La bolla speculativa

... la BIS nel suo report di cui parlavo ha ricordato che nel 1998 lo Yen rimbalzò del 20% in dieci giorni... ---- Yen rebounds as BIS outlines concerns By Peter Garnham June 25 2007 11:33 The yen advanced on Monday as the Bank for International Settlements expressed concern over carry trades. Demand for carry trades, in which the low-yielding Japanese currency is sold to fund the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets elsewhere, helped send the yen down to a four-and-a-half year low against the dollar, a record low against the euro and a 15-year trough against the pound last week. However, the yen rebounded on Monday, rising 0.2 per cent to Y123.60 against the dollar, 0.2 per cent to Y166.50 against the euro and 0.3 per cent to Y247.05 against the pound by midday in New York. The BIS said in its annual report that yen weakness was “anomalous” and warned that carry trades could unwind rapidly if investor perceptions changed. Recalling the sudden collapse in the dollar against the yen in October 1998 amid a sharp jump in risk aversion, the report said the recent substantial depreciation was “not consistent with the Japanese current account position

mi sfugge un po' il senso dell' affermazione "nasty correction in currencies" presente sul comunicato. A cosa si riferisce in particolare? Mi viene da pensare HYC contro yen.

Prendiamo il caso più estremo, la borsa inglese, quella che a venderla short è meno pericolosa la linea rossa è il Footsie confrontato con il future dicembre del libor inglese il future del Libor inglese, che si chiama "short sterling" ora riflette un tasso di interesse del 6.25% a fine anno, (quota 93.75 quindi 100-93.75 = 6.25) questo taglia le gambe alla borsa, specialmente perchè è piena di finanziari e consumo, l'energia e miniere e le fusioni finora l'hanno sostenuta, ma le fusioni ormai sono finite e manca solo che rame, nickel, zinco, petrolio si fermino e a quel punto si guarderanno intorno e diranno: " qui abbiamo accumulato 2.500 miliardi di debiti sulle spalle dei consumatori, come @#%&$£? li pagano quando il libor va al 6% ?.."

Secondo me questa è la storia più grossa di questa settimana e il comunicato della FED giovedì darà qualche sorpresa. La BIS, che riflette il modo di pensare delle banche centrali, nel suo rapporto annuale di domenica dice che le banche centrali devono alzare i tassi per combattere l'inflazione crescente, che alzarli ha anche il beneficio di far scendere i mercati ("..added benefit of reining in financial markets.."), che sia le borse che le valute possono franare ("..nasty correction in assets and currencies..") e che i mercati ora sono irrazionali ("..Financial markets may have become "irrationally exuberant", it said,..) -------------------------------- ...Central banks around the world should raise interest rates further to curb inflation pressures, the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday. The global economy is poised for a fifth straight year of growth above 4 percent, but risks remain and have as their common thread the highly accommodative financial conditions that have buoyed it in recent years, BIS General Manager Malcolm Knight said. Tighter rates would have the added benefit of reining in financial markets, which Knight said were still loaded with risk, possibly sowing the seeds for a nasty correction in assets and currencies. "Financial conditions are still accommodative, access to credit remains easy and credit spreads are at record lows," Knight said after talks with about 250 central bankers at the BIS annual general meeting. "Containing inflationary pressures seems to require further tightening in most jurisdictions, as is expected by financial markets." In its annual report, also released on Sunday, the BIS cited a resurgence in inflation, the chance of a sharper slowdown in the United States and financial market vulnerabilities as key risks to future global prosperity. Financial markets may have become "irrationally exuberant", it said, borrowing a phrase used by former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to describe the stock market boom of the 1990s. Knight said although real risk premiums had gone up in recent weeks as bond prices tumbled, they had come from very low levels and investors were still accepting a fair amount of risk. "The robust performance of the world economy can in part justify such vibrancy," he said in his speech to the AGM. "Even so, it is hard not to detect in the current climate that sense of exuberance, even hubris, that in the past has not augured well for subsequent developments."

Si stanno chiedendo .... E' tutto il pianeta che se lo chiede cosa stanno facendo e loro so sapevano benissimo dall'inizio ... Solo che quando iniziano a saltare petardi tipo Bear Stearns non possono far finta di nulla e devono , quantomeno, simulare sconcerto. La classica commedia napoletana .... Dove sono i TORI in questi momenti ?????????? In a thinly-veiled rebuke to the US Federal Reserve, the BIS said central banks were starting to doubt the wisdom of letting asset bubbles build up on the assumption that they could safely be "cleaned up" afterwards - which was more or less the strategy pursued by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan after the dotcom bust. ed i problemi della New Zealand e del perchè prima o poi si regolano i conti ... But the bank also said that tightening interest rates during an upswing was likely to bring significant practical difficulties - a fact the Reserve Bank of New Zealand knows well.

mi sembra di sentire quelle mamme fuori da scuola che si lamentano di quanto sono vivaci i loro figli, salvo poi assecondarli in ogni desiderio ed astenersi dal benchè minimo rimprovero o provvedimento "serio"

mah... in ogni caso è parola per parola l'analisi che si fa qui sull'eccesso di credito (" highly accommodating financial conditions..") i) la proliferazione di una massa di nuovi strumenti di credito come i CDO ii) livelli di debito del consumatore record iii) un "appetito estremo per il rischio" (cioè le banche e gli investitori che finanziano ogni strumento di debito in modo indiscriminato) iv) degli squilibri estremi tra le valute ---------------------- ...The BIS, the central bankers' bank, pointed to a confluence of worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system. "Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. 'Tail' events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed," it said....

ma ci sono o ci fanno?????? sono loro che tengono i tassi a livelli infimi e soprattutto cullano il mercato non dandogli mai pensieri e telegrafandogli con 6 mesi di anticipo qualsiasi mossa, e ora saltano fuori che c'è eccesso di credito??? ma che vadano tutti a farsi intubare!

La BIS a Basilea è la "Banca di tutte le Banche Centrali", quando si riunisce si incontrano Trichet, Draghi, Ben Bernanke, Fukui, Mervyn King e tutti gli altri banchieri centrali del mondo Domenica la BIS, Bank for International Settlements, ha messo fuori il report annuale e dice che si rischia una grande depressione a causa dell'eccesso di debito (^Great Depression fall looms#http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/great-depression-fall-looms/2007/06/25/1182623823367.html^..) Dice che ^le banche centrali devono alzare i tassi#http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20070624/rates-bis-knight.htm^, che il dollaro è destinato a franare e che la Cina ha fatto gli stessi errori del Giappone degli anni '80 ed è destinata a finire male --------------------------------------------- "...Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and Southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived..." "Given the key role that a benign credit environment has been playing in boosting the performance of the financial sector over the past years, a turn in the credit cycle represents a significant risk to its outlook," the Basel-based BIS said in its annual report." ... "The dollar clearly remains vulnerable to a sudden loss of private sector confidence," it said... The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s when Tokyo let rip with excess liquidity. "The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms," it said, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom and "massive investments" in heavy industry. Some 40 per cent of China's state-owned enterprises are losing money, exposing the banking system to likely stress in a downturn. It said China's growth was ^"unstable, unbalanced, unco-ordinated and unsustainable"..#http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/24/cnbis124.xml^.

la valanga di emissioni di junk bond ha avuto oggi una battuta d'arresto, due società appena comprate dai soli private equity le hanno dovuto tagliare e hanno dovuto alzare i rendimenti che pagano, dopo cinque anni in cui la domanda di bond spazzatura sembrava inesauribile.... ^il punto di rottura si avvicina#http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHanIKzA12WQ&refer=home^

in America quasi tutti i gestori ed esperti suggeriscono ora anche quando sono molto toro come Jim Cramer di investire di più all'estero che in patria e infatti i flussi nei fondi sono negativi per quelli "made in USA" e positivi per quelli internazionali. In Inghilterra idem. In Giappone il pubblico non compra azioni locali e mette tutto in conti correnti in dollaro australiano o neozelandese, o euro o sterlina o kwon coreano (forse pensano che speculare sulle valute sia più sicuro che comprare azioni giapponesi) In Italia come noto i flussi nei fondi comuni sono negativi e gli unici che attirano denaro sono quelli emergenti o asiatici. In Spagna il migliore gestore diceva sabato che ha venduto tutti i titoli spagnoli e compra solo azioni "all'estero" perchè teme un crac. ("...``Credit has increased by 25 percent a year for six years,'' Parames said. ``That's never happened anywhere else in the world, even China.'' ..") Insomma non è buffo che tutti dicono di comprare in altri paesi ? --------------------------------------- ^Bestinver's Parames Sours on Spain#http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aR8HjKWZ.ZtI&refer=uk^ By Charles Penty June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Francisco Parames, Spain's best- performing fund manager for the last five years,.. who oversees 6 billion euros ($8 billion) at Madrid-based Bestinver Asset Management, predicts a real-estate crash in his homeland will spread, dragging down companies dependent on the Spanish economy. Lending by banks and other credit institutions has almost tripled since 2000. ``A lot of people are going to be unemployed,'' said Parames, 43. ``Our most important bet is the one you can't see: that we don't bet on the Spanish economy, which is going to go through some very rough times because of the credit bubble.'' Parames is telling people to increase their investments in global shares at the expense of Spanish stocks. He's also loosening the restrictions that require him to keep mostly Spanish stocks in his main Iberian fund, buying more Portuguese shares and pseudo-local companies such as Arcelor Mittal, the world's biggest steelmaker. It is based in Rotterdam and lists shares in Madrid. The strategy is paying off for Parames. Bestinver Bolsa, his 1.16 billion-euro Iberian stock fund, had annual average returns of 27 percent over the last five years, making it the best performer of any Spanish market fund, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Parames's returns have been ``spectacular,'' said Fernando Luque, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Madrid. ``He's been faithful to this value-investing-type strategy.'' Plane Crash The Bolsa fund gained 17 percent in the five months to May 31, almost twice the 10 percent return for Madrid's IBEX 35 index. The fund has outperformed Spain's main index and the Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index of European stocks every year since 1999. Parames's biggest fund, the 1.5 billion-euro Bestinfond mixed fund, had about 18 percent in Spanish stocks at the end of March, down from 19 percent in December and about 50 percent as recently as 2005. The rest was in European equities or fixed income. It has returned an average of 25 percent over the last five years, beating the Dow Jones Stoxx 50. A month ago, Parames started advising clients to cut Spanish holdings to 30 percent of investments from 35 percent previously and 50 percent in 2003. Parames, who survived a March 2006 plane crash in northeastern Spain that killed the pilot and Bestinver's administration director, hasn't bought stocks of Spain's real- estate developers for the past five years. Property Stocks Metrovacesa SA, Spain's biggest real-estate company, climbed 150 percent in 2006. Astroc Mediterraneo SA, a real-estate company based in Valencia, sold shares in an initial public offering in May last year at 6.40 euros, and they finished the year up sixfold. This year, Astroc Mediterraneo is down almost two thirds, while Metrovacesa is about a third lower. The Bloomberg Europe Real Estate Index, which has five Spanish companies among its 15 most heavily weighted stocks, is down 1.8 percent this year after gaining 40 percent in 2006. Carlo Digrandi, a banking analyst at HSBC Holdings Plc in London, says concern about a Spanish real-estate collapse is exaggerated. Spain will remain ``buoyant,'' with the economy growing 3.1 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2008, outperforming Europe as a whole, he said in a May 18 report. ``I expect the landing will be relatively soft,'' Carlos March, the billionaire co-chairman of financial Corporacion Financiera Alba SA, said at a May 30 news conference in Madrid. ``It's evident there is a real-estate bubble.'' Alba is the biggest shareholder in Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA, Spain's biggest builder. Nowhere Else Parames prefers to be cautious. Spanish building starts reached 664,924 in 2006, according to the housing ministry, almost three times the amount in the U.K. ``Credit has increased by 25 percent a year for six years,'' Parames said. ``That's never happened anywhere else in the world, even China.'' Pablo Fernandez, a corporate-finance professor at IESE, the Barcelona-based business school where Parames got his master's in business administration in 1989, says he may be taking risks by investing in stocks with low market values. Smaller stocks are prone to fall more than larger stocks in volatile markets, he said. Of 31 stocks listed as being held in the Bolsa fund at the end of 2006, at least 12 had market valuations below 1 billion euros. Revisiting Telefonica Still, smaller stocks have accounted for a lot of Parames's gains. Viscofan SA, a Pamplona, Spain-based maker of sausage casings with a market value of 834 million euros, made up 3.6 percent of the Bolsa fund at the end of last year. The shares are up 24 percent in 2007. Campofrio Alimentacion SA, a Madrid-based meat processor with a market value of 780 million euros, had a 2 percent weighting. Its stock is up 6.5 percent this year. Parames sold shares this year in Altadis SA, a Madrid-based tobacco company that comprised 7.2 percent of the Iberian fund's assets last year to move funds into Portugal. His Portuguese holdings include Galp Energia SGPS SA, a Lisbon-based oil company, and EDP-Energias de Portugal SA, also based in the capital. Parames started buying shares last year in Madrid-based Telefonica SA, Spain's biggest company, after avoiding it for eight years. Investors aren't pricing in the full potential of the telecom company's broadband services, he says. The shares are up 5.3 percent this year. His stake in Arcelor Mittal dates from last year. The Spanish-traded shares of the steel company are up 48 percent this year. He also owns Madrid-based Mapfre SA, Spain's biggest insurer, whose shares are up 12 percent this year. Beginning With Buffett Parames honed his investment strategy by studying Buffett and Peter Lynch, the former manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund. Parames read Lynch's book, ``One Up on Wall Street,'' shortly after starting at Bestinver. He won permission from the Entrecanales family, which controls the construction and logistics company Acciona SA and owns Bestinver, to follow their investing styles. ``I got to Warren Buffett's ideas and all the value- investing at the very beginning,'' he said. ``I wasn't biased by any other kind of investment.'' While Parames's 34 Spanish holdings trade at an average of 11.5 times their 2007 estimated earnings, his 98 non-Spanish holdings tend to trade for less than 10 times earnings. His largest international holdings include Zug, Switzerland-based Metall Zug AG, Mannheim, Germany-based Fuchs Petrolub AG, Munich- based Escada AG, and Munich-based Bayerische Motoren Werke AG.

una sola: che il dollaro diventi carta straccia

c'è qualche ragione per cui debba salire a 20.000 punti il Dow ? oltre al fatto che è salito nel 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 e prima metà del 2007 per cui sembra normale che salga tutti gli anni ?

avete notato su Borsa & Finanza di sabato l'intervista al migliore gestore spagnolo che ha ricevuto una lettera da Waren Buffett che gli chiedeva consigli per le azioni spagnole e ha risposto che lui ha liquidato quasi tutto ? Non ricordo il nome di quest'uomo perchè non ho sottomano il settimanale e per leggere il pezzo occorre la password, ma diceva che ha ridotto l'esposizione alle azioni spagnole al 18% che per un fondo azionario è niente limitandosi ad alcune small cap mentre si aspetta una bella crisi per l'IBEX-35 ---------------------------------------------------- Se Borsa&Finanza, di questi tempi, pubblica articoli simili, comincio a pensare che che il mio target di 20.000 punti del Dow Jones sarà ampiamente superato

avete notato su ^Borsa & Finanza di sabato#http://www.borsaefinanza.it/^ l'intervista al migliore gestore spagnolo che ha ricevuto una lettera da Waren Buffett che gli chiedeva consigli per le azioni spagnole e ha risposto che lui ha liquidato quasi tutto ? Non ricordo il nome di quest'uomo perchè non ho sottomano il settimanale e per leggere il pezzo occorre la password, ma diceva che ha ridotto l'esposizione alle azioni spagnole al 18% che per un fondo azionario è niente limitandosi ad alcune small cap mentre si aspetta una bella crisi per l'IBEX-35