By: banshee on Martedì 28 Gennaio 2003 12:02
Relativamente alla sottoperformance delle azioni del settore rispetto al metallo, qui c'è un'altra buona spiegazione possibile, fornita da Jim Sinclair.
____________________________________________
Are you totally perplexed by the action of gold, which is robust, and the action of the shares that is debilitated? Have you noticed that when gold strengthens, the shares hit a stone wall? Yes, I know you have, but have you seen the timing of that strange and contradictory occurrence? The answer to what is going on is shouting at you if you have the ability to see the charts in real time on a one-minute bar overlaid as shares over gold. You will see that as gold is being purchased, the shares are being shorted.
What has occurred is that major ratio traders (those who develop mathematical relationships determined by back testing to balance potential loss and gain on either leg then adjusted to their bullish or bearish desires) and hedge funds are the source of the gold share short, being long gold and short the shares. In truth, I cannot blame them where the gold producer hedgers are concerned, but it seems they may have gone bonkers with this spread and simply shorted all listed gold producing companies from 100,000 ounces per annum and up. It also looks to me as if there might be a little hanky-panky going on since the short of certain shares seems to exceed that which is reasonably available to borrow. A requirement of a short sale is delivery of shares. These shares are obtained by borrowing. Every major brokerage concerned has a loan clerk for this purpose. Only shares on margin are automatically available for lending. Fully paid shares require the permission of the lender to qualify as available to the short.
I have given you one lesson on felony 101: explaining how probabilities support Enron as being the yet-to-be-discovered largest money laundry to have ever existed. I will also give you a felony lesson on how to short sell a listed stock without an up tick: back the sale through Canada or elsewhere over the counter where delivery laws are different. This is a key reason why some stocks face inexplicable bear raids on NASDAQ. Now please do not be tempted to employ these illicit strategies. They are only explained so you will understand market phenomena.
So, in my opinion, the short of gold stocks culprit now is identified as Hedge funds and Hedge Operators long gold and short the shares. The interesting point is that these funds plan to sell gold between $372 and $386 into the Iraq invasion with a plan to cover the short gold stock on a gold bullion price pull back after the invasion.
The Hedge Fund Errors
The Hedgers & Hedge Funds are going to exit the futures on gold at the wrong price, thereby leaving themselves increasingly exposed to the debits developing on their gold shares position.
The Hedgers & Hedge Funds have shorted the gold shares too hard in light of the relatively small floating share supply. In some cases, as I see it, the entire float on certain issues may well be shorted.
The Hedgers & Hedge Funds are not familiar with the tenacious nature of the gold share investor vs. the gold share trader and therefore will not get the volume of selling they are hoping for.
Conclusion:
As gold approaches the $381 to $386 price level, shares will start to firm and gold’s momentum will slow slightly. This will be due to the operations of the Hedgers and Hedge Funds getting ready to rake in their expected profits. However, as gold trades into the middle $390s you will see the gold shares start to move ahead of gold, momentum-wise, as some of the faster and smarter hedgers will see an abyss of losses opening in front of them. As gold passes $400, which will be to almost everyone’s surprise, the Hedgers will panic and gold shares will go ballistic.
These gold share shorts, in certain instances, are simply too large and therefore cannot be covered under any circumstance that I can envision. Like the mountain of derivatives, the hedgers have gone wild in this shorting of the smallest capitalization that can be found in any industry publicly traded, the gold mining industry.
What “fundamental factor” have the Hedgers and Hedge funds forgotten
that will totally bury them in their gold share shorts
well after the Iraq invasion is history?
The mistake made by these greedy Hedgers and Hedge Funds is the definition of the USA going it alone. What that means is that no one will share the cost of the operation with the US, but more importantly, share in the cost of reconstruction of Iraq and ita modernization. I gave you a must read as the current issue of “Foreign Affairs.” Basically a mouthpiece of the sitting administration, this journal tends to reflect Washington foreign policy trends relatively well. Reading it that way, and not critically, it can be a useful tool in understanding the impact of international politics on markets. I have already told you that since Lawrence of Arabia, the mistake made by the West concerning Middle East matters have been the same. We fight battles and then, as recently as the Iraq invasion, leave the results in the hands of anything from despots, international criminals to our sworn enemies. As a result, the Mideast situation for their citizens never changes, but in our terms simply gets worse.
This invasion will be followed by a rebuilding of Iraq as Bush will not stop the fight unless Hussein and bin Laden are history, or more likely, occupying the same hut somewhere in Upper Mongolia.
The cost of this invasion, assuming a short war and the rebuild, is well over “one trillion dollars.” That will be paid for by expansion of the monetary aggregates. As a result of “going it alone,” the USA, who will bear at least 90% of this cost, will gain from the business demand, but loose on the impact of all this on the US Dollar. The US Dollar is building multiple head and shoulders, as did Enron and General Electric, with a dollar downside maximum potential well under the low I have suggested to you at 72 on the USDX. This insures that gold will find its way back in the system to prevent the multiple head and shoulder potential for the US dollar from becoming real market prices.
In the final analysis, the War against Iraq will help business activity and hurt the dollar. Gold will rise to a level not expected by the Hedgers and Hedge Funds react and return to the second leg of the long-term bull market from a reaction low so high as to nail the Hedger and Hedge Funds. That low in the reaction to come could even be higher than gold is today.