By: blizzard on Sabato 20 Dicembre 2003 11:56
Ve lo ricordate il professore di geofisica? PARE CHE SI SIA SBAGLIATO!
Penso che anch'io tra poco, sotto mentite spoglie (finte cattedre universitarie, premi e riconoscimenti falsi) mi metterò a scrivere un libro sul crash del mercato prossimo venturo e come Mr. Sornette o gli scrittori di Nostradamus, venderò centinaia di migliaia di copie...altro che trading...bisogna però che m'inventi un logaritmo super esponenziale ipergeocentrico intergalattico di terzo grado, della prima serie di una seconda legge della gravità logaritmica che regola le funzioni magnetiche dell'influsso planetario della via lattea applicato alla forza interconnettiva dei buchi neri.
Questo è il risultato di chi vuole capire la finanza studiando i terremoti....
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT:
WE FIND FOR THE FIRST TIME A STRONG PROBABILITY THAT THE ANTIBUBBLE DOCUMENTED HERE MAY HAS ENDED. THUS, ALL THE PREDICTIONS GIVEN BELOW ARE CONDITIONED ON THE CONTINUATION OF THE ANTIBUBBLE. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM UNCONDITIONAL PREDICTIONS. AT THE END OF THIS UPDATE, WE PRESENT THE EVIDENCE FOR THE POSSIBLE END OF THE BUBBLE.
AGAIN, THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT PERFORMED IN REAL TIME AND WE WILL CONTINUE UPDATING EVERY MONTH TO STUDY IN DEPTH THIS TRANSITION, IF CONFIRMED, OR THE RESUMING OF THE ANTIBUBBLE.
We also defined two probabilities, P1 (probability to continue the antibubble) and P2 (probability to have switched to another regime), in the aforementioned paper and calculated their values for seven different future scenarios until Mid-February [*], as shown in Table 2 (PDF document). Although there are still two months to go, it is now very probable that the market is somewhere between scenario (ii) and (iii). If confirmed, all the above updated predictions will turn out to be wrong. We should be able to confirm or deny this definitively in Feb. 2004.
[*]
(i) a random walk taking the S&P 500 to the value 1200;
(ii) a random walk taking the S&P 500 to 1100;
(iii) a random walk taking the S&P 500 to 1000;
(iv) a random walk taking the S&P 500 to 900;
(v) a random walk taking the S&P 500 to 800;
(vi) a continuation of the antibubble with noise obtained by a GARCH process as described above;
(vii) a continuation of the antibubble with noise obtained by drawing at random the residuals over six previous months.