By: GZ on Lunedì 08 Ottobre 2007 19:01
c'è un articolo negativo sul WSJ sulle banche spagnole che cita il fatto che negli ultimi dieci anni i depositi sono aumentati del 6% l'anno e i crediti erogati del 19% L'ANNO
(della serie: i prezzi della case sono aumentati del 170% in Spagna perchè ...)
se fai due conti con excel vuole dire che fatto 100 il 1997 i depositi sono aumentati da 100 a 190 e i crediti sono aumentati da 100 a 700 (non sembra ma al 19% annuo raddoppi ogni 3 anni e mezzo)
la differenza l'hanno coperta vendendo quintali di commercial papers e altri bonds legati agli immobili, probabilmente tramite conduit
nel frattempo avendo costruito dalle 600 alle 800 mila case l'anno per dieci anni i rendimenti degli affitti sono al 3% ora e con i problemi sul mercato interbancario il costo dei loro bonds sarà almeno al 5% forse anche di più e devono anche rifinanziarli
sono numeri che proprio non quadrano, ma nemmeno un poco e tra parentesi forse sono problemi del genere che possono invertire l'euro ora, temo (visto che l'ho comprato e oggi scende)
---------------------
..Housing Woes, Liquidity
Test Spain's Banks
By CHRISTOPHER BJORK
October 8, 2007; Page C7
MADRID -- As Spanish banks prepare for a critical earnings season, executives are bracing for tough questions on issues that emerged after the global liquidity crunch paralyzed markets in August.
The two big issues: how banks will weather a downturn in the domestic housing market after a decade-long boom and how they will cope with funding that has become both more expensive and less plentiful.
So far, several high-ranking bank officials have insisted that everything is under control. But the two issues have been major factors in a slew of broker downgrades over the past month.
The first test may come Wednesday, when Banco Español de Crédito SA, also known as Banesto, reports third-quarter earnings.
"Earnings should be pretty strong, but that won't solve anything. It's all about sentiment now," said Ignacio Ulargui, a banking analyst at ING in Madrid.
Investors have already punished the stock. Banesto has plunged 16% so far this year. By comparison, the IBEX index of 35 blue chips is up 5.3% so far this year, including a 1.2% rise Friday. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index has climbed 5.9% this year.
Other midsize lenders also are in the red. Banco de Sabadell SA has skidded 17%, Bankinter SA has shed 10% and Banco Popular Español SA has lost 8.7% so far this year.
Most analysts expect the impact from the summer's liquidity crunch to hit banks harder in the fourth quarter and put a break on lending growth next year.
Since early September, six major brokerages have slashed their estimates on Spain's midsize lenders. They have also said that Spanish banks no longer deserve to trade at a premium to the European average.
"Before credit-market dislocations erupted, we were advocating for a soft-landing scenario on the property market and were comfortable with banks' earnings prospects in 2007-2008," said Ignacio Cerezo Olmos, an analyst with J.P. Morgan Chase.
"We [now] believe funding uncertainties represent a source of pressure to consensus earnings."
Until recently, funding had been a secondary worry for most analysts and investors. But the summer's credit crunch, triggered by a meltdown in the U.S. subprime-lending market, shut down many channels for interbank financing. Although liquidity is slowly returning to the financing market, analysts say financing likely will be less plentiful and more costly going forward.
In Spain, the lending boom of recent years was never matched by a similar expansion in deposits.
J.P. Morgan estimates that over the past 10 years, Spanish lenders' credit portfolios have grown by around 19% a year, while deposits have grown about 6%.
To fill this gap, the lenders sold asset-backed commercial paper and covered bonds on an unprecedented scale.
"Current market conditions and further negative news flow from the housing market will introduce more uncertainties in the coming months, thus deteriorating even further market sentiment," said Deutsche Bank's Carlos Berastain. He has cut his estimates on the retail banks twice in the past three weeks because of the quick deterioration of the environment.
