By: GZ on Martedì 24 Luglio 2007 16:15
intervistano sabato il miglior gestore del settore beni di consumo in America
tra le altre cose spiega che per quello che osserva lui guardando ad una le società del suo settore l'America sarebbe in recessione perchè la domanda è debolissima ovunque, ma a differenza di anni fa le aziende ora non accumulamo mai scorte, ordinano tutto all'ultimo minuto e quindi non hanno mai eccessi di magazzino o cancellazioni di ordini grosse
Questo fa sì che non appaiano nelle statistiche del PIL cali di produzione ed ordini tipici di una recessione per ora
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Interview With Larry Haverty, Portfolio manager,
Gabelli Global Multimedia Trust
By SANDRA WARD
WITH HIS FUND UP MORE THAN 50% in the past year, Larry Haverty was a natural candidate for an encore interview. Haverty's expertise, as portfolio manager of Gabelli Multimedia Trust (ticker: XGGTX), is in media and consumer-related stocks. His special gift is in seeing opportunities -- what he calls "the elephants in the room" -- seemingly invisible to everyone else. As for his long record of brilliant stock-picking, he knows few rivals.
Barron's: This is the market that just won't quit. Or is it?
Haverty: It is like a mystery play. In Act I of the play, it is very clear the U.S. consumer is in what I would call a 21st-century recession, and that's a recession without the negative economic statistics that you would normally get in a '60s or '70s style recession.
How then do you know there is a recession?
We have weak end demand virtually everywhere -- in restaurants, autos, durables and at the low end of the consumer area, with pricing pressure on everything from oil to milk. We are not getting a classic recession, probably due to the fact that inventory management has been so much better than it was 30 years ago, largely due to computers. There aren't the massive cancellations of orders that existed in the classic recessions in the '60s and '70s. I can't tell you the last time I have seen a retailer with seriously excessive inventory. The message from this part of the play is that while the consumer is weak, it has basically put the Fed on hold for the last year and for the foreseeable future, because if the Fed raises interest rates it is going to make the sectors that are weak much weaker, and that is not going to accomplish anything.