Scettico sull'Oro - gz
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By: GZ on Giovedì 28 Novembre 2002 17:38
Leggere questo bellissimo commento di uno dei maggiori scettici sull'oro Andy Smith, di Mitsui Global.
In sostanza dice : con tutto quello che è successo quest'anno, crollo di borsa, dollaro debole, tassi ai minimi storici degli ultimi 30 anni, liquidità che viene pompata dalle banche centrali, terrorismo e guerra, materie prime tutte in aumento l'oro, i produttori che sollevano le "hedge" short... i metalli preziosi avrebbero dovuto salire tutto l'anno !
Era impossibile inventare uno scenario più ideale per l'oro e l'argento. E invece sono saliti fino a maggio per poi scendere da fine maggio ad adesso.
E una delle ragioni è che in India che è il paese che consuma più oro (e argento) per uso domestico e di tesaurizzazione (più dell'occidente messo assieme) la gente si è messa a venderlo per comprare cellulari e altri oggetti di largo consumo
...The biggest gold skeptic just may be Andy Smith, whose commodities analysis for Mitsui Global in London has outfoxed gold's believers for more than a decade. Smith regularly skewers the metal in his daily and weekly reports. He was the first to forecast an increased desire by consumers in India, one of the largest buyers of gold and silver jewelry, to spend their money instead on mobile telephones and digital gadgets.
"Jeeez, $320 to $325 was the low in 1993 when George Soros and (James) Goldsmith came in," Smith says of the brief boost given gold by the two billionaires. "Now we aspire to that? Nine years later? Oh, think of the opportunity cost. And weep."
In essence, Smith says if gold were taking a major exam, it would flunk. "The world is ending, supposedly. And miners are eating their hedges? And $8 trillion has been wiped off Wall Street? And U.S. rates are at the lowest since the horizontal axis was invented?" Smith poses. "Intermediaries justifiably ask - if this is as good as it gets, why stick around for the bad times?"
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Putting the pedal to the metal
Analysts see 'critical juncture' for gold price
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:28 AM ET Nov. 27, 2002
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - It's time investors put the pedal to the metal, say a growing number of gold analysts.
The precious metal's inability to surpass $325 an ounce, and stay there, is trying the patience of some of the most loyal of gold's backers.
"Gold is at a critical juncture," says James Turk, whose Freemarket Gold & Money Report took the step this month of challenging the stubborn gold price. Turk, founder of payment system Goldmoney.com and a longtime bullion investor, believes gold is at a turning point.
"Either we move up and climb over $325 within the next few weeks or we go back and test support below the $310 area. Or perhaps worse," Turk tells me. Spot gold's price Wednesday was $318 an ounce, giving it a 17 percent gain for the year but leaving it $11 shy of its 2002 high.
Turk goes so far as to reference Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave forecast - that the price of gold will move below $200 an ounce before finally ending its 22-year bear market.
Others in the gold camp are starting to wonder whether the metal has any life left for 2002.
"I count six times in 2002 that gold has penetrated $320 an ounce, failed to break $327 and then fallen back below $320," says John Doody of Gold Stock Analyst, one of several newsletters devoted to mining companies and precious metals.
"I'm not a technician, but if $327 again proves a barrier, traders may
lose enthusiasm for continuing to bang their heads against the wall," Doody tells me. The newsletter editor will join several dozen analysts, fund managers and mining executives at the San Francisco Precious Metals Conference on Dec. 1 and 2.
The biggest gold skeptic just may be Andy Smith, whose commodities analysis for Mitsui Global in London has outfoxed gold's believers for more than a decade. Smith regularly skewers the metal in his daily and weekly reports. He was the first to forecast an increased desire by consumers in India, one of the largest buyers of gold and silver jewelry, to spend their money instead on mobile telephones and digital gadgets.
"Jeeez, $320 to $325 was the low in 1993 when George Soros and (James) Goldsmith came in," Smith says of the brief boost given gold by the two billionaires. "Now we aspire to that? Nine years later? Oh, think of the opportunity cost. And weep."
In essence, Smith says if gold were taking a major exam, it would flunk. "The world is ending, supposedly. And miners are eating their hedges? And $8 trillion has been wiped off Wall Street? And U.S. rates are at the lowest since the horizontal axis was invented?" Smith poses. "Intermediaries justifiably ask - if this is as good as it gets, why stick around for the bad times?"
Of course, gold's staunchest believers, and they include Doody and Turk, see the metal's falling price as an opportunity for disenchanted stock-market investors.
Robert Bishop of Gold Mining Stock Report is pragmatic. Bishop dismisses most of the short-term analysis and says the metal is two years into a major move to higher ground.
"With two years of rising gold market behind us, and massive anecdotal and fundamental evidence that this cycle has barely begun, I want my money on the side of the major trend," Bishop says. "That said, gold's history of failures means I want to spend new money only when gold is dealt a setback, not when it's one the verge of one more potential breakout."
Frank Giustra, a merchant banker who founded Endeavour Mining Capital (CA:EDV: news, chart, profile), says gold's narrow trading range in the past two months - $315 to $325 an ounce - will lead to a sharp move in one direction or other "soon."
Giustra sees the metal taking its lead from the U.S. dollar. Gold prices generally rise when the value of the dollar is declining against other currencies - a sign of fiscal turmoil. "I am quite amazed how well the dollar has held up thus far, given all the forces that are working against it, including the trade deficit, the Fed rate drop and growth in government debt," Giustra says. "But it's just a matter of time."
Others pin gold's future on the fate of the dollar. "There is ample evidence to suggest gold is going to trade higher for the foreseeable future," says Paul van Eeden of the newsletter International Speculator. "It is highly likely that foreigners will lose their appetite for U.S. equities, and perhaps other investments, which in turn would lead to a lower dollar and a higher gold price."
Doug Pollitt of Toronto investment bank Pollitt & Co. says the nail biting is all for naught. "A breakout through $325 would certainly look good on the charts. If the wall remains intact, what's the downside?"
Pollitt cited strong physical demand for the metal, in part from mining companies that are closing their books on the practice of hedging, or forward-selling their gold. Gold Fields Mineral Services says miners' programs of eliminating their hedges contributed 255 tons of demand for gold in the first half of this year. That's up from 38.5 tons in the first half of 2001.
"Given the support beneath the market, I am surprised that no one with deep pockets and a sense of adventure has yet to try to probe the stops above the market," Pollitt says. "You know, give her a little push and see what happens. We could see a lot more demand at $340 an ounce than we ever saw at $315."
Gold shows ahead
Several dozen strategists, fund managers and mining executives will be speaking at the San Francisco Precious Metals Conference, which starts Dec. 1. The show will feature top executives from Harmony Gold Mining (HMY: news, chart, profile), which just listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Goldcorp (GG: news, chart, profile) and Hecla Mining (HL: news, chart, profile), among others. See: San Francisco gold show.
In late January, mining analysts and gold bugs will get their first chance of the new year to examine gold's performance - and the activity of mining companies -- at the Vancouver Investment Conference in Canada. See: Canada gold show.
Modificato da - gz on 11/28/2002 16:52:40