Allucinazioni in borsa - gz
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By: GZ on Sabato 08 Dicembre 2007 03:18
Il rialzo delle banche, costruzioni ed immobiliari in borsa degli ultimi tre giorni dovrebbero essere dovuto ai Tagli dei Tassi (il Canada martedì scorso, Inghilterra ieri e poi USA con la la FED prevista martedì per un bel taglio forse dello 0.5%) che per l'economia moderna sono l'equivalente economico dei miracoli di padre pio.
Nonostante però la Banca d'inghilterra abbia ridotto il tasso di interesse di riferimento il Libor a Londra e l'Euribor in europa hanno toccato oggi venerdì 7 un nuovo massimo (i tassi di interesse che le banche pagano e che poi usano per calcolarti il mutuo). Se le borse siano salite in media di un 5% e rotti in una settimana spinte in particolare da finanziari edi immobiliari dovrebbe indicare sollievo dalla crisi dei mutui no ?
Tanto più che alla prospettiva dei TAGLI si è aggiunto anche il "piano di congelamento dei mutui" di Bush/Paulson di ieri, annunciato a mercato aperti perchè ha come obiettivo non la gente che ha i mutui che è lavorare a quell'ora e non guarda la TV, ma ovviamente l'S&P500 (agli operatori per ora piace anche se nei sondaggi del Wall Street Journal di ieri l'84% del pubblico è contrario il che indica che NON è una manovra elettorale ma proprio per salvare le banche)
Pure in Italia dopo il balzo di quasi 70 punti base dell'Euribor ora hai le banche che generosamente offrono di allungare i termini del mutuo (così su 25 anni invece che su 15 anni ti costa alla fine di più, ma i giornali italiani che sono pagati e comprati dalle banche fanno ^articoli da pubblicità occulta#http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/SoleOnLine4/Finanza%20e%20Mercati/2007/12/unicredit-mps-revisione-prestiti-gratis.shtml?uuid=3ae6a162-a499-11dc-972d-00000e251029&DocRulesView=Libero^) e il governo Prodi si agita all'idea di trovare ora il modo di bruciare qualche miliardo di euro per "aiutare"
In realtà se Euribor e Libor se ne infischiano e costano uno 0.7% in più di dieci giorni fa significa che milioni di mutui in europa costano invece che un 5% ora un 5.7% ad esempio, cioè un aumento improvviso in dieci giorni del 12-14% del costo. Il che riduce ulteriormente la domanda di mutui, fa aumentare i mutui in ritardo nei pagamenti, i pignoramenti e deprime il mercato mandando in perdita altri derivati sui mutui di cui sono pieni fondi, banche, assicurazioni... il che significa che la crisi del debito continua la sua marcia
Dato che allo stesso tempo lunedì l'inflazione tedesca ha toccato il massimo dal 1992 e la BCE ieri ha ripetuto che può alzare i tassi perchè l'inflazione resta un grosso problema mentre intanto la crescita viene rivista in basso ogni settimana in pratica e in America crediti per l'auto e le carte di credito si stanno deteriorando di colpo assieme al mercato immobiliare commerciale... beh...viene da pensare che il rialzo di borsa sia effimero (e così quello del dollaro)
Ma alla base di tutto c'è il mercato immobiliare americano (ed inglese che segue a ruota) dove oggi ufficialmente la quota delle case posseduta dalle famiglie è scesa al 50%, cioè dei 25 trilioni di dollari e passa di valore delle case in america ora le banche ne hanno il 50% e le famiglie coi loro mutui il 50%. Dato che però almeno un terzo delle famiglie non ha nessun mutuo ne segue che quelle che hanno comprato la casa con mutui ne possiedono solo una frazione.
E qui ^va letto questo pezzo#http://seekingalpha.com/article/56596-some-straight-talk-on-the-mortgage-mess^ che spiega come sia TUTTO il mercato dei mutui in crisi incluso quelle delle case da un milione di dollari e ti racconta come ora dopo i mutui classici per poveracci tocchi ora si "secondi mutui" ad esplodere...
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...The ’second mortgage implosion’, ‘Pay-Option implosion’ and ‘Hybrid Intermediate-term ARM implosion’ are all happening simultaneously and about to heat up drastically. Second mortgage liens were done by nearly every large bank in the nation and really heated up in 2005, as first mortgage rates started rising and nobody could benefit from refinancing. This was a way to keep the mortgage money flowing. Second mortgages to 100% of the homes value with no income or asset documentation were among the best sellers at CITI (C), Wells (WFC), WAMU (WM), Chase (JPM), National City (NCC) and Countrywide (CFC). We now know these are worthless especially since values have indeed dropped and those who maxed out their liens with a 100% purchase or refi of a second now owe much more than their property is worth.
How are the banks going to get this junk second mortgage paper off their books? Moody’s is expecting a 15% default rate among ‘prime’ second mortgages. Just think the default rate in lower quality such as sub-prime. These assets will need to be sold for pennies on the dollar to free up capacity for new vintage paper or borrowers allowed to pay 50 cents on the dollar, for instance, to buy back their note.
The latter is probably where the ’second mortgage implosion’ will end up going. Why sell the loan for 10 cents on the dollar when you can get 25 to 50 cents from the borrower and lower their total outstanding liens on the property at the same time, getting them ‘right’ in the home again? Wells Fargo recently said they owned $84 billion of this worthless paper. That is a lot of seconds at an average of $100,000 a piece. Already, many lenders are locking up the second lines of credit and not allowing borrowers to pull the remaining open available credit to stop the bleeding. Second mortgages are defaulting at an amazing pace and it is picking up every month.
The ‘Pay-Option ARM implosion’ will carry on for a couple of years. In my opinion, this implosion will dwarf the ’sub-prime implosion’ because it cuts across all borrower types and all home values. Some of the most affluent areas in California contain the most Option ARMs due to the ability to buy a $1 million home with payments of a few thousand dollars per month. Wamu, Countrywide, Wachovia (WB), IndyMac (IMB), Downey (DSL) and Bear Stearns (BSC) were/are among the largest Option ARM lenders. Option ARMs are literally worthless with no bids found for many months for these assets. These assets are almost guaranteed to blow up. 75% of Option ARM borrowers make the minimum monthly payment. Eighty percent-plus are stated income/asset. Average combined loan-to-value are at or above 90%. The majority done in the past few years have second mortgages behind them.
The clue to who will blow up first is each lenders ‘max neg potential’ allowance, which differs. The higher the allowance, the longer until the borrower gets the letter saying ‘you have reached your 110%, 115%, 125% etc maximum negative of your original loans balance so you cannot accrue any more negative and must pay a minimum of the interest only (or fully indexed payment in some cases). This payment rate could be as much as three times greater. They cannot refinance, of course, because the programs do not exist any longer to any great degree, the borrowers cannot qualify for other more conventional financing or values have dropped too much.
Also, the vast majority have second mortgages behind them putting them in a seriously upside down position in their home. If the first mortgage is at 115%, the second mortgage in many cases is at 100% at the time of origination — and values have dropped 10%-15% in states like California — many home owners could be upside down 20% minimum. This is a prime example of why these loans remain ‘no bid’ and will never have a bid. These also will require a workout. The big difference between these and sub-prime loans is at least with sub-prime loans, outstanding principal balances do not grow at a rate of up to 7% per year. Not considering every Option ARM a sub-prime loan is a mistake.
The 3/1, 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 hybrid interest-only ARMS will reset in droves beginning now. These are loans that are fixed at a low introductory interest only rate for three, five, seven or 10 years — then turn into a fully indexed payment rate that adjusts annually thereafter. They first got really popular in 2003. Wells Fargo led the pack in these but many people have them. The resets first began with the 3/1 last year.
The 5/1 was the most popular by far, so those start to reset heavily in 2008. These were considered ‘prime’ but Wells and many others would do 95%-100% to $1 million at a 620 score with nearly as low of a rate as if you had a 750 score. No income or asset versions of this loan were available at a negligible bump in fee. This does not sound too ‘prime’ to me. These loans were mostly Jumbo in higher priced states such as California.
Values are down and these are interest only loans, therefore, many are severely underwater even without negative-amortization on this loan type. They were qualified at a 50% debt-to-income ratio, leaving only 50% of a borrower’s income to pay taxes, all other bills and live their lives. These loans put the borrower in the grave the day they signed their loan docs especially without major appreciation. These loans will not perform as poorly overall as sub-prime, seconds or Option ARMs but they are a perfect example of what is still considered ‘prime’ that is at risk. Eighty-eight percent of Thornburg’s portfolio is this very loan type for example.
One final thought. How can any of this get repaired unless home values stabilize? And how will that happen? In Northern California, a household income of $90,000 per year could legitimately pay the minimum monthly payment on an Option ARM on a million home for the past several years. Most Option ARMs allowed zero to 5% down. Therefore, given the average income of the Bay Area, most families could buy that million dollar home. A home seller had a vast pool of available buyers.
Now, with all the exotic programs gone, a household income of $175,000 is needed to buy that same home, which is about 10% of the Bay Area households. And, inventories are up 500%. So, in a nutshell we have 90% fewer qualified buyers for five-times the number of homes. To get housing moving again in Northern California, either all the exotic programs must come back, everyone must get a 100% raise or home prices have to fall 50%. None, except the last sound remotely possible.
What I am telling you is not speculation. I sold BILLIONs of these very loans over the past five years. I saw the borrowers we considered ‘prime’. I always wondered ‘what WILL happen when these things adjust is values don’t go up 10% per year’.
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