il Mistero del Trader Cinese a Londra Scomparso - gz
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By: GZ on Mercoledì 16 Novembre 2005 21:19
Che il balzo in su dell'oro e argento oggi sia in "simpatia" con i record toccati nei giorni scorsi dal rame in seguito al Mistero del Trader Cinese a Londra Scomparso ?
Dopo aver messo in piedi una mostruosa posizione al ribasso (vendita allo scoperto) sul ^rame#^ al London Metals Exchange il capo dei trader cinesi a Londra è sparito da alcune settimane
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Word of Big Short Position
Has Metals Dealers Asking
If State Can Deliver on Time
By ANDREW HOTTER
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
November 14, 2005; Page C8
LONDON – A Chinese government copper trader, who is said to have built a big short position on the London Metal Exchange, has inexplicably ended contact with other dealers in both London and in China, people who have worked with the trader said.
Liu Qibing, who worked for China's State Reserve Bureau, took short copper positions that some London dealers said amounted to between 100,000 and 200,000 tons. The traders said the SRB would find it difficult to deliver the amounts of copper traded by what they said was a deadline of Dec. 21.
Mr. Liu, who couldn't be reached at his office at the SRB in Beijing, hasn't been at work for weeks, colleagues said. Traders on the London Metal Exchange who have dealt with Mr. Liu told Dow Jones Newswires they haven't heard from him for "many weeks." Some people familiar with Mr. Liu said he was removed from his job weeks ago.
The mystery surrounding Mr. Liu's whereabouts is provoking widespread speculation among metals traders in London, the U.S., and China about the size of the short position and its potential cost to the Chinese government. The speculation is that the SRB will have to scramble to meet the LME's requirement that the physical metal be delivered to approved LME warehouses. Some people who watch the copper market say they have seen more Chinese deliveries to Asian warehouses in recent weeks.
Compounding the confusion surrounding Mr. Liu, the SRB denies it has an employee with that name. Though London metal traders have Mr. Liu's business card, Wang Huimin, director of the SRB's Materials Management Center, denied knowledge of such a trader or of a London short copper position. "I've never heard of this person," he said. "Neither have I ever heard anything about the SRB selling short in London. I'm not clear if he is our staff. The SRB has no traders."
Chinese demand has helped lift copper prices for almost two years. The London Metal Exchange, which accounts for 90% of the world's global metals-futures trade, plays a major role in setting copper prices.
Mr. Wang said the SRB trades copper primarily on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, mostly through Cofco Futures Co. He said copper reserves are ample and China always is ready to cool domestic prices.
LME traders said they think the SRB is trying to give the impression it has no shortage and isn't worried about meeting delivery obligations. If its actions cause the price to drop, it would be able to reduce its losses, LME traders said.
Most LME players say long positions are widely held, primarily by fund managers. Chinese analysts said they think the SRB may be scrambling to buy copper in a tight market for delivery.
If Mr. Liu's short position is between 100,000 and 200,000 tons, it would be huge by LME standards. Copper stocks on the LME were only 65,350 tons on Friday, a level generally considered low.
Traders in London, Beijing, New York and Shanghai said Mr. Liu went short by 100,000 to 200,000 tons, mostly against the December date, betting the price was ready to fall. But as copper prices continued to rise toward $4,000 a ton, potential losses grew and Mr. Liu was removed from his job, said people familiar with the market.
Like all companies, the SRB likely would have used several brokers to handle its orders, a strategy that makes it difficult to independently assess the extent of its short positions or potential losses. If the SRB fails to meet its obligations under LME rules, its counterparties could face a financial loss.
LME spokeswoman Anna Campopiano said the exchange "doesn't comment on market rumor and speculation." Dow Jones Newswires interviewed about a dozen people around the world familiar with China's short copper position.
Traders in London and New York say SRB losses could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Such a loss would be the largest on the LME since Sumitomo lost an estimated $2.6 billion in 1996.
Even if the SRB has the copper, a big short position on the LME could be a problem. The reason is the LME requires delivery to go only to specific warehouses around the world, none of which are in China.
The SRB traditionally builds a strategic reserve of copper, although its size is a state secret. Estimates range from 100,000 to 500,000 tons, but many believe the strategic reserve is around 200,000 to 250,000 tons.
If Mr. Liu took short positions requiring delivery of as much as 200,000 tons, much of the estimated reserve would be depleted. People in China who follow the market said some of the SRB reserve dates to the early 1990s, raising questions about whether its quality would be acceptable to the LME.