By: GZ on Giovedì 15 Febbraio 2007 11:53
E' appena uscita l'Inghilterra con il maggiore calo dei consumi dal gennaio 2003, esattamente come predico qui da settimane
E' una situazione simile al marzo 2003, solo che invece della "bolla di internet e del nasdaq" ha la "bolla del debito del consumatore"
Se le borse non stessero salendo il fatto che gli inglesi hanno accumulato 1.400 miliardi di debiti come consumatori e i tassi sono saliti al 5.25% farebbe pensare a una recessione.
Siccome stanno salendo gli analisti hanno paura a dirlo perchè fanno una pessima figura a essere pessimisti con le azioni che salgono. Ma stanno salendo perchè i petrodollari e la ricchezza accumulata nel top 5% della popolazione va tutta in investimenti finanziari. Ciò non toglie che se il consumatore inglese oggi esce con un -1.8% e ieri quello americano con un +0.0% dei suoi consumi vai in recessione
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U.K. January Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall the Most Since 2003
By Brian Swint
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell in January by the most in four years, led by clothing and electrical goods including flat-screen televisions.
Sales declined 1.8 percent, the biggest drop since January 2003, from December, when they rose 1.1 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists expected a gain of 0.2 percent, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
The report suggests post-Christmas discounts weren't enough to lure shoppers impoverished by higher borrowing costs and energy bills. That squeeze may intensify if the Bank of England delivers a fourth increase in interest rates since August, as investors currently expect.
``With interest rates rising, retailers will have a harder time in 2007,'' said David Page, an economist at Investec Securities in London. ``Each quarter-point hike is equivalent to around 50 pounds ($98) off an average person's monthly income, and that will come out of spending more than anything else.''
Lower monthly sales were led by a 4.4 percent drop in clothing and footwear and a 4.2 percent decline at household goods and electronics retailers, the statistics office said. Sales of sporting goods and books also fell. The survey covers the period from Dec. 31 to Jan. 27.
Monsoon Plc, the owner of the Monsoon and Accessorize fashion chains, said Jan. 25 that sales at stores open at least a year declined 8 percent in December and January.
Record Debt
Higher borrowing costs may lead consumers to rein in spending as they pay back a record 1.3 trillion pounds of debt. Personal insolvencies reached a record 107,288 in 2006, the Department of Trade and Industry said Feb. 2. The Bank of England unexpectedly raised its key rate to 5.25 percent on Jan. 11.
Stores are discounting to attract shoppers. The retail price deflator, a measure of retail inflation, dropped 0.4 percent in January from a year earlier, the first decline since August.
Debenhams Plc, Britain's biggest department-store company after John Lewis Partnership Plc, cut prices by more than 70 percent on some goods a day after Christmas.
Overall consumer prices fell 0.8 percent on the month, the most in four years, the government said Feb. 12.