By: GZ on Giovedì 29 Gennaio 2004 10:52
Fleckenstein nota che il Ministro delle Finanze giapponese Sadakazu Tanigaki ha ammesso ieri in parlamento che il Giappone potrebbe cominciare a mettere una parte delle sue riserve in oro.
Non c'è bisogno di dire che se veramente lo facessero e
comprassero anche solo la quantità di oro che la francia
e la germania detengono il prezzo andrebbe a 800$
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All the Fed-engendered commotion overshadowed what to me was the really big news in the longer term, both for currencies, metals, and perhaps even fixed income -- a potentially tectonic statement made by Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki. To quote a Bloomberg story: "Japan needs to 'carefully' consider diversifying its official reserves to include more holdings of gold. 'That would be necessary for the purposes of diversifying assets,' Tanigaki said at the fiscal and finance committee of the lower house of parliament in Tokyo. He was responding to a question by Jin Matsubara of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, regarding why most of Japan's official reserves are in foreign currencies and U.S. Treasuries, rather than other assets, including gold. . . . 'There is debate among international monetary authorities about gold's role in foreign reserves,' Tanigaki said. 'Boosting holdings of gold would affect the gold market and so should be carefully considered.'"
This story made the rounds, as one might imagine, and folks were quick to do calculations about Japan's tiny sliver of reserves held in gold. If Japan were to do something along the lines of what Germany has and pro-rated it the size of their population, it would have to buy about 4,500 tons. This is of course wild conjecture. According to my sources in the metals market, the Japanese have not been doing anything yet. But if they do, a trickle will soon become the functional equivalent of the biblical flood that required Noah to build an ark, including not just the BOJ but also Japanese citizens, the Bank of China, and Chinese citizens.
Those of us who've long held Alan Greenspan's actions in disdain have continually scratched our heads as to why the Bank of Japan, the Bank of China, and others persist in lapping up dollars and mispriced Treasuries, rather than exchanging their surplus dollars for gold, which would not put pressure on the foreign exchange rate. Apparently, some brighter lights in Asia have begun to figure it out. Should this get going, the implications for precious metals would be wildly bullish. Folks would want to scoop up as much gold as they thought they could stomach, then close their eyes and not check on the price except for maybe once a month for a couple years, because that would be one powerful trend in place.