il COT che l'indice di volatilità VIX che questa somma dei flussi di liquidità di TrimTabs sono stati menzionati qui in passato. TrimTabs alla fine fa una cosa semplice, somma tutte i flussi che entrano o escono in borsa e se il saldo è positivo come in marzo ad es da un buy e se è negativo un sell (vedi la colonna sottolineata "L1 Net Float..") Come si vede gli Insider stanno però vendendo come saldo, non comprando, ma per una cifra piccola in valore assoluto, quindi sommandoli con il resto viene fuori un saldo di liquidità positivo per la borsa americana Se il flottante non aumenta (perchè non ci sono IPO da mesi) e anzi cala perchè ci sono ora molti buyback delle aziende e qualche Opa con contanti e dall'altra parte arrivano soldi nei fondi comuni dovrebbe aumentare la domanda e diminuire l'offerta. E quindi il prezzo aumentare cioè la borsa. Come idea sarebbe logica

Io inizierei ad escludere dagli acquisti insiders i buy backs che se qualcuno continua a camuffarli per operazioni insiding o mente o è dannatamente ingenuo. Dopo due anni di maxi truffe, spero che si sia capito che il buy backs delle aziende - esercitati in periodi di particolare declino del corso dei titoli - servono esclusivamente a consentire il successivo esercizio delle stock options. Che, tra parentesi, continuano ad essere assurdamente generose, come cerco da mesi di far capire leggendo i movimenti insiding di INTC.

Se qcn ha idea di come sia possibile questa discrepanza, gli sarò grato assai. Intanto guardavo il vix (a 24.27 ) che dice: troppi stanno aspettando fiduciosamente la seconda gamba del rialzo. 2ali

Sugli insider abbiamo dati discordanti: stando a quello che leggo ^qui#http://insider.thomsonfn.com/tfn/insider.asp?imodule=mktTearsheet^ nel mese di aprile abbiamo anzi avuto una situazione senza precedenti, con gli insider che hanno davvero venduto per controvalori spaventosi con un sell/buy ratio per controvalore superiore a 23 (hanno venduto per un controvalore 23 volte superiore a quanto hanno comprato) per quel che riguarda le large cap.

Tornando stasera vedo il report ultimo di Biederman, specializzato nel calcolo dei flussi di liquidità in borsa, cioè nel calcolo di quanti miliardi entrano e escono dalla borsa americana tramite buy back, IPO e OPA, acquisti di insiders... Biederman annuncia ora un nuovo mercato toro perchè sia le aziende che gli insiders da marzo comprano. E dopo 10 mesi di deflussi il pubblico è tornato a mettere soldi in fondi azionari ($10.5 miliardi in un mese). I fondi pensione si sono scaricati ecc.. Sono anche riportati i segnali precedenti del modello di Biederman (sono segnali che durano mesi, non settimane in ogni caso) -------------------------------------------------------------- NEW BULL MARKET LIKELY BEGAN WHEN IRAQI INCURSION STARTED. BOTH COMPANIES & INDIVIDUALS HAVE BEEN BIG NET BUYERS SINCE MARCH 14. L1, the estimated net change in the trading float of shares was relatively neutral during the holiday shortened week ending Wednesday, April 16. However if Thursday, April 17 was included, L1 would have had a more bullish flavor; since on that day there were no new offerings, over $500 million in new stock buybacks and a $285 million new cash takeover, Port Financial. There were just $1.1 billion of new offerings all of last week, the least since early January, and Dealogic says this week has little currently scheduled - although big overnights are possible. Since the Iraqi incursion started mid-March (we don't use the word War since it was no contest) L1 has been bullish to the tune of something over $7 billion. L1 is proven to be the best leading indicator of future market direction. When L1 is bullish and individuals are bearish, as was the case between July 2002 and March 2003, that is a turning point. However, when both companies and individuals are net buyers - more money looking to buy fewer shares - which is what is happening right now, that is known as a bull market. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM - WHICH NOW SAYS ECONOMY WEAK & STOCKS OVERVALUED - WRONG AGAIN. We don't believe that there are any other market strategists out there who are saying that a new bull market has begun. We don't know how long the upturn will last, but at least through early 2004 is our current best guess. Conventional wisdom says that the US economy is mired in a "jobless recovery." Many perma-bears continue to harp on the overvaluation of the market --- particularly tech stocks. WE TURNED BEARISH IN OCTOBER 2001 - TOO EARLY. Back in October 2001, we turned bearish when corporate buying stopped and heavy selling began. We were wrong, but basically too early. At the start of December 2001 we doubled up on our bearish position. Back then conventional wisdom said the 9/11 caused economic downturn would soon end in a" V" shaped recovery. We disagreed with conventional wisdom. Withheld income and employment taxes - the correlate of wages and salaries received by the 100 million workers on regular payrolls, adjusted for lower rates in 2002 - turned lower on a year over year basis starting at the end of September 2001 and didn't turn up until July 2002. We made a year-end 2001 bet with a semi-famous market strategist that the US stock market would drop below the September 2001 lows by the end of the 1Q of 2002. We lost the bet only because we were early again. WE TURNED BULLISH EARLY IN JULY 2002 - TWO WEEKS TOO SOON. Companies have been net buyers of their own shares ever since July 2002. That same July both individual withholding and corporate income tax payments turned positive year over year. We first turned bullish early in July two weeks before the big rally. Early in August, we personally were buyers of many a broken tech stock, some of which we already have traded out of. WE CHANGED STANCES SIX TIMES LAST FIVE MONTHS OF 2002 - ALL PROFITABLE -- FOR 74% FULL YEAR GAIN. While L1 was net bullish since July of last year, we successfully traded the ups and downs using both changes in L1 from bullish to bearish as well as the high levels of individual fear at bottoms; as evidenced by surging equity fund outflows and high investor bearish readings in the AAII weekly survey. Even though many a broken tech stock bottomed in July-August of 2002, the indices didn't bottom until early October 2002 right after a near record spike in equity fund outflows and bearish AAII sentiment reading. For all of 2002 our model paper portfolio - where trades only take place at the closing price for the week - was up 74%. So far this year we are up just 8.2%, while more than the S&P 500 less than the 10% for the NDX. The reason for the relatively laggard return was that while liquidity was positive in February and March, the market sold off due to pre-war jitters. When the fear left the market mid-March, first companies started buying heavily and now it appears that individuals have returned. PENSION FUNDS NOT REBALANCING. NOW HAVE LESS EQUITIES TO ASSETS THAN AT MARKET TOP. Pension fund managers have never been called, "the bold and the reckless." After two big bouts of rebalancing, first during the 4Q of 2001 and then during the 3Q and 4Q of 2002 - which might turn out better than they think -- pension funds have turned chicken. Right when the market is taking off, they have stopped buying. There currently is very little rebalancing going on. What's more reading Dave Kovaleski's recent offering in the April 14, 2003 issue of Pensions & Investments, it appears as if many pension funds are reducing equity allocations rather than rebalance. The article quotes Goldman Sachs' Joanne Hill saying that, ".about 50% of large corporate pension funds are conducting asset allocation reviews, with an eye towards reducing risk as well as investing in alternative asset classes, actively managed portfolios and absolute return strategies. 'Some of the plans that were aggressively rebalancing last year are holding back this year,' said Ms. Hill. For many, this would be the third year they've had to buy equities after rebalancing to target levels, and they just don't want to do so.'" WHAT BETTER BULLISH CALL THAN PENSION FUNDS TURNING CHICKEN? While we don't have the actual data, obviously pension funds had a record high equities to total assets ratio in early 2000. Since then the equity ratio has dropped off. Now that pension funds are estimated to be receiving about $100 billion in new cash this year, that most of that won't go into equities is a bullish contrary indicator. If, as and when the stock market rises substantially from current levels, at that point pension funds are likely to start increasing their equity allocation. That new cash then will provide further fuel for taking stock prices even higher. There are some who are saying that global pension funds have been net sellers of US equities over the past four weeks - the main reason that the US market is only up 12%. That could explain the shallow gains. THEY'RE BACK! $8.7 BILLION POURS INTO EQUITY FUNDS HOLIDAY SHORTENED WEEK. After ten months of mostly continuous outflows from equity funds, fund investors have decided to get immersed in the stock market; as a huge estimated $8.7 billion poured into equity funds, $6.6 billion into US, over the holiday shortened four day period between Friday April 11 and Wednesday, April 16. Perhaps that April 15 was tax day influenced the flow. However, during the same year ago week equity funds had an estimated $0 net flow - nothing in nor out. The big recipients were tech funds. Tech funds we track daily with $31 billion in assets got $147 million of new cash the last four days. Other sectors doing well included Large Cap Value and Large Cap Growth. Even with the boom in equities, bond funds got $1.6 billion. US EQUITY FUNDS HAVE HAD ESTIMATED $10.5 BILLION INFLOW 5-WEEKS SINCE MARCH 14. US equity funds have now had five straight weeks of estimated inflows, totaling $10.5 billion. For the first time in several years L1 and L2 are marching in the same direction. However, given that spikes in flows usually signal a short term trading reversal, is the market due for a sell-off? We don't think so. The reason: Over the last two weeks the S&P 500 is up just 2% over the past two weeks and 12% since the March 11 close. WE REVISE MARCH FLOW ESTIMATE TO $0 US FROM -$5.6 BILLION. In March the US equity funds we track daily had hefty outflows. Our tracked funds have $314 billion in assets, 14% of the ICI total universe of $2.2 trillion. In mid-April Vanguard and Fidelity reported that in March that their US equity funds had a net inflow of $4 billion combined. Three Vanguard funds had a total inflow of $2 billion by themselves. It is possible that some of those funds got money being switched out of others. Regardless, we are boosting our flow estimate to $0 for US from an estimated -$5.6 billion outflow. The possibility of a hefty variance from our estimate is high. CORPORATE TAX SURPRISINGLY SURGES 22%. WAGES & SALARIES UP 6.2% PAST FORTNIGHT. Withheld income and employment taxes collected from about 100 million US workers surged 6.2% over the last two weeks, coinciding with the realization that the fears of terrorism, etc. as an outgrowth from the Iraqi incursion were overblown. The four-week gain - which includes the two weeks when the outcome was relatively uncertain - was an impressive 2.9% over the comparable year ago period. Even more impressive was the 22% gain in corporate income taxes over the April 15 week. That's the first gain in 2003 in year over year corporate collections, despite lower corporate tax rates this year than the first half of 2002 due to changes in depreciation, etc. Surging incomes are a leading indicator for a pickup in corporate buying. A pickup in corporate buying is always a good leading indicator for higher stock prices ahead. BOTTOM LINE: WE REMAIN FULLY BULLISH. HEFTY CORPORATE BUYING, SURGING INCOMES HELP MAKE A SPIKE IN INFLOWS TOLERABLE. We remain bullish, although we thought about turning aggressively bullish. Why aggressive starts with the surge in year over year income gains. That surge says that the lid placed upon the economy by war fears has dissipated. L1 has also improved to a bullish -$7 billion over the last five weeks. The one concern we have is the spike in inflows. Historically a spike in inflows has almost always been a market top. The few times they weren't was at the early stage of a bull run. We think that's where we are now.However, we will wait one more week. If corporate buying remains strong and selling weak, then we will turn aggressively bullish. Another concern about a short term top is that the volatility index, the VIX, is down to 25, the lowest since the 20.28 reached May 17 when the S&P 500 topped out at 1100. However, the AAII survey shows 31.5% of respondents are still bearish and less than half, 46.3%, are bullish. If there is a rally early this week, and inflows spike even higher, then we would expect a correction by week's end. Of that were to happen, then we would turn aggressively bullish next week. KEY CAVEAT: BE WARY OF A SPIKE IN OVERNIGHT NEW OFFERINGS & SLUMP IN CORPORATE BUYING. The key caveat remains to be wary of a spike in overnight new offerings and a slump in corporate buying. Several large convertibles for many billions is possible given the outrageous terms buyers are will to accept. Also corporate buying could slump. However, a surge in selling and a decline in corporate buying would have to last for two weeks before we backed down to cautiously bullish. MUTUAL FUNDS FLOW FOR April 17, 2003 ALL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: OUTFLOW $4132.2 million NAV UP 1.7% US EQUITY FUNDS FLOW: OUTFLOW $2740.8 million BREADTH: NEGATIVE 30 OUT versus 13 IN NAV: UP 1.8% INT'L EQUITY FUNDS FLOW: OUTFLOW $1391.4 million BREADTH: NEGATIVE 25 OUT versus 2 IN NAV: UP 1.1% BONDS & HYBRID: FLOW: INFLOW $526.4 million NAV: UP 0.3% L1: NET FLOAT -$646 MLN NEW ANNOUNCED CASH TAKEOVERS: $320 MLN COMPLETED CASH TAKEOVERS: $0 MLN NEW STOCK BUYBACKS $533 MLN NEW OFFERINGS: $0 MLN INSIDER SELLING $100 MLN L2: US EQUITY FUND FLOW -$2,741 MLN

forse non si e' visto, ma la FED ha gia' alzato i tassi. 2 giorni fa mi pare. ha portato i tassi di cui godevano le banche con situazioni creditorie difficili al livello di tutte le altre banche. ora...non ricordo il nome di quei tassi speciali lì... e proprio ieri ha parlato - sempre la FED - di un prevedibile calo dei consumi nella seconda meta' dell'anno. motivo: i mutui casa. e' un po' quello che diceva Stiglitz: aver incoraggiato il settore immobiliare agisce come uno stimolo di breve, ma al tempo stesso come un freno di lungo. tagli una fetta del reddito per molto, molto tempo. milioni di americani si stanno comprando la casa. senza contare quelli che si stanno comprando la casa e nel frattempo perdono il posto.

minchia che rrrideree ;)

Appunto: l'ennesima beffa... :-)))

comunque 13 punti e 5 giornate dalla fine non l'aveva ancora vinto.

Ehi Michelino, risolvo io il tuo problema... Sostituisci la 9 con la seguente: 9 - a maggio, mentre l'Inter guida il campionato con 13 punti di vantaggio a 5 giornate dalla fine il campionato si interrompe pr mancanza di soldi

"la 9. non ha chance" --------------------- apposta e' una sorpresa. comunque lo yoga non spaventa solo lei. a me lo consigliano perche' sembra che aumenti la capacita' polmonare e rilassi i muscoli eccetera. ma non dicono se fa morire di noia. questo e' il punto.

la 9. non ha chance ho provato un corso di yoga quando subito dopo la laurea ero un poco esaurito e mi innervosivano tremendamente tutti quei tempi morti di cui non si capiva il motivo

Grazie per Byron Wien, un grande. Aggiungo le Ten Surprises 2003 di Michelino, cioe' mie. 1- Guerra all'Iraq con notevoli perdite occidentali. Polemiche sull'atteggiamento dell'Inghilterra. Vittoria sudata. 2- Governo Pera. 3- Cattura di Saddam da parte dei berretti verdi. Euforia a Wall Street. Coalizione guidata da Chabali. 4- Petrolio stabile fra 35$ e 40$, dollaro/euro 1.10, oro 385$, tiene la bolla immobiliare, Dow Jones che oscilla fra i 6000 e i 7000 punti. 5- Disoccupazione usa in crescita costante, consumi in netto calo nel secondo semestre. 6- Attentato a Bush, che si salva. 7- Dimissioni di Schroeder. 8- Guerra Israele-Siria. 9- Zibordi lascia la borsa e si iscrive a un corso di yoga. 10- Il maestro del corso di yoga e' Byron Wien. Modificato da - Michelino di Notredame on 1/7/2003 21:4:33