l'Asia consuma e spende ora

Con tutti i soldi del petrolio, potrebbe ben far qualcosa di più, il caro putin Russia: incendio in casa di riposo, 23 morti La direzione dell'ospizio statale avrebbe atteso mezz'ora prima di chiamare i pompieri MOSCA - È salito a 23 il numero delle vittime nell'incendio di una casa di riposo in Russia che è scoppiato domenica all'ora di pranzo a Tula, a circa 200 km a sud di Mosca. Si teme purtoppo che le vittime possano essere molte di più: infatti l'ospizio accoglieva circa 200 anziani. Il ministro russo per le Emergenze, Viktor Beltsov, ha accusato apertamente la direzione dell'ospizio statale: inspiegabilmente avrebbe atteso mezz'ora prima di chiamare i pompieri e l'evacuazione della struttura è stata eseguita molto lentamente. Molte persone potevano perciò essere salvate. Dopo il primo sopralluogo, gli ispettori hanno ordinato la chiusura della struttura a causa di violazioni dei sistemi di sicurezza e per la mancanza di ogni tipo di allarme. Si ritiene che il rogo sia stato scatenato da un corto circuito. Non è la prima volta che tragedie di questo tipo avventono in Russia in strutture pubbliche, dove i sistemi di sicurezza sono scarsi se non del tutto assenti. Lo scorso dicembre, per esempio, 45 donne sono morte nell'incendio di una clinica di disintossicazione da droghe perché le porte erano chiuse per evitare fughe. A marzo a Kuban altre 62 persone erano decedute nel rogo di un ospizio.

In Asia mancano 160 milioni di donne, prima o poi ci invadono per accoppiarsi ------------ Sexual Frustration Will Hurt Asia's Economies: William Pesek By William Pesek Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- ``The Geopolitics of Sexual Frustration.'' That's how Martin Walker, a senior fellow at the New School University of New York, refers to an underappreciated risk to Asia's economic outlook. French demographer Christophe Guilmoto calls it ``masculinization.'' Others put it more bluntly: ``The Penis Preference.'' No matter what one calls it, the desire for sons in China, India and other Asian economies is causing a dangerous gender gap. In China, for example, 120 boys were born for every 100 girls in 2005, according to a new United Nations report. This growing testosterone glut is something investors making long-term bets on Asia should be monitoring, and closely. ``Sex ratio imbalances only lead to far-reaching imbalances in society,'' Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, head of the UN Population Fund, said in Hyderabad, India, on Oct. 29. ``We must carry forward the message that every human being is born equal in dignity, worth and human rights.'' Tell that to the ever-growing numbers of families from Beijing to New Delhi and from Hanoi to Kathmandu actively avoiding the birth of daughters. It's a cultural phenomenon governments have yet to address sufficiently and one that could have unexpected economic side effects. The preference for boys often boils down to economics. Sons tend to support parents in their old age, while daughters are often seen as a liability. Families sometimes need to pay a dowry when daughters marry. In some cultures, sons perform last rites when parents die and continue the family name. Reverse Darwinism It's a bit of Darwinism in reverse. Families are conducting a kind of unnatural selection process to get ahead economically. Yet hundreds of millions of households engaging in such an experiment may backfire on entire economies. Guilmoto, who wrote the UN report, says men will outnumber women by 23 million in India and by 26 million in China by 2030. Some estimates are even higher. In the 1990s, economist Amartya Sen drew attention to the phenomenon of ``missing women.'' Improved census data now allow us to see how much the trend is growing and could undermine Asian growth, productivity and lead to bigger budget deficits. It might even lead to an increase in violence. This latter risk was detailed in the 2004 book ``Bare Branches: Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population.'' In it, Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer warned that Asia's shortage of women is giving rise to an entire generation of young men with no prospects of finding a mate. They argue that biology, sociology and history suggest the imbalance will lead to crime and social disorder. Gender Gap Farfetched, perhaps, yet the UN warns that the focus on sons in countries such as China, India, Nepal and Vietnam may fuel sexual violence and trafficking in women. The UN notes that if Asia's overall sex ratio were the same as the rest of the globe, in 2005 the region would have had 163 million more females. Here, China and India should be the largest concern for investors. Multinational companies are relying on increased consumer demand in the two most-populous nations. So are investors, who are betting on strong economic growth, rising productivity and an ample supply of increasingly skilled labor. ``To address the socio-economic basis for the preference for boys, both societies need to reduce the dependence of parents on their male children, while improving the economic standing of daughters,'' says Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. ``This will require improvements in social security and policies to improve education and female participation in the workforce.'' Trafficking One consequence of Chinese becoming richer may be more sex selection, not less. Improving ultrasound and amniocentesis technology is making it easier for parents to abort girls, and reports of female infanticide are becoming routine. The same is true of India; the wealthier the region, the wider the gender divide is likely to be. What also concerns the UN is what all those single men will do with their desire for female companionship. Sadly, the real winner could be the human-trafficking business amid increased demand for prostitution and the outright purchase of mates. China's government is beginning to address the issue. Earlier this year, the Communist Party vowed to take ``tough measures'' to control the imbalance. Yet China needs to become more aggressive in tackling a problem that's partly at the root of President Hu Jintao's push for a ``scientific outlook on development.'' Sexual Frustration Hu wants to spread the benefits of China's 11.5 percent growth. At the moment, the lack of safety nets -- public help with education, health care and pensions -- means that sons are the safety net. Having a boy is your retirement plan and until that changes, Chinese may welcome fewer and fewer daughters. Among the biggest obstacles is the not-in-my-backyard dynamic that demographers confront in Asia. It's recognition by parents that it's important to have more girls -- just as long as someone else has them. Breaking this NIMBY mindset will require tremendous political will and spending in the years ahead. In Asia's case, worsening sexual frustration may frustrate economic growth

la moltiplicazione dei pani e dei pesci tale quale

la borsa indiana, ^Sensex index, da indietro un -9% stanotte#http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9rLcbyr6xTo&refer=home^ ma recupera un 5% nel finale la cosa impressionante della storia è che metà degli acquisti sul Sensex sono fatti tramite derivati, quindi con leva il Sensex due anni fa era a 6.000 punti e oggi a 19.000 punti

Tra poche ora inizia il congresso del partito comunista cinese che deciderà la nuova nomenklatura, il terzo Congresso del PCC da quando la Cina è diventata capitalista le ultime due volte la borsa cinese è scesa dell'11% e 14%, il motivo sembra che aspettano sempre i nuovi capi per prendere le decisioni, quindi qualunque cosa di importante volessero cambiare in economia nel 2007 hanno aspettato fino ad oggi ------------ Thus, the overall loss from head to toe, ^from the start of the NPC until the next big market trough#http://seekingalpha.com/article/49739-reduce-your-chinese-holdings-before-the-national-party-congress-begins^, has been the sum of how the market (mis-)behaved during the NPC and thereafter: 1997: -11% 2002: -14%

su minyanville hanno trovato questa società indiana che estrae rame, zinco, alluminio ed è quotata ora a NY Sterlite Industries (SLT). -------- ...the little-known copper, zinc and aluminum powerhouse Sterlite Industries (SLT). The company's corporate structure is a little arcane, but basically it is a separately traded unit of the United Kingdom-based mining conglomerate Vedanta, which also has major operations in Australia and Zambia. Sterlite is primarily known in India as a leading copper refiner and smelter, but after a recent deal it has also absorbed 91% of the country's leading zinc miner and refiner, Hindustan Zinc. You may know of zinc as primarily a dietary supplement or sunblock, but a much heavier version of the resource now accounts for a third of Sterlite's revenue and 70% of its earnings. The zinc that Sterlite produces is primarily used to coat steel for protection against corrosion, a process called galvanization. Galvanized steel is used in structures that range from automobile bodies to skyscrapers, all of which are in great demand now in the region as the Chinese and Indian economies grow at a rapid pace. On the commodities futures market, zinc prices have more than tripled over the last three years while inventories have dwindled, though they’ve stalled a bit lately. Worldwide, zinc consumption grew 5% last year, and it is set to grow another 4.5% in 2007 and 2008. With marginal higher-cost mines being restarted, it will be difficult for supply to catch up with the shortages of skilled labor and equipment plaguing the entire mining industry. So, as demand grows, zinc prices are going to continue to rise, which is great news for producers like Sterlite. The company's Hindustan Zinc unit operates a mine and three smelters in northwestern India and is currently exploring a 6,000 square mile area, which could boost its reserves by as much as 25%. Total zinc capacity currently stands at approximately 400,000 tons annually, but the company has a number of expansion projects underway that will help boost production. Goldman Sachs analysts expect Hindustan's zinc volume to grow 21% next year, while Macquarie analysts see volume up as much as 50% by 2009. Macquarie also sees substantial increase in the company’s copper and aluminum smelting capacity and production volume as well. Since its facilities are very efficient, considered among the top 10% in the world in terms of cost effectiveness, the company should have little problem meeting expectations. Last month, Sterlite sold $2 bln worth of shares in the United States to finance its buyout of the Indian government's stake in Hindustan Zinc. That opened the door for me to buy into this classic Asian growth story. If you cock your head a bit and squint your eyes, you can envision how it could turn out to be a mini version of India-born steel titan Arcelor Mittal (MT), which has done very well for my portfolios in the past year, rising 100%. Other comparable global base metals plays include BHP Billiton (BHP), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Teck Cominco (TCK) and Century Aluminum (CENX). I will have more to say about Sterlite in the future, including details about its large copper business. For now, the stock continues to look like a solid play on global metal demand for my 2008 target of $22. Set stop at around $16.25 in case of trouble.

il rame una volta costava (a NY ad es.) meno di 1.00 anzi in media 80 centesimi e ora costa tra 2.50 e 4.00 dollari alla libbra, durante il boom dell'asia degli anni '90 al massimo era arrivato a 1.25$ Non è possibile che rimanga per anni ora un 300% più alto della quotazione media storica di questo secolo senza che ci sia inflazione cioè è possibile che la famosa Cina e India e Brasile non si fermino più e crescano sempre senza intoppi (non ci credo ma non è impossibile) è possibile che le materie prime triplichino per un periodo quello che non è possibile è che petrolio, gas, rame, nickel, zinco, soya, frumento, mais salgano del 300% e rimangano a questi livelli per 3-4 anni senza creare una catena di effetti inflazionistici

Zibordi i suoi post di ieri ed oggi sono un vero godimento x l'intelletto

Dati freschi di oggi su Bloomberg: la Cina con i suoi 1.3 miliardi di cinesi al momento conta per solo il 6% di tutto il commercio estero in Asia Come noto le economie asiatiche sono trainate dall'export. Ma il 70% del commercio all'interno dell'Asia è per beni intermedi, semilavorati e componenti e solo per il 30% per beni finali. Alla fine ^il 61% dell'export dell'Asia finisce in Europa e America#http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aICNcnU6pG4w&refer=bondheads^ (nonostante in Asia ci sia il Giappone!) Cioè 'sti asiatici esportano ora anche molto tra loro ma il grosso della domanda finale, dei consumi che tirano il loro export è ancora quello occidentale Morale: se in america e poi in europa si rallenta vanno sotto anche loro, che oggi l'asia sia in grado di compensare un calo di consumi in America è un mito nato solo perchè le borse salgono ------------------ ...Take China, the largest driver of regional exports in Asia. For all the excitement about China's 11 percent growth and 1.3 billion-person market, its final demand -- essentially, goods purchased in China -- accounts for only 6.4 percent of total Asian trade. That's only half the contribution of Japan. When you dissect Asia's trade data, more than the 70 percent of trade within the region consists of so-called intermediate goods that are used in production, according to Ali. Of this, half is created by demand outside Asia. And roughly 61.3 percent of total Asian exports are eventually consumed in the U.S., Europe and Japan. If U.S. Sneezes ``It's still the case that if G-3 economies, particularly the U.S., sneeze, Asia catches a cold, too,'' Ali says. ``Weak demand in the U.S. will hit the current drivers of Asian growth, which then will hurt the rest of Asia.''

a me interesserebbe molto di più capire dove allevano i tori!! certamente sono diventato un grande fan delle corride ormai!

Ma dove li allevano tutti questi orsi ? ---------------------- SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley former star economist Andy Xie warned of an imminent stock market crash in China -- but still hopes to raise money to invest in the country. Xie, who attracted a wide following while he was at Morgan Stanley because of his often contrarian views on China's economy and stock markets, also warned that the global boom in equities would be over by 2008 and that this would coincide with a worldwide recession. The recession would start from the United States and spiral down into Asia where exporters would be hit, Xie, 46, told Reuters in a telephone interview. "I think it's going to be bust very soon," Xie said, adding that a combination of excess liquidity, rising inflation and rich valuations would result in a global crash soon. ^"People will be surprised. When the end comes, it's going to be pretty bad,"#http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSSIN15117620070430^ Xie added.

c'è ora la mega fiera in Cina e ^questo articolo del NY Times#http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/18/business/worldbusiness/18yuan.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin^ racconta cosa vendono e cosa pensano. La cosa incredibile è che parlano solo del tasso di cambio Nell'ultimo anno il cambio Yuan/dollaro è risalito di un 4-5% mentre quello Yuan/Euro è sceso di un -10% e le loro esportazioni si sono ora rivolte verso l'Europa. I cinesi hanno un vantaggio di costo del lavoro enorme no ? E allora perchè guardano ad ogni oscillazione del cambio come i poveri eportatori italiani degli anni '70 ? Perchè è un economia dove l'export è il 35-40% del PIL e dove gli investimenti fissi un altro 30% per cui ha una "leva" enorme, deve crescere costantemente all'11% l'anno, non può rallentare nemmeno di un 1% ora e l'unico modo di strappare quote di mercato a tutti è manipolare i tassi di interesse all'interno tenendoli bassissimi e il cambio all'estero svalutandolo (e ovviamente mentire in modo spudorato sull'inflazione e i crediti incagliati) --------------- Indeed, the rise in the euro’s value propelled China’s exports to European Union countries past its exports to the United States for the first time in February. Currency rates have certainly influenced the finances of the Hang- zhou Jilin Machinery Company, which makes screwdrivers and other tools. Its American sales have remained basically flat, while those to Africa, Europe, the Middle East and especially Australia are on the rise. Zhao Wei, the company’s sales manager, assigns much of the blame to the dollar’s lower value against the Chinese yuan. Officials in Beijing raised the value of their currency by 2.1 percent against the dollar in July 2005, and have let it drift up 5 percent more since then. “It’s a big problem,” Ms. Zhao said. To be sure, China’s exports to the United States are huge and growing, as is the trade imbalance, which is significantly larger than the European Union’s deficit with China. That is the main reason trade is a focus of attention for the newly empowered Democrats in Congress, making it likely that trade frictions between the two countries will persist and possibly worsen in the months ahead. China surpassed Canada in the first two months of this year as the largest exporter to the United States. According to statistics released by the World Trade Organization last Thursday, China also overtook the United States in the second half of 2006 to become the world’s second-largest exporter of goods over all, after Germany. China is still nearly 25 times as dependent on exports to the United States as a percentage of its total economic output as the United States is on exports to China. Given that the Chinese economy is less than a quarter the size of the American economy, it is all the more striking that Chinese exports to the United States are worth more than six times American exports to China. The American exports accounted for roughly four-tenths of 1 percent of economic output in the first two months of this year, while ^Chinese exports to the United States equaled nearly 10 percent of China’s entire output...#http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/18/business/worldbusiness/18yuan.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin^ ...

e in questi due anni invece si è dovuto far partire india e cina, è così? e quando tireranno le reti?

Nella seconda meta' degli anni '90 andavano finanziate le infrastrutture della rivoluzione tecnologica ed internet. Per questo le borse furono fatte correre (*). Intorno al 2000 ci si accorse che cosi' poteva bastare. In fondo erano emerse aziende leader, come Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, AMD, Yahoo, eBAy... capaci di reggersi con i propri piedi. Un' ulteriore corsa avrebbe solo fatto prosperare le mele marce. Cosi' furono tirate le reti dal buon vecchio green... Ooooooo isssssa! ;-) (*) Fu con il sangue di noi, eroici piccoli risparmiatori che fu finanziata la rivoluzione tecnologica ed internet; dovremmo andarne fieri.

Caspita, non ci avevo mai fatto caso, bel grafico. In relazione ai titoli tecnologici in generale, ho una mia idea: la rivoluzione tech-internet della metà anni '90 effettivamente ha portato un cambiamento radicale della nostra vita e delle nostre abitudini, qualcuno potrà pensare in peggio, ma sempre cambiamento è stato. Ad oggi mi sembra che questa spinta sia esaurita ed il settore, al di là che produrre un Iphone piuttosto che un software Vista dei quali sinceramente non sentiamo la necessità impellente, mi sembra un pò a corto di idee. Voglio dire...ok mi piace stare in treno con un Ipod, ma perchè si possa rivedere il Nasdaq dei vecchi tempi ci vuol ben altro, qualcosa che ti incida sensibilmente sulla vita quotidiana e che magari te la migliori. Non vedo ad oggi niente di tutto questo!