GOL! (linee aeree brasiliane) - gz
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By: GZ on Domenica 16 Gennaio 2005 13:42
Quando le borse internazionali perdono un poco come negli ultimi dieci giorni è un occasione per vedere se i titoli di società che vanno benissimo e che però sono stata spinte un po' troppo finalmente scendano.
Ad esempio la migliore società di linee aree del mondo: la brasiliana Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (GOL), su cui c'è una storia anche su Bloomberg italiano di sabato. E' stata quotata in giugno ed è salita del +50% in real e del +70% in dollari (è quotata anche a NY) perchè il real è una delle valute che ha guadagnato di più sul dollaro.
E' una società bellissima, creata sull'esempio della famosa Southwest Airlines (LUV) che in America è l'unica profittevole e che ha schiacciato tutte le rivali con il suo modello "low cost" (e in Europa sull'esempio di Ryanair che pure va bene in un industria in cui tutti hanno guai).
In Brasile però tutte le linee aeree vanno bene perchè la domanda sta crescendo molto in tutto il continente e l'apprezzamento della valuta verso il dollaro ha compensato il rincaro del greggio. GOL capitalizza ora 2.7 miliardi di $, più delle AMR Corp (AMR), JetBlue Airways (JBLU) o EasyJet PLC (EZJ.LN) per cui non è più a buon mercato. Ma appunto si spera che ci sia ora un poco di nervosismo degli investitori che li induca a venderla creando un prezzo migliore
E poi ci sono altre linee aeree brasiliane come quelle citate qui in questo pezzo
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Brazil's Gol Airline To Keep Up Pricing Pressure In 2005
By Matthew Cowley
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's largest low-cost airline, Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (GOL), will keep up pricing pressure on its rivals in 2005, maintaining a sharp competitive edge in the domestic airline market at a time when the country's other carriers are facing significant challenges.
Gol says it aims to cut ticket prices by about 10% in 2005 and expects this to help boost its 24% share in the domestic airline market as it gains ground on its full-service competitors. TAM Linhas Aereas SA (TANC4.BR) has a 39% market share and Viacao Aerea Rio Grandense SA (VAGV4.BR), or Varig, has 33%. The low-cost airline claims its prices are already about 20% cheaper than its competitors, achieved through savings in labor, services and electronic ticketing. The company - which was founded in 2001 and bases its business model on Southwest Airlines (LUV) of the U.S. - plans to squeeze more efficiency out of its operations, and build on its growing economies of scale, to shave prices further.
This strategy has brought fresh competition to a market characterized by older airlines that have been battered by the harsh economic winds blowing across the region in recent decades.
TAM has reacted to Gol's growing challenge by cutting the price of some tickets and signing partnerships with smaller regional airlines, but is shackled by its code-sharing partnership with debt-laden Varig. That deal was cobbled together by the government in 2003 as the precursor to a full merger, which was roundly rejected by Varig's controlling shareholder, the Rubem Berta Foundation.
The partnership with TAM remains in limbo as Varig continues to be distracted by the battle to restructure its estimated 6 billion Brazilian reals ($1=BRL2.65) of debts. The government was ready to let the airline fall into liquidation before the Brazilian Appeals Court, or STJ, ruled in December that the airline should receive some BRL2.3 billion of damages from the government for price freezes imposed in the 1980s and 1990s.
The decision has given Varig a new lease on life, with Brazil's vice president and defense minister, Jose Alencar, now pushing for the airline to continue talks with creditors aimed at turning debts into shares - albeit in the face of opposition from those within the government who still want the airline liquidated.
TAM could also benefit from the court ruling, as it is claiming some BRL170 million of damages in a similar case.
But the decision is likely to be too late for Viacao Aerea de Sao Paulo SA, or VASP, which claims some BRL2 billion from the government but is struggling under a mountain of debts and has seen its market share plunge from nearly 14% in April to under 1.4% in November, with many expecting its imminent demise.
Industry players see the domestic airline market repeating last year's 10-12% passenger growth in 2005, with analysts expecting the economy to grow 3.5% after more than 5% growth in 2004. Not only will existing passengers fly more often, but lower prices mean the overall customer base will also grow, according to Gol's chief executive, Constantino de Oliveira.
However, the drive to push prices lower is blocked by the government-imposed limits designed to ensure that the airline industry does not enter into a suicidal price war. The limits also prevent airlines from opening up new routes until there is clear indication of strong demand.
"On one hand, it takes away some of our commercial flexibility, but on the other hand, it guarantees a certain stability," Oliveira said in a recent interview. "There is competition but with limitations. It is not the environment we prefer working in."
Brazil's airlines will also be at the mercy of international oil prices, as Brazil remains a net importer of oil. Most aviation fuel in Brazil is supplied by the government-run oil company, Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, which adjusts prices every 15 days in line with crude oil variations. Aviation fuel prices rose by about 40% in 2004 after oil spiked above $55 per barrel.
Fuel typically accounts for between 25-30% of airline operating costs in Brazil. However, higher fuel prices may be offset by a stronger local currency, as a significant proportion of airline's costs, such as aircraft leasing payments, are linked to the U.S. dollar. Brazil's currency, the real, ended 2004 at a two-and-a-half-year high of BRL2.66 per dollar, with economists predicting a slight weakening to around BRL3 per dollar in 2005. Gol's shares have been a star performer since their stock market debut in Sao Paulo and New York in June. The firm's preferred shares in Sao Paulo are up 50%
from the BRL26.80 initial public offering price while the American Depositary Receipts are up 70% from the $17 June starting price.
Gol's market capitalization has soared to about $2.7 billion, more than U.S. airlines AMR Corp (AMR), which owns American Airlines, JetBlue Airways (JBLU), or Europe's EasyJet PLC (EZJ.LN).
Shares in TAM and Varig, although notoriously illiquid, have also performed well in recent weeks, on rising optimism that both will benefit from restructuring of the industry.
Meanwhile, another company increasingly looking to build a regional flight network is Brazil's OceanAir, owned by Brazilian businessman German Efromovich.
The firm, which has a small airline serving mainly corporate customers in Brazil's oil industry, recently bought control of Colombia's national carrier, Aerovias Nacionales de Colombia SA (ANC.YY), or Avianca, and plans to launch an airline called Wayra in Peru, in March 2005, together with local investors
