By: GZ on Mercoledì 07 Maggio 2003 12:13
Il dollaro va a picco e la borsa se ne infischia.
I bond salgono su dati economici incerti e non fa una piega.
L'interrogativo che tiene tutti in ansia è :
che il mercato non si sia travestito da toro senza dire niente a nessuno (per qualche mese) ?
Su questo tema un commento settimanale molto ben fatto (free tra l'altro) è quello di Hussman, uno che ha avuto una delle newsletter più di successo negli anni '90, poi ha creato un fondo da circa 400 milioni di $ e continua ad andare bene. Una volta alla settimana spiega cosa sta facendo.
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http://www.hussman.com/hussman/members/updates/latest.htm
Sunday May 4, 2003 : Weekly Market Comment
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
The Market Climate for stocks remains characterized by unfavorable valuations but favorable trend uniformity, placing us solidly in a constructive position. At present, the Strategic Growth Fund is fully invested in a diversified portfolio of favored stocks, with about 28% of that value hedged against the impact of market fluctuations. The extent of that hedge will vary depending on a wide range of technical and economic factors, but given current valuations, I don't anticipate being less than about 20% hedged, nor more than about 40% hedged so long as trend uniformity remains favorable.
Importantly, the fact that we have a modest hedge in place means that we expect less volatility than a fully unhedged position might experience, but it does not imply that the Fund will necessarily lag market advances. Recall that the Fund's performance over the past few years has been achieved while being fully hedged against the impact of market fluctuations, but never net short. Nearly all of the Fund's gains since inception can be traced to the fact that our favored stocks have strongly outperformed the market over time. Keep in mind that the Fund's overall performance is driven by stock selection as well as market exposure.
As always, our willingness to take a constructive stance here should not be interpreted as a forecast or a "bullish call." Nor should it be considered a change in strategy. We continue to faithfully execute the approach articulated in our Prospectus. This is quite emphatically a growth strategy, with added emphasis on defending capital in unfavorable market conditions (defined by the combination of valuation and trend uniformity). While the short term consequences of our actions will vary based on factors we can't control, we relentlessly follow the same discipline, and the same set of daily actions. We look for opportunities to buy higher ranked candidates on short-term weakness, replace lower ranked holdings on short-term strength, and align our overall exposure to market risk with the prevailing Market Climate.
Our presently constructive position is based on prevailing conditions, and our investment position will shift when we identify a shift in those conditions. I have no idea when that will occur. On average, stocks perform well when trend uniformity is favorable (though best when valuations are favorable as well). When trend uniformity is favorable, I generally expect surprises in earnings, the market, and the economy to be on the favorable side. But since I have no idea when trend uniformity will shift, it is impossible to form any sort of meaningful forecast even a few weeks or months into the future.
As soon as an investor begins to believe that the market will follow a specific scenario or prediction, and takes positions on that basis, that investor takes off on a roller coaster of hope, pride, elation, fear, greed, insecurity, and ultimately frustration. From that point on, rather than simply acting on the basis of a clear-headed appreciation of reality at each moment, the investor pits reality against a preconceived expectation of it; begins looking for evidence to support a particular outlook; faces each setback with confusion about whether to dig in or bail out. Instead of focusing on what the investor can actually control - present actions based on present realities as they unfold, the entire investment plan rides on a scenario that the investor can only hope for. That's a great recipe for insomnia, but not a great plan for investment success.
Our discipline doesn't require us to disregard the future, but simply to recognize that the future will be made from a series of present moments. You can set goals, create strategies for how to respond to various events, take account of the big picture, study and learn from the past, and plan for the future. But the only point at which action can be taken is in the present, and the only basis for those actions should be reality as it actually exists. The way to properly understand reality is to give up preconceptions, to look deeply and from all sides, and to consider evidence you would prefer to ignore. Then, as the Buddhists teach, by taking good care of the present, with a clear understanding of reality, you already take good care of the future.
I write a great deal about the daily actions that I take in managing the Funds, because as investors, as well as as humans, we are what we habitually do. By design, for instance, many of the daily actions I've defined for our approach have the effect of buying short-term weakness, selling short-term strength, buying undervalue, selling overvalue, buying market action that conveys favorable information, selling market action that conveys unfavorable information, and managing risk throughout. I never imagine that the actions I take on a given day will necessarily produce a positive short-term result. In the markets, as in life, the consequences of both good actions and bad ones go far beyond what we immediately observe. Whatever consequences we enjoy or suffer over time are the fruits of countless seeds planted day after day. So we focus on choosing and tending to those seeds rather than demanding a daily harvest. But those seeds make a difference. Whether the seeds are discipline or carelessness, kindness or hate, moderation or extremism, peace or war, justice or revenge, the seeds determine the fruit. Our actions are the only things that we control; that we own; that we are; that we become.
Oh man, I've turned into a hippie.
Currently, we're constructive because while the market remains overvalued in terms of long-term investment merit, favorable trend uniformity indicates that investors have developed a robust willingness to take market risk. Favorable trend uniformity also contains information that investors expect economic improvement (witness for example, strong narrowing of credit spreads between risky corporate debt and default-free Treasuries).
Market action is forward-looking. In contrast, both consumer confidence and unemployment are lagging indicators. So present conditions are very consistent with improvement in the economy. Though a massive current account deficit and a continuing debt overhang both suggest that growth is unlikely to be very strong, there is still a good prospect for improvement from current levels of activity. We don't rely on economic forecasts, however - the fact that trend uniformity is measurably favorable today is enough to warrant a constructive position today.
But what about the bearish arguments? Certainly the market is overbought here, to an extent equal to what we've seen at the peaks of several failed bear market rallies in recent years. Moreover, the market has just entered the seasonally unfavorable May-October time period. And with the price/peak earnings multiple on the S&P at 17 (versus a historical average of 14 and a historical median of 11), stocks are no bargain either. Don't these factors support a bearish stance?
The answer is simple. The market's response to valuation, overbought conditions and seasonal factors is markedly different when trend uniformity is favorable than when it is negative.
It's very true that the market has typically performed better during the November-April period (18.1% annualized total return in the S&P 500, since 1945), than during the May-October stretch (7.4% annualized). But this performance breaks into a much different profile when the status of trend uniformity is considered. During the seasonally favorable November-April period, weeks when trend uniformity was favorable (as of the prior Friday) historically generated an average annualized return of 27.8%, while unfavorable trend uniformity produced an average gain of just 0.4% annualized. Likewise, during the seasonally unfavorable May-October period, favorable trend uniformity produced an average annualized gain of 17.6%, while unfavorable trend uniformity produced an average loss of -8.5% annualized.
In short, seasonality has historically had a measurable impact on market returns, but it is not sufficient reverse the favorable or unfavorable implications of trend uniformity. Similarly, unfavorable valuation creates only a modest drag on returns when trend uniformity is favorable, even in combination with unfavorable seasonality.
Meanwhile, the market is clearly overbought by most measures. But as I noted last week, the trading behavior of the market also differs depending on the Market Climate. In a Climate characterized by both unfavorable valuations and unfavorable trend uniformity, overbought conditions are often followed by vertical plunges, while oversold conditions are at best points to close out a few shorts - rarely to establish long positions.
In contrast, the current Market Climate tends to be kind to a buy-on-dips approach, while overbought conditions tend to be followed by flat periods rather than deep declines. That's not to say that the market can't sell off substantially, but the rare oversold conditions that do occur in the current Market Climate tend to be good buying opportunities.
Friday's action was noteworthy. For several weeks, the Dow Jones Industrials had failed to confirm the break of the March highs enjoyed by the Transportation average. This little Dow Theory tidbit may seem arcane, but to a few analysts, including Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters, that divergent "nonconfirmation" was a source of lingering concern. Though Friday's breakout was somewhat late in coming, it largely made up for that by being powerfully decisive.
On a very short-term basis, important breakouts - whether from extended periods of consolidation, major moving averages, or classic chart patterns - often whipsaw back through the critical level before continuing. I don't put much forecasting credence in simple technical action, but it's useful to be aware of this tendency. For instance, when the market pierces decisively through the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern, it often spikes back up above the neckline before continuing lower (something you might call a "breakout fake-out"). Similarly, the critical level for the Dow was its March 21st high of 8521.97. Following Friday's breakout, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Dow drop at least briefly below this level, to clear the overbought condition created by the breakout. We certainly wouldn't take any sort of investment position on that expectation, but it's always good to allow for this kind of action rather than risk being shaken out by short-term volatility.
In bonds, the Market Climate is also characterized by unfavorable valuations and favorable trend uniformity. However, since bonds tend to experience less durable speculative periods than stocks, favorable trend uniformity alone is not sufficient to take a great deal of maturity risk. Accordingly, we continue to hold a fairly short maturity profile, and the long-term bonds we do hold are generally of the inflation-protected variety. A side effect of favorable trend uniformity in stocks is that economic surprises tend to be loaded on the upside. But because low inflation and interest rates have been largely due to a "flight to safety" into government securities (including currency), upside surprises in the economy are likely to translate fairly quickly into upside surprises in inflation and short-term interest rates (even barring any tightening action by the Fed, which is unlikely).
In summary, the overall profile of market and economic conditions has shifted to the constructive side. This doesn't mean that long-term fundamentals have improved measurably. Rather, favorable trend uniformity changes the way that these fundamentals can be expected to evolve over the near-term. As usual, we don't require forecasts. Based on current, identifiable conditions, we are constructively (though not aggressively) positioned in stocks, and relatively neutral (though not strongly defensive) in bonds.