Ora tocca agli inglesi (spagnoli, francesi...) - gz
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By: GZ on Giovedì 09 Agosto 2007 04:22
dal 18 luglio al 6 agosto c'è stata una prima gamba di ribasso che ha tagliato un -10% circa dalle borse occidentali e di meno dalle orientali dovuta solo a un problema limitato in un solo paese, in pratica una parte dei mutui americani per la casa sono indietro nei pagamenti (e i derivati su questi mutui hanno creato perdite ad alcuni hedge funds e banche)
Se ci pensi non è poi granchè e puoi dire ma perchè cavolo in europa abbiamo perso dei -11% in borsa in media che solo due o tre fondi europei hanno mostrato perdite su derivati del genere ?
ma il bubbone più pericoloso è in Inghilterra (e Spagna) come spiega oggi anche Bloomberg, i tassi di interesse inglesi stanno per essere portati al 6% a settembre e intanto il costo della casa (e del mutuo) inglese è UNDICI VOLTE LO STIPENDIO MEDIO
A differenza dell'america i prezzi non hanno ancora cominciato a scendere per cui chi ha fatto un mutuo ai prezzi assurdi recenti può ancora in teoria vendere la casa e ripagare il mutuo.
In America i prezzi delle case sono scesi in media del 4 o 5% e c'è ora crisi e panico, nonostante i tassi USA siano un poco più bassi di quelli inglesi (5.25% contro 5.75%) e nonostante i prezzi medi delle case siano un 30% inferiori rispetto al reddito degli inglesi (o spagnoli o francesi).
Non appena i prezzi delle case in europa comincino a scendere anche qui hai chi fatto il mutuo nel 2006 e 2005 che sprofonda nel guano
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... The British are deeper in the red than any other major economy. According to data from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London, the ratio of household debt to personal income is 1.62 in the U.K., compared with 1.42 in the U.S., 1.36 in Japan and 1.09 in Germany.
The U.K. is now facing a subprime crisis on a similar scale to the U.S. As anyone who has taken out a mortgage in Britain will know, banks shovel out money without asking many questions. A review by the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority last month criticized reckless lending in the subprime sector, which has, it said, ``resulted in the approval of potentially unaffordable mortgages.''
No Proof of Income
The British market doesn't fall neatly into ``prime'' and ``subprime'' categories. Most of the mainstream lenders offer so- called self-certified mortgages, which require no proof of income. Plenty of prime borrowers -- meaning people who haven't defaulted on a loan yet -- are likely to take out mortgages that will be hard to make the payments on.
The U.K. subprime crisis may be a lot nastier than the U.S one. Here's why.
First, despite the mounting evidence that people can't afford them, house prices continue to soar. The National Housing Federation predicted this week that British house prices will rise 40 percent in the next five years, taking the average value of a home to 302,400 pounds ($618,000) by 2012.
The average British home already costs 11 times the average local salary, and that figure continues to increase. It is driven mainly by the U.K.'s small geographic size, high levels of immigration, and very low levels of house building. People have to live somewhere -- a home, after all, isn't an optional item for most of us.
The net result is that even as payment problems mount, people will carry on taking out bigger mortgages. What choice do they have?
Rate Differences
Next, U.S. interest rates may have reached their peak and could soon fall. In the U.K., that isn't the case. The Bank of England is likely to raise borrowing costs at least once more to 6 percent. If the housing market and general inflation don't show any sign of responding to that treatment, interest rates could go higher still. That won't help borrowers already hard-pressed to make their payments.
There should be two self-correcting mechanisms for fixing a subprime crisis in the housing market. House prices should gently fall, making properties more affordable, and reducing the size of loans. And interest rates should stabilize or fall, making the payments on those loans easier to maintain.
Neither seems to apply in the U.K.
Instead, interest rates are rising and so are house prices. The result is that thousands of families are left in a vulnerable position -- and so are the banks that have lent them money (not to mention the investors who have bought those loans as they have been sold on).
Just Walk Away
While the property market rises, everyone will be safe. If your house is worth more than your mortgage, you will be desperate to hold on to it. If you get into trouble, you can always sell it, repay the loan, and move somewhere cheaper.
Yet, as the U.S. has discovered, if house prices start to fall, that arithmetic changes. If you are in trouble with your mortgage, you can't pay it off by selling. There is little incentive to keep up the payments. Why not just walk away, and hand the keys and the problems over to the mortgage company?
Britain hasn't reached that point yet. But if it does, the mess could be even worse than in the U.S.
