Cosa aspettarsi dalla FED ? - Moderatore
By: Moderatore on Mercoledì 18 Giugno 2014 14:47
Cosa aspettarsi dalla FED ? - Goldman, BofA, MS, CS, DB, & tutti gli altri
18 Jun 2014 07:03 EDT
...economists at Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and other major banks.
GS: We expect rates on hold (at 0.25%) and a further $10bn tapering in the pace of asset purchases (to $35bn per month, with a reduction equally split between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities), in line with consensus. The economic data have, on balance, been encouraging since the April FOMC meeting, inflation has firmed a bit, and financial conditions have eased to their most accommodative level since early 2008. The committee is likely to make some upgrades to its description of the economic outlook in the post-meeting statement and its economic projections. Although the committee will need to reduce its 2014 real GDP growth forecast to take into account the Q1 disappointment, we would expect the committee to reduce its unemployment rate forecast and lift its inflation forecast slightly. These upgrades would, by themselves, suggest that the funds rate projections (or “dots”) might drift up and that the press conference might accordingly tilt towards the hawkish end. Three considerations, however, would point to a more neutral message: (1) the change in the FOMC’s composition, on balance, probably entails a dovish shift; (2) the committee’s projections of the longer-term funds rate might come down a bit; and (3) at the margin Chair Yellen might have become more comfortable in steering the monetary policy message in the direction of her own views at the post-meeting press conference. Taken together, we therefore expect a broadly neutral message....Although we are structural Dollar bulls, for reasons we spelled out recently, this leaves us tactically cautious going into tomorrow's FOMC.
BofA: At its June policy meeting this week, the Fed is likely to taper by another $10 bn (bringing the purchase pace down to $35 bn per month: $15 bn in agency MBS and $20 in Treasuries) and to maintain its current forward guidance language. The focus will instead be on the updated economic and policy forecasts and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference. New voters add some extra uncertainty to this meeting, but we expect the central message of a patient policy stance and a gradual tightening cycle to be unchanged. As part of her press conference Wednesday afternoon, expect Chair Yellen to once again downplay the dot plot as not a policy tool. We agree that markets are best served by focusing on the consensus FOMC statement and Yellen’s prepared remarks. These should continue to indicate a gradual recovery supported by a continued accommodative stance by the Fed. As in March, the risk is that an off-the-cuff remark or small shift in the dot plot is misread by the markets. Today’s more transparent FOMC harbors no secret hawkish messages.
Morgan Stanley: We think the balance of risks is skewed toward a less dovish FOMC tomorrow. With the market still pricing in a slower pace of tightening than the March SEP forecast, and a chance that this SEP forecast is moved to show even higher rates for 2015 and 2016 (along with improved inflation and unemployment forecasts), we would look for front-end US yields to move higher, boosting USD. We like playing USD longs against short low-yielding currencies where the central bank could sound more dovish, including SEK, EUR, and CHF. The main risk to our view would be that Chair Yellen downplays the FOMC forecasts and focuses on downside growth risks and the lack of convincing wage growth in her press conference.
Credit Suisse: n the light of Carney’s hawkish surprise, markets have grown concerned that today’s FOMC meeting could move in the same direction. We see reason to believe that these fears might be substantiated. Beyond another $10bn taper, our economists think the FOMC statement could look marginally more hawkish, noting recent improvements in labor market and other economic data. This could also motivate an upward drift in the famous policy “dot plot,” the disappointing GDP data notwithstanding. However, the hawkish tone to the Summary of Economic Projections is likely to be counteracted somewhat by Chair Yellen’s press briefing.
DB: If this wasn’t an FOMC meeting that had a press conference and fresh economic projections, there would be no point in hitting the World Cup pause button. But a look at market reactions to FOMC meetings over the past two years is clear about one thing – FOMC meetings with press conferences have consistently generated large moves, and much larger price changes than meetings without press conferences....Where does this leave the market? Firstly don’t underestimate the mix of new forecasts; new FOMC ‘dots’ and most important the Q&A, to result in surprises and some volatility. Janet Yellen probably has no interest in correcting market expectations at this stage, because a rate hike is still seen by a majority of the Fed as many months, if not a year away and expectations are not unreasonably out of line with the Fed’s own views. New geopolitical concerns and the risk of higher oil prices are adding to uncertainties and further argue against the Fed directing expectations with any certainty. Yellen is then probably a couple of FOMC meetings away from being under any real pressure to adjust market expectations, assuming recent growth and inflation trends persist. In the meantime, what is less predictable is what happens if the Fed Chair is asked some difficult questions, notably on the likely gap between tapering and tightening that led to her infamous ‘6 month’ comment. Another market sensitive line of questioning, will be on her views about secular stagnation and the neutral funds rate. Does she believe in a new neutral funds rate? It would not be a huge surprise to find out that Yellen’s views on this subject are not too far off the recent Dudley comments that made a case for a slightly lower natural rate of interest. It is also quite possible that the dots on the longer-run funds rate will come down to the point where the median is below 4%. The market will get excited, even if this is merely following the slow drift lower in the Fed’s central projections on longer-run real GDP that was 2.2% - 2.3% in March, having come down nearly 0.5% from FOMC estimates 3 years ago.
Barclays: We expect significant downward revisions to healthcare spending in the first quarter; our Q1 real GDP tracking estimate now stands at -2.0%. We look for another $10bn in tapering at the June FOMC meeting and see the Fed lowering its outlook for growth and unemployment while revising inflation higher. The Fed is also likely to debate its exit principles, with several participants arguing for delaying the removal of the reinvestment policy until after the first rate hike.
Credit Agricole: Despite new faces on the FOMC, USD should prove largely unaffected by today’s policy announcement. We expect little movement on another USD10bn reduction in asset purchases (to USD35bn), nor unchanged target (0–0.25%) and associated guidance. Given this status quo, focus will be on the SEP where US economists highlights the addition of Mr Fisher, Ms Brainard and Ms Mesters and the departure of Governor Stein may somewhat obscure any shifts in policymaker views on Fed funds trajectory projections. Finally, Ms Yellen may comment that projected 2016 Fed funds remain well below their “longer run” equilibrium to suppress speculation. In sum, we see little impact upon either USD specifically, or currency markets more generally.
BNPP: BNP Paribas economics team expects the Fed will deliver a more hawkish message at today's FOMC meeting. The statement is likely to upgrade views on inflation and the labour market and the projections of future Fed funds rates are likely to show a creep higher relative to those presented in March. In the accompanying press conference, there is likely to be some discussion of exit strategy and, while Chair Yellen is likely to continue to emphasize that rate hikes are distant, we do not expect an effort to dissuade the market from current pricing of hikes by late next year. We remain long USDCHF and short EURUSD heading into today’s meeting.
Danske: Today, focus will be on the FOMC meeting tonight. The question is whether yesterday's upside surprise to core inflation will prompt the Fed to strike a less hawkish tone this time. Given the relatively low levels in US money market rates, it does not seem that the market is positioned for a hawkish Fed. For that reason, risk might also be skewed towards a stronger dollar today.
SEB: It is widely expected that the Fed will decide to scale down asset purchases by another $10bn to $35bn per month at its meeting today. Economic data has, as expected, picked up thus far in the second quarter. This is evident both in the Beige Book and in the labor market and tapering will consequently continue at its current pace. Therefore the most interesting part in this rate decision will be the new economic projections and the press conference following the rate announcement. We expect Fed to revise down its real GDP projections for 2014 while keeping its 2015-2016 growth projections largely unchanged. Furthermore, they need to revise their unemployment forecast lower and inflation forecast higher. Also noteworthy is that there are three members of the FOMC voting for the first time at this meeting.
Nomura: The key issue for this meeting is what the FOMC will conclude, and what they and Chair Yellen will communicate, about how much closer these largely positive economic developments have brought them to beginning the process of raising short-term interest rates. The biggest changes in the FOMC's economic forecasts are likely to be for 2014, and merely be a reflection of the data already in hand. The Q2 rebound, including a pickup in inflation, could push the interest rate forecasts for 2015 and 2016 marginally higher. But the more pessimistic long-term outlook expressed by some FOMC participants may actually lead to slightly lower long-term forecasts for growth and interest rates. Market participants do not seem to be expecting significant changes from this meeting. That could mean that the reaction to any perceived shift in the trajectory for policy could be more significant.