By: GZ on Mercoledì 01 Agosto 2007 19:29
il commentatore più ubiquo (radio, TV show, sito TheStreet.com, podcast e internet TV) d'America, il super toro Jim Cramer invoca ora 100 punti di taglio dei tassi da parte della FED altrimenti l'S&P può perdere un -12% (cioè un altro -6%) e quelli che hanno fatto mutui nel 2005 e 2006 perdono la casa
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....All in all, these two problems are not as bad as what we had in 1990-1991, which is why it is definitely worth it to be long some bull-market stocks against being short the Financial Spyder bank index (BKX) and housing index (HGX), which can still go lower, not appreciably lower but lower. Again, better than 1990-1991.
Use that era as your benchmark. Use the 10%-12% drop as a yardstick. Pick in the bull markets. Recognize that in 1990 there was no bottom, even in the high-yielding banks -- their dividends all correctly became suspect -- and be prepared for the worst, knowing that the worst is not as bad as what we saw in 1990.
Understand, though, that mortgage loans will be almost impossible to get because the banks will all overcompensate. The Fed must see this. The Fed must cut 100 basis points this year to make it so it is not worth walking away from your house, as it is right now if you bought in 2005 or 2006. Those who were about to get loans from American Home (AHM) must be thrilled! They can back out of the home deal!