Come mai la prima reazione è positiva - gz
By: GZ on Lunedì 17 Marzo 2003 18:02
Come mai (per ora) persino la prima reazione del mercato è positiva alla guerra ?
(anche io temevo un primo contraccolpo negativo per poi partire in su e sono sorpreso per ora positivamente)
Leggere cosa succede nella realtà in medio oriente
I paesi arabi stanno facendo a gara per chiedere di partecipare alle operazioni militari e aiutare gli anglo-americani
E non ci sono neppure proteste o manifestazioni perchè Saddam è uno dei personaggi più odiati della storia
La sensazione è che tutto il medio oriente collabori e che quindi sia più facile del previsto
Arab Nations Hop Off Fence To Join US, Not Iraq
(From The Wall Street Journal)
By Yaroslav Trofimo
Kuwait City, Kuwait -- AS THE U.S. and some of its traditional European allies split over the use of military force against Iraq, a surprising degree of acquiescence to a war has emerged in the region that would be most affected: the Arab world itself. With as little as days before an invasion could begin, cooperation from America's Arab partners has exceeded Washington's expectations. The U.S. military is receiving tangible help from all the Persian Gulf monarchies, Jordan and Egypt. With the notable exception of Syrian President Bashar Assad, most Arab governments -- even those that maintain public opposition to the invasion have quietly positioned themselves to be in America's good graces after a
For many Arab rulers, earning credit in Washington by providing help with Iraq
is viewed as the best way to stave off American pressure for "regime change" in
their own lands. But their support is also made possible by a turnaround in Arab
public opinion: Unlike in the 1991 Gulf War, few Arabs admire Saddam Hussein nowadays, and some of Iraq's former backers, such as Jordan, now firmly belong to the American camp. True, most Arabs dislike the idea of the U.S. invading an Arab state, says
Gehad Auda, a professor of international relations at Helwan University in Cairo. But, unlike many Europeans, they also recognize the horrors of Mr.Hussein's rule. "Everybody knows about his brutality now, every man on the street." It is this awareness that explains the Arabs'lackluster opposition to war, Mr. Auda says. "We cannot really take a firm stand because the case is good on both sides."
That lack of firmness was apparent in the nearly comical labors of the Arab League's peace team on Iraq. The group, comprising foreign ministers from Bahrain, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Tunisia, has traveled to the U.S. to meet Secretary of State Colin Powell, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan and others in a bid to prevent war. But, as the Arab delegation was about to head to Baghdad last week with a message from the international community to Mr.
Hussein, Syria demurred, saying the delegation should display solidarity with
Iraq instead. The mission quickly collapsed as a contemptuous Iraq simply refused to admit the Arab ministers.
For the pro-U.S. Arab regimes, most of them unelected, self-preservation is a clear reason for siding with Washington. U.S. officials have been championing for months a domino theory under which democratization in Iraq will set off a chain reaction across the Arab world -- a theme raised in a recent speech by President Bush himself.
"All the Arab regimes are afraid of America's attention in the future," says
Dia Rashwan, a scholar at the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic
Studies in Cairo. "So it's difficult for the Arab regimes to say no to America in deeds, even though some are saying no in words." That's why the Egyptian government, while filling a stadium with an officially
organized protest against the war this month, also opened the Suez Canal and its
airspace to the U.S. Navy and Air Force, and instructed the state-controlled media to print commentaries sharply critical of the Iraqi leader. It's also the reason that Saudi Arabia turned over to the U.S. military an entire airport in the northern city of Arar, ostensibly for "humanitarian operations," and allowed the use of another one in Tabuk, in addition to permitting an expanded U.S. presence at the Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh.
"Saudi Arabia doesn't want war, but it has to consider the importance of its
special relations and alliance with America, and its desire to see a Saddam-free
Iraq," says Jamal Khashoggi, chief editor of the kingdom's popular al Watan newspaper. All the other Gulf monarchies are helping the U.S. war machine in one way or another. Kuwait, the main staging ground for a land attack, even barred its own citizens from the northern half of the country, where some 150,000 American and British troops gear up for war. There has been little protest against such displacement, or against the fact that the emirate looks like an occupied land as U.S. soldiers riding gunshot atop Humvee vehicles patrol Kuwaiti highways.
The Kuwaiti establishment went out of its way to welcome the U.S. troops, minimizing the recent shooting attacks on U.S. servicemen and voicing approval of a war to remove the Iraqi regime. "The Americans are very popular here right now," says Ahmed al-Rubei, a Kuwaiti parliament member. "They liberated us, and we don't forget."
It remains unclear how much this cooperation by America's Arab allies will be rewarded with a future influence in Iraqi affairs. The Gulf monarchies and Egypt have clear interests in what kind of regime will evolve in Iraq; for instance, they wouldn't want a Baghdad government controlled by the Shiite majority, or one that offers a haven for democracy activists from other Arab lands, or breaks with the Arab consensus over Israel.
"Iraq is not an easy country. It is easy to win a war there, but for the peace and stability afterward you need the help of other countries," Kuwait's Mr. Rubei says. "That's why it is in the interests of the U.S. to cooperate with the Arabs on this."
But it is far from certain that Washington wants such help -- a point emphasized by Syria's President Assad, who lambasted the other Arab states for offering their facilities for war on Iraq in a speech last week. Mr. Assad added caustically, and probably correctly, that the only reason no Arab army is joining a U.S.-led invasion force is because, unlike in 1991, Washington doesn't want the Arab forces around.
"America is not allowing anyone [from the Arab world] to participate because it does not need anyone's participation," he said.
Modificato da - gz on 3/17/2003 17:31:51