By: GZ on Mercoledì 14 Febbraio 2007 14:19
Insisto su questo perchè ha implicazioni per tutti i mercati ed è solo il caso più clamoroso.
Con il senno di poi sarebbe stato bello accorgersene tre anni fa e aver puntato tutto sulla Spagna, anche se sono due anni ormai che si moltiplicano gli allarmi e non succede niente. Sono mesi che leggi pezzi come questo sul Wall Street Journal che dipinge un immagine positiva delle maggiori società spagnole in quanto si sono diversificate nelle utilities ecc... e però menziona anche di passaggio che: ci sono TRE MILIONI DI ABITAZIONI SFITTE (!)
=>....sono state costruite ad esempio 700 mila case solo nel 2006, tre volte quante ne sono state costruite negli USA in percentuale della popolazione (e in America c'è un attimo forse più di spazio)
=> ....negli ultimi 10 anni TUTTO L'AUMENTO NETTO DI POSTI DI LAVORO NELLA UE E' DOVUTO AL SETTORE COSTRUZIONI SPAGNOLO !
che conta per il 10-17% del PIL (in america per il 6%, in Italia per il 3%)..
Se in Italia ci mettessimo a costruire 6-700 mila case l'anno per 5 anni di fila il nostro PIL crescerebbe al 4%... e voilà..sei l'economia più dinamica della UE
Dicono che il boom era dovuto alla domanda di casa creata dall'immigrazione... peccato che sia esattamente a rovescio, il denaro facile induce a speculare sull'immobiliare, a costruire, si fanno entrare due milioni di immigrati per lavorare, poi quando finisce la festa hai 3 milioni di case sfitte e centinaia di migliaia di immigrati che non sanno cosa fare..
------------
..In 2006, Spain built about 750,000 homes, three times as many per person as the U.S. The construction sector accounts for between 10% and 17% of the Spanish economy -- depending on how it is measured -- and Spanish construction jobs accounted for almost all net new jobs created among the original 15 members of the European Union in the past decade. Over that period, Spain's economy grew 3.6% on average per year, compared with about 1.5% for the EU. Spain's Finance Ministry expects growth of about 3.8% in 2007.
..
-------------------------------------------
Solid Foundation Braces Spain
Building Boom Nears End,
But Diversity Gives Companies Shelter
January 31, 2007
MADRID -- Fifteen years ago, when a building boom in Spain soured, the fortunes of Santander fell, too, as loan defaults piled up from the big bank's mostly Spanish customers.
Today, Spain faces the end of an even bigger building boom that has kept its economy on a decade-long expansion, with growth rates more than double the euro-zone average. But this time, Banco Santander Central Hispano SA, now the world's ninth-largest bank, has little to fear: Its operations reach from Latin America to the U.S. and England, and fewer than a fifth of its loans are in Spanish hands.
Santander's diversification mirrors a transformation that has taken place across Spain's corporate landscape, as both large and small companies used a domestic housing surge to catapult themselves into the ranks of global players.
Many economists caution that Spain's economy has become too dependent on construction and real estate, and that the building slowdown could send shock waves through the rest of the economy. At the same time, however, the building boom has allowed the Spanish economy -- and Spanish companies -- to mature at a pace that wouldn't have been achievable otherwise. Spain's recipe of literally building its way to greater prosperity could have implications for economies throughout Eastern Europe, which have older and more battered infrastructures than their richer, Western neighbors, and which are looking for a path to quick growth.
Twenty-five years ago, Spain was an economic minnow still emerging from almost 40 years under Francoism. It had no global companies, no Frank Gehry-designed museum, and at best was a low-cost European vacation stop. With one of the lowest per-capita incomes in Europe, the country's best path out of poverty was to start building.
Today, Spain has the world's ninth-biggest economy, largely thanks to the building bonanza, which has left the country crisscrossed by new highways and railroads, and flowering with new housing projects and ambitious public-works projects.
Ferrovial now operates London's Heathrow Airport
The scope and 11-year duration of the Spanish building boom dwarfs anything seen in the U.S. In 2006, Spain built about 750,000 homes, three times as many per person as the U.S. The construction sector accounts for between 10% and 17% of the Spanish economy -- depending on how it is measured -- and Spanish construction jobs accounted for almost all net new jobs created among the original 15 members of the European Union in the past decade. Over that period, Spain's economy grew 3.6% on average per year, compared with about 1.5% for the EU. Spain's Finance Ministry expects growth of about 3.8% in 2007.
But there are signs that the boom is running out of steam. Many public projects such as highways and bridges were co-financed by billions in EU subsidies, which will end this year. More than three million houses lie empty, and house prices rose just 9.6% last year, the smallest increase in six years. Real-estate promoters are giving away garages or upgraded kitchens as teasers to prospective buyers.
One of Inditex's Zara stores in Shanghai
All these factors suggest that supply may be finally catching up with demand. Last week, a report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that developments in Spain's housing market "remain disturbing." Even so, many Spanish corporations will be able to withstand such a slowdown much better than in the past.
"It's a totally different country than it was" in 1992 when the end of a previous building boom threw Spain into recession with 25% unemployment, says Juan José Toribio, a professor of economics at IESE business school in Madrid. Because of the current building boom, which was partly fueled by heavy immigration, "Spain has a more flexible labor market, and an entrepreneurial class that just didn't exist before," in addition to more international companies, he says.
The boom filled order books and boosted profits, making builders bigger and more powerful. As it continued, many builders began looking to hedge their bets by diversifying into new activities and markets. And many banks and retailers chose to expand geographically.
Grupo Ferrovial SA -- once a construction firm -- diversified into infrastructure management in developed countries in the late 1990s. Now, after a raft of international deals, it is the world's biggest private infrastructure manager. Ferrovial runs airports in London, including Heathrow, and toll roads in Chicago and Toronto.
An Acciona solar farm in Nevada
Fellow builder Acciona SA has largely shed its construction roots to become one of the world's leading renewable-energy firms, and runs wind farms on three continents. For Juan Manuel Entrecanales, Acciona's chairman, the company's reinvention from bricks to windmills mirrors the country's transformation.
"Renewables are one of the new motors of the Spanish economy," he says, pointing to their skilled work force, strong technology, and healthy dose of research-and-development investment. Acciona late last year took a 21% stake in Endesa SA, Spain's biggest power company, in a bid to become a global player in energy.
Other builders, such as Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA, or ACS, plied construction earnings into new sectors such as energy. ACS has stakes in Spain's second- and third-biggest power companies. Sacyr Vallehermoso SA, another builder, has branched out into oil and gas, taking a 20% stake in Repsol YPF SA.
Metrovacesa SA, which got its start decades ago as a discount cement broker, became the euro zone's largest real-estate company after an €8 billion ($10.4 billion) takeover of France's Gesina, a corporate-property manager, in late 2005
