l'Asia consuma e spende ora - gz
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By: GZ on Lunedì 28 Ottobre 2002 10:33
Stock:
Cina iShares MSCI,
Copper, Comex
Come noto cinesi, giapponesi, coreani e thailandesi hanno sempre avuto i tassi di risparmio più alti del mondo (la mia filippina ha già risparmiato e comprato una casa e terreno al suo paese..) e hanno sempre puntato solo a esportare più che a consumare come volano di crescita economica.
Ma dopo il crac del 1997 e il rallentamento delle economie occidentali degli gli ultimi due anni piano piano si sono messi anche loro a puntare sulla domanda interna attraverso il credito al consumo.
Questo spiega ad esempio perchè la Corea crescal al 4-5% e la Thailandia cresca al 5-6% quest'anno.
Leggere questa affascinante storia del WSJ sull'impatto che le carte di credito e il credito al consumo sta avendo in asia nello sviluppare la domanda e il mercato interno.
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ANGKOK -- Tanawan Prampridi, a secretary at a water-filter factory, has been
living large since she started using credit cards.
In the first half of the year, the 24-year-old bought three big-ticket items
that each cost more than her 12,000-baht ($274) monthly salary: a Sony VCR, a
Karaoke VCD machine and a 13,900-baht Nokia mobile phone as a gift for her
younger sister.
"I never would have been able to afford the electrical appliances. But with
credit cards, it's easier to make a decision," says Ms. Prampridi. "I can pay
for it in installments."
That is music to the ears of Thailand's bankers, retailers and economic
czars. Thailand is on a campaign to wean itself from exports as the global
economy wobbles, following the example of nations such as South Korea that have
broadened their economic base by strengthening the domestic, consumer-led
segments of their economies. Credit cards are the weapon of choice in this
battle. Suddenly in Thailand, banks are making credit cards -- once offered
only to the country's well-heeled elite -- accessible to average consumers. And
in April, the Bank of Thailand allowed banks to set their own minimum income
bar on credit-card applicants, a move designed to level the playing field with
the country's aggressive finance companies.
Thailand's efforts mirror similar moves across export-dependent Asia, where
economic planners have used government policy to promote consumer spending
through opening the borrowing spigot, particularly through credit cards.
Credit-card receivables in Asia ex-Japan increased fivefold from 1996 through
last year, when they totaled $101 billion; UBS Warburg predicts that figure
will more than double by 2005.
Asia's sudden shift to cheap consumer credit has sparked a sharp rise in
credit-card delinquencies, a trend economists say needs to be closely watched.
But in the meantime, credit cards and other consumer borrowing have helped
engineer an important shift in the region's economies. Korea, which has moved
the fastest down this path, managed last year to break the traditional link
between exports and consumption. On the back of massive credit-card issuance,
nonfarm income grew by 7.9% and private consumption grew 8.4% in 2001 from the
previous year, even as exports fell 13%, according to UBS Warburg.
"That's partly due to banks saying `here's credit, go spend', and partly
because credit growth boosted income growth in the services sector," says Arup
Raha, chief economist of UBS Warburg. "It actually generated income in the
retail, wholesale and financial sectors."
If Ms. Prampridi is any measure, the Bank of Thailand's efforts are showing
early signs of effecting the same kind of structural change. The bespectacled
secretary, who graduated with an English degree two years ago, is the first
person in her family to use a credit card.
Walking through a Tesco Lotus hypermarket in Bangkok one recent night, Ms.
Prampridi tosses shampoo, tissues and laundry detergent into her cart. The
small purchases, like her weekly haul of groceries, goes onto her credit card.
Ms. Pampridi owes nearly twice her monthly salary on two credit cards, but she
isn't particularly concerned. "I always pay the minimum, or more than the
minimum if I can. I'm very disciplined."
Thailand's credit-card market started to gain steam last year when finance
companies such as Aeon Thana Sinsap (Thailand) PCL and GE Capital began
aggressively courting middle-income consumers. The number of bank-issued credit
cards in issue in Thailand surged 36% to 2.6 million in the first quarter of
2002 over the previous year.
GE Capital, for example, set up a joint venture with a local bank last year
that gives credit cards to consumers who earn as little as 10,000 baht a month.
And GE also has issued 1.3 million store-specific, private-label cards through
grocery, electronics and department stores to consumers who earn as little as
7,000 baht a month.
The central bank's deregulatory move in April was designed to level the
playing field for banks, which have operated under tighter restrictions. As
part of that move, the central bank lowered the minimum age from 22 to 20, and
the minimum required payment to 5% of the monthly bill from 10%. Now banks in
Thailand are aggressively marketing cards through telemarketers, kiosks in
malls and subway stations, and a flood of direct mail.
Enticing consumers to borrow and spend, however, can prove a double-edged
sword; credit-card delinquency and personal-bankruptcy cases have soared in
Korea and Hong Kong in the wake of explosive issuance growth. In Korea, the
credit-card bills overdue by 30 days or more reached 7.9% of total credit-card
lending in the second quarter, well above the 4.6% rate in the U.S. That rate
was just 1.7% in Hong Kong, but banks there said they expect to write off a
larger percentage of their credit-card lending than U.S. banks.
The experience in Korea and Hong Kong has raised concerns in Thailand.
Varakorn Samakoses, director of the Institute of Economic Studies at
Dhurakijpundit University, says consumer credit is a good thing, but that it is
happening too quickly. "I don't think Thai people are used to these
facilities. Especially the lower and middle class, and that's where the danger
lies," he says.
Thailand has two fledgling credit bureaus, neither of which have signed up a
complete roster of banks and finance companies, never mind other credit-based
companies, such as department stores and mobile-phone companies.
So people like Narong Kongnun slip easily through the cracks. Mr. Kongnun,
an administrative assistant at a logistics company, got a credit card last
month so he could pay off street lenders. Mr. Kongun ran into financial
trouble two years ago when disease wiped out a shrimp farm he had bought with
his cousins. He had used his paddy fields in the south as collateral for a
loan for the farm, lost 400,000 baht and is still paying the banks off. He has
since borrowed about 30,000 baht from people he deems "friends," who charge 60%
per annum, to stretch his 14,000 baht per month salary.
"I got this card mainly to get cash advances. I realize the interest (rate)
is high," he says, looking weary. "But when it's necessary, it's necessary."
Besides, he says, he can get into only so much trouble: the ceiling on the card
is just 10,000 baht.
Ms. Prystay is a staff reporter in The Wall Street Journal's Kuala Lumpur
bureau.
Edited by - gz on 10/28/2002 9:47:30
