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Non c'è tanto come raccomandazioni oggi, e in prevalenza sono negative Lehman spinge ^MBNA#^ (carte di credito) Goldman taglia ^Agilent#^ Credit Suisse è negativo sui semiconduttori Prudential cauto sul software Un buy su ^Cendant#^ Corporation (CD / NYSE) di Salomon Smith Barney CHANGE IN RATINGS Agilent Technologies (A / NYSE) Bank of America Montgomery Reducing our EPS estimates to a loss of $0.93 in fiscal 2002 and a profit of $0.47 for next year. The company reported weaker sales and orders in the latest quarter, with slower growth stretching across the board. Maintain Buy rating and $22 price target. Agilent Technologies (A / NYSE) Lehman Bros Cutting our estimates to a loss of $0.95 per share in 2002 and a profit of $0.15 for next year. The company reported softer prices and greater costs with the implementation of its ERP system. Maintain Equal-weight rating. Agilent Technologies (A / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Downgrading our rating to Equal-weight, with a $26 price target. We believe the company lacks near-term catalysts. Agilent must also further cut operating costs. Agilent Technologies (A / NYSE) NEWS The maker of test and measurement equipment said in a statement that, excluding certain costs, it had a loss of 31 cents a share in the third quarter ended July 31, which was wider than the loss of 10 cents to 20 cents a share it had expected. BellSouth Corporation (BLS / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We are downgrading shares of BellSouth to Hold from Buy based on our UNE-P analysis. We anticipate that the growth of UNE-P will have a significant impact on BellSouth's 2003 earnings and that it will be difficult for the company to hit the Street's growth expectations for the year. Our new price target of $26 per share (was $28) is based on our discounted cash flow analysis. This lowered target incorporates changes to our models to reflect the effects of UNE-P based competition. Credence Systems Corp. (CMOS / Nasdaq) Credit Suisse First Boston Downgrading our rating to Hold, with a $13 price target. We believe the stock will have difficulty moving higher, until the company reaches some important sales milestones. Also widening our loss estimates to $1.25 per share in 2002 and $0.70 for next year. Jefferies Group (JEF / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney Initiated coverage on JEF with a Neutral, High Risk rating and $50 target. JEF is an institutional trader and investment bank focused on the middle market. Small/Mid-cap equities and high yield are focus, with relatively light competition providing good margins. Small caps have outperformed past couple of years, though, so recent growth may not be sustainable. Premcor (PCO / NYSE) Lehman Bros Initiating coverage with an Underweight rating and $15 price target. We think the company will face significant challenges with its new acquisition growth strategy, despite management's excellent record. SBC Communications (SBC / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We are downgrading shares of Verizon to Hold from Buy based on our analysis that suggests the company will see a significant impact to its earnings in 2003, making it difficult to hit the Street's growth expectations for the year. Our new price target of $34 per share (was $50) is based on our discounted cash flow analysis that has incorporated the changes to our models that include the effects of UNE-P based competition. AT&T Corporation (T / NYSE) JP Morgan Chase & Co. We are upgrading AT&T to Buy from Long-term Buy. First, we believe that we are seeing the early economic indicators of a solidifying foundation from which a recovery in telecom demand in the enterprise market will be built. Second, the prospect of a weakening consumer market should turn investors' attention to companies with heavy enterprise exposure. Third, although a clich, we believe it is true that AT&T really is best positioned to benefit from the flight to quality. Verizon Communications (VZ / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We are downgrading shares of Verizon to Hold from Buy based on our analysis that suggests the company will see a significant impact to its earnings in 2003, making it difficult to hit the Street's growth expectations for the year. Our new price target of $34 per share (was $50) is based on our discounted cash flow analysis that has incorporated the changes to our models that include the effects of UNE-P based competition. Vivendi Universal (V / NYSE) Sanford Bernstein Upgrading our rating from Market Perform to Outperform. back to top STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES Cendant Corporation (CD / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney Cendant announced today that the SEC will accept its certification today, when it files an amended 10K/A and has removed "certain non-financial disclosures". We believe the SEC may still be requesting clarifications, including transactions with off-balance sheet entities. We believe that even if SEC requires more consolidation, the resulting additional transparency would be applauded by investors. Reiterate Buy rating. Centurytel (CTL / NYSE) NEWS The provider of telecommunications and data services said in a statement that it will sell $250 million in unsecured senior notes and $150 million in unsecured convertible senior debentures through private placements. Citigroup (C / NYSE) Lehman Bros Adjusting our estimates to remove the earnings impact from the Traveler's spin-off. We now expect the company to earn $2.95 this year. Maintain Equal-weight rating. GameStop (GME / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney With over 6x more titles to be released through Nov. versus last year, the current wave looks poised to continue. GameStop raised 2002 expectations, and we are increasing our 3Q EPS to $0.13 from $0.12 and with the upside from 2Q, our 2002 estimate rises to $0.96 from $0.91. Carrying through expected 25% growth, we are also raising our 2003E EPS to $1.20 from $1.16. Reiterate Buy rating. GameStop (GME / NYSE) NEWS The video and computer games retailer said in a statement that it expects to earn as much as 14 cents a share in the current quarter. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call is a profit of 12 cents. Global SantaFe (GSF / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Reducing estimates to $1.25 per share in 2002 and $1.45 for next year, to account for further deterioration in the North Sea market. Maintain Strong Buy rating, as the company has well diversified assets, and we believe GSF will close the valuation gap with its peers. GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK / NYSE) NEWS A U.S. federal judge said that the drugmaker must pull television advertisements describing the antidepressant Paxil as ``non-habit forming.'' Home Depot (HD / NYSE) NEWS Home Depot Inc.'s second- quarter earnings rose 28 percent as the world's largest home- improvement retailer opened more outlets and offered services such as power-tool rentals. Sales at stores open at least a year were little changed. Net income climbed to $1.18 billion, or 50 cents a share, from $924 million, or 40 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement. Revenue in the quarter ended Aug. 4 increased 12 percent to $16.3 billion. Sales at stores open at least a year rose 1 percent, less than the company's forecast for a 2 percent to 4 percent gain. The Atlanta-based chain was expected to earn 47 cents, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call. Home Depot forecast third-quarter profit of 40 cents a share, matching the average estimate of analyst. H&R Block (HRB / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. We think the company will exceed July quarter estimates, given continued strength in the subprime mortgage business. Reiterate Overweight rating and $53 price target. Kulicke and Soffa Inds. (KLIC / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros The company is reducing headcount further, to rapidly lower the break-even level, because of lower revenues. Reiterate our Underweight rating, and strongly recommend that investors avoid KLIC shares. May Department Stores (MAY / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney By 2006, the impact of stock options is expected to be approximately $0.08 per share or 2% of fully diluted EPS. On a separate note, Gene Kahn, Chairman and CEO and Thomas Fingleton, EVP and CFO, filed unqualified sworn statements with the SEC on August 16, affirming May's SEC filings this year, including its 2001 10-K, first quarter 2002 10-Q, and all 8-Ks. May also announced its intention to redeem all of its 8 3/8% debentures due in 2022. The debt redemption will result in a $0.02 per share charge in 3Q02 and as a result, we have lowered our estimate to $0.26 from $0.28 previously. Maintain Neutral rating. Marvell Technology Group (MRVL / Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney Overall, we expect that the company will likely meet or slightly exceed its 10-12% sequential sales growth target and our EPS estimate and Street consensus of $0.09. We believe that the outlook for the October quarter will reflect similar sequential growth, so Street estimates will likely be slightly increased. We remain concerned about pricing and gross margins over the intermediate- and longer-term, but the July results should reflect the company's very solid revenue growth momentum. Reiterate Outperform rating. OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Cutting our price target to $20 per share, given our lower peak sales assumptions. Maintain Overweight rating. Qwest Communications Int. (Q / NYSE) NEWS The local- telephone company agreed to sell its telephone-book unit for $7 billion to buyout firms Carlyle Group Inc. Scholastic Corporation (SCHL / Nasdaq) Prudential Securities Raising our price target to $51 per share, as we believe the company will garner a higher valuation in this market. Reiterate Buy rating. SanDisk Corporation (SNDK / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read SanDisk announced that it signed cross license and supply agreements with Samsung Electronics, and that both companies have dropped their lawsuits against each other. We believe that SanDisk should benefit both short-term and long-term from linking up with its toughest competitor. We are raising our 3Q EPS estimate to $0.09, from $0.07, and we are raising our full year 2002 EPS estimate to $0.15, from $0.08, factoring in 32%revenue growth. SanDisk Corporation (SNDK / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Improving our EPS estimates to $0.11 for this year and $0.55 in 2003. The company signed a patent cross-licensing deal with Samsung, which should raise royalty sales. Maintain Equal-weight rating. Synopsys (SNPS / Nasdaq) Credit Suisse First Boston Trimming our price target to $54 per share, ahead of the company's earnings report. No change to our estimates or Buy rating though, as we believe the SNPS fundamental story remains intact. back to top STRATEGY CALLS / MARKET CALLS Warburg Dillon Read (Machinery) Corn prices improved over the past week, while soybean and wheat prices declined. We remain with Buy ratings on AGCO, CNH Global and Deere, reflecting our expectation that strong farm commodity prices will cause investors to bid up the shares in anticipation of earnings recovery in 2003. Prudential Securities (Enterprise App. Software) Spending on enterprise application software grew at an annual rate in excess of 20% throughout the 1990's. Growth in the four largest vendors (SAP, ORCL, PSFT, SEBL - "the Big Four")peaked in 2000 with a 47% license increase from 1999. 2002 revenue is setting up to be a dismal year with license revenue declining 25% in the first half of the year. We expect only a modest improvement in License Rev. Growth in 2003. We rate SAP, ORCL a Buy, PSFT and SEBL as a Hold. SALOMON SMITH BARNEY (Wireless Towers) We believe there is a greater risk of slower growth in 2H02 and 2003 in light of these results and have modeled multiple downside scenarios. Consolidation pressure on WSPs appears to have increased and could lead to reduced wireless capex moving forward. Although tower operators are taking the right steps to reach free cash flow breakeven by reducing new tower construction, this could be delayed by a further slowdown in wireless subscriber growth and WSP capex levels. Reducing our rating on American Tower to 3S from 1S and our price target to $2 from $6. Reducing our rating on SBA Communications to 4S from 3S and our price target to $1.50 from $2.00. Credit Suisse First Boston (Chip Equipment) We believe tonight's book-to-bill figure will begin to show a downtrend in order, as momentum is waning. Results will be helped by AMAT, but others continue to see double-digit declines. Maintain our Underweight stance. back to top ECONOMICS International Trade (Jun, 2002) LJR Redbook (wk8/17, 2002) BTM Chain Store Sales(wk8/17, 2002) Treasury Budget (Jul, 2002) Modificato da - gz on 8/20/2002 15:52:38

Gestori intervistati oggi sul Corriere, Azimut e Pioneer: molto scettici ------------------- corriere di oggi --------------- Solo una tregua, meglio aspettare» «I dati dell’economia reale non giustificano ancora la fiducia» MILANO - Dopo la lunga stagione dei ribassi, i mercati stanno semplicemente «riprendendo fiato». Ma, così come era obiettivamente ingiustificato il panico di quando si vendeva senza ragione, anche questa improvvisa fiammata va giudicata con la lente della ragione e non dell’emozione. Alessandro Capeccia, gestore del comparto azionario di Azimut, invita alla cautela. E’ un rialzo di natura soltanto tecnica? «C’è una componente fisiologica nel comportamento di Piazza Affari delle ultime due sedute. Un rimbalzo così violento dipende certamente dal mutato atteggiamento della speculazione. Ma non dimentichiamo che certe quotazioni erano scese a livelli davvero bassi. Un rimbalzo poteva essere messo in conto». Aggiustamenti, insomma, non una vera inversione di tendenza... «E’ presto per dirlo. L’ondata di fiducia non è certo suffragata dai dati dell’economia reale; d’altra parte non lo era stata nemmeno la fase precedente, quella dell’eccessivo pessimismo. Personalmente resto prudente, anche se non mi sorprenderei se la crescita dovesse proseguire ancora per alcuni giorni». Quindi, che cosa si può suggerire agli investitori? «Il consiglio è quello di mantenere un orizzonte di lungo periodo. Eviterei dunque di comprare sugli spunti al rialzo come quello di ieri, così come non si deve vendere spinti dalla paura o, peggio, dal panico». Comparti su cui puntare? «Quelli che sono scesi di più: assicurazioni e risparmio gestito». MILANO - «Non bastano due giorni consecutivi, o anche più, di rialzo per creare una tendenza». Anche Davide Cataldo, responsabile investimenti della sede di Milano di Pioneer (Unicredito), è scettico sulla solidità della ripresa delle Borse. E in ogni caso tiene a ribadire che le decisioni di investimento dovrebbero prescindere dalle oscillazioni di breve periodo. Ma l’attuale fase di ripresa durerà o no? «Mi auguro che prosegua. Tuttavia in questo momento percepisco soltanto che sono in corso operazioni di ricopertura. Le quotazioni erano scese tanto e si erano create posizioni "corte". Il mercato prima o poi corregge tutti gli eccessi...». Che ruolo ha giocato la speculazione? «Non decisivo. Gli stessi hedge fund , che tutti chiamano in causa, nel bene e nel male, hanno un peso limitato: non credo insomma che possano da soli spostare il mercato. Piuttosto, dobbiamo fare i conti con le irrazionalità di alcune situazioni. Per questo è difficile fare previsioni». Investire in Borsa vuol dire allora affidarsi al caso? «No, se si guarda al lungo termine e si scelgono titoli con caratteristiche di solidità e con elevati rendimenti impliciti». Può fare qualche nome? «Per quanto riguarda la Borsa italiana punterei per esempio su Eni, Telecom e titoli collegati, come Tim e Olivetti. Poi ho fiducia nella Ras e, tra i bancari, nella Popolare di Verona e Novara. Infine, non trascurerei i valori cosiddetti difensivi, come Saipem e Autostrade».

strano post, qualcuno che si interessa a dei titoli non ho seguito molto Qwest, ma questo tipo di titoli al momento (quelli affondati nelle telecom e energia post-Enron e post-Worldcom) sono la cosa più interessante Come lei sa parliamo di titoli che avendo perso l'80% o 90% dei massimi sono "tecnicamente" tabù, ma o come speculazione veloce veloce o come investimento dopo aver fatto però un poco di analisi economica sono appetibili. Qwest ha perso l'89% dai massimi, ha dei bonds che arrivano a rendere il 22% ed ha perso qualunque supporto da Wall Street Mi sembra più rischioso di Dynegy, Cablevision o America On Line, ma occorre studiare un attimo di più e sono benvenuti interventi che approfondiscono (vedi la storia di Dynegy o Americredit) Come trade veloce forse meglio su uno storno del Nazz Modificato da - gz on 8/20/2002 14:30:14

^EBiscom#^ forse è salita ieri perchè Cisco System (CSCO) ha invitato Chief Executive Silvio Scaglia a parlare al loro meeting annuale.... Noto i dati sul petrolio che indicano domanda in calo Upgrade di ^ARM Holdings#^ , positivi su ^Accor#^ , hotel Negativi su ^Pinault#^ e ^Alstom#^ Vivendi sostenuta da commenti di UBS Warburg 1252 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN-- ^EBiscom#^ (I.EBS) +3.1% at EUR24.60 after Cisco System (CSCO) invited Chief Executive Silvio Scaglia to address the opening of Cisco Global Sales Meeting on the grounds that E.Biscom is the best company of its broadband telecommunications sector. A trader says, "It's a sign of international recognition." Adds, "It's mantaining the targets that it announced when it went public (2 years ago)." A financial daily reported Sun Scaglia saying that Fastweb and its German network, which had 150,000 subscribers at the end of 1H 02, will maintain a growth rate of 15,000 clients a month through 2H 02. (FGB) 1409 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^ARM Holdings#^ (ARMHY) +9.8% at 182.5p. An analyst notes company's annual partner day last week and argues it is an extremely strong player in the semiconductor industry, with diverse end markets. "Any return of optimism benefits ARM and the 2Q results proved its business model is working as new management delivered robust data and results." (NPF) 1346 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS-- ^Pinault#^-Printemps (F.PPR) -4.2% at EUR68.95. News of Wal-Mart's (WMT) Aug sales prediction being at the low end of a 4% to 6% growth range due to lower sales in both divisions last week seen weighing. (MJK) 1338 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- Arcadia (U.ACA) bid talks are likely to progress further, says Investec Securities. Rates the retailer a strong buy. Philip Green's offer of 365p a share implies perspective P/E of 8.4X, but Investec says fundamentals offer excellent value even at 410p, which would give an exit P/E of 10X. Whilst believes bid could increase to 400p "or beyond", says Green's offers have failed to materialize in the past. Arcadia up 16% at 348.5p. (JFH) 1337 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--WM-data (S.WMD) -0.6% at SEK8.60, down more than 25% since 2Q report last week. "The market is so difficult at the moment that if you can't execute, you're going to be punished severely for it," says Anders Berg at Evli Securities. Cuts rating to sell from reduce, with target of SEK7. Says TietoEnator (Y.TTO) a relative bright spot in sector. (LCK) 1313 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Given strengthening conviction that proposal to increase the coupon to remove ^Vivendi Universal#^'s (V) guarantee will not pass tomorrow, credit default swaps in Vivendi Environnement (VE) widened out to around 260bp-310bp, says analyst. Nearly 100bp wider than they were talked about last week. Difficult to tell what price the bonds are trading at, with few bonds actually trading hands before Tue's meeting. (AJM) 1256 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein remains cautious on ^Alstom#^ (ALS) despite the current share price trading below its EUR8.50 share price target. Says stock currently trades at 9.9x EV/EBITDA, in line with the sector despite its additional financial risk and product problems. Maintains reduce recommendation. Shares +2.6% at EUR6.75. (MJK) 1247 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--OPEC cuts '02 world oil demand growth forecast by 46.7% "not that surprising," says analyst. Recovery "not here yet." However, market relatively unfazed as world demand of 76.16M bbd remains within 74M-77M bbd range expected. Shell (SC) up 0.6% at 448p, BP (BP) +1.8% at 528.5p. TotalFinaElf (TOT) down 0.7% at EUR147.9. (TRF) 1239 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein expects Vivendi Universal (V) share price to be driven by financial health in coming weeks, with sentiment and rumors around strategy also likely to increase volatility. But Vivendi still owns and operates group of well-performing, valuable assets. Open letter by Fourtou might reassure the market and spark share price rebound, but it's execution that matters. Stock +12% at EUR10.37. (MMR) 1230 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS-- ^Accor#^ (F.ACC) would boost its share of the German four-star hotel market, should it acquire stake in Germany's Dorint, says CIC Securities analyst Annick Thevenon. Would also complete its product range in Germany, where it has substantial holdings in the economy and 3-star hotels market, she says. Accor not immediately available to comment on reports of potential interest in Dorint. CIC keeps hold rating, EUR45 target. Shares +2.2% at EUR34.10. (VLV) 1221 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--European stocks off highs ahead of Wall St open. Bad news from drug heavyweight AstraZeneca cited as main turning point for equities. JP Morgan technical analyst Nick Glydon says clear head & shoulders now confirmed on FTSE 100, but lack of volume caused by summer holiday adds confusion. Sees S&P500 moving to 950 now it's above 911. Also "definitely" likes oils after breakout by oil price last week. Also don't be short Vodafone, now it's above 101. Targets 115 or maybe even 120. DJ Stoxx 50 +0.7% at 2782.0. (NPB) 1202 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--Bilfinger Berger (G.BIL) +13% at EUR22.90, Hochtief (G.HOT) +10% at EUR18.35 as construction sector still benefitting from expectations of incoming orders following heavy flooding in Germany. "Just like after Sep 11 when defense and IT security stocks were in fashion, investors are speculating on what areas of the economy will profit from this catastrophe," trader says. "And just like back then, the bubble will burst and the shares will drop back to previous levels," he says, advising selling.(CHE) Modificato da - gz on 8/20/2002 11:22:57

il commento di Doug Kass di stamattina che riassume e spiega tutto per chi fosse perplesso notare un segnale importante citato: il nome del purosangue che ha vinto una delle gare più importanti in america sabato a Saratoga è "Buy the Dips" (Compra le Correzioni) ------------------------- Doug Kass, author of The Edge, is general partner for two investment partnerships, Seabreeze Partners and Kass Partners. Until 1996, he was senior portfolio manager at Omega Advisors, a $4 billion investment partnership.-------------------------------------------- 10 Factors Fueling the Boo Hoo Rally 08/19/02 07:41 AM EDT The Boo Hoo Rally continued apace last week, fueled by the following factors that should continue to buoy the equity markets. 1. Over the past several years, the decline in equity prices and the rise in bond prices have served to give fixed income a disproportionate role in pension portfolios. This mix will likely have to be readjusted, leading to further asset-allocation changes in favor of stocks and not in favor of bonds over the coming weeks. 2. Those who will panic have probably panicked already. A $45 billion mutual outflow a month ago likely represented an extreme low in sentiment. Moreover, at the bottom, the NDX had declined by nearly 84% from its early 2000 peak -- worse than almost any market decline in history and depression-like in magnitude. As mentioned by several technicians on this site, the number of stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average above their 50-day moving averages a month ago was zero, and that number can't statistically move lower than that level! 3. The technical condition for equities has improved. With rising equity prices changing the poor momentum of the past few years, investors are beginning to feel "more comfortable" being long. I have long said, and it is human nature (and the law of physics), that lower prices beget selling, and higher prices beget buying. The latter is occurring now. 4. We call this the Boo Hoo Rally because many are still short or have relatively low invested positions and are not finding the renewed uptrend very enjoyable. A record level of odd-lot shorting implies continued disbelief -- providing continued and, eventually, latent buying. 5. The Aug. 14 certification process has come and gone, and investors are responding with collective relief. 6. Interest rates are seen to have reached or are very near their cyclical lows in the economic cycle. While the drop in second-quarter GDP growth fueled renewed concerns of an economic double dip, other, more recent signs don't indicate much more weakening in activity. For example, advertising trends, new homebuilding orders and chain-store sales seem more encouraging and inconsistent with a "George Costanza" double dip. Indeed, this morning, in a sign that the large home-renovating market is alive and well, Lowe's (LOW:NYSE) raised its sales and earnings guidance. 7. Certain areas of the equity market (like technology) that have suffered the most over the past three years have begun to show renewed strength. The market appears to be broadening out -- another healthy sign. 8. The media, incorrectly bullishly bent in the halcyon period of the late 1990s, had turned noticeably bearish over the last few months -- with short-selling NFL broadcaster Al Michaels' CNBC interview capping this extreme view and providing an interesting tell. 9. No longer are bullish money managers deified; indeed they are being shunned. Several leading magazines (SmartMoney, Business Week, etc.) have recently replaced pictures of the manager heroes of the late 1990s with that of an ursine animal (the bear). 10. Bankruptcies like WorldCom, Enron and US Airways typically occur at the bottom of economic and market cycles, not anywhere near the top! The same can be said for Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, which is the No. 1 best-selling hardcover book at Amazon.com. Thanks to The Bagman for filling in on Friday. Great job! Finally, in an interesting coincidence, the thoroughbred Buy the Dips won the fifth race at Saratoga on Saturday -- romping to a six-length win. Edited by - gz on 8/19/2002 23:58:40

".....il mese scorso l'86 per cento si attendeva una ripresa dell'economia, in agosto è solo il 39 per cento....." Questo è mooooolto importante. Il 61% dei gestori (una settimana fa) pensa che non ci sarà ripresa. Il sondaggio di Merril è il più completo in materia, prendere nota. (13 agosto 2002) ---------------- da Repubblica - Finanza ------------------------------------- Pessimismo sulla ripresa Milano. Gli investitori istituzionali perdono fiducia nella ripresa: le aspettative su crescita, profitti e prezzi si sono ridotte. Secondo un'indagine di Merrill Lynch, in luglio i gestori credevano ancora in una crescita del 10 per cento degli utili per azione. In agosto invece domina la cautela, per cui crescita, profitti e prezzi delle azioni sono previsti in aumento del 7 per cento. Il sondaggio, condotto tra il primo e l'8 agosto, ha raccolto l'opinione di 292 investitori istituzionali che gestiscono circa 706 miliardi di dollari in fondi nel mondo. "Gli investitori istituzionali stanno chiudendo le posizioni sui titoli cicli - afferma David Bowers, chief global investment strategist di Merrill Lynch e autore della ricerca - ma si spera di essere ormai vicini ai minimi per i mercati azionari". L'umore è nero: l'indice che sintetizza lo stato dei mercati passa da 15,6 di luglio a 14,9 in agosto riflettendo la scarsa fiducia negli utili delle società. Il 34 per cento dei gestori ritiene che le Borse internazionali siano sottovalutate e uno su quattro pensa che la sottovalutazione sia, almeno, del 15 per cento. Restano comunque molti quelli che credono in una ripresa dell'economia nel corso dei prossimi dodici mesi, ma la percentuale di chi crede in un forte recupero scende drasticamente dal 76 al 43 per cento. Evaporano come neve al sole i timori di un rialzo dei tassi: il 29 per cento dei gestori dice che i mercati Usa sono i peggiori, visti nella prospettiva degli utili delle società (erano il 36 per cento in giugno). Nemmeno l'Europa sfugge a questo pessimismo latente. I gestori dell'Eurozona, nelle intenzioni di eventuali acquisti, appaiono molto cauti: secondo l'indagine di Merrill Lynch, se il mercato scendesse del 10 per cento nei prossimi 3 mesi, solo il 69 per cento comprerebbe (contro il 79 per cento di luglio). Solo sul medio periodo compare qualche ottimismo: il 62 per cento dice che le borse mondiali saranno migliori tra un anno mentre un terzo del panel indica ritorni a due cifre dalle azioni entro i prossimi 12 mesi. Nell'Eurozona le azioni vengono definite dagli investitori istituzionali a buon prezzo e c'è una diffusa convinzione secondo la quale i mercati sono destinati a riprendersi nel giro di un anno. Ma i gestori si mantengono ancora liquidi per mancanza di fiducia: il mese scorso l'86 mper cento si attendeva una ripresa dell'economia, in agosto è solo il 39 per cento. Il sondaggio di Merrill Lynch rivela quindi un cambio di atteggiamento radicale in agosto: per la prima volta dal dicembre 2000 in molti (sono il 15 per cento) intendono aumentare gli investimenti sui prodotti di base (consumer staples). I titoli ciclici della old economy sono fuori moda mentre ci sono giudizi negativi sull'industria di base come non si erano mai visti dal dicembre 2000. L'attenzione sui beni di consumo è ai minimi dall'ottobre 2001 mentre ci sono note positive, per la prima volta da gennaio, per le tlc. (13 agosto 2002) Modificato da - gz on 8/19/2002 21:34:31 Modificato da - gz on 8/19/2002 21:39:36

e pensare che c'è gente che suda sui titoli di borsa quando basta manipolare una materia prima ci sono un parecchi trend di rialzo nelle materie prime .... -------------------------------------------------- Alla borsa di Londra si è guadagnato un nomignolo sospeso fra il paranoico e il goliardico: «Chocfinger». Il richiamo al «cattivo» di uno dei più famosi film di James Bond la dice lunga sulla considerazione che colleghi e rivali hanno di lui. Tuttavia, Anthony Ward non ha certo l'aspetto di un mostro: un affabile 42enne londinese, spiccata somiglianza con Winston Churchill, buone scuole, sposato, con due figli e con i consueti hobby di un inglese nato bene. Ma negli ultimi tempi si è creato l'immagine di un affarista senza scrupoli. Mr Ward controlla il 10 per cento della disponibilità mondiale di cacao. Un potere immenso. Giusto il mese scorso ha comprato ben 148 mila tonnellate di cacao, equivalenti al 5 per cento dell'intera produzione mondiale e da allora gli esperti del settore si stanno chiedendo cosa voglia fare, dove voglia arrivare. In effetti mai nessuno prima ha avuto il potere di controllare una quota così consistente della produzione mondiale di una materia prima tanto importante per le economie di interi continenti. Lui tace, anche perché nel frattempo è diventato ricchissimo. In meno di 18 mesi le quotazioni del cacao sono quasi raddoppiate passando da 1.050 euro la tonnellata a 1.950. Ma a chi lo accusa di aver manipolato i prezzi lui risponde sorridendo: «Impossibile, nessuno può fare una cosa del genere». Altre voci nella City lo vogliono in cordata con qualche misterioso partner straniero suo finanziatore: forse le assicurazioni Aig oppure la Dkr Commodity Arbitrage Fund, ma lui nega: «Sono tutti soldi miei» investiti attraverso la sua Armajaro Holdings. Ora Ward è in vacanza e aspetta tranquillo che vengano diffuse le previsioni sulla raccolta di cacao nell'Africa occidentale, dove si concentra il 60 per cento della produzione mondiale. Dopo due pessime annate di seguito, si teme un terzo cattivo risultato che sarebbe disastroso per i poveri agricoltori del cacao del Ghana e della Costa d'Avorio ma un vero colpo di fortuna per Ward, che vedrebbe salire il valore delle sue immense scorte. Diversi analisti pensano che il prezzo potrebbe arrivare addirittura a 5.250 euro. In tutte le aziende dolciarie europee l'allarme è altissimo: dalla Cadburys inglese all'italiana Ferrero, fino alle società svizzere si teme che il colpaccio di «Chocfinger» possa avere un pessimo impatto sulla produzione di tavolette e cioccolatini. Ward, comunque, non è un dilettante. Benché la sua Armajaro Holdings abbia solo quattro anni, è ben conosciuto nell'ambiente delle case di brokeraggio di materie prime. E il suo nome è noto anche agli appassionati di sport. Come il connazionale Richard Branson, anche Anthony Ward ama le macchine da corsa. E, a quanto pare, adora anche il rischio.

Oggi volevo evitare di "fare i compiti" per cui avevo saltato la doverosa rassegna delle notizie e buy/sell degli analisti visto che era tutto facile. Ma si sa che poi tornano i tempi difficili, il denaro così non dura, chi non si è preparato poi ne sconta le conseguenze dopo ecc.... per cui ecco qua prima della piscina il solito esercizio, che sembra inutile e invece se lo fai tutti i giorni fa bene Noto che prevalgono i declassamenti, le notizie negative e i sell, però su titoli che non sonocruciali. Il flusso delle notizie è senz'altro negativo oggi In particolare ^Charter#^ comunications, un titolo che senza inchieste varrebbe il triplo ne riceve uno causa solita SEC La stella è invece ^Electronic Arts#^ che riceve altri buy, thank you very much ^Astra Zeneca#^ -11% per un risultato negativo di test, c'est la vie con questi Poi ^Forest Lab#^ invece con Goldman positiva. Downgrade su titoli cartari, che indicano il ciclo economico hmm.... e infine revisione di stime sugli S&P 500, un poco più in basso, ad es da 52 a 50 o 49 dollari per il 2003 di Solomon e Lehman. Il che che li metterebbe a un P/E di circa 18-19 al momento. Nike downgrade, Navistar pure, insomma tutto quello che legato al ciclo abbastanza male --------------------------------------------- Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Downgrading from Buy to Hold, with a $16 price target. The stock has gained nearly 30% from its lows, since Illinois raised its gambling tax rates. Our fundamental thesis is unchanged, but we believe BYD is fully valued. Charter Communications (CHTR / Nasdaq) Bear Stearns This investigation could go on through the end of the year even if nothing is uncovered. In our opinion this could weigh on the stock for some time at least until the US District Attorney s office releases its findings on the investigation. We are therefore downgrading shares of CHTR to a neutral rating. We are hopeful that the issue will be resolved favorably for the company and that the stock then begins to trade on what we believe are solid fundamentals. Crane Company (CR / NYSE) Bear Stearns We are initiating coverage of Crane Co. with a Neutral rating. Crane is $1.5 billion diversified industrial manufacturer of fluid handling products, engineered products and systems for the aerospace industry, automated vending machines and plastic panel products. We believe the company can continue to readily pursue acquisitions to enhance shareholder value. But we cannot get around the weak operating environment Crane is facing. Nearly every one of its key end-markets is presently weak. In total, we estimate 80% of the sectors Crane serves are weak. Helix Technology Corp. (HELX / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Initiating coverage with an Equal-weight rating and $16 price target. As the cyclical recovery gains momentum and as chipmakers initiate capacity buys, we expect the company to benefit. International Paper Co. (IP / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Downgrading our rating to Equal-weight, with a $50 price target. We believe the company has lower upside potential than its peers, though IP's earnings recovery will also be strong in the coming upcycle. Logitech (LOGI / NYSE) SG Cowen Downgrading our rating to Buy, as we believe there is near-term earnings risk. The company is trying to phase in its largest new product cycle ever, in a usually back-end loaded quarter. Mead Westvaco (MWV / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Upgrading our rating to Overweight, with a $39 price target. We believe the market overreacted on Friday, and that the company has many levers it can tweak to increase margins and cashflow. Reliant Resources (RRI / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney We downgrade Reliant Resources to Underperform from Neutral. Our very near term concern remains refinancing risks, but fundamentally we are more concerned about Reliant Resources' exposure to declining power prices and spark spreads. We lowered the value placed on Reliant's North American generation portfolio to $375/kW, reflecting these market fundamentals, which lowers the overall corporate NAV to $2, equal to our new target. We also lower our 2003 EPS estimate to $1.50 from $1.60. back to top STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES American Home Mortgage (AHMH / Nasdaq) UBS Warburg AHMH announced that it began a hedging program against potential impairment of its mortgage servicing asset. This action sharply reduces a potential large expense for AHMH. We are therefore increasing our '02 EPS estimate to $2.20 from $2.00. This assumes a $0.10 increase in estimates for both Q3 and Q4. Our target price of $18 uses an so we reiterate our Strong Buy rating. Alcan (AL / NYSE) Prudential Securities Raising EPS estimates to $1.49 in fiscal 2003 and $2.25 for next year. We believe the company secured a great price for its 20% stake of the Alouette smelter, and the added capacity should be accretive. Reiterate Buy rating and $45 price target. Allegheny Energy (AYE / NYSE) NEWS The utility owner's corporate credit rating was lowered one level by Standard & Poor's to BBB from BBB+, S&P said in a statement. AstraZeneca PLC (AZN / NYSE) NEWS AstraZeneca Plc's Iressa cancer pill didn't help patients live longer when added to a standard chemotherapy treatment in a study, pushing shares of Europe's second-biggest drugmaker down as much as 11 percent. CompuCredit Corporation (CCRT / Nasdaq) Bank of America Montgomery Raising our EPS estimates to $0.59 in fiscal 2002 and $1.05 for next year. The company raised its guidance, to reflect benefits from recent acquisitions. Maintain Market Performer rating. Dynegy (DYN / NYSE) NEWS The energy trader completed the $1.88 billion sale of a U.S. natural-gas pipeline to Berkshire Hathaway MidAmerican Energy Holdings. Dynegy had said that a delay in the sale might force it to seek bankruptcy protection. EOTT Energy Partners L.P (EOT / NYSE) NEWS The oil pipeline and trading partnership controlled by Enron Corp. had some credit ratings, already below investment grade, cut four levels by Standard & Poor's. Electronic Arts (ERTS / Nasdaq) Weisel Partners Our checks indicate that EA's Madden 2003 and NCAA Football are selling very well and could be on track to sell 2.5mn and 1.5mn units, respectively. We believe the company is on-track to generate roughly $140mn in rev from these titles in the Sept Q. Additionally, Sims and Medal of Honor continue to sell well. In our opinion, this data provides a high degree of confidence that there is upside to our Sept Q est. Forest Laboratories (FRX / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We've reviewed the Lexapro label and have found little that was unexpected. We noted two new antivirals were cited for potential drug interactions. Two distinquishing features include: (1) Lexapro showed no statistically significant difference in the number of dropouts due to adverse events versus placebo and (2) Lexapro 10mg has equivalent efficacy to Celexa 40mg. The label notes a 1-4 week onset of action, consistent with other SSRI's. We reiterate our MO rating. i2 Technologies (ITWO / Nasdaq) Soundview Technology We see limited catalysts on the horizon, although management continues to cut costs. We believe the company will be forced to make some major corporate action to bring the stock back above $1 a share, and avoid de-listing. Lowe's Companies (LOW / NYSE) NEWS Lowe's Cos. said second-quarter profit rose a more-than-forecast 42 percent as the world's second-largest home-improvement retailer opened stores and controlled expenses. Net income increased to $467 million, or 59 cents a share, from $329.1 million, or 42 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement. Sales climbed 22 percent to $7.49 billion in the three months ended Aug. 2. Profit in the third quarter ending Nov. 1 will be 39 cents to 40 cents a share, the company said. Analysts surveyed by First Call expect 39 cents. Lam Research Corporation (LRCX / Nasdaq) Bank of America Montgomery Reducing our earnings estimates to break-even in fiscal 2003 and $0.40 for next year. Recent cap-ex cuts in Taiwan will hit the company hard. Maintain Buy rating, as the stock is trading near its floor valuation. LTX Corporation (LTXX / Nasdaq) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Trimming our estimates ahead of next week's earnings report. We now expect the company to lose $0.82 this year and $0.11 for 2003. Maintain Strong Buy rating. Meristar Hospitality Corp (MHX / NYSE) Prudential Securities Reducing EPS estimates and price target to $16 per share, after the company reduced its guidance. RevPAR was weaker than expected in the latest quarter, but in-line with MHX's peer group. Maintain Buy rating. Marvell Technology Group (MRVL / Nasdaq) Merrill Lynch Adjusting our forward estimates to, as the company is likely going to see gross margin declines in the near-term. Maintain Strong Buy rating and $28 price target. Navistar International (NAV / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We are maintaining our RL rating re: NAV. We believe longer term benefits outweigh shorter term concerns we are lowering FY02 enstimates to refelct weaker 4Q, but maintaining FY03. Our forecast for FY03 remains at $1.15-$1.35 as benefits from long-term cost initiatives are likely to provide significant benefits on top of a recovering economic environment. Navistar International (NAV / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read NAV preannounced Q4 EPS to a $0.20-$0.25 loss due, in part, to greater than anticipated weakness in medium duty trucks and retirement benefit expenses. We were forecasting $0.36 EPS, which was in line with consensus. The likelihood that Cummins will report a loss in the fourth quarter; we expect EPS of a $0.01 loss versus consensus EPS of $0.12.We are revising our EPS estimates down to -$1.45 from -$0.90 for 2002 and to $0.90 from $1.20 for 2003. We maintain our Hold rating. Nike (NKE / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Lowering our EPS estimates, because of weak industry sales. Maintain Overweight rating, as we believe NKE can still gain share and strengthen its distribution. Maintain overweight rating. Nike (NKE / NYSE) Merrill Lynch Lowering our fiscal 2003 estimate to $2.81 per share, to reflect lower domestic apparel and footwear growth. Maintain Strong Buy rating. Novellus Systems (NVLS / Nasdaq) Bank of America Montgomery Cutting EPS estimates to $0.17 in fiscal 2002 and $0.32 for next year, to reflect recent foundry cuts. Maintain Buy rating and $38 price target. Six Flags (PKS / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We are removing our price target for PKS to reflect our MP rating. We had previously carried a target of $18.50. While we estimate that year-end book value on PKS is about $16 and our DCF valuation suggests a value of about $14-16, Planar Systems (PLNR / Nasdaq) NEWS The maker of flat display screens for computers said in a statement that it expects to earn about $1 a share in the year ending Sept. 26, 2003. Eight analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected an average of $1.18. PartnerRe (PRE / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read PartnerRe pre-announced its initial loss estimate from the European floods would approximate $100M pre-tax, based on managements' market share assessment of an overall industry. We are maintaining our Strong Buy rating, given the discount valuation currently afforded PRE shares, which we feel fails to reflect PartnerRe's strong operating prospects and superior projected ROE. Moreover, the aforementioned losses will be confined to the quarter, with no impact on PRE's results post 3Q02. Scientific-Atlanta (SFA / NYSE) Lehman Brothers Raising our fiscal 2003 estimate to $0.85 per share, to reflect the company's new cost-cutting strategy. Maintain Underweight rating, as SFA continues to operate in a challenging sales environment. Scientific-Atlanta (SFA / NYSE) Soundview Technology Reducing estimates and price target to $7 per share. The high churn in digital cable subscribers is becoming a drag on set-top box orders. Maintain Underperform rating. Scientific-Atlanta (SFA / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Raising our fiscal 2003 estimate to $1.10 per share, to reflect the company's new guidance. The company's expense controls will more than offset our new expectations for softer spending by cable customers. Reiterate Strong Buy rating. Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI / Nasdaq) NEWS The unprofitable satellite-radio provider's below-investment grade credit rating was cut one level by Standard & Poor's. Texas Instruments (TXN / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read TXN reaffirmed its Q3 revenue guidance of 5% sequential growth and sees EPS of approximately $0.09 vs. original guidance of $0.10. Revs are expected to grow 6% excluding the one-time royalty benefit in Q2. We believe revenue is tracking to plan in each of the Company's operating segments. Maintain Attractive rating. Tyco Int'l. (NEW) (TYC / NYSE) NEWS The conglomerate's directors should quit to help restore investor confidence in the company, the Financial Times reported, citing one of the directors, Michael Ashcroft. Weyerhaeuser Company (WY / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read With the concerns about the asbestos exposure of various paper companies, namely MeadWestvaco (Buy), Bowater (Strong Buy) and Boise (Strong Buy), there was mention made on the Dow Jones newswire that Weyerhaeuser also had asbestos "product issues." We believe that citing WY is an exaggeration and that WY's exposure to asbestos is de minimis. We would use the weakness in WY's stock due to the asbestos concerns as a buying opportunity back to top STRATEGY CALLS / MARKET CALLS SALOMON SMITH BARNEY (Major Oils) Downwardly revising Refiners 3Q02 estimates by average of 55% with possible negative surprises for Tesoro, Sunoco, and Valero. Continue to favor XOM, BP, RD, and Suncor. We continue to maintain our cautious investment opinion for the Independent Refiners and believe that there will be a better entry point later on this year. Warburg Dillon Read (S&P 500) Is the Aftermath of the Burst Bubble. Cut estimates of S&P 500 operating EPS from $51.00 to $49.00 in 2002, from $58.50 to $54.00 in 2003. Cut 2003 normal S&P 500 EPS estimate from $60.00 to $54.00. Cyclical weakness aside, we believe there are strong reasons to believe that profit growth in the 00s will be significantly weaker than in the 1990s: Bear Stearns (Sentiment) SPX 68%, NDX 69%, 5 DAY MA 62 AND 55%. EQUITY P/C BEARISH AT .48. INDEX P/C LOW AT 1.33 Warburg Dillon Read (Lodging) We are not pushing aggressively lodging stocks at this time, but we do believe that investors should begin to build positions in those owning properties in higher barriers to entry markets and the best operators with the highest rated brands. We believe investors will have an opportunity to generate significant positive returns over the next several years. Hilton Hotels is our only Strong Buy rated stock and top pick. Our other favorite names include Host Marriott, Marriott International and Four Seasons. SALOMON SMITH BARNEY (REITs) We have revisted our long-standing assumption of flat occupancy in 2003 and are now lowering occupancies in most of our models in the first half of 2003. Hence, our 2003 growth forecasts for much of out coverage universe are coming under pressure. We are reducing estimates for the following companies: Boston Properties, Brandywine, Crescent,Mack-Cali, Equity Office, Liberty, Prentiss, and PS Business Parks. Given the significant discounts to NAV, we continue to recommend an overweight on the office sector. Goldman Sachs (Auto) We project an Aug US SAAR of 17.3MM (lt.), up 6% from Aug-01 and down 4% v. Jul-02. Strong sales come as consumers react to Big Three 0.0% APR incentive offers. GM is likely to be the big winner in August with an 11% y/o/y sales increase, leaving it with low light truck inventory. We don't expect significant production additions, however, as GM truck plants are already running at full capacity. We expect Ford sales to be up 2% and Chrysler sales up 9%. Deutsche Banc Alex Brown (Industrials) We recommend investors take an overweight position in these stocks, as the economy appears to be recovering. We believe current prices are not yet reflecting the reasonable growth shown in the consensus estimates. SALOMON SMITH BARNEY (Strategy) We see second half 2002 GDP at +3%, even with a much more favorable interest rate structure, including Fed easing. Near-term business confidence is weak, leaving consumption and Federal outlays important supports. We have cut our S&P 500 EPS estimate for 2003 to $54 from $55.25, excluding stock options grants. Including a hypothetical forecast for grants expensed against net income, the level is $50.25. GAAP EPS is $47.00. Earnings measures which track the economy will likely slow their rate of improvement, while earnings measures that included (earlier) large write-offs and bull-market luxuries, like stock options, should continue to surge. Warburg Dillon Read (Forest Products) Wood products prices were mixed last week. Lumber prices fell $3, to $294 per thousand board feet. Oriented strandboard (OSB) prices rose again, up $11 to $179 per thousand square feet (up 6.5%). Plywood prices also rose, up $5 to $270 per thousand square feet. Key lumber producers are Weyerhaeuser (Strong Buy), International Paper (Strong Buy), Georgia-Pacific (Buy), Louisiana-Pacific (Buy), Bowater (Strong Buy), Potlatch (Buy) and Boise (Strong Buy). Key panel producers are Louisiana-Pacific, Georgia-Pacific, Weyerhaeuser, International Paper, Boise and Potlatch. Modificato da - gz on 8/19/2002 19:1:54

grazie della segnalazione perchè non inserisce il simbolo "LGTO" in altro a sinistra sotto "cerca un titolo" e controlla i) se gli insider comprano ii) se il titolo ha molta gente short iii) se il suo forum su yahoo è affollato il primo punto, quello degli insider su ^Legato#^ è molto interessante guardi qui cosa viene fuori.... Modificato da - gz on 8/19/2002 17:27:3

lei che è piuttosto intuitivo per gli scenari, non trova che sia pericolo essere short con questa emergenza dell'inondazione in europa ? Per qualche motivo le borse tengono a reagire bene alle situazioni di emergenza e ai disastri (ovviamente entro certi limiti). Che sia l'idea che si è costretti a spendere di più ? Oppure la sospensione delle solite cautele e paure per dovere mobilitare temporaneamente delle energie ? O un richiamo inconscio alla fragilità della vita che sollecita l'istinto del gioco fino a se stesso ?

aprire una SGR andate a leggervi il calvario passato con Consob e compagnia per aprire l'attivita'...... ---------------------- Conosco chi è riuscito a crearne una senza essere una banca. Sono occorsi : i) alcune centinaia di milioni (lire vecchie), ii) un intero anno di tempo dedicato e iii) la conoscenza personale di qualcuno in una banca che ha fatto da sponsor Anche così poi c'è il problema che ci sono già più di 1.000 fondi comuni, Sicav e SGR in italia Ci sono circa 30 mila promotori e decine di migliaia di bancari nei borsini che li vendono. E non c'è nessuno sforzo nei mezzi di informazione, cartacei e elettronici, di informare su quali gestori negli ultimi 3 o 5 o 10 anni guadagnino e quali perdano. Ci sono invece i budget di pubblicità per i fondi di S. Paolo, Mediolanum o ING. Con la tua sicav cosa fai se non hai i promotori, il borsino e il budget di pubblicità ? In teoria dovrebbe essere tutto basato sul RENDIMENTO. In pratica dietro questi 1.000 fondi, Sicav e Sgr ci sono 2 o 3 mila gestori italiani no ? Chi sono ? Chi li conosce ? Quali sono quelli migliori (o peggiori) ? Dovrebbe essere come nello sport dove i migliori sono premiati, conosciuti, intervistati, discussi. Questo è quello che succede nella solita america ad es. dove decine di pubblicazioni e siti parlando di quali gestori sono meglio o peggio e li comparano di continuo. E volano i compensi da 10 o 20 milioni di dollari, la competizione per strapparsi i migliori, fa notizia quando un gestore cambia fondo o apre il suo fondo ecc... In Italia nada, Black Out completo. Nessuna informazione che non sia casuale e sporadica. Il sistema non ha nessun interesse che i gestori siano conosciuti, confrontati, criticati o lodati, che emergano i migliori, che vengano pagati in proporzione ai risultati, che si crei una concorrenza per averli ecc... Al sistema questo non interessa e anzi è considerato controproducente. L'unica cosa che conta per il sistema (delle banche e dell'industria dei fondi comuni) è LA VENDITA, LA RETE COMMERCIALE, LA PUBBLICITA' DEL MARCHIO, IL RAPPORTO DIRETTO E PERSONALE COL CLIENTE NEI BORSINI O PORTA A PORTA. Il Rendimento ? quello non fa differenza, Mediolanum partendo dal niente ha avuta la crescita maggiore di qualunque altra gruppo di raccolta del risparmio. E non ha avuto niente a che fare con i risultati ottentuti, con i rendimenti per i clienti. A ING o Fideuram o Mediolanum o qualunque altra società di fondi il 95% di sforzo è dedicato alla vendita e il 5% al rendimento. Lo dicono loro quando ne parle a cena e lo ammettono persino i responsabili del risparmio gestito alle tavole rotonde di "MF". E' tutto il sistema dei fondi comuni che è sbagliato dalle fondamenta (per il cliente). Ma si dirà, siamo al terzo anno consecutivo di perdite per il cliente e a differenza di 10 anni fa l'investimento in borsa consiste ora di 400 miliardi di euro (50-60% del Pil). In teoria ora qualcosa dovrebbe cambiare. In pratica le banche hanno in mano tutto, anche l'intermediazione e la raccolta del risparmio (che dovrebbero appartenere a soggetti distinti come nei paesi anglosassoni...). E sono protette dalla legislazione e da Bankitalia dalla concorrenza dei grandi fondi esteri. Come hanno notato diverse fonti i costi dei fondi, sgr e sicav sono AUMENTATI nel 2001 e 2002 cioè quando i risultati sono stati perdite del -30% o -40%. E' come l'unione sovietica, il sistema funziona perchè non ha alternative. Non resta che darsi da fare in proprio. Modificato da - gz on 8/19/2002 14:55:2

da $ 1.50 di mercoledì quando l'hai segnalata ora fa $ 2.50, grande chiamata ma la cosa impressionante è che può essere solo l'inizio basta fare clic anche solo un attimo sul forum di Yahoo in america se un titolo non ha una dimensione enorme ed è molto speculativo uno degli indicatori migliori è vedere cosa succede nel suo forum di yahoo o ragingbull perchè il pubblico è in grado di muoverlo da solo per un poco quando come adesso su Dynegy hai un post ogni minuto per quasi 24 ore di fila sai che sotto perlomeno il pubblico che compra ce l'hai non importa guardare il contenuto dei messaggi basta dare un occhiata e vedere che sono centinaia ogni ora e di domenica e non smettono anche di notte Modificato da - gz on 8/19/2002 12:1:24

una cosa che sento negli ultimi giorni è : "... ma perchè sempre queste oscillazioni anche quando non ci sono grosse notizie..." Il problema è che il movimento di oggi dipende solo in parte dalle notizie, ma molto di più dalle posizioni CUMULATE IN PRECEDENZA SUL MERCATO. Ad es la discussione qui sul forum a fianco sulle posizioni in futures degli operatori sul CME americano è su questo tema se volete Per l'Europa non ci sono sono dati quantitativi affidabili, ma ad es su CNBC c'è un nuovo corrispondente che io trovo fenomenale e che fornisce tutti i giorni un resoconto di quello che avviene in giro per i desk L'impressione da questo e altri dati è che ci sia molto "GAMMA NEGATIVO", cioè che le assicurazioni (ma anche fondi e banche) abbiano comprato tonnellate di put sul mercato in luglio. E ovviamente per ogni put che viene venduta a un istituzione i desk delle banche devono vendere dei future corrispondenti in modo da avere "delta hedging" (insomma da essere coperti dal rischio). Viceversa quando ci sono dei ora dei rimbalzi anche minimi questo hedging va eliminato ricomprando i futures (si chiama Gamma Negativo). Può essere che ce ne sia parecchio in giro -------------- da breakingviews ---------------------- Gamma minus Volatility: Stock markets are bouncing around like yo-yos. Not just dropping like a stone. Up one day a few percent, down the next day a few percent. Volatility in the past month has been about three times its normal level. Developed country stock markets are behaving like Brazil or Russia. There are two main reasons why this is happening. One is that there's just a lot of uncertainty out there. Is the world going to tip into a double-dip recession? How much can you trust company accounts? That uncertainty is the main reason for the sharp increase in volatility. But there's another. The hedging strategies used by investors to protect themselves against plunging stock markets are, in themselves, accentuating the volatility. Think of an insurance company that cannot afford another downward lurch in markets. It may buy a put option on the FTSE 100 index at, say, 4,000 from an investment bank. But the bank needs to hedge itself too. So it goes out and sells futures on the FTSE. That, in the jargon, is known as delta hedging. But this is not all. Whenever the FTSE dives, the bank has to sell even more futures to hedge itself. And, assuming lots of banks are doing the same thing, that will probably push the market down further. By contrast, whenever the FTSE rebounds, the bank has to buy more futures - and that helps push the market up. This process, in the jargon, is known as negative gamma. It magnifies the roller-coaster ride investors are having to endure. It's not much fun - unless you are a masochist. Edited by - gz on 8/19/2002 11:49:56

a) leggo che Dynegy ha scambiato a 2.20 $ nel dopo mercato a NY. Dardarg due giorni fa ha chiamato di nuovo ^Dynegy#^ a 1.50. Questo sarebbe un +45% in 2 giorni ed era un poco che non si vedevano questi colpi. b) vedo che la "storia" di Barron's di oggi è tutta sui titoli come : Dynegy, ^Calpine#^, ^Mirant#^, ^AES#^, ^Comcast#^, ^Charter Comunications#^, ^Cox Comunications#^, ^Cablevision Systems#^... Cioè sui titoli nelle telecom e energia che benchè guadagnino erano dati per spacciati nel panico della crisi di liquidità e delle inchieste post Worldcom. Da mercoledì sembrano resuscitare di colpo. E' solo un impressione che butto mentre apro un attimo un portatile oggi, ma sono dei sintomi che ci sia qualcosa di grosso in questo settore -------------------------- 14 August 18:59 Dardarg --------------------------------------------- .......chi ha lasciato parecchie penne su questo titolo credo che sia ora molto tentato. Ho comprato 400 dyn al prezzo medio circa 26 $( sono stato furbo eh); se ne prendo altre 4000 a 1.50 circa torno quasi in pari se il titolo va a 3,5/4 o giù di lì. ... Non faccio in questo caso affidamento nè all'AT nè ai fondamentali, non mi frega nulla: l'at di solito non becca i minimi e sui fondamentali c'è gente che la sa lunga che ha sempre detto che fossero solidi ( infatti s'è visto... ) e ora si dice che con la vendita della pipeline NNg non ci sarebbero più problemi di cash. le notizie .....ora c'è finta attesa per una notizia che in realtà è già nota: dyn dovrebbe certificare oggi i bilanci ma si sa già che non ce la farà perchè è stata lei stessa a preannunciarlo. Modificato da - gz on 8/17/2002 18:16:30

in effetti in un mercato ieri e oggi abbastanza tranquillo questa è una delle vicende più movimentate che ci siano in giro. Drehman che dice di comprarla è un gestore molto noto e conservatore, nel suo fondo il titolo che pesa di più è Philip Morris (13%) e nella classifica dei gestori della sua area è nel top 10% Potrebbe essere una chiamata da 100% tenendo presente il rischio di -50% minimo il grafico indica un titolo che "resuscita dai morti" perchè quando è andato sotto 1.00 era dato per spacciato solo 15 giorni fa

Pesanti declassamenti di American Eagles ^AEOS#^ (ahi) Positivi su Dell in prevalenza Un paio di giudizi negativi su Intel e IBM e poi Autodesk e specialmente Analog Devices che è un titolo chiave oggi con il suo annuncio Positivo invece su ^Check point#^ Su Redback Networks, RBAK, Goldman Sachs (molto speculativo) ricomincia a seguire Revisioni al ribasso su ^Nvidia#^ Stime al ribasso sulle utilities come Calpine, Mirant, Duke ------------------------ Nota------------------------------ Qui di seguito riproduciamo una delle rassegne in inglese più complete sulle notizie, declassamenti e annunci di utili della giornata sui titoli americani. Aggiungiamo alcune note di commento. ------------------------------------------------------ CHANGE IN RATINGS ^American Eagle#^ Outfitters (AEOS / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Downgrading our rating to Equal-weight, as the company is facing more difficult sales comps for the back-to-school season, than its peers. The company's valuation is attractive, but we believe the risk/reward is neutral. American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros Lowering our estimates and price target to reflect continually fuzzy visibility. August comps are running below plan, and margins in the most recent quarter were lighter than expected. Maintain Equal-weight rating. American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read We are lowering our 3Q EPS estimate from $0.50 to $0.44, our 4Q EPS estimate from $0.75 to $0.70 and our 2003 EPS estimate from $1.90 to $1.80. In addition, we are lowering our price target from $30 to $24. Maintain Strong Buy rating. Cummins (CUM / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read Initiating coverage with a Hold rating and $28 price target. We expect fourth quarter 2002 EPS to come in well below consensus due to weak power generation markets and the impending collapse of the heavy-duty truck engine market. Our single point estimate is a $0.01 loss for fourthquarter EPS. Cummins market position is vulnerable to Caterpillar's potentially break-through engine due out next summer. However, in the meantime non-conformance penalties levied against Caterpillar may give Cummins an advantage. Dianon Systems (DIAN / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read We are downgrading Dianon from Buy to Hold. During the last 14 trading days DIAN shares have appreciated by 18% reflecting investor's expectations that the proposed changes to the 2003 physcian fee schedule for reimbursement for pathology testing could be revised upward. While we view DIAN as the best company in the small cap diagnostic services space, and acknowledge that there is the potential for some upside to the proposed fee schedule we do believe that there are still uncertainties regarding the company's earnings potential in 2003. Navistar International (NAV / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read Initiating coverage with a Hold rating and $25 price target. The weak trend in Navistar's operating results may be approaching an inflection point. Navistar has given the UAW an ultimatum; it needs a cheaper contract with more flexible work rules or the Springfield, OH plant will be closed. If successful, the company's earning power should improve markedly; but however the negotiation ends, we think the potential for charges increases the likelihood first quarter 2003 earnings will be in the red. Redback Networks (RBAK / Nasdaq) Goldman Sachs Initiating coverage with a Market Performer rating. Redback's biggest near-term challenge is to achieve the $55 mln/qtr sales level needed to breakeven - this is critical given the company's net debt. RBAK's core business, the SMS product line, should provide steady sales with moderate growth. However, the key to RBAK growing revenue to breakeven levels is success with its new edge router. We believe that Redback has strong technology, but there is risk to RBAK's ability to take significant market share due to high barriers to success. Riverstone Networks (RSTN / Nasdaq) Goldman Sachs Initiating coverage with a Market Performer rating. Riverstone's market niche is the edge of carrier access data networks, where its competitive advantages are multi-protocol aggregation capabilities, and low price points. At $0.85, Riverstone trades well below net cash of $1.92 per share and our net cash per share trough estimate of $1.31. United Surgical Partners (USPI / Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney We are initiating coverage of United Surgical Partners with an Outperform rating and $34 price target. USP is a leading operator of surgery centers in U.S. 23 of USP's 46 centers are operated with 10 major not-for-profit hospital partners. back to top STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES Advanced Auto Parts (AAP / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Raising our EPS estimates to $2.60 for this year and $3.25 in fiscal 2003, to match the company's new guidance. Improved merchandising led the upside in the most recent quarter. Reiterate Overweight rating and $65 price target. Analog Devices (ADI / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney We are encouraged that the company's book-to-bill ratio was above 1.0, with backlog up 6%. Management believes the B2B ratio should be positive again this quarter, with turns business falling from 44% to 38%, and revenues rising modestly. We are trimming our fQ4 EPS to $0.17 from $0.18 largely due to higher operating expenses, while our 2003 estimate remains unchanged. We reiterate our Buy rating and $32 price target. Analog Devices (ADI / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Trimming estimates and price target to $50 per share, as we believe management's guidance could prove to be overly optimistic. We now expect ADI to earn $0.55 this year. The company exited the July quarter with a book/bill over 1.0 though, and ADI expects to see continued inventory build this quarter. Maintain Equal-weight rating. Analog Devices (ADI / NYSE) NEWS The maker of semiconductors said in a statement that excluding certain costs, it expects to earn 16 cents a share in the fourth quarter ending in October. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call is for profit of 18 cents. Autodesk (ADSK / Nasdaq) Credit Suisse First Boston Reducing our earnings estimates to $0.57 per share in 2003 and $0.90 for next year, to match the company's new guidance. THe cut to this year's estimate is sizable, but we see no further cuts necessary in the future. Maintain Buy rating, as the company's competitive continues to improve. We recommend buying on weakness in the $10-$11 range. Autodesk (ADSK / Nasdaq) NEWS The maker of architectural design software said it expects to earn 5 cents to 10 cents a share, excluding certain costs, in the third quarter ending Oct. 31. On that basis, which isn't in compliance with generally accepted accounting principles, the average estimate of five analysts polled by First Call is a profit of 17 cents. Aspen Technology (AZPN / Nasdaq) Goldman Sachs Our main concern for AZPN continues to be a lack of execution in managing expectations. We believe that the company has a solid product footprint for its engineering solutions, however it must get better financial leverage from sales of these products. We believe that this will continue to be an issue as the company restructures the salesforce and product line as it absorbs the Hyprotech acquisition. Our new F2003 estimates are $360M/$0.10 which is well below guidance of $380M/$0.35. Given the continued weakness in the economy the weakened balance sheet will likely cause the stock to trend lower until a path to profitability can be seen. Agilent Technologies (A / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We are taking a more cautious view on the timing of Agilent's return to profitability, and are lowering our fiscal 3Q cash EPS estimate from a loss of $0.13 to a loss of $0.15. Guidance was for a loss of $0.10-$0.20, including $0.05 from the ERP implementation disruptions. We are lowering our 4Q estimate from $0.07 to a loss of $0.02, and are lowering our fiscal 2003 estimate from $0.85 to $0.60. We continue to rate the shares a Market Outperformer. Check Point Software Tech (CHKP / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros Following a one-on-one meeting with the CFO of CHKP, we are cautious but optimistic about long-term opportunities coming in the pipeline. We would continue to be cautious on the stock because we have found only lukewarm demand and limited visibility. The CFO characterized the environment as difficult but not getting any worse and expects the quarter to be back-end loaded. A more crowded market is competing for a few deals. Citigroup (C / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read The elimination of the TAP income stream should result in higher EPS growth and higher returns for Citigroup in the future. Our 2002 and 2003 estimates ex-TAP are $2.98 and $3.42, respectively, which implies EPS growth of 15%. Maintain Strong Buy rating, but with our new $51 price target. Dell Computer Corporation (DELL / Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney Raising our 3Q revenue estimate from $8.8B to $8.9B, but our EPS remains unchanged at $0.21. No change to our CY03 revenue, but our EPS increases modestly from $1.02 to $1.04. Reiterate 1H rating, revised target $32. Reiterate Buy rating. Dell Computer Corporation (DELL / Nasdaq) NEWS The computer maker said it expects $8.9 billion in revenue in the third quarter ending in October. The average estimate of analysts polled by First Call is $8.56 billion. Quest Diagnostics (DGX / NYSE) Merrill Lynch Trimming our price target to $100 per share, to reflect current market conditions. Our recent meetings with management show that the company continues to execute well. Maintain Strong Buy rating. EchoStar Communications (DISH / Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney We have reduced our ARPU forecast for the remainder of the year and 2003 and removed the merger premium we had assigned to DISH's valuation. As a result, we are reducing our target price to $21 from $25. We maintain our Outperform rating on shares of DISH. DeVRY (DV / NYSE) Lehman Bros The company reported solid 4Q02 results in the face of extremely weak Summer term enrollmnets. As a result we have reduced our estimates for fiscal 2003 from $1.08 to $1.01 and revenue forecasts from $720 million to $688 million. Our price target is now $18 (down $2) and we reiterate our Underperform rating. The company recently released a new marketing campaign and will face easier year-over-year comps for fall. A turnaround will be driven by an improving economy and technology industry. Management continues to be optimistic while prudently operating the company. Gap (GPS / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Trimming our estimates to $0.45 per share in fiscal 2003 and $0.90 for next year, given the company's cautious comments about back-to-school trends. Maintain Overweight rating. Gap (GPS / NYSE) Merrill Lynch Reducing our EPS estimates to $0.43 in fiscal 2003 and $0.75 for next year, as operating expenses remain above plan. Maintain our near-term Strong Buy rating, as we believe a rebound in Fall sales is developing. Gap (GPS / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Taking down our full-year estimate to $0.30 per share, as sales have started out slow in the current quarter. Maintain Hold rating and $15 price target. Gap (GPS / NYSE) NEWS The apparel retailer said in a statement that same-store sales in the second quarter ended Aug. 3 fell 7 percent from a year earlier. Gillette Company (G / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We now have a price target of $35 (versus $42 previously), implying potential upside of 10%-11% from current levels. This $35 target is based on a 27X 2003 EPS multiple and reflects our belief that the stock can sustain current valuation given the expected acceleration in earnings. Maintain Market Outperformer. Intel Corporation (INTC / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Cutting our estimates and price target to $27 per share, based on lower MPU unit growth forecasts. August sales are trending flat compared with July, and we expect little growth for the remainder of the year. We now expect the company to earn $0.55 per share in 2002 and $0.80 for next year. Maintain Equal-weight rating. Kensey Nash Corporation (KNSY / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read In fiscal 2003, updated guidance calls for a greater than 30% advance in total revenue and EPS. We are increasing our September quarter EPS forecast to $0.12 but reducing our full year estimate to $0.55, reflecting a slightly tempered revenue outlook and higher clinical trial spending on TriActiv. Against the backdrop of volatile conditions in the financial markets and erroneous information related to potential AngioSeal litigation, the stock had been pressured since early June. After regaining lost ground in the last two weeks, KNSY sold-off 6% in yesterday's trading, providing investors, in our opinion, with a buying opportunity. Given the expected robust top- and bottom-line trajectory, we continue to rate these shares Strong Buy for risk-tolerant investors. Kohl's Corporation (KSS / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney Given yesterday's stellar results, combined with our positive outlook for Kohl's in the back half of 2002, we have raised our 2002 and 2003 EPS estimates. We reiterate our Outperform rating and $80 price target. Kohl's Corporation (KSS / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We are increasing our fiscal 2002 and 2003 estimates by $0.05 to $1.87 and $2.25 per share respectively. We continue to recommend purchase of the stock. Liberty Financial Co's (L / NYSE) Goldman Sachs However, with more than 47% of our NAV represented by publicly held investments, we believe the quarterly performance of L's major private holdings is secondary to the underlying asset value of its publicly traded portfolio and the need for additional visibility surrounding its European cable strategy. L is currently trading at a 39% discount to our estimated net asset value of $13.27, representing the upper end of its historical discount range. However, we continue to rate the stock a Market Outperformer. Liberty Financial Co's (L / NYSE) Lehman Bros The company reported aa strong 2Q02 performance and reiterated 2002 guidance while leaving out incremental information on European cable acquisition strategy. We think the company should remain positive. Discovery posted a solid quarter and indicated a positive trend in ads. Revenue came in at $426 million, ahead of our $410 million estimate. Starz! results were reported in the 10Q and revenue was $237 million and came in higher than our estimate of $233 million. L is trading at a 42.4% discount to our estimate. MedImmune (MEDI / Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney MedImmune has revised its financial guidance to include this in-licensing agreement. The company has increased its FY02 R&D guidance by $12 million, resulting in a $0.03 reduction in its EPS guidance. We have revised our estimates for Q302 EPS to a loss of $0.15 per share and FY02 EPS of $0.39. Maintain Outperform rating. MedImmune (MEDI / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read Although extremely early, we believe that this recently discovered viral pathogen represents an interesting research program that is synergetic with MEDI's expertise in pediatric infectious disease, antibodies, and vaccines. We are adjusting our 3Q EPS from $(0.08) to $(0.12), and our full year 2002 EPS from $0.70 to $0.66. Maintain Strong Buy rating. MedImmune (MEDI / Nasdaq) NEWS The drugmaker said in a statement that it expects a third-quarter net loss of 16 cents to 17 cents a share, wider than its previous loss forecast of 13 cents to 14 cents, because of higher research and development costs. Nike (NKE / NYSE) NEWS The athletic-shoe retailer said Foot Locker, its biggest customer, ``significantly'' cut holiday orders from September to November to focus on less-expensive footwear. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Cutting our EPS estimates to $0.80 in fiscal 2003 and $1.05 for next year, as visbility remains limited. Second quarter results were mainly in-line, but the decline in GPU units was much worse than we expected. Maintain Equal-weight rating and $28 price target. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA / Nasdaq) NEWS The maker of computer chips expects profit of 6 cents to 12 cents a share in the current quarter. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by First Call is 16 cents. Pep Boys - MM&J (PBY / NYSE) Goldman Sachs Company expressed comfort with 2H consensus estimates. We are raising our FY02 estimate by the $0.04 2Q upside to $0.93 vs. $0.69, lifting our 3Q estimate by 1c to $0.26, and lowering our 4Q estimate to match consensus at $0.11. Also raising our FY03 estimate by $0.06 to $1.06. Maintain Market Performer rating. PACCAR (PCAR / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read Initiating coverage with a Hold rating and $42 price target. We think PACCAR is well positioned to weather the impending boom/bust caused by tightening EPA engine emission requirements. It has a very flexible cost structure, strong balance sheet, and is growing by gaining sharein Europe. However, we fear the market is underestimating the impact of the EPA rules on 2003 demand. We expect order data will reveal the lack of demand in the coming months, leading to lower consensus estimates and increasing negative sentiment. Photronics (PLAB / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read PLAB reported its 3Q02 results, in line with the company's pre-release. Excluding a tax benefit which contributed $0.03 per share, EPS were $0.01, compared to consensus of $0.00. We are reducing our outlook for PLAB to reflect weak demand for photomasks and a poor pricing environment. No change to our Buy rating. Lowering price target from $21 to $17. Children's Place (PLCE / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros PLCE reported its 2Q02 EPS of ($0.38) which was $0.01 below our lowered estimates but in-line with guidance. Weak sales in July drove gross margin deterioration. Management is cautiously optimistic about back-to-school and holiday shopping as new merchandising and pricing strategies are implemented. Performance of the "2for" promotion is better than expected. We are reducing our 3Q02 estimates from $0.70 to $0.55 and raising our 4Q estimates from $0.70 to $0.77. Our 2H estimate remains below management guidance. TECO Energy (TE / NYSE) Lehman Bros We are maintaining our Underweight rating and $19 price target. Following another review of our assumptions for forward price curves for the company's plants that are not contracted in 2003, we are reducing our estimate from $2.10 to $1.92. We are now using the current 12-month forward market price versus our original estimate. We think the company will be challenged in the next couple of years given the sizeable merchant portfolio it possesses. We do think the above average yield will help support shares. Toys R Us (TOY / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We think TOY is likely to make our earnings estimate of a loss of ($0.07) vs. a loss of ($0.15), which is above consensus of a loss of ($0.11), when it reports 2Q02 EPS this upcoming Monday, though we believe same-store sales trends remain soft. Key issues to watch include same-store sales trends, with a focus on remodels, and tight expense control. Longer-term considerations include market share visibility and the tougher financial backdrop. Maintain Market Outperformer. Urban Outfitters (URBN / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read We are raising our price target from $28 to $32. We maintain our Buy rating on shares of URBN. We remain convinced of the strong fundamental outlook for this company. We anticipate that Urban Outfitters will grow earnings at a rate approximately three times that of the market and generate a return on equity nearly twice that of the market. Vivendi Universal (V / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. The company should be able to meet its funding gap through asset sales and bank refinancing. Maintain Overweight rating, but with our new $15 price target. back to top STRATEGY CALLS / MARKET CALLS SALOMON SMITH BARNEY (Strategy) A thorough review of the Recommended List has caused us to implement three new guidelines for managing the list. We are also refreshing the list by making changes in three sectors. In Information Technology we are removing IBM and adding DELL. In Industrials we are swapping out of Continental into Northwest Airlines. We are adding Air Products Corporation and Pactiv in Materials and removing Alcoa. As our cyclical focus remains intact, we continue to have many stocks from the Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Morgan Stanley Co. (Aluminum) Cutting EPS estimates for AL, AA and CENX, as macroeconomic weakness will likely continue to weigh on aluminum prices. We believe the long-term fundamentals remain intact, and that Alcoa and Alcan are particularly attractive for purchase. Credit Suisse First Boston (Homebuilding) Demand remains solid, despite fears about waning consumer spending. We believe these stocks offer an attractive risk/reward at current levels. Lean inventory levels and record-low mortgage rates continue to bring in new buyers. We believe the cheapest stocks are BZH, CTX, PHM and SPF. Lehman Bros (Chemicals) Oil companies have always been aggressive in growing their chemical units but we think near-future expansion in oil exploration and production will limit chemical CapEx. This should bring the cycle peak along quicker and allow it to last longer for the chemical companies. Chemical businesses for oil companies do not provide much room for hedging and we therefore think the chemicals business will be left for the chemical companies. Goldman Sachs (Home Retail) We expect both HD and LOW to hit or exceed our earnings estimates when these companies report 2Q02 EPS next week. We are wary of more guarded same-store sales guidance from each company given a broad-based hardlines retail slowdown in July, though we think this concern is widely held by investors. SALOMON SMITH BARNEY (Independent Power) We have established our 2004 earnings expectations for 3 power wholesalers: Duke Energy, Mirant and Calpine. In all three cases, we see a meaningful decline in 2004 versus 2003. The declines are larger for "pure-play" MIR and CPN. The decline is a more modest 9% for DUK, a wholesale-focused utility, which combines the protected cash flows of a utility, with the commodity-sensitivity of a large fleet of merchant generation plants. Increasingly, we see a more cloudy earnings picture for 2003. We also expect 2004 estimates, as they are published, to show declines from 2003 levels for most wholesalers, whether "pure-play" or "utility". Modificato da - gz on 8/16/2002 15:46:10

E' chiaro poi che questi ultimi hanno i dati del comportamento del pubblico e sanno quindi dove c'è il tesoro da cacciare, mentre noi poveri mortali non potremmo mai avere questa indicazione -------------------------------------- gianlini se lei come dice muove 14 mini-S&P e non quanti future di altro genere vuole dire che lei ha abbastanza soldi da pagarsi un bridge o altro software professionale come TS e una serie di report specialistici (che tra l'altro costano da 40 o 60 dollari al mese, in alcuni casi massimo 200) In questo caso LEI E' NELLE STESSE IDENTICHE CONDIZIONI DELLE CENTINAIA DI HEDGE FUND e CTA che operano da Zurigo, New York o Londra Anzi per molti aspetti il fatto di non avere grosse masse di contratti (tipo 100 S&P o 100 FIB30) da muovere l'avvantaggia nell'esecuzione, e così l'avvantaggia non avere clienti che la chiamano per sapere ogni mese: ".. come stiamo andando ? perchè abbiamo perso su quegli euro ?... gli altri a cui ho allocato dei soldi stanno facendo meglio di lei... quando mi fa vedere dei risultati migliori... lo sa che i clienti sono molto nervosi vedendo il suo ultimo equity run? Ha visto le classifiche degli hedge fund ? C'è gente che guadagna e gente che perde. Nell'80% dei casi è gente che è entrata nel business da meno di 10 anni. Rispetto ai desk della golman sachs o morgan stanley ci sono dei vantaggi di cui questi godono, ma alla fine anche lì ci sono sono dozzine di traders giovani che vengono licenziati quando sbagliano e che devono darsi una mossa per proprio conto Non c'è niente di più ridicolo del lamentarsi di essere "noi poveri mortali ..." sfortunati e trattati ingiustamente. Se il gioco della borsa è truccato lo lasci perdere, ci sono tante altre attività. Se invece lo vuole fare legga le ^interviste ai top traders che ho messo sul sito#h:marketwizard.asp^ così vede come funziona e si prenda TS e gli strumenti adatti che esistono e sono a disposizione di tutti Modificato da - gz on 8/16/2002 11:5:19 Modificato da - gz on 8/16/2002 11:54:34

Delle azioni degli analisti di oggi noto in positivo stamattina: ^Lufthansa#^ che sembra non essere toccata dalla bancarotta della US Airways, ^Sage#^ il titolo high tech inglese di cui ho parlato di recente In negativo non vedo invece niente di importante stamattina (spiace che i pezzi di ieri incluso questa rassegna siano andati persi, si parlava di ^Nobel Biocare#^ in particolare ieri -------------------------------------------------------- 347 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--FTSE 100 +3.3% at 4310.2. Market stays firmly in positive territory after sunny start to US trading and US July industrial production number comes in slightly ahead of expectations at +0.2%. "I don't think this number (industrial production) is going to change sentiment in any significant way," says Gerrard's Simon Rubinsohn. Thinks there's still large degree of uncertainty out there and markets were due for a technical rebound. (TRF) 1342 GMT (Dow Jones) DUBLIN--Waterford Wedgwood (WATFZ) -3.5% at EUR0.55 after Federated Department Stores, Waterford's major U.S. customer, reduced same-store sales forecasts for 2H to between -1% to -3%. This, coupled with recent gloomy U.S. economic data, suggests the bias of risk for Waterford's forecasts is on the downside, says Merrion Stockbrokers: "This lessens our confidence in the apparent value opportunity offered in the shares." (QAF) 1336 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Getronics#^ CEO and CFO let off steam at Thu's press conference, writes Dow Jones' The Skeptic. They blamed the press, analysts, hedge funds, and investors - everyone except themselves - for the drop in the company's share price. Not exactly soothing stuff. (EMB) 1326 GMT (Dow Jones) BUDAPEST--Erste maintains Synergon (R.SGN) underperform rating after 2Q results on doubts about its outlook and a sluggish IT market. Doubts company's double-digit '02 sales growth forecast and target for a pft this year. Sees '02 loss per share at HUF24.9 and an EPS of HUF15.5 for '03. Adds that expansion abroad would be a positive. Synergon -2.3% at HUF565. (MAF) 1323 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Sage#^ Group (U.SGE) +9.6% to 125.5p following Intuit's (INTU) 4Q results which reaffirm Sage's comments on entry level products, says CSFB. Says Intuit's success with its Quickbooks software is consistent with Sage's arguments that entry-level is better than mid-market in the US. Recommends picking up the stock at these levels. (NPF) 1321 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT-- ^Lufthansa#^ (G.LHA) +1.7% at EUR12.30, unruffled by UAL Corp (UAL) United Airlines statement late Wed it might file for bankruptcy. According to WestLB's Gert Zonnefeld, European market very different that US market, with US airlines suffering declining volumes and yields, while European peers have managed to increase yields in recent months. Rates Lufthansa as a buy. (RZG) 1319 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Sarasin analysts see Bachem (Z.BCM) posting an 11% increase in 1H net sales to CHF72.8M on an 13.9% increase in EBIT to CHF24.7M when it reports Aug 23. Pretax profit seen -3.3% at CHF22.5M. Aside from that, eyes on financial income since recent turbulence on markets is likely to have had negative influence on company's equity holdings. Bachem doesn't publish an after-tax, net income figure at 1H. Shares +2.4% at CHF79.85. (CCS) 1313 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT-- Altana (G.ALT) technicals look bearish. Despite entrance into DAX, more negative potential expected after stock bounces off 200 day moving average at EUR56. Downward trend from high in Apr is further intact, in contrast to short-term upwards trend from Jul low. "Another return to year low at EUR41.55 or the supports from '00, '01 around EUR40 must be viewed as likely," says MM Warburg technical analyst. Stock +2.4% at EUR52.20.(CHE) 1308 GMT (Dow Jones) COPENHAGEN--Lundbeck (K.LUN) +7.5% at DKK180 on FDA approval of Lexapro, known in Europe as Cipralex. Resistance seen around DKK185. Trader says he expects Lundbeck to hold onto gains after recent losses pushed shares down to year lows. (FRS) 1305 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Lehman Brothers cuts Eniro target to SEK85 to reflect lower organic growth but reiterates overweight. Lehman finds Eniro's 32% drop in share price Wed hard to justify given its performance, solidity of business. Flat organic growth in Sweden is pressuring Eniro to complete integration of bought assets to deliver future top line growth. Share +6.7% at SEK44.80. (CHP) 1222 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Vivendi Universal (V) is to sell Houghton Mifflin because it is one of the few assets on which it can make a capital gain, analysts say. Disposal could be seen as first step toward renewed focus on Europe, but "it is probably more correct to see it as one of the group's few large assets liable to interest numerous potential buyers and on which a capital gain could be made," CIC Securities notes. ING expects disposal price of over EUR2.1B. CIC sees price at EUR2.5B. Vivendi bought publisher for $1.7B excluding debt in 01. Shares -19% at EUR9.68. (VLV) 1221 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein upgrades ^Eidos#^ (EIDSY) to buy from hold with a 169p target. Says FY 03 is a pivotal year with new generation consoles and line-up of 'pre-sold' titles providing near-term upside - with year shaped by 5 key title release, with Tomb Raider: Angel of Darkness providing greatest upside potential. Trades +8.1% at 104p. (NPF) Modificato da - gz on 8/16/2002 9:33:31

questo grafico spiega tutto il tasso di interesse diviso per la variazione dei prezzi all'ingrosso, insomma i prezzi che le aziende possono far pagare QUINDI IL TASSO DI INTERESSE REALE è troppo elevato Di norma in recessione è vicino allo zero, ma qui è tra i più alti degli ultimi 30 anni per questo c'è sempre più gente che dice che è meglio rischiare un poco di inflazione e creare liquidità Modificato da - gz on 8/14/2002 20:0:53

non so chi abbia seguito anche distrattamente i post che ho messo aggiornando un poco la situazione iraq-usa ecco come i mercati mostrano di seguirla: nonostante l'economia debole e i tassi di interesse che colano a picco ecco cosa fa il petrolio greggio : breakout al rialzo oggi

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley e PIMCO hanno chiesto con forza che la FED pompasse liquidità e riducesse i tassi. La maggioranza a parole dice che non serve a niente o comunque sono già bassi, ma poi all'atto prativo vedendo che la FED non ha tagliato il mercato ha ceduto. L'argomento "populista" di chi dice di pompare ancora liquidità (e non solo ridurre i tassi) sembra errato perchè ora quasi tutti dicono che è colpa della liquidità eccessiva del 1998-200 (per via dell'asia, poi della russsia e LTCM e il baco dell'anno 2000) se c'è stata la "Bolla". E la "Bolla" e il suo scoppio stanno mandando in crisi anche l'economia. Tuttavvia non ne sono così sicuro perchè se la situazione è molto grave, come dice qua McCulley di Pimco di "Debt-Deflation Meltdown" cioè Crollo da Deflazione del Debito allora tutti i mezzi sono buoni. E una discussione teorica, ma fino a un certo punto : hai avuto le più grandi bancarotte del dopoguerra e poi anche adesso hai Ericsson, Vivendi, Lucent, Nortel, Dynegy, AOL e molte altre strangolate dai debiti PIMCO (che è il maggiore fondo del mondo al momento e da 10 anni il numero uno per il reddito fisso) chiede di inflazionare l'economia, di stampare moneta e girarla alle banche per far sì che prestino : : "... Further cuts in the Fed funds rate would be easy, but not wise. In contrast, opening up the banking system conduit for the Fed's lender-of-last-resort function will not be easy, but wise...." --------------------------------------------------Fed Focus Paul McCulley / August 2002 Time to Roto Rooter the Lender-of-Last-Resort Function "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." - John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory Over the last week, I've been asked approximately 289 times whether the Fed is going to cut rates at Tuesday's FOMC meeting. My answer, approximately the same number of times, has been "I don't know, but I think not." And in response to that response, I have been called a wimp approximately 114 times, a two-armed economist approximately 75 times, a jackass twice, and things unprintable approximately 98 times. People just don't seem to like equivocation in the matter of handicapping Fed rate cuts: will they or won't they, that is the question. And the answer, questioners implicitly or explicitly declare, should be a simple yea or nay. Not complaining really, as I've been doing this for twenty years, and know the drill. And, I have to admit, it is flattering to have others think I might actually know something that I don't know. It is frustrating, however, to be repeatedly asked the wrong question. The right question, about which I do know something is: are Fed funds cuts, by themselves, sufficient to break the ongoing debt-deflation meltdown in the corporate sector? My unambiguous answer: No. Some Definitions First Before "building out" my argument, as PIMCO's Account Managers are fond of saying, let me first define the dynamics of a "debt-deflation meltdown." It is not about a fall in the CPI or the PPI, even though those popular price indexes might fall. A debt-deflation meltdown is about a self-feeding fall in the market value of assets relative to the par value of debt assumed to acquire them, which provokes lenders to withdraw wholesale the presumption that debtors are going concerns, demanding that their maturing debts be paid, rather than "rolled-over." To wit, debt deflation is about lenders demanding that borrowers liquidate themselves. In a falling market for assets, however, that's damned difficult for individual borrowers, and impossible for the community of borrowers. But the very fact that it is impossible for the community to liquidate all its debts by selling all its assets (you gotta have somebody to sell to!) reinforces the incentive for individual lenders to demand that individual borrowers liquidate themselves as quickly as possible, so as to monetize their assets before prices deflate even more. This individually rational, but collectively irrational behavior is, of course, the stuff of bank runs - nasty self-feeding things, as George Bailey found out. In the language of finance, the "run" dynamic is called systemic risk, and leads us, as a civilized capitalistic society, to have structural prophylactic arrangements: deposit insurance for bank deposits, and a Fed discount window for banks to "re-discount" (not sell!) their loan and security portfolios for hard cold cash. Indeed, the banking system itself is a prophylactic against debt deflation in the capital markets, a place where solid companies unable to "roll over" their maturing commercial paper and debentures turn for loans to "take out" maturing paper. In fact, contingent commitments by the banking system to lend to companies are an integral part of most companies' ability to actually place debt paper in the capital (non-bank) markets. Capital market buyers of company debt demand that issuers have a bank "back-up line" for rolling over maturing debt, as an insurance policy against forced liquidation in the event that the capital markets are caught in a bout of infectious risk aversion. Most elementally, the capital markets and the bank lending market are complements, not substitutes. They need each other: banks need capital markets to determine, in real time, non-bank intermediaries' appetite for risk, and at what price, and capital markets need banks to act as a conduit for the Fed's lender-of-last-resort function. And when the capital markets are caught in a paroxysm of remorse after an inflationary bubble in asset prices, the "circuit breaker" to prevent a debt-deflation meltdown must be a banking system willing to serve as a contingent lender of last resort. And if the banking system cannot, or will not, play that role, as was the case in the Great Depression, then a debt-deflation meltdown will beget a more generalized deflation in goods and services prices - to wit, the PPI and the CPI - as economic activity grinds to a halt. Thus, when thinking about deflationary risk, as all right-thinking risk takers should be doing at the moment, it is hugely important to think in terms of unaborted deflation in asset prices. By undermining asset-based leverage structures, such deflation is the proximate cause of the rising risk of goods and service price deflation. Accordingly, policy authorities cannot wait for deflation in goods and services prices to become proactive in fighting deflation. The time to act is when asset price deflation is calling into systemic question the "money goodness" of private sector debt arrangements. The Austrians Are Wrong It is not in the nature of bankers to want to act counter-cyclically, of course, as bankers put on their trousers just like risk takers in the capital markets, acting in pro-cyclical fashion, as is the wont of the human nature. Nothing is so exhilarating to the appetite for risk as making money, and nothing is so debilitating to the appetite for risk as losing money. Human nature is as human nature does, as Alan Greenspan regularly incants, most recently in his observation about greed: what the late 1990s was about, he philosophized, was not an increase in the human greed drive, but the efficiency of avenues for exercising that drive (in a different context, Bill Clinton ran with the same argument!). Indeed, capitalism is a marvelous economic system founded on the basic human urge to get rich: Adam Smith's invisible hand in action, carrying out Joseph Schumpeter's process of creative destruction! Nothing wrong with that, but something very right: technology-driven innovation and increases in standards of living. Capitalism's problem, and it most certainly has one, is that it is inherently given to boom-bust pathologies, because it is founded on the same human urge that begets gambling. Except, in the case of capitalism, "we the people" do collectively win, whereas in the case of casino gambling, only the casino owners win on net. Capitalism is way cool, fer sure fer sure. But like, not totally. The dominant political question of civilized society is whether to try to temper capitalism's boom-bust pathologies. For me, to answer the question: yes, civilized societies, particularly those founded on democracy, not only have the right, but the duty to harness capitalism, even while celebrating it.1 Members of the Austrian school of economics vehemently disagree, arguing that capitalism's boom-bust pathologies, even if they exist, are magnified, not tempered, by the visible hand of government. In particular, Austrians hold central banking in high contempt, arguing that fiat credit creation (printing-press money!) is the dominant source of capitalism's boom-bust proclivities. And contrary to the presumption of the legions of Austrians who write me every month (to accuse me of macroeconomic immorality!), I actually have some sympathy with the notion that central bank policy can be a source of boom-bust pathology itself. But I call that bad central bank policy, not an indictment of the legitimacy of central banking. Good central bank policy involves tempering the pro-cyclicality of capitalists' human urges by acting counter-cyclicality: watering down the punch before the partiers start swinging from the chandeliers, and offering Alka Seltzer before the hung-over partiers start gagging themselves with spoons. Thus, I agree with current-day Austrians that the origin of the current risk of a debt-deflation meltdown was not just irrationally exuberant capitalists, but the enabling hand of the New Age Economy's chief bartender, Alan Greenspan. He could have tempered irrational exuberance, and should have tempered irrational exuberance. And he didn't. Where I disagree with modern-day Austrians is in their righteous advocacy that the time has finally come for Greenspan to repent his sins and make drunken capitalists drink ipecac, rather than serving them yet more monetary policy accommodation. The Austrians are bedfellows with Treasury Secretary Mellon, who said to President Hoover in 1931 that the time had come to: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more normal life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people." Mellon's advice, and modern-day Austrians' amen chorusing is a perfect prescription for a debt-deflation meltdown. And, my friends, two wrongs do not make a right. Yes, it may have been wrong for Greenspan to have enabled the bubble, but it would be even more wrong for him to embrace debt-deflation in repentance. Greenspan Ain't No Austrian (Or Libertarian) On The Downside Greenspan has no intention of listening to the whining and pining of Austrians for a purge. He is self-admittedly a macroeconomic hermaphrodite when it comes to bubbles: hands off when they are inflating, and hands on when they are deflating. As noted, I don't share this philosophy with Greenspan, and said so unambiguously and forcefully while the bubble was bubbling, in the very first edition of Fed Focus in September 1999,2 and in testimony before Congress in March 2000.3 I didn't, however, pound the table for Greenspan to hike the Fed funds rate to abort the equity market bubble (and its associated bubbles in business investment and corporate leverage), as many critics of Greenspan did at the time, and continue to argue today. Rather, I advocated that the Fed hike margin requirements for the (initial) purchase of stocks on debt. And my rationale was simple: the equity bubble was a New Economy affair, in which stocks were valued as lottery tickets, while Old Economy stocks - and the Old Economy itself - were not bubbling, but actually languishing in the deflationary wake of the 1997-98 collapse in emerging market countries. Thus, I believed then, and believe now, that hikes in the Fed funds rate were the wrong tool to arrest irrational exuberance in New Economy stocks, carrying unnecessary "collateral damage" for the Old Economy. Or, as I testified before Congress: "I know of no economic model that postulates a high interest elasticity of demand for lotteries! Virtually every economic model incorporates, however, a high interest elasticity of demand for the goods and services of the Old Economy." Thus, using the interest rate tool exclusively to thwart wealth creation in New Economy stocks carries grave risks for the Old Economy. It makes no sense to try to get the attention of gluttons by starving anorexics. It's bad macroeconomic policy, and it is also morally wrong." Mr. Greenspan didn't agree, of course, and pedantically (as in, "won't you please shut up") rejected calls for a hike in margin requirements. But at least I can take some solace that I was in good company in making the call: Yale Professor Robert Shiller testified along side me, literally days before his Irrational Exuberance hit the book stores; he kindly gave me an "author's copy" from his briefcase. Bob has gone on to great fame, of course, and rightly so: it was a great book, not because he called the equity market top (he didn't; he'd been bearish since 1996!), but because he articulated, and documented, a "behavioral" approach to understanding bubbles. John Maynard Keynes' "animal sprits" matter, and matter hugely. On the upside then, of course, and on the downside now. Fed Rate Cuts Work When/Where Uncle Sam Works Which brings us back to the matter of whether the Fed should or will cut the Fed funds rate again at Tuesday's FOMC meeting. True to his word during the bubble, Mr. Greenspan became very hands-on once it blew up (after maintaining he had nothing to do with blowing it up, of course!): he slashed the Fed funds rate from 6 1/2% to the current 1 3/4% within a year. Bravo for him, and the U.S. economy. Easy monetary policy is indeed "working" where it is manifestly supposed to work: the residential real estate market, a (the last remaining?) pillar of the Old Economy. Property prices are rising, and credit is both abundant and cheap for buying property. Animal spirits are indeed alive and well in that sector, and Mr. Greenspan rightfully takes both credit for and pride in the outcome. Too much, I think, though that is not really meant as a criticism. Housing finance in America is actually a quasi-governmental function, not a "pure" capitalist function. Fed easing works very well to promote housing, because housing leverage in America is funded by financial intermediaries that fund themselves on the good name of Uncle Sam -- otherwise known as "we the people." I'm talking about Aunt Fannie Mae and Uncle Freddie Mac, of course, who've done a marvelous job of implementing their federally-chartered mandate to provide a steady supply of funding to the housing sector: the agencies get the privilege of "implicit" backing from Uncle Sam, which affords them access to capital market credit at tight spreads to LIBOR (negative out to five years!), with the quid pro quo responsibility of channeling those funds into property loans. They take their responsibility very seriously and execute it faithfully, and well. It's a sweet deal for them, a sweet deal for American households, and a sweet deal for capital market investors. It's a too-big-to-fail arrangement, which "we the people" demand from our government. We also pay for the arrangement, of course, in that "we the people" are on the hook as taxpayers, if the agencies ever get into trouble, just like we are on the hook for deposit insurance. It's a deal with ourselves, the outcome of the democratic process. Yes, it is fraught with moral hazard, but then, government-supported financial intermediation is always fraught with moral hazard: the free rider problem, in which the upside of risk-taking accrues to the individual, but (most) of the downside accrues to the community of individuals. The existence of moral hazard is not, however, a sufficient case for rejecting implicit or explicit government backing for financial enterprise. "We the people" retain the right to enter into risk-sharing arrangements, despite the rantings of "pure" capitalists about the evils of moral hazard. We have done so with both deposit insurance and housing finance in this country, and I submit that an overwhelming majority of Americans ("we the people" again!) applaud the results. Bottom Line Further cuts in the Fed funds rate would/will certainly stimulate housing, as housing financing runs through a too-big-to-fail conduit. Further cuts in the Fed funds rate would not/will not, however, materially abort the risk of a debt-deflation meltdown in a corporate sector suffering from Post Bubble Disorder.4 Cutting that risk would/will require that the Fed roto rooter the conduit through which its lender-of-last- resort function is supposed to flow: bank liquidity lending, and most importantly, banks' commitment to liquidity lending. But how can the Fed get banks to re-engage in underwriting corporate default risk when they don't want to, you ask? The answer, it seems to me, is quite straightforward: just tell them to do it! But will they listen, you ask? Yes, they would, I submit, particularly if Mr. Greenspan were to declare that he is also instructing his bank examiners to act counter-cyclically, not pro-cyclically, in evaluating capital and credit-reserve policies. As an additional incentive for banks to unclog their lending pipes, Mr. Greenspan should publicly call for Congressional investigators to call off their find-a-crook dogs. The time for bank regulators to get tough is when times are good, not when times are bad. They didn't, of course, during the bubble years, but that is not a rational justification for getting tough now. If counter-cyclical is good for Fed funds policy, then counter-cyclical is good for bank regulatory policy, too. Interestingly, famed economist Henry Kaufman applied this logic just this week5 in calling for a cut in margin requirements for stocks, after having been a fellow traveler with me and Bob Shiller in advocating a hike in margin requirements during the bubble years. Henry surprised me on this score, even though his logic was perfectly reasonable: regulatory policy should be counter- cyclical and since margin requirements are a regulatory tool, a cut certainly wouldn't hurt to break infectious risk aversion (though unlike the case of a hike, it would be less likely to "work," for proverbial "you can lead a horse to water, but…" reasons). What Henry should have advocated, if I may be so presumptuous, is a counter-cyclical easing in the implementation of bank regulatory policies. Renewed bank appetite for corporate liquidity lending, outright and on a contingent basis, is the necessary condition for truncating debt-deflation risk, not cuts in the Fed funds rate. Not that I'm necessarily against further cuts in the Fed funds rate. (I've often been accused of never meeting a Fed funds cut that I didn't like, and there is some truth to that.) My point is that if all the Fed does is cut the Fed funds rate, the risk of a debt-deflation melt down will remain the dominant risk in the macroeconomic outlook. Restarting the rate-cutting engine, alone, would be the start of a journey to zero Fed funds - not in real terms, but nominal terms. Hello, Sir Greenspan-san! Indeed, since Fed funds cuts "work" through the government-supported housing finance sector, the dominant risk of a Fed funds-only policy of "accommodation" is an unrelenting deflationary bust in the corporate assets and an accelerating inflationary boom in residential property prices. The Austrians are right that fighting busted bubbles with new bubbles is a lousy way to run a railroad. They are wrong, however, in arguing that busted bubbles should be allowed to bust in Mellonesque fashion. The right approach is to directly contain the deflationary fallout of the busted bubble, without inflating one somewhere else. And the conventional Fed tool of changes in the Fed funds rate ain't the right tool, even when applied counter-cyclically. It's time for the Fed to act unconventionally, and break the conventional pro-cyclical pattern of bank lending and bank regulatory policy. Further cuts in the Fed funds rate would be easy, but not wise. In contrast, opening up the banking system conduit for the Fed's lender-of-last-resort function will not be easy, but wise. Yes, I remain a Principled Populist, who believes in the power of "we the people" to protect ourselves from our capitalist selves. Modificato da - gz on 8/14/2002 12:8:44

il commento dopo vado di fretta il mercato si sta muovendo notare la chiamata positiva di Morgan sul mercato ---------------------------------------------------- CHANGE IN RATINGS BUCA (BUCA / Nasdaq) Piper Jaffray Downgrading our rating to Market Perform, with a $10 price target. Also reducing EPS estimates, as traffic continues to be weak during off-peak times. Cooper Industries (CBE / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Initiating coverage with a Buy rating and $42 price target. We believe the share price has caught up with management's recently reduced earnings expectations. ECI Telecom (ECIL / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros Downgrading our rating to Equal-weight, as we now believe it will take longer for the company to reach profitability. Emerson (EMR / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Initiating coverage with a Market Perform rating and $50 price target. We believe the shares are fully valued, given that business will likely remain soft in 2003. EMR remains well-positioned for long-term growth. General Electric Company (GE / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Initiating coverage with a Strong Buy rating and $45 price target. The company's growth story remains intact, and we believe the long-term fundamentals are compelling at these levels. GE is a "must own" at only a 7% premium to the market. Graco Incorporated (GGG / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Initiating coverage with a Hold rating and $27 price target. Gemstar-TV Guide Int'l (GMST / Nasdaq) Merrill Lynch Downgrading from Strong Buy to Buy, as the company's continuing legal problems will no doubt delay the rollout of IPG. Also reducing EBITDA estimates to $375 million in 2002 and $350 for next year. W.W. Grainger (GWW / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Initiating coverage with a Market Perform rating and $48 price target. Sales remain sluggish, but we believe the company can post above-average organic growth when business recovers. IDEX Corporation (IEX / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Downgrading our rating from Buy to Hold. Immunomedics (IMMU / Nasdaq) Bear Stearns We are downgrading IMMU from Buy to Attractive based on our belief that the Company is unlikely to have substantial newsflow on LymphoCide until the ASCO meeting in 2003 and that their partner Amgen is unlikely to file for US approval of LymphoCide in fiscal 2003. We believe that the majority of investors will continue to focus on the clinical development of LymphoCide as the major catalyst for the stock into 1Q03. ITT Industries (ITT / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Downgrading our rating from Buy to Hold, with a $65 price target. Mediacom Communications (MCCC / Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney MCCC is trading at 8.8x '03 EBITDA, in-line w/ the group. We are lowering our rating from Buy to Neutral & target to $4, based on weak digital sub growth, revised DCF assumptions and relative valuation. Mediacom Communications (MCCC / Nasdaq) Piper Jaffray Lowering our price target to $7 per share, to reflect the company's lower digital cable subscriber additions. Maintain Outperform rating, as we believe the stock is trading at an attractive valuation. OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. We are intiating coverage with an Attractive rating. We expect data for Tarceva in Phase III lung cancer trials to be the main driver of the stock in the next 12 months. We believe FDA approval of AZN's Iressa would be a catalyst for OSIP, giving investors more confidence in Tarceva's probability of success. Six Flags (PKS / NYSE) Bear Stearns Based on the company's revised full year EBITDA guidance and taking an even more conservative view we are cutting our 2002 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $393.5 million from $431.2 million. We are also setting the bar significantly lower for 2003 cutting our estimate to $412.2 million from $466.2 million, implying growth of 4.7% over our 2002 revised estimate. While we think management will stick to the free cash flow-focused game-plan we nevertheless see little long term growth in the company's core business and therefore believe the stock warrants more of a trading strategy on the seasonality of the shares, rather than a buy-and-hold approach. Presently we do not foresee any major catalysts prior to the end of the season and therefore believe our new Neutral rating is warranted. Six Flags (PKS / NYSE) Goldman Sachs Six Flags missed earnings for 2Q02, we are lowering our rating to Market Perform. Six Flags (PKS / NYSE) Prudential Securities Downgrading from Buy to Hold, with an $11 price target. We believe the company's weakness was limited to three certain parks. Our new price target reflects the company's reduced EBITDA outlook. Six Flags (PKS / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney We are downgrading the shares of Six Flags to a 3H from a 2H and lowering our target to $10 from $17 to reflect the disappointing 2Q and full year outlook, sustained inconsistent park level performance, greater economic sensitivity than was previously thought and lower free cash flow. Six Flags (PKS / NYSE) Lehman Bros Downgrading our rating to Equal-weight, with a $9 price target. The company warned about second quarter earnings, as summer park attendance was disappointing. Also reducing forward estimates. Six Flags (PKS / NYSE) NEWS The amusement-park owner said it will not achieve performance goals for the year. Rockwell Int'l Corp. (ROK / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Initiating coverage with a Buy rating and $22 price target. The company has shifted its focus to value-added industrial automation equipment, and we believe ROK is poised to benefit from a cyclical recovery. Roper Industries (ROP / NYSE) JP Morgan Chase & Co. Initiating coverage with a Buy rating and $37 price target. The company's acquisition strategy has moved the company into faster growing markets. Roper Industries (ROP / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Initiating coverage with a Buy rating and $40 price target. Tularik (TLRK / Nasdaq) Bank of America Montgomery Downgrading our rating from Buy to Market Perform, ahead of the company's FDA meeting. We believe the odds for the company being able to move to Phase III trials is 60%, and that this success is already priced into the stock. UAL Corporation (UAL / NYSE) UBS Warburg We have downgraded UAL to a sell. US Airways Group (U / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Downgrading our rating from Hold to Sell, following the company's bankruptcy filing. We expect the company to continue operating a reduced schedule, but expect the equity to be worthless, following reorganization. back to top STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES Andrx Corporation (ADRX / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read Andrx announced last night that an internal audit revealed that an employee altered accounting records pertaining to accounts receivable balances relating to both its pharmaceutical and distribution operations. Accounts may have been overstated by as much as $15 million from January 1, 1999, to June 30, 2002. In our view, the further negative implication to this development is the potential for an SEC investigation. Applied Materials (AMAT / Nasdaq) Bank of America Montgomery We believe the Street is becoming overly bearish about the company's outlook. No equipment company has reported a sharp falloff in July business. Reiterate our estimates and Buy rating. Amgen (AMGN / Nasdaq) Goldman Sachs The launch of Aranesp is on track. We maintain our sales forecasts and EPS estimates ($1.34 in 2002 and $1.66 in 2003). We continue to recommend purchase for long-term investors with $55 price target. AMR Corporation (AMR / NYSE) NEWS AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, the world's biggest airline, plans to eliminate about 7,000 jobs, or 5.6 percent of the workforce, by March and trim its fleet following record losses since the Sept. 11 attacks. The company expects to save $1.1 billion from operations by grounding 9 percent of its fleet. The changes come on top of already- announced job cuts equivalent to 20,000 positions. AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (ANN / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We reiterate our Hold on shares of ANN. We are maintaining our estimates for the company. We are revising our target price to $30 from $33. Arden Realty (ARI / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We are lowering our estimates and Rating to Market Perform, due to fundamentals. Reflecting a weaker forward outlook, as regards portfolio and market fundamentals, we are reducing the 2002 and 2003 Funds from Operations (FFO) to $2.69 (was $2.93) and $2.70 (was $3.14). Cutter & Buck (CBUK / Nasdaq) NEWS The maker of golf clothing and other sportswear said it will restate two years of financial results because some sales were misreported. Chief Financial Officer Stephen Lowber resigned Friday, the company said. Documentum (DCTM / Nasdaq) Weisel Partners Comfortable with '02 est; Decreasing '03 est in light of slow recovery; Solid risk/reward, in our view. Dell Computer Corporation (DELL / Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney We expect Dell to report 2Q results in line with or slightly above pre-announced results of $8.3B in revenue and $0.19 in EPS this Thursday after the close. Our 2Q estimates are in line with consensus. More importantly, we expect 3Q guidance to exceed current consensus of $8.56B and $0.20 by $100-200M and $0.01, respectively, driven by continued share gains from HP and seasonal acceleration in back-to-school, European and US fed gov't demand. Reiterate Buy rating. Dell Computer Corporation (DELL / Nasdaq) Soundview Technology We expect the company to meet our July quarter estimates, and could raise its forward guidance, based on recent field checks. Reiterate Outperform rating and $30 price target. Dell Computer Corporation (DELL / Nasdaq) Bank of America Montgomery We expect the company to report in-line second quarter results on Thursday. Continued share gains are offsetting weak overall demand. Maintain Market Performer rating, though we'd become more constructive around $20 per share. Dow Jones & Co. (DJ / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. We cut our 2002 EPS, our new 3QE is $0.00 vs. $0.07-0.09 guidance. We maintain our Overweight rating. Estee Lauder Co. (EL / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We reiterate our Strong Buy rating and $45 price target and continue to see EL as the most attractive risk-reward in our coverage universe. We believe any cut to consensus EPS should prove short-lived by the December quarter earnings report. EMC Corporation (EMC / NYSE) Goldman Sachs EMC unveiled its new CLARiiON CX600 and its mid-range storage strategy. We believe this brings enterprise functionality to the mid-range with an attractive price performance, a feat other vendors have found difficult. The next-generation CLARiiON and the mid-range are two important elements to the EMC story and execution on both are critical for EPS growth, in our view. EOG Resources (EOG / NYSE) Lehman Bros Reducing our price target to $45 per share, to reflect the company's muted production forecast. Maintain Overweight rating, because of attractive relative valuation. Embraer-Empresa Brasileir (ERJ / NYSE) Goldman Sachs ERJ's direct and indirect exposure to US Air both in terms of backlog and near-term deliveries is limited. However, some of the concerns and risks that this event highlights are likely to negatively affect aerospace stocks (including ERJ). This negative news notwithstanding, we continue to believe that ERJ will be the airframe manufacturer that will first see an inflection in its delivery cycle, which together with attractive valuation, leads us to maintain our MO rating on ERJ shares. Factory 2-U Stores (FTUS / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read We reiterate our Hold rating on shares of FTUS, consistent with the numerous downward EPS revisions that we have made in the past two weeks. We are maintaining our estimates for the company. We are lowering our price target to $4 from $9, based on lack of visibility and uncertainty about the long-term prospects of the company. General Dynamics (GD / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. We cut 2002-03E EPS, to reflect reduced Gulfstream demand. Our channel checks indicate pricing for new/used down 10-20% in the last 12-18 months, with used jets available for sale doubling. We trimmed our delivery and margin forecasts. We have cut our PT from $110 to $100. IVAX Pharmaceuticals (IVAX / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We continue to believe that IVAX is well-positioned with the second largest pipeline in the generic drug industry, with the potential for other "Zoloft-like" surprises hopefully on the horizon. Kohl's Corporation (KSS / NYSE) JP Morgan Chase & Co. The company will likely come in ahead of the consensus second quarter estimates. Above-plan sales are giving the company sizable expense leverage. Reiterate long-term Buy rating. Lincoln National Corp. (LNC / NYSE) Prudential Securities Cutting our full-year estimate to $3.07 per share, after the 8-K filing helped us devise a model to quantify the company's earnings exposure to the equity markets. Maintain Hold rating, but with our new $39 price target. May Department Stores (MAY / NYSE) Prudential Securities Trimming EPS estimates to $2.52 in fiscal 2002 and $2.80 for next year, to reflect softer second half sales trends. We now expect comp sales growth to only be slightly positive. Maintain Buy rating, as new private brands and a national marketing program should give overall sales a boost. McAfee.com Corporation (MCAF / Nasdaq) NEWS Network Associates said it's increasing its offer for the rest of the computer-security software company to 0.675 of a common share and $8 in cash for each McAfee.com share, valuing McAfee.com at $15.43 a share, based on closing prices yesterday, according to a statement distributed by PR Newswire. Minnesota Mining & Mfg. (MMM / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Asbestos trends appear favorable as the number of individual claimants declines. 3M estimates that total restructuring savings could reach $500 mn, implying about $100 mn in savings in 2003. 3M notes that pension funding and other cash impacts could affect cash flow in 2H02. Morgan Stanley (MWD / NYSE) JP Morgan Chase & Co. Lowering our earnings estimates to $3.25 per share in fiscal 2002 and $3.70 for next year, to reflect the challenging market environment. Maintain Buy rating and $64 price target. NeoPharm (NEOL / Nasdaq) NEWS The drug developer said in a statement distributed by PR Newswire that it had a second-quarter net loss of 55 cents a share. It was forecast to lose 44 cents, the average estimate of five analysts polled by First Call. OSI Systems (OSIS / Nasdaq) NEWS The maker of airport x-ray and weapon-screening systems said in a statement distributed by Business Wire that profit was 21 cents to 22 cents a share in the fourth-quarter ended June 30, better than the 18-cent average estimate from three analysts polled by First Call. PG&E Corporation (PCG / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney PG&E is facing challenges: NEG's severe liquidity issues and Pacific Gas's forthcoming bankruptcy confirmation hearings in November that should decide on the company's future reorganization plan. We have reduced our EPS growth estimate to 2%, and our price target to $12, or 6 times EPS to reflect PCG's poor EPS visibility and high risks PCG shares. Maintain Neutral rating. PG&E Corporation (PCG / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney PG&E is facing challenges: NEG's severe liquidity issues and Pacific Gas's forthcoming bankruptcy confirmation hearings in November that should decide on the company's future reorganization plan. We have reduced our EPS growth estimate to 2%, and our price target to $12, or 6 times EPS to reflect PCG's poor EPS visibility and high risks PCG shares. Maintain Neutral rating. Sprint PCS Group (PCS / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. We think that PCS has done a good job launching its new CDMA 1X data services, called Vision. Its pricing plans are easy to understand and very competitive, in our view. Ample device selecion and nationwide rollout are encouraging. Data revs are less than 3% of the total PCS now, but should grow to some 9% by 2005E. Execution will be curcial. Professional Detailing (PDII / Nasdaq) NEWS The sales and marketing company said in a statement distributed by PR Newswire that it had a second-quarter net loss of 66 cents a share. It was expected to lose 18 cents, the average estimate of six analysts polled by Thompson First Call. Pacific Sunwear of CA (PSUN / Nasdaq) Bank of America Montgomery Raising EPS estimates to $1.13 in fiscal 2002 and $1.39 for next year, after second quarter results came in at the high-end of the company's guidance. Reiterate Buy rating. Pacific Sunwear of CA (PSUN / Nasdaq) SG Cowen Raising our estimates to $1.17 per share in 2002 and $1.40 for next year, to reflect the company's higher reported margins in the second quarter. Reiterate Buy rating. Providian Financial Corp (PVN / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. We are cutting our 2003 EPS to $1.12. Our previous forecast reflected a "best case" scenario. The 2Q02 results suggests $0.66 operating EPS by year-end. Charles Schwab Corp. (SCH / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read SCH reported July DARTs are 156,100, $4.4 bn of net new money. The 375 person reduction in Austin, is about 2% of the 19,100 workforce at the end of Q2, and will bring total headcount to 18,725 - 7,575 (28%) lower than the peak reached in Q4 '00. The initiative will save $26 mn in costs next year, and with its adoption midway through Q3, will probably result in $8-$10 mn in savings this year. With measured staff cuts and some aggressive pruning of professional services and marketing - currently running at about $400 mn annually - these savings should be attainable. Charles Schwab Corp. (SCH / NYSE) JP Morgan Chase & Co. Reducing our EPS estimates to $0.32 in fiscal 2002 and $0.41 for next year, to reflect weaker equity returns and lower trading volumes. Our new estimates should represent a floor level for the company. Maintain Buy rating. Teradyne (TER / NYSE) Soundview Technology Adjusting our price target to $20 per share, to better reflect our year-end expectations. Layoffs and plants closings should help margins in the long-term. Maintain Outperform rating. Target Corporation (TGT / NYSE) JP Morgan Chase & Co. We expect the company to report strong second quarter results, and believe the potential for upside exists. Reiterate long-term Buy rating. Too (TOO / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We anticipate results in line with our above-consensus estimate. We reiterate our Buy rating on shares of TOO. We believe TOO's market niche, the "tween" and teen sector, is more resistant to consumer slowdowns and less vulnerable to the fashion fickleness. Our calendar 2003 EPS estimate of $1.85. This results in our 12-month target price of $34 per share. UST (UST / NYSE) NEWS The maker of Copenhagen and Skoal smokeless tobacco had ratings on about $540 million in notes raised one level by Standard & Poor's to A from A-, S&P said. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT / NYSE) NEWS Wal-Mart Stores, the world's largest retailer, said second-quarter profit rose 26 percent as the discounter opened more warehouse- size stores and sales climbed. Net income increased to $2.04 billion, or 46 cents a share, from $1.62 billion, or 36 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement. Sales rose 13 percent to $59.7 billion in the quarter ended July 31. Weight Watchers (WTW / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We are bumping our price target to $51 (from $49) and raising our 2002 EPS estimate to $1.30 - reflecting for the time being management's decision to guide based on "reported" EPS. Our 2003 EPS estimate goes to $1.65 (from $1.55). Weight Watchers (WTW / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Raising estimates and price target to $52 per share, to match the company's new guidance. We now expect the company to earn $1.28 this year and $1.60 in fiscal 2003. Reiterate Buy rating. Weight Watchers (WTW / NYSE) Goldman Sachs Hefty Attendance Drives 10% Boost to 2002/3 EPS, Weight Watchers reported Q2 EPS of $0.38, nominally in-line with our $0.38 estimate, but excluding a negative $0.07 mark to market of the company's Euro-denominated bonds at quarter end, EPS again substantially beat our estimate at $0.45. Weight Watchers (WTW / NYSE) NEWS The weight-loss counseling company said it expects to earn $1.28 to $1.30 a share this year. It was expected to earn $1.24, the average estimate of five analysts polled by First Call. back to top STRATEGY CALLS / MARKET CALLS Morgan Stanley Co. (REIT) AIT said it is acquiring 11 new properties in the Boston area. We raised 2003 FFOPS. Our one major concern is that we believe that AIV's balance sheet is once again stretched. VNO's 2Q02 FFOPS of $0.95 reported below our estimates. Our concerns for VNO are: Tenant credit issues, vacated KMT space at Green Acres, languishing cold storage business and potential future writedowns due to Primestone. Merrill Lynch (Biotech) Biotech stocks are up nearly 40% over the last month, but we believe investors will continue to find the group's growth potential very attractive. Our top picks are AMGN, GILD, IDPH, and MEDI. Goldman Sachs (Software Sector) Business in the September quarter will be back-end loaded, typical of a September quarter where business is seasonally slow during July and August. Oracle's August quarter results may be viewed as a proxy for the rest of the software sector, with results out in mid September. 2002 estimates may have been lowered enough, but a clearer read on December quarter IT spending/budget flush is needed. We believe it is likely that the anemic economic growth expected for 2003 will require estimate reductions for the broader software sector. Longer-term growth rates for technology companies in general likely need to be revised downward, given the protracted slowdown in IT spending. SG Cowen (Defense) Despite their recent slide, we believe defense stocks offer an attractive secular growth story. Weapons spending is on a long, profitable upswing. Our top picks are NOC and LLL. Warburg Dillon Read (Retail ) Discounters continue to outperform the more apparel sensitive department stores in week one in absolute terms. Initial back-to-school read is promising, with both Wal-Mart and J.C. Penney noting that back-to-school merchandise was among the leading categories at their stores. We believe that the relatively low level of clearance merchandise in the stores will continue to dampen sales results. Pharmacy and food were among the leading categories at the discount stores. SALOMON SMITH BARNEY (Food) Dry Midwest weather could lower the yields for corn, wheat and soybeans, thus lowering supplies and thus potentially increasing raw material costs for food manufacturers. For protein companies it could significantly increase feed costs and encourage farmers to bring animals to market faster, thus exasperating the glut of protein in the market as shipments to Russia are still not back to normal. Current prices and USDA forecast prices are still significantly below their ten year highs reached during the last significant drought period of 1996. Hedging and the ability to pass on some price increases should mitigate some of the pressure on margins if prices continue to rise. Lehman Bros (Natural Gas) Maintain our belief that commodity prices could head towards $2 per MBtu in the near-term, as a major inventory overhand remains. Maintain our full-year price target of $3.05 and Neutral sector weighting. Morgan Stanley Co. (Personal Care Products) Raising our price targets across the board, to reflect higher earnings forecasts and lower interest rates. Maintain our in-line industry view, with KMB and CL being our top picks. Credit Suisse First Boston (Semiconductors) Reducing our revenue forecast through 2003, as pricing remains aggressive in the light of diminishing end-market demand. Our top picks remain stock with broad product exposure. We favor TXN, LLTC and MXIM. Bear Stearns (Sentiment) SPX 58%, NDX 43F%, 5 DAY MA 48 AND 40%. EQUITY P/C UP TO .73, INDEX P/C DOWN TO A BEARISH .80. Warburg Dillon Read (PC's and PDA's) US weekly PC demand data through July shows stable retail sales. Overall PDA demand trends were mixed, improving marginally in the US but weakening in Europe. IBM's overall commercial performance was strong with positive unit growth and share gains. IBM notebook shipments were healthy, benefitting from the introduction of new product features. Inventories: Some progress has been made in reducing overall retail PC channel inventory, but levels still remain high as we have seen aggressive promotions by HP to clear out channel inventory. Goldman Sachs (Lodging) Union workers in Hawaii will vote on whether or not to strike at a number of Waikiki hotels. We continue to believe that strike fears in both Chicago and Hawaii could weigh on HLT shares as investors worry about a potential walkout at three of its eight largest and most profitable properties. We think the most significant impact would be for HLT which owns the Hilton Hawaiian Village as HOT merely manages the Sheraton hotels in the area. Merrill Lynch (Banks ) Upgrading our ratings on BAC, LEH, NEU, CBH, CBSS, USB and UPC, reflecting our stance that interest rates will stay low for the remainder of the year. Increased caution by individual investors should allow regional banks to sustain better growth in low-cost funding, at the expense of retail asset managers. Morgan Stanley Co. (Strategy) We believe the rally in the stock market can carry further and last longer than most investors think. At the same time though, we are cutting our global GDP growth estimates. We would focus on U.S. stocks with an above-market yield, especially in the pharma, energy and utilities sectors. Warburg Dillon Read (Metals) We maintain our Hold ratings on both Engelhard and OM Group. Although some metals are increasing in price, the overall levels arestill low. Industrial production and in particularly auto production still has not shown much strength, and we are particularly concerned about potential production softness in Europe. Lehman Bros (Chip Equipment) We remain cautious on the group, as we believe 2003 consensus estimates remain cautious. Valuations also remain high, compared to other cyclical recoveries. We anticipate volatile near-term trading. Warburg Dillon Read (Machinery) We remain with Buy ratings on AGCO, CNH Global and Deere, reflecting our expectation that strong farm commodity prices will cause investors to bid up the shares. Risk statement: It remains a possibility that more favorable weather conditions for corn and soybean crop development emerge in the next few weeks, which could put downward pressure on agricultural commodity prices and the agricultural equipment stocks.

non si può stare più rilassati ? approfittando del clima di vacanza stavo guardando il ^conteggio della Delta di Welles Wilder#www.deltasociety.com^ applicata agli S&P. Qualcuno ha mai provato ? Il ciclo più breve della Delta è quello che si ripete ogni 4 giorni calendariali e i punti di inversione in questo ciclo dovrebbero essere 11, ma non sono esperto di questo metodo e non sono socio della Delta, l'ho rifatto guardando il libro oggi Comunque ad es per oggi, se interpreto correttamente, potremmo avere già esaurito i punti del conteggio e non dovremmo avere alcuna inversione fino a domani. Se porta via 894 pure però dopo non ha più inversioni al rialzo. (in sostanza il conteggio si ripete sempre uguale ogni 4 giorni, ma saltando i due giorni del weekend per cui la difficoltà è ripartire con il conteggio al lunedì. Occorre guardare il libro per i dettagli) Ad ogni modo vediamo come funziona alla fine della giornata, è più interessante che lamentarsi di questo e quello Modificato da - gz on 8/13/2002 16:10:12 Modificato da - gz on 8/13/2002 17:14:3

Ho letto di recente questa intervista di fine 1999 con Welles Wilder, uno degli inventori dell'analisi tecnica (creato l'RSI, ADX, Parabolic e altro) ormai in pensione dopo aver creato il sistema "Delta" Piuttosto radicale nella sua visione del mercato e finora con ragione (pur con un anno e mezzo di margine di errore) -------------------------------------------------------- Interview with Welles Wilder NAME: Welles Wilder AGE: 63 EDUCATION: Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering CURRENT POSITION: Director of the Delta Society FAVORITE BOOK: The Bible How did you get into the futures business? After a ten year career in mechanical engineering, real estate and land development, I sold my interest in over a thousand apartments and various other real estate projects and began to pursue other areas of interest. I read a book titled Silver Profits in the Seventies, by Jerome Smith. Since Real Estate is a highly leveraged situation, I looked for a way to buy silver in a highly leveraged situation; this led me to the commodity futures markets. "I made a lot of money in silver but lost most of it in learning to trade other commodities. This led to about five years of reading, and researching everything I could get my hands on relating to futures trading using mathematical models. In 1978 I published the results of these studies in New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. My life has not been the same since." What do you think about Y2K and the chances of disaster? "At first I thought it was just a bump in the road causing a lot of hype. However, because it presented such enormous possibilities, I began to study it in depth. (Some of my friends call me 'Bulldog' because when I latch onto a concept, I don't let it go until I have exhausted virtually all the potential it contains). "In mid 1996, not much had been published on the subject (of Y2K), so the main area for research was the Internet, which came along just in time. I always enjoy research, because it involves sifting through opinions and latching onto the parts that can be proved or, in many cases, the items that cannot be disproved. The more I studied, the more non-disprovable information I gathered, and the more concerned I became. "I believe most of your readers are most interested in the financial repercussions of Y2K, so I will concentrate on that arena: "The greatest financial party of the century is almost over. Banks and investors have become drunk with their huge profits and have devised more and ingenious ways to monetarize debt and then leverage it by means of derivatives. "The fractional reserve banking system now has, on average, $1.32 to dispense to depositors for each $100 in deposits. The stock market is now more 'out of value' than it was in 1929. Bankers see no place for gold in the monetary system; noone remembers or even considers deflation. "Y2K will be the catalyst that brings this house of cards crashing down. It will happen this year in 1999. It started in Asia, and the dominoes are falling. Russia has defaulted. South America, Japan, Mexico, China are all having big problems. Savvy investors are using this last market up-move to get out. "I believe that by mid summer to late summer the perception of the implications of Y2K will start bank runs throughout the world and in the United States. If the U.S. stock market has not already started to plummet, this will bring it about. I believe it will make 1929 look like a walk in the park. I believe 1999 will be the beginning of sorrows." Where are the best financial opportunities now? "In light of the above, there are basically two avenues. One is to buy put options on the stock market indexes. The other is to buy gold and silver call options. I prefer the latter because they are cheaper, and I believe they will provide more return on investment. Also, when the bank runs start and the government imposes restrictions on withdrawals, what will the average guy write a check (on) in order to (acquire goods) -- it will be on the only things that have always had intrinsic value, gold and silver. "It would only take a small fraction of these 'average guys' to run the price of gold and silver to unheard of levels. Are the bankers still going to think of gold and silver as a barbaric relic and continue to sell their gold? No. They will suddenly realize they have pushed the envelope too far and that the confidence in the reserve system has finally been broken. It will be a new ball game with new rules: 'He who has the gold makes the rules.' The bankers will be first in line at the gold window to try to protect their own wealth. I believe this will happen in the late summer or fall of 1999. "I recommend buying the December 1999 390 gold call options; currently they are under $200 apiece. If gold goes as high as it has been in the past, each call option will be worth $40,000. Regarding silver, I recommend buying the December 1999 silver call options at a strike price of $8. These are currently available for around $400 each. (call prices as of late January). Are you still actively trading? "Yes, but from a hands-off vantage point. I have a person in my office who is instructed to trade my account in strict accordance with the Delta Member's System. Neither he nor I are permitted to deviate from the system. This is the best system that I know. " Who do you think has good ideas now, specifically regarding technical analysis? "I must admit that in recent years I have not kept up with all the new stuff that has come down the pike. I think Tom DeMark leads the pack in coming up with original ideas. If you will allow me to include myself in this category, I have spent the last two years in researching a way to automatically denote a trend change. Explain What the Delta Society Does? "In 1983 I founded the Delta Society International as a vehicle to distribute information on futures market turning points to its members. A man named Jim Sloman made an amazing discovery. He showed me that there is a perfect order in all freely traded markets. Even though the order is perfect, the accuracy of the projected turning points is not perfect -- if it were I would be wealthier than Bill Gates, and no one would have ever heard of the Delta Society -- however I have researched the historical occurrence of each Delta Turning Point, and have defined the standard deviation and the 100 percent range for each point. "I have now been able to provide Delta Members with a mechanical way of utilizing this information. I consider that to be my best work and final achievement in the arena of technical analysis. Are you ever surprised at the following your ideas have created? "Frankly, I haven't thought a lot about it, but the answer would be 'Yes.' However, when I look back over the last 25 years, I must admit that I could never have chosen any career that has been as challenging and interesting, as rewarding, and half as much fun as my third and last (this) career. I feel very fortunate indeed." Edited by - gz on 8/13/2002 12:54:1

Morgan Stanley su Pirelli Real Estate e DRKW positivo su ^Serono#^ --------------------------------------------------------- 1053 GMT (Dow Jones)MILAN--Morgan Stanley starts Pirelli Real Estate (I.PRE) at overweight with a EUR29 target, says company has "a novel business model that we think is well tailored to extracting high returns on capital from real estate". Adds, Italian property market "is currently one of the most attractive" in Europe. Stock +0.4% at EUR23.6. (LZP) 219 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein likes Serono's (SRA) recent drug deal with Genentech (DNA). "This is (the) first instance of Serono in-licensing an advanced product and we welcome the move," bank says. Adds move will leverage company's infrastructure in Europe and could be complimentary to one of company's own phase II drugs. Still, bank keeps hold rating. "While this deal is strategically good, it's unlikely to impact earnings until '05. Shares +6.6% at CHF790. (CCS) 0953 GMT (Dow Jones) VIENNA--OMV's (R.OMV) 1H earnings come in slightly above the consensus estimates. While earnings trend was still working against OMV, Alfred Reisenberger, analyst at Bank Austria, is convinced that the worst is most probably over. "However there is still uncertainty ahead and therefore we will keep the recommendation at hold, even if the stock is undervalued compared to its peers," he says. Shares +0.6% at EUR87.15. (KOM) 0943 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Aurel Leven likes Steria's (F.STR) 1H revenue data that was better than expected and encourages it to raise FY 02 revenue target to EUR1.03B from EUR998M. Keeps buy. Steria near day's high +5.7% at EUR12.30. (DGP) 0942 GMT (Dow Jones) BERLIN--RTL Group's (L.RTL) buy of a 47.3% stake in German news station n-tv is good for both companies, says DZ Bank's Isabel Geigenberger. Gives RTL a foothold in the important news programming market in Germany. The deal will also help n-tv with synergies andgives it a strong partner, she adds. RTL in Brussels -1.7% to EUR29.60. (CHR) 0940 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Nomura says UBS (Z.UBS) has a very solid set of numbers, perhaps appearing better at first glance than they actually are. A disappointing aspect is, apart from softer revenues, the fact that net new money flows in private client units collapsed to CHF4.9B from 1Q's CHF10B. However, market share in US investment banking up to 3.7% from 3.4% in '01. Nomura keeps buy as UBS shows revenue resilience and cost flexibility. Shares +2.9% at CHF67.20. (CHP) 0937 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--There doesn't appear to be anything sinister behind Matalan (U.MAN) Finance Director Ian Smith's departure, announced Tue, says Numis. His replacement Phil Dutton - from Asda (WMT) - suggests CEO Paul Mason, himself formerly at Asda, is "slowly surrounding himself with his own people". Numis remain sellers of stock as feel nervous of conditions at value end of market. Shares -0.4% to 236p. (JFH) 0917 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Merrill Lynch downgrades '03 EPS estimate 18% to 15.4p on sluggish recovery outlook on view that cyclical recovery in underlying markets may take longer than thought. Sees no appreciable recovery in 2H '02, implying 10% downgrade to earnings forecast to 13.7p. However, says shares already below 150p NAV, suggesting little further downside. Bodycote shares up 1.2% at 123.5p. Rated intermediate-term buy, long-term neutral. (HET) 0917 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Hedge funds trying to squeeze as much as possible out of Vivendi Environnement (VE) over negotiations about Vivendi Universal's (V) guarantee on its convertibles, says hedge fund manager. "Vivendi Environnement are offering a fair conclusion, 50% more on the coupon is very reasonable. But they need us to get rid of the clause and hedge funds know that. Still Vivendi Environnement have been careless in saying it would only expect proxy votes for yes decisions. It doesn't help your corner to be seen pushing it through." (AJM) 0911 GMT (Dow Jones) BERLIN--CSFB cuts target on Siemens (SI) to EUR56 from EUR65, after lowering 03 EPS 11% to EUR3.19 reflecting poor end-market outlook. CSFB raises 02 EPS 4% to EUR2.77. Says Siemens is the most solid company in the engineering sector, but end markets weak. CSFB has hold on Siemens. Would get more interested if Siemens falls to low-40s. Shares -2.2% to EUR45.62. 6 ago - Dopo quasi 2 anni Lehman Brothers decide di ridurre la posizione di overweight sui titoli ciclici e di aumentare l'esposizione raccomandata sui comparti tecnologico, finanziario e farmaceutico, che appaiono al broker meglio posizionati per beneficiare dell'atteso rimbalzo delle borse mondiali. Segni di rallentamento nella ripresa congiunturale sono il motivo principale che spinge il broker a tagliare a Neutral il giudizio sui ciclici, pur in presenza di multipli ritenuti ancora interessanti. Ma il crollo dei mercati azionari sta facendo emergere migliori opportunita' d'investimento in altri settore particolarmente sacrificati dalle recenti ondate di vendite. Lehman stima che le banche europee siano trattate ad appena 1,6 volte il loro valore contabile, e le assicurazioni a 1,5 volte, livelli che rendono quanto mai appetibili questi titoli. Simile il ragionamento per tecnologici e farmaceutici, comparti la cui fase di declino dovrebbe essere al termine, per lasciare spazio a una performance superiore alla media nel momento in cui i mercati torneranno a salire. A livello di singoli titoli, Lehman inserisce nel Global Recommended Portfolio Telecom Italia, ARM, Aventis, Banco Popular, GlaxoSmithKline, Micron Technology e UBS. Rimuove invece 3M Co., ABN Amro, Advance Info Service, Bayer, Cathay Pacific, Home Depot, Host Marriott, Logica, Singapore Press Holdings, Stora Enso, BSCH e Telefonica.

A mio avviso sulle commodities è molto utile perchè tutta la speculazione passa per i futures, ma sugli indici di borsa mah... Qualcuno del "pubblico" usa mai l'S&P grande trattato alle grida da 250 dollari a punto ? direi che tutti ora usano il mini-S&P elettronico da 50$ a punto. Sul Mini-S&P il pubblico è : SHORT 120 MILA CONTRATTI e LONG 29 MILA = -91mila short Sull' S&P grande il "pubblico" è : SHORT 73 MILA CONTRATTI e LONG 159 MILA =+92mila long Se poi vado sul Nasdaq sia mini che normale il pubblico è LONG di 2 mila Sul Dow è SHORT Dopodichè i future sono solo 1/4 dei derivati, il grosso della speculazione usa opzioni, Spyder e QQQ Gente come Hightower ieri mattina dice di comprare put 820 S&P perchè il pubblico è troppo long. Secondo me invece come indicatore a breve del sentiment del pubblico conta di più la posizione sul Mini-S&P.... Modificato da - gz on 8/13/2002 11:59:59

Il difetto sta nel manico, ovvero nel prodotto che viene venduto come "risparmio gestito". I fondi comuni nel 90% dei casi in Italia NON SONO RISPARMIO GESTITO, ma semplicemente gli indici (italiano, europeo, americano, giapponese) travestiti da "gestione" Si vende un prodotto che non è una gestione con caratteristiche specifiche, ma il pratica il listino generale ( -2% di commissioni varie) di un certa area. Ma basterebbe allora pagare il 3 per mille e comprare direttamente in borsa uno strumento QUOTATO che riproduce il listino tedesco o italiano o americano Dimostrazione: Questi sono le variazioni dai massimi DI QUEST'ANNO (non del 2000), cioè dai massimi di gennaio o marzo 2002 dei fondi italiani "area America" fornitemi da Bridge (ce ne sono anche altri che non stanno nella pagina). Sembrano tutti uguali no? . Ovviamente si può fare anche il confronto da inizio 1999 o 1997 oppure dall'inizio della vita del fondo ecc..., ma come approssimazione questo da un idea. Fino a marzo la raccolta dei fondi era positiva e questa tabella da un indicazione di quello che è successo in 3-4 mesi e di come si differenzino tra loro i fondi e rispetto all'S&P 500 (l'indice che costa l'1 per mille comprare) Modificato da - gz on 8/13/2002 9:30:47

le uniche cose da notare sono altri guai di ^Vivendi#^ che si riflettono su tutti i media per "analogia" e forse la chiamata positiva su ^Sage#^ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1132 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--WestLB Panmure's Robin Campbell still keen on Powderject (U.PJP) despite withdrawal of tuberculosis vaccine from sale. Campbell says optimistic for flu vaccine sales in 02-03 flu season, and Powderject still making effective transition from loss-making to significant profits. Keeps at buy with GBP10 target. Shares -22% at 330p. (SLR) 1132 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Dealer at foreign bank in Zurich reports rivals actively recruiting experienced equities traders, weeding out those with less experience. Reasoning is that more experienced traders are better at selling in tough Swiss market, whose volumes are half of last year. But dealer expects local demand for brokers to dry up in a year or so. For now, Deutsche Bank's cited as aggressive recruiter after losing Swiss equities team to a rival. (BAK) 1114 GMT (Dow Jones) DUBLIN--Independent News & Media (U.INW) -4.9% at EUR1.55 despite news that 1H '02 advertising revenue +12% for the Irish print media. Merrion Stockbrokers continues to have "stock specific concerns regarding INW's balance sheet constraints" and debt levels, which will continue to hamper the company even with a global upturn in advertising markets. (QAF) 1110 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dexia (B.DEX) slides on profit taking after rapid rise last week, says London-based analyst. Some hedge funds jumped on the opportunity and took profits," he says. Dexia third-biggest decliner in CAC-40, -4.1% at EUR13.26. (CMW) 1108 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Despite news of cost cuts and interest in the fund arm Teather & Greenwood falls 1 p to 34p on subdued outlook. "It faces the problem of all small broking houses, to cut costs in step with declining market levels," says one fund manager. Thinks firm looks cheap at current levels. "It is good firm, good analysts and good ideas, but its not easy for them given the state of the market."(AJM) 1056 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--M.M. Warburg to put ^RWE#^ (G.RWE) profit estimates under review following worse-than-expected 1H operating profits. Says RWE's acquisition of Transgas and Innogy will increase company's interest expenses and weigh on the company's earnings. Target price EUR36.45, current EPS forecast EUR2.24. Shares -2.1% to EUR35.67. (RGL) 1055 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Even a goodwill write-down of EUR4B-EUR5B at Vivendi Universal (V) won't come as a great surprise because company is obliged to make quarterly goodwill adjustments and valuations of Seagram and Canal Plus have dropped quite a lot, says Williams de Broe analyst. Says new chief executive Jean-Rene Fourtou knows expectations for ^Vivendi#^ are low so won't be afraid of big writedown: "He'd want to clear the cupboard and go for the top end because he knows he's not responsible for the mistakes of the past." (SAL) 1054 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Sage#^ Group (U.SGE) has underperformed FTSE-100 by 30% over past two months. CSFB argues it is trading at the bottom if its historic range and top-line growth rate isn't dependent on macro recovery. Notes 50% of sales are recurring. Says even without opportunity offered by Interact, Sage has strong visible and recurring cash flows as well as solid medium term growth potential. Rates at buy with 180p target. Trades -0.8% at 123p. (NPF) (An item published at 0852 GMT misstated the target price due to an error at source.) 1052 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Reports of 5 UK biotechs in talks to form cancer company together. Would be good move, says Navid Malik at Williams de Broe. Together might be able to make US acquisitions. Plus, follows on heels of tie-up between leading UK cancer charities and research bodies in form of Cancer Research UK. Xenova (XNVA), Antisoma (U.ASM), British Biotech (BBIOY), KS Biomedix (U.KSB), Oxford GlycoSciences (OGSI). All unavailable for comment. (SLR) 1047 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--Goldman Sachs downgrades HeidelbergCement AG (G.HEI) to market performer from market outperformer. Says is concerned about company's ability to generate enough cash flow to meet debt reduction targets. Target price EUR40.80. Shares -4.1% to EUR39.15. (RGL) 1045 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Fallout from Aug 14? UBS Warburg warns any bad news as company executives attest to their financial results may dampen investor appetite for US corporate bond markets. This, the it suggests, could well "return the dollar to its medium-term bearish trend" as the market once again worries about how the US current account will be funded. (NEH) 1045 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Risks to oil sector earnings are increasing, but not through a lower oil price outlook, says J.P. Morgan. Cites three areas of concern: weak outlook for U.S. gas prices and petchem margins as U.S. economic growth expectations are reined in, recent disappointing results from Asian refining and marketing businesses and a generic fear of Middle East risk. Sees '03 earnings of Repsol (E.REP) possibly down as much as 11%, with ExxonMobil (XOM) and ChevronTexaco (CVX) falling 10% and BP (BP) sinking 9.7%. (MCW) Modificato da - gz on 8/12/2002 16:40:58

Il grafico che ho incluso qua sotto (in fondo al pezzo in inglese) piacerebbe a Ennio Doris, ma è importante quando si ragiona sui meriti e guai dell'investimento azionario di portafoglio (chi fa trading di fib30 a 5 minuti è pregato di non intervenire in questo topic solo per dire echisseneimporta-tanto-iovado-short...) Quasi tutti per semplicità prendono il grafico del Mibtel o S&P e dicono: " ecco qui si vede cosa si guadagnava e perdeva a investire in borsa...." Sbagliato. Quello è solo il primo calcolo. Poi c'è il'Inflazione per cui un +4% dell'indice con inflazione al +15% significa in realtà un -11%. Oppure negli anni 30 quando l'inflazione era negativa aggiungeva un rendimento all'indice. Ci sono i Dividendi che specie fino agli anni 80 pesavano molto. E ci sarebbero persino le tasse da contare. Per gli Stati Uniti i risultati se si sommano inflazione e dividendi e si calcola così IL TOTAL RETURN, il rendimento reale totale sono molto diversi da quelli che si vedono con il grafico. Ad es va di moda dire che uno comprava in borsa nel 1929, sul massimo assoluto poi ritornava in pari nel 1954. Sbagliato, in termini di rendimento totale il pareggio era nel 1945. Anche il mercato toro degli anni 20 sul grafico avrebbe un remdimento cumulativo del 450% circa, ma se si prendono anche i dividendi supera il 670% in 10 anni. Oppure guardando il grafico sembra che chi comprava ai primi del secolo nel 1940 era ancora sotto queli livelli. In realtà considerando che negli anni 20 non 'era inflazione, che negli anni 30 era Negativa e che i dividendi medi erano il 4.5% chi comprava nel 1905 ad es nel 1940 aveva moltiplicato per sette volte il capitale. In generale il periodo degli anni 70 risulta peggiore usando il rendimento totale di quanto non sembri usando il grafico e in generale però i mercati orso risultano più brevi e i mercati toro più lunghi. Ad ogni modo tutto l'articolo contiene confronti e numeri molto utili e serve a togliere una volta per tutte il vizio di guardare ai grafici di 30 anni per stabilite il rendimento di borsa. Modificato da - gz on 8/12/2002 15:17:44

ci sono sempre più paesi che coltivano caffè (ad es il Vietnam) e dato che è facile farlo il prezzo scende... Tutte le materie prime da 100 anni a questa parte tendono a scendere fatto salvi problemi di raccolto temporanei Anche mais e frumento che sono per 2/3 made in USA In linea di massima il ribasso sulle materie prime è il trend fondamentale quasi sempre Nei prossimi 2 o 3 anni ad es andare short il Petrolio che ora è tenuto su artificialmente dai problemi del medio oriente sarà un grande investimento perchè il trend fondamentale è al ribasso L'unica che ha speranze di salire nel lungo periodo è il LEGNO perchè difficile da ricreare e soggetta a una domanda senza sostituti Se qualcuno volesse studiare un attimo il Legno (Timber e Lumber) sarebbe interessante come investimento di lungo periodo Modificato da - gz on 8/12/2002 10:28:45

Il lunedì spesso si cominincia dalla "storia" maggiore di copertina di Barron's e quella di sabato era sulla tecnologia e su come sia ora comprabile con cautela. Ovvio che si può leggere a rovescio come segnale di sentiment ecc..., ma in ogni caso vale la pena di notare alcune cose. Come noto "gli analisti" non sono solo quelli di Wall Street con conflitti di interessi perchè vendono IPO e fanno affari con le aziende, ma ci sono anche dozzine di società indipendenti di pura ricerca e analisi senza conflitti di interesse. In particolare Soundview è una delle migliori per la tecnologia e trovo interessante che sia toro sulla tecnologia. Tra le altre cose di questo pezzo noto che ^STM#^ nei semiconduttori sia trattato in termini relativi come uno dei favoriti (grazie all'esposizione all'elettronica di consumo in prevalenza rispetto a pc e infrastrutture) ^Hewlett Packard#^ ad es ora costa 0.5 volte i ricavi attesi per ottobre 2003 e meno di 10 volte gli utili del 2003. ------------------------ Barron's di sabato--------------------------------------- Soundview's Arnie Berman argues that when the IT spending logjam breaks, the first checks will be written to hardware companies. His theory is that IT departments have postponed buying even the most basic items, and that these items -- PCs, servers, printers and switches -- can often be purchased at the departmental level without executive approval. (The same isn't true of other tech products, such as servers and enterprise software.) While Berman may be right, we fear many hardware companies will be hampered by sluggish PC demand -- and we doubt corporate IT spending will recover even modestly before 2003. Even so, we're bullish on several companies in this category -- and the one we're most enthusiastic about is Dell Computer. None of Dell's rivals have figured out how to effectively compete with Dell's direct-sales model. Indeed, the company's success was the obvious driver behind Hewlett-Packard's merger with Compaq. Dell continues to gain market share in the U.S. and abroad, it has a solid balance sheet with about $8 billion in cash, and it's zeroing in on potentially large new product areas. The one catch? Valuation. The stock trades for 30 times expected earnings for the January 2003 fiscal year. And PC demand is hardly robust. Microsoft recently said it expects PC unit growth of 5% or less for its own fiscal year ending June 2003. That suggests Dell's growth -- the Street expects 13% higher revenue in the January 2004 fiscal year -- must be driven by market share gains and expansion into new markets. Still, we tend to side with the bulls, who expect Dell to grow by applying its direct-sales model to additional technology products. Steve Milunovich, tech strategist at Merrill Lynch, says he's bullish on Dell "not so much for its PC business, but rather for its ability to move up into routers and storage and servers." The company also seems to be making plans to attack the printer market, where it currently has no products of its own. Bob Rezaee, a portfolio manager at Montgomery Asset Management, sums it up: "Dell benefits from the commoditization of technology." On Hewlett-Packard, our gut instinct was that the Compaq merger was a bad idea, destined to create the next Unisys, a big, sleepy, low-growth tech company. Nonetheless, the stock is statistically cheap -- far cheaper than the other large- cap tech companies we looked at for this story. At a recent 12.92, H-P now trades for about 0.5 times expected revenues for the October 2003 fiscal year, and under 10 times projected fiscal 2003 earnings. Goldman's Conigliaro calls it "dirt cheap, the cheapest computer company by far." There are reasons for the low valuation, of course. Integration problems have slowed some H-P segments; the company still must prove it can wring the expected savings out of the merger. And the stock has been hurt by speculation about Dell entering the printer business. While H-P faces big challenges in PCs and other computing segments, it remains the premier manufacturer of printers. Dell is more likely to partner with Lexmark or Canon than it is to make its own printers; H-P bulls see little chance of significant near-term impact on H-P's printer business. H-P's imaging segment reported just shy of $5 billion in revenue for the latest quarter; given a $20 billion run rate, we think the current market value of $37 billion would almost be reasonable for the printer business alone. By contrast, rival Lexmark trades for about 1.2 times expected 2003 revenues. "Everyone hates [H-P Chief Executive] Carly [Fiorina], but she's not evil incarnate," says Soundview's Arnie Berman. If this company can ultimately generate revenues equal to the combined results of H-P and Compaq for 2000, he notes, and can realize the expense synergies management has promised, the company could eventually earn $2.20 a share. "Now, the market does not believe that," Berman adds, "but the stock clearly trades for a low multiple [based on its] earnings potential. It can certainly move higher." Sun Microsystems, once the dot in dot-com, is now the dot in dot-bomb. Trading today for under $4 a share, the stock is down more than 70% this year, and over 90% from its 2000 peak. Having dominated the server market for Internet startups, telecom companies and financial-services firms, Sun has been hammered by the swoon in tech spending in those sectors and by increased competition. Kevin Landis, portfolio manager with the San Jose, Calif.-based FirstHand Funds, says the server business has become a "food fight," with IBM and H-P trying to under-cut Sun's prices. "And it's working," he says. "I'm worried about them." He's not the only one. Montgomery Asset Management's Rezaee thinks Sun has been too slow to cut costs. "In the latest quarter, Sun had roughly $3 billion in revenue," he says. "I don't understand how you can have $3 billion in revenue and not be profitable. They're trying to fight too many battles -- proprietary chips, their own operating system, the software -- you can't be everything to everyone. Their business model was not designed for standards-based pricing and gross margins. The environment just doesn't favor Sun." We admire Sun CEO Scott McNeally's shoot-from-the-hip style. But given the troubled backdrop -- and shares trading for 30 times expected June 2003 fiscal year earnings -- we would avoid Sun for now. Cisco Systems was the poster child for the late-'Nineties bubble. As a producer of routers and switches for corporate networks, the company provided the plumbing for the broad expansion of the 'Net. The company's market value at one point reached half a trillion dollars. Now it's down to less than $100 billion, badly bruised by slowing corporate spending. John Chambers, Cisco's courtly CEO, remained resolutely bullish on Cisco's growth prospects long after fundamentals had begun to deteriorate -- for the July fiscal year, the dream of regular 30% to 50% revenue growth was replaced by a nearly 15% decline. Even so, the stock carries a respectable multiple, trading at 25 times expected earnings for the fiscal year ending July 2003, and nearly four times estimated sales. Last week, Cisco reported profits for its fiscal fourth quarter, ended July, that slightly beat Street expectations. Revenues rose 12% from the year-ago quarter, and gross margins grew to a higher-than-expected 67.7%. Even in the current moribund environment, Cisco produced sequential gross-margin improvement in each of the past four quarters. While Chambers indicated continued weakness in the telecom sector, he reported that demand from corporate customers was higher than expected in the quarter. And he noted that the company has steadily been gaining market share from rivals. "It's the last man standing" in networking equipment, notes Paul Wick, portfolio manager of the Seligman Communciations & Information fund. The once formidable roster of Cisco competitors, he notes, now looks like a list of the walking wounded: Juniper Networks, Alcatel, Nortel Networks, Lucent Technologies and Ericsson. Cisco, in contrast, has about $20 billion in cash and investments, a bigger stash than any tech company other than Microsoft. "Cisco's competitive position has been enhanced by the downturn," says Integral's McNamee. "It has never been as well-positioned relative to the competition as it is today." Cisco has made aggressive use of its financial strength to add customers, particularly in the difficult telecom market. "The carriers are really hurting," McNamee observes. "And the guys who sell to carriers are really hurting, with a capital H. Cisco goes to the carriers and tells them, take our product, and pay me in a year. The competitors can't do that. Cisco can afford to wait a year, and grab the customer. Ballgame over. They are making the bet that the revenues at risk are small compared to potentially owning those accounts at the end of this. It's smart accounting, and smart business." And a good stock to own. "With Cisco, my conviction is higher than on just about any other company," says UBS Warburg's Pip Cobrun. "They have 85% of the router market and 65% of the switching market. They are dominant in their distribution channel and they have mediocre competition. As long as you think they can manage the business back to 25% operating margins" -- in the July quarter, Cisco's operating margin hit 21.5%, up from the low single digits a year earlier -- "you can feel good about the story even without much top-line growth." Like Cisco, EMC was once a huge investor favorite, dominating the market for high-end data-storage systems. But the company's once-fabled margins have been eroded by the emergence of considerable competition, and the stock has taken a beating: Now trading at about $7, it is down dramatically from more than $100 a share in late 2000. In response to the shifting competition, EMC has been beefing up its storage-software offerings, including features allowing the integration of its hardware with competitive gear. The company has also been an aggressive cost cutter. "They're doing all the right things after an incredibly hard time," says Soundview's Berman. "Last year the competition was finally competitive -- they would have had problems in 2001 even if tech spending was good. And EMC is far more advanced on the software front than their hardware rivals, like Hitachi and IBM." EMC is a corporate turnaround story, not a simple bet on improved corporate IT spending. On a statistical basis, the stock is hardly bargain priced, trading at a lofty 41 times expected 2003 earnings, but robust IT spending in 2004 would boost profits considerably. A bet on EMC will require more patience than other hardware stocks -- the company and its investors have to adjust to a storage market that is a far more competitive place than when EMC dominated the playing field. We think it will be a difficult adjustment. While we agonized on this one, we can't recommend it. Semiconductors Groping for the Floor Semiconductor stocks continue to ratchet lower, as chipmakers report a steady stream of bad news -- the Philadelphia Semiconductor index has been cut in half since April. And it may not be over quite yet. It's worth noting that Cisco's surprisingly good gross margins in the latest quarter were partly the result of lower component prices. While some chipmakers will benefit once IT spending rebounds, we would tend to avoid those with high exposure to the personal computer and cellphone sectors. Ergo, we cannot recommend Intel. No question, the company still has firm control of the microprocessor business, even though rival Advanced Micro Devices has some new chips in the works that could challenge Intel's lead at the high-end of the market ("The Next Big Thing," Aug. 5). Intel has a strong balance sheet, smart management and cutting-edge factories. But its fate is inextricably tied to the PC demand cycle -- there is little room to increase market share, the way Dell can, and efforts to move into the communications sector have been disappointing. And there's another issue: At 32 times expected 2002 earnings, or 4.4 times anticipated revenues, Intel is no cheap stock in an environment where PC demand is growing in the low single digits. "It's hard to imagine Intel not having a dominant position," says FirstHand's Landis. "The issue is the saturation of the opportunity. This is the ultimate example of a company that made the most of one of the greatest business opportunities ever. But now what?" Sell it, we suggest. Landis thinks STMicroelectronics offers a smart alternative. "I was looking at Intel recently as a way to have more semi exposure, because that's what everyone will run back to when demand turns," he says. "But it's hard for Intel to grow. I wanted a big-cap, reasonably priced, well-known liquid stock. And STMicro fit the description." Landis notes that, like Texas Instruments, the company has broad product exposure serving multiple markets. One difference: Where TI has more exposure to the communications sector, STMicro is more tied to consumer electronics. The company has some exposure to the cellphone market -- Nokia in particular is a big customer -- but it also does considerable business in industrial and automotive applications. Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, STMicro trades for 20 times projected 2003 earnings, and 2.3 times projected revenues. That makes it cheaper than TI, which changes hands for 26 times expected 2003 earnings and 3.5 times revenues. We have recently waxed bullish on Texas Instruments ("Ready to Rebound," July 1), which in recent years has reconfigured its business to focus on analog and digital signal-processing chips. TI has been showing improving revenue and profits, though it sees moderating growth ahead. While still impressed with the turnaround story, we've lately become concerned that the Street has largely discounted the rebound in TI's fortunes. We worry about the company's high relative valuation and its significant exposure to the cellular-handset market. It would be easy to be enthusiastic at lower levels. But for now, pass. For a broad-based semiconductor bet, STMicro, with heavier exposure to consumer-electronics gear, looks cheaper. Of the stocks reviewed here, none seems more attractive than Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's biggest maker of silicon chips for other companies and a pioneer of the foundry model in which chips are made to order for a wide range of semiconductor companies that don't have factories of their own. "The semiconductor industry is so capital intensive now that the argument for using a foundry to make your stuff has never been better," says Soundview's Berman. "In the last cycle, foundries gained a lot of share at the lagging edge, where they were able to make parts more cheaply." But now, he adds, they have leading-edge capability, with technologies like 300-millimeter silicon wafers. And that means a new set of customers. "Texas Instruments, Motorola, STMicro and Advanced Micro Devices, historically integrated vendors, have decided to outsource at least a portion of their manufacturing -- they're all adopting asset-light strategies," says Integral's McNamee. "TSMC and UMC [United Microelectronics] are disproportionately advantaged by this. Both TSMC and UMC have always been great companies, but they had been too expensive to own for a long time. Not anymore." The stock trades for just under 17 times expected 2003 earnings. We'd buy it, though there is one caution: TSMC can periodically get caught up in politics. When tensions between Taiwan and China heat up, Taiwanese stocks tend to cool off. Micron Technology, the dominant producer of the computer memory chips known as DRAMs, has gained market share in recent years as the memory business has endured difficult times. In recent years, the sector has suffered from severe overcapacity, resulting in the recent financial distress at Korea's Hynix Semiconductor and the exit of several other players. The problem with Micron? It sells commodity parts with close ties to PC demand. "The company loses money at least one out of every two quarters," says Seligman's Wick. "It's a bad business, and capital intensive. The company has $11 a share in book value, so at at about 18, it's at a level without much more valuation risk. But I wouldn't be long." Neither would we. Micron might make sense if you believe in a big coming PC cycle -- but we don't. Micron is a stock to trade, not to buy and hold. Applied Materials and other equipment makers have been under intense pressure as Wall Street rethinks its expectations for the semiconductor-equipment sector. Applied maintains that three concurrent technology trends will continue to drive sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment: a shift to 300-millimeter silicon wafers from 200 millimeter wafers, a reduction in circuit line widths, and a switch to copper from aluminum for certain chip circuitry. While that's true, the timetable on adoption of those technologies is stretching out. Intel, AMD, UMC and TSMC all recently cut capital spending plans in the face of slower component demand. Weak PC and cellphone sales will hamper the chip recovery and push out a pick-up in the equipment business. And Applied remains pricey: The stock trades for 20 times expected earnings for the October 2003 fiscal year and 75 times current-year estimates. Moreover, we suspect profit projections may be too high. In other words, the stock may yet trade lower. We'd avoid it for now. Software Microsoft's World You may not like its tactics, but from an investor's view, there's a lot to like about Microsoft. For one thing, the company will be a direct beneficiary of any pickup in PC sales, thanks to Windows and Office. More intriguing for the long haul is Redmond's increasingly aggressive bid for a greater slice of the corporate market, where it has not traditionally been a big player. Microsoft continues to push its .Net strategy for simplifying the links between software programs, which should give it an increased presence in corporate IT departments. Meanwhile, starting at the low-end of the market, Microsoft has begun sneaking into enterprise applications, territory historically controlled by SAP, Siebel Systems and Oracle. While Microsoft has gotten more press for its efforts at "controlling the living room" via its Xbox game player, the bigger opportunity lies in gaining an increased share of corporate spending. Microsoft has a few other things going for it, including roughly $10 a share in cash and investments -- some investors argue that it's time for the company to start paying a dividend -- strong management, and a stock off nearly two-thirds from its peak. Bill Whyman, an analyst with the Washington-based Precursor Group, thinks Microsoft's .Net Web services strategy could eventually become a big factor. "If Microsoft is stuck on the PC, then growth will mature," he says. "If .Net succeeds, the company will be let loose in the enterprise, and the established incumbents should be saying, 'Uh-oh.' If Microsoft can get off the PC, it opens up a $90 billion enterprise-software opportunity, of which it now has a very small share." Not the least, the stock seems reasonably priced. "The last time the stock was at anywhere near these valuations, it looked like most of its legal problems were in front of it," Berman says. "It now looks like the problems are mostly behind it." We agree. Buy it. While you're at it, buy some Oracle. In recent years, the database giant has suffered not only from the IT spending slowdown, but also from concerns about lack of management depth and market share losses in it applications business. All of that has hammered Oracle's stock: The shares are down about 35% this year, and more than 75% since the Nasdaq peak in early 2000. Even so, the stock is not statistically cheap, at about 23 times expected earnings for the May 2003 fiscal year, and about five times next year's revenues. Still, we think Oracle is likely to expand its applications business as corporate customers become increasingly interested in choosing fewer and larger vendors, which favors application "suites" over "best of breed" choices from smaller software companies. The company is likely to continue to dominate the database software market. And Oracle has smartly expanded its services business, eating up business that might otherwise go to consulting groups like Accenture. Oracle will survive and thrive. For similar reasons, we like SAP, which dominates the market for enterprise resource planning software. Surveys of IT managers consistently show widespread plans to spend on the category. SAP has a huge installed base of large customers who continue to pay SAP for service and support. Revenue and earnings should show double-digit growth in 2003 and beyond; the stock trades for 22 times 2003 earnings, a comparable valuation to Oracle. And like Oracle, the company is likely to benefit as IT departments prune the number of companies from which they buy services. Though we caution that any delay in the IT spending recovery will cause trouble, we're cautiously bullish. Services Seeking Help To calm your frayed nerves, imagine you are a technology investor sitting under a palm tree on a sugar-sand Caribbean beach, watching dolphins frolic in the lazy, deep blue waves. In one hand you hold a rummy island beverage; in the other, two years of brokerage statements. They show you own only one stock. You read them, lean back and smile. That's because the one stock is credit-card processor First Data, the only one of the 20 largest tech stocks to actually gain ground since the March 2000 bubble; First Data's shares are up more than 60% since that time. Look at the stock chart, and you might think it was upside down. While First Data isn't everyone's idea of a tech stock -- it doesn't make chips or hardware or routers -- the company is a major consumer of computing resources. First Data, which also operates the Western Union electronic-money-transfer business, has continued to grind out steady revenue and profit growth, a fact that the market has richly rewarded. It's hard to find fault with its business -- or the stock. The shares trade at 20 times expected 2002 earnings, or less than 18 times 2003 estimates; top-line growth is holding steady at about 10%. First Data has been a good place to seek shelter from the storm. If we were anticipating a V-shaped tech recovery, we might urge leaving First Data for purer tech plays. But for now, it seems a sensible hedge against broader exposure to corporate IT spending. You might argue that we should cut-and-paste our review of IBM and slot it up in the hardware section. But Big Blue has made a determined move away from hardware and into services. The most obvious demonstration of that: the recent agreement to acquire PwC Consulting, which contrasts with a previous decision to exit disk-drive manufacturing. "It is gradually becoming a healthier company, in the sense of pruning businesses that are absolute drags, and taking costs out, and trying to be more transparent in the information it give out," says Goldman's Conigliaro. "It's also trading at the low end of its historical valuation relative to the S&P 500." IBM, like Oracle, Microsoft and SAP, should benefit as companies concentrate their technology spending with a smaller number of vendors. Though there no doubt will be some integration problems with the PwC deal, IBM proved a shrewd buyer-it is paying 0.7 times sales, comfortably below the multiples for comparable public companies. With IBM trading at about 14.5 times expected 2003 earnings, the shares are reasonably priced. The stock is a Buy. Cheaper than IBM is Electronic Data Systems. EDS shares have been pummeled in recent weeks; it has been an IT services provider to WorldCom. Worries about the deal have left the stock trading at just 10 times expected 2003 earnings of $3.43 a share. In a recent research report, Merrill Lynch analyst Stephen McClellan brands the stock "a rare value for patient investors," even after sharply marking down the company for the WorldCom exposure. We see no reason to expect any slowdown in corporate outsourcing of data centers and other business processes -- though McClellan says EDS shares could be stuck in neutral until it wins some more "megacontracts." That said, EDS looks like one of the better bargains among large-cap tech stocks. Telecom Cut The Cord Let's be blunt. We're worried about the cellular business. The issue is relatively simple. The market for cellular voice traffic is maturing. The cellphone companies think they can stimulate replacement demand with color screens, built-in cameras and other new features. And yet most people use cellphones to make voice calls. We fear current estimates for handset sales for both this year and next year are too high -- and if that's true, the stocks could see another down leg. Merrill's Milunovich says the cell- phone makers are suffering from a condition Harvard tech guru Clay Christensen calls "overshoot," meaning current technology is already more than good enough for most users. In markets where that happens, Milunovich says, profits shift from systems companies, such as Nokia and Motorola, to component companies, such as Qualcomm and Texas Instruments. Montgomery's Rezaee says he'd be a buyer of Qualcomm shares "once the dust settles." The company's CDMA technology has a strong foothold in Korea, Latin America and in the U.S., where Sprint and Verizon have standardized around it. Unlike Motorola or Nokia, Qualcomm does not make phones. Rather, it collects licensing fees from systems using CDMA technology, and it sells chips for CDMA-based phones. With the stock trading for about 23 times expected earnings for the September 2003 fiscal year, though, it seems fully valued. Of the large handset companies, Motorola is having a better time of it for the moment than Nokia. While Motorola has been showing some results from a long restructuring process, its Finnish rival has lost some market share. Motorola is "doing things it should have done years ago," as Rezaee puts it, although it remains to be seen if the company can produce reliable revenue growth. Nokia dominated the phone business in the late 1990s, thanks in part to ineffective competition from Ericsson and Motorola. But competition has heated up. Though not in our top 20, the company gaining the most ground in the wireless phone market at the moment is Samsung. Meanwhile, the sector as a whole could see more disappointments, as the industry's struggling carriers attempt to lure investors to use additional services made possible with so-called 2.5G and 3G services. Neither handset maker looks expensive at the moment -- Nokia trades for 14 times expected 2003 earnings, versus 24 times for Motorola, though Motorola looks cheaper on a revenue basis, at 0.9 times expected 2003 results, about half that of Nokia. And yet we think estimates, and stock prices, face one more down leg. For now, we would not be buyers of any companies in the handset business. The bottom line: There are tech-stock bargains to be had, but investors should tread cautiously; some of the bear's wounds will prove fatal. The PC, cellphone, semiconductor, chip-equipment and enterprise-software businesses will continue to struggle. And yet it turns out the tech sector is not as dead as you thought. These difficult days will allow a handful of well-positioned companies to extend their lead. So cheer up. Go buy yourself a cellphone, a PC or a DVD player. And start writing that tech-stock wish list. Edited by - gz on 8/12/2002 10:56:2

Le borse non sono più un fenomeno a latere dell'economia, ma sempre più il il tessuto connettivo dell'economia che da una parte si riflette nei mercati e dall'altra ne è mossa perchè i mecati a loro volta costringono i governi a muoversi. Ormai si chiede agli economisti della FED cosa pensano dei consumi o degli investimenti, sperando da questo di capire come andranno le borse. E questi rispondono "... beh... i consumi e gli investimenti delle imprese dipendono molto se questo rimbalzo dei mercati continua..." ! Quindi è un cerchio in cui è difficile dire qual'è l'uovo o la gallina, o il gatto che si morde la coda o se si vuole essere più sofisticati il concetto di riflessività inventato da George Soros. Gli esempi sono tanti. Se le borse non crollavano tanto gli arresti a raffica di managers e l'obbligo dell' a.d. ora in America di giurare (!) sul bilancio pena 20 anni di galera non li avevamo. Ho letto che in Malesia dove avevano accusato i mercati finanziari di essere causa della loro rovina ora dopo la crisi del 1997 aggiornano via internet in tempo reale le loro riserve valutarie 24 ore al giorno per paura di non essere abbastanza trasparenti. Ieri Bush ha offerto un mega programma di aiuto al Brasile per 30 miliardi di dollari perchè aveva paura che le borse crollassero e di perdere le elezioni. Glielo ha imposto il mercato (lascio in sospeso se alla fine sia stato un bene o un male). E ha fatto l'opposto di quello che l'amministrazione aveva intenzione di fare. Thomas Friedman ad es. ( ^la Lexus e l'Ulivo, il testo fondamentale sulla globalizzazione#http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385499345/qid=1028915314/sr=2-2/ref=sr_2_2/104-4576811-8153511^), mostra come il mercato finanziario è diventato la "golden straitjacket", cioè la Camicia di Forza D'Oro che impone ai governi a comportarsi un poco meglio. Alcuni sono meno reattivi al mercato come i giapponesi e gli italiani e altri di più come i coreani, singapore, malesia, thailandia e poi america e inghilterra. Il mercato è fatto di gente avida e nevrotica presi uno per uno e giorno per giorno. Ma tutti assieme e presi su un periodo di 12 mesi invece indicano la realtà economica. In generale i governi che dal punto di vista economico (la morale al prossimo topic) fanno meno danni sono quelli che non possono fare a meno di dargli retta. La Corea è l'esempio più stupefacente: una ripresa incredibile dopo la crisi finanziaria speculativa del 1997-98: ha cacciato politici corrotti (primo ministro arrestato), ha spazzato via regolamentazioni e cartelli, aperto all'estero il sistema finanziario, rimosso i vertici di tante banche. La sua borsa ora è diventata la migliore del mondo e l'economia idem. A mio avviso i mercati globali del 2000 sono molto più potenti, immediati e intolleranti di quello che potevano essere in qualunque altro periodo e costituiscono un fenomeno interamente nuovo nella storia. E un fenomeno che impedisce che l'economia globale vada a finire male come negli anni 30. Il mercato finanziario globale è sempre più forte dei governi ormai e li rimette in riga. Questo perchè, ad esempio, i mercati sono come King Kong, pesano ora per 25 o 30 trilioni di dollari quando 30 anni fa pesavano fore per 1 trilione di dollari !!!. E vi siamo tutti collegati, sempre più gente, sempre, anche il 9 di agosto. Più che i singoli politici conta il meccanismo globale, la Camicia di Forza D'Oro dei mercati che punisce e premia in tempo reale e in modo pesante. Ora il mercato ha speso quasi tre anni a punire gli eccessi commessi a fine anni 90 e lo ha fatto in modo violento per ottenere risultati immediati come è sempre la natura di un meccanismo speculativo. E proprio per questo però dovrebbe essere in grado ora di cominciare a premiare di nuovo. Modificato da - gz on 8/12/2002 1:0:16

Purtroppo oggi il titolo protagonista e in senso negativo è Cablevision che prende 5 downgrade e ha un downgrade imminente del debito. Noto che alcuni come Merril lo abbassano da strong buy ora che ha perso da aprile da 30 a 5.6 dollari e che fino a ieri i target erano ancora a 30-40 dollari. Sui semiconduttori chiamate generali negative Sui "retail" chiamate generali positive Interessante il buy su Big Lots titolo a basso rischio sottovalutato Guilford Pharmaceuticals un biotech con un buy fresco Sui titoli non tech ci sono perlo più revisioni al rialzo degli utili ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CHANGE IN RATINGS Alamosa PCS (APS / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney APS reported an in line 2Q for top-line growth and EBITDA. However, company reduced guidance for '02 EBITDA to reflect change in access revenue recognition, but more importantly the risk of higher churn in 2H/02. We are reducing APS to 3S from 1S. Without stronger EBITDA, we believe APS's '03 targets become tougher and create greater risk of covenant violation. Arden Realty (ARI / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Downgrading our rating from Buy to Market Perform. The company is highly exposed to Southern California, where visibility continues to deteriorate. Aeropostale, Inc. (ARO / NYSE) Piper Jaffray We are upgrading ARO shares to Strong Buy from Outperform. As we believe that ARO scores with trend-right values for BTS season. We reiterate our $33 price target. Ashland (ASH / NYSE) Bank of America Montgomery Downgrading our rating from Market Perform to Underperform. Crown Castle Intl. Corp. (CCI / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Downgrading our rating from Buy to Hold. Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Downgrading from Buy to Hold, with a $15 price target. The company's lack of funding specifics is frustrating, and we are losing confidence in this name. Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Lowering our price target to $25 per share, to reflect the Rainbow redemption. Maintain Buy rating, because of valuation. Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC / NYSE) Bear Stearns We had been officially carrying a $40 price target. However, we are now lowering our price target to $22 based on a 9.5 multiple of 2003 estimated cable EBITDA. Of that $18 reduction $4 comes from the dilution from the RMG roll-in $1 comes form a reduction in the assumed market value of their PCS licenses, while the remaining $13 comes from a reduction in our target multiple from 13 times 2003 EBITDA estimates to 9.5 times. We believe this lower multiple reflects the risks associated with a still cloudy financing plan. Until there is clarity and visibility on the detail of the funding, and some execution we will retain this lower target and the stock will find it difficult to appreciate. Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC / NYSE) Merrill Lynch Lowering our near-term rating from Strong Buy to Neutral. Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC / NYSE) NEWS The owner of cable- television systems and sports teams may have its ``BB+'' corporate credit rating cut by Standard & Poor's, S&P said. Emulex Corp. (ELX / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Raising our 2003 estimate to $0.68 per share, despite the company's revenue warning. ELX will benefit from a lower tax rate and improving margin mix. Maintain Market Perform rating, as we believe the valuation does not fully reflect demand uncertainties. Emulex Corp. (ELX / NYSE) Weisel Partners We expect shares will sell off initially as investors focus on top line estimate reduction. We would be buyers longer term, as LT story remains unchanged. Emulex Corp. (ELX / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Raising our 2003 EPS estimate to $0.72, to reflect better gross margins and tax rate. Cutting our revenue estimate though, to match the company's new guidance. Maintain Hold rating, but with our new $20 price target. Emulex Corp. (ELX / NYSE) NEWS The maker of computer circuit cards said it expects sales of $305 million to $325 million for the year ending in June. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call is $335.6 million. Emulex (ELX / NYSE) Goldman Sachs With Several Issues Fast Approaching, We Are Downgranding ELX from RL to MP, our price target is $23.61. EMCOR Group (EME / NYSE) Lehman Bros Initiating coverage with an Overweight rating and $57 price target. The company is benefiting from the increased outsourcing trend, and is carrying a record $2.8 billion backlog. Flowers Foods (FLO / NYSE) Bank of America Montgomery Upgrading from Underperform to Market Performer, with a $21 price target. The company's operating income is recovering, and we believe the shares have bottomed-out for the time being. Guilford Pharmaceuticals (GLFD / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read We are downgrading our rating to Hold from Buy. (1) Gliadel is not selling as well as we had anticipated as evidenced by 2Q02 results;(2) As a result of weaker sales, we are lowering our peak sales estimates for Gliadel, (3) We do not believe 2002 product-related newsflow will be significant enough to support a higher rating, (4) Restructuring efforts will likely yield necessary cost-savings, (5) Uncertainty surrounding company's ability to license/partner pipeline products that are non-strategic. Manpower (MAN / NYSE) Weisel Partners Initiate w/ Market Perform; While market conditions slowly improving, we believe shares close to full valuation. Merix Corporation (MERX / Nasdaq) Weisel Partners Upgrading from Attractive to Buy; Modest upside to Aug Q likely; Mkt position growing stronger; Increasing FY May '03 est slightly. Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc (PCL / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read Plum Creek's FFO has not been sufficient to cover its annual dividend of $2.28 per share. PCL has ample cash on its books,to continue to pay out the dividend at this rate for probably another two years.However, since the beginning of the year, the company has indicated that it would like to be able to cover the dividend through FFO and not continue to augment it through the use of excess cash. We are downgrading our rating from buy to Reduce. Premcor Inc. (PCO / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Initiating coverage with a Market Perform rating. The refining business is facing leaner margins. Public Storage (PSA / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney We are lowering our rating on PSA from Outperform to Neutral based on a weak earnings outlook and premium valuation. The company reported 2Q02 FFO of $0.70 per share, $0.07 below consensus and $0.05 below our estimate. Continued erosion of occupancy in the self storage business has been the result of significant price competition and difficult economic conditions. Robert Half Int'l (RHI / NYSE) Weisel Partners Initiate w/ Mkt Perform; Given recent economic news, we remain cautious near-term. back to top STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES Applied Materials (AMAT / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros We look for a generally in-line report next week, with upside potential to our $1.88 billion bookings estimate. October guidance is another story though, as we are currently seeing sequential declines. Maintain Equal-weight rating. Amgen (AMGN / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Raising our forward EPS estimates, as the company has obtained exclusive marketing right for Serono's psoriasis drug in Phase III trials. Maintain Equal-weight rating. AMR Corporation (AMR / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We are reiterating our Strong Buy rating. We believe Albany Molecular Research's contract pipeline represents a clear indication of the continued strong demand for its high quality discovery and preclinical development services. In addition, we believe the company's success in adding research projects with long term upside potential should mitigate some of the concerns surrounding future Allegra royalties. Our 12-month price target of $35. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF / NYSE) Lehman Bros Raising our full-year estimate to $1.95, as the company is cycling around to easy earnings comps. Reiterate Overweight rating and $38 price target. Alliant Techsystems (ATK / NYSE) Lehman Bros Raising our full-year estimate to $3.60 per share, to match the company's new guidance. Maintain Equal-weight rating, because of ATK's decelerating growth rate. Aventis (AVE / NYSE) NEWS The French-based drugmaker abandoned an experimental hypertension treatment after tests showed it wasn't effective enough. It's the third setback in two months for Aventis products in advanced stages of clinical development. Best Buy Company (BBY / NYSE) JP Morgan Chase & Co. BBY lowered our 2Q02 EPS from $0.30-$0.32 to $0.17-$0.21 on below plan comps. We slashed our FY03 EPS from $2.16 to $1.65. We reiterate our long-term buy rating. BEBE Stores (BEBE / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros Cutting our 2003 estimate to $1.23 per share, as the company is still working through some excess inventory. Maintain Underweight rating and $20 price target. Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO / Nasdaq) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Trimming our EPS estimates to $2.78 in fiscal 2002 and $3.12 for next year, as the company is facing a higher effective tax rate. BIO continues to improve operationally and provides significant upside potential. Maintain Strong Buy rating and $63 price target. BJ Services Company (BJS / NYSE) Credit Suisse First Boston Reducing our price target to $25 per share, as we believe the company deserves a peer-valuation in-line with the grocery retailers. Maintain Hold rating. BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We are only modestly reducing our 2H:FY03 EPS estimate, particularly relative to management's guidance of $1.30-$1.34 for 3Q and 4Q combined. Contrary to most other managements, BJ's is assuming thatJuly sales and margins trends will persist through the second half of the year. We maintain our Buy rating. Big Lots (BLI / NYSE) Piper Jaffray We are raising our our 2002 estimates, from $0.63 to $0.65 and raising our 2003 estimates from $0.79 to $0.80. CNA Financial Corporation (CNA / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We continue to rate CNA Financiala Market Performer. CNA reported better than expected second quarter EPS of $0.62 versus our $0.55 estimate. Cox Radio (CXR / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Cutting EBITDA estimates and our price target to $28 per share, because of higher promotional spending and lower expected industry growth. Maintain Equal-weight rating. Cox Radio (CXR / NYSE) Bear Stearns We are maintaining our Attractive rating on shares of Cox Radio and lowering our price target to $25 from $31 per share. Dean Foods Co. (DF / NYSE) Goldman Sachs Dean Foods Co. reported Excellent 2Q results EPS (FY Dec): 2002E US$2.78, 2003E US$3.00, our price target is: $35.16. We reiterate it on our Recommended List. Dean Foods Co. (DF / NYSE) Bear Stearns Dean raises full year expectations to $2.75 to $2.78 from old $2.60 to $2.63 range. Our estimate up accordingly to $2.76; calendar 2003 estimate becomes $3.05 from previous $2.90. Branded initiatives on soy Hershey flavored milks Jakada coffee line Land O Lakes International Delight creamers and others appear well on track with combined 23% gain on those lines; marketing in quarter was $5 million above earlier budget. Strong showing indicative of what we view of continuing earnings momentum story. Reiterate strong Buy rating and $45 target price. Dean Foods Co. (DF / NYSE) Bank of America Montgomery Raising earnings estimates to $2.80 per share in 2002 and $3.10 for next year, as the company is realizing merger synergies (form Suiza Foods) faster than expected. Reiterate Strong Buy rating and $44 price target. Del Monte Foods Company (DLM / NYSE) Goldman Sachs Del Monte reported 4Q operating EPS of $0.34 (vs. $0.34), $0.06 above our estimate and consensus. Lower interest expense and marketing spending helped offset some of the decline in sales. The company commented that the acquisition of some of Heinz brands is on schedule to close by the end of the calendar year. We reiterate our Market Performer rating. El Paso (EP / NYSE) JP Morgan Chase & Co. We reiterate our Buy rating on El Paso, based on attractive valuation. Although, we are lowering our estimates for FY02 to $2.00 from $2.68 and our FY03 estimates to $1.90 from $2.95. El Paso Corp. (EP / NYSE) NEWS The pipeline company's outlook was revised to negative from stable by Standard & Poor's, S&P said in a st atement. Entravision Communication (EVC / NYSE) Weisel Partners Jun quarter in-line; Increasing estimates on increased visibility, improved outlook for the second half. Reiterate Buy rating. FleetBoston Financial (FBF / NYSE) Bear Stearns We are reiterating our Buy rating and $35 target price on FleetBoston in light of the IMF's decision to provide $30 billion in loans to Brazil over the next 18 months. We believe the IMF aid to Brazil means that FleetBoston will have more time to execute its strategy of reducing cross-border exposure to Brazil in somewhat calmer financial markets than we have seen over the past month. FleetBoston has the ability and expressed intent to maintain its current common stock dividend rate of $1.40 per share per year, assuming its earnings remain within its expectations of $0.55 to $0.65 per share per quarter. Hewitt (HEW / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We are raising our 12-month target price to $29 from $27 and reiterating our Buy rating. Hewitt Associates (HEW / NYSE) Bank of America Montgomery Raising EPS estimates to $1.15 in fiscal 2002 and $1.16 for next year, to reflect the company's improving operating margins. Reiterate Buy rating, as HEW's outsourcing business should continue to perform well in this difficult environment. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Cutting our EPS estimates to $2.24 for this year and $2.90 in fiscal 2003, because of the weaker overall financial environment. Maintain Equal-weight rating. Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Reducing EPS estimates to the low-end of the company's new guidance, to reflect a slower rebound in second-half pricing. LAMR is also having trouble keeping a lid on expenses. Maintain Equal-weight rating and $38 price target. Lincoln National Corp. (LNC / NYSE) NEWS The life insurer said it would buy back as much as $600 million of its shares and begin to account for employee stock options as an expense. Pixar Animation Studios (PIXR / Nasdaq) NEWS The animation studio raised its 2002 earnings forecast to between $1.25 and $1.35 a share from $1.15 to $1.25. Pacific Sunwear of CA (PSUN / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros We believe there is upside potential to our EPS estimates, because of recent sales momentum. Reiterate Overweight rating and $28 price target. Pacific Sunwear of CA (PSUN / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read While we are encouraged by growth in the girls business and the recent improvement in boys, we maintain our Hold rating as we remain uncertain about BTS. Qwest Communications Int. (Q / NYSE) Lehman Bros Reducing forecasts to reflect the company's latest warning. Maintain Equal-weight rating, as we believe Qwest will remain FCF positive for the remainder of the year. Qwest Communications Int. (Q / NYSE) QWEST Qwest posted lower than expected 2Q02 results and revised its revenue and EBITDA outlook for 2002. These results and outlook highlight the weakness in its core business. Recurring revenue fell 6% while recurring EBITDA fell 5% from 1Q02 and came in well below our estimates. Competitive and economic pressures were cited as the cause for the decline. We maintain our Hold rating. Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP / NYSE) Lehman Bros Lowering our 2003 earnings estimate to $1.48, because of increasing generic competition for Claritin. Reiterate Underweight rating. Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Cutting EPS estimates to $1.63 in 2002 and $1.36 for next year, to reflect a more conservative stance for Claritin growth. Maintain Overweight rating, but with our new $30 price target. Sonoco Products Company (SONU / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read Sonus announced a 17% workforce reduction to lower its quarterly cash burn rate from $10M per quarter to $7-$8M per quarter. Following these cost cutting measures we have adjusted our 2002 EPS estimate to ($0.22) from ($0.23). Given the continued limited visibility from telecom carriers, we maintain our Hold rating on Sonus and have lowered our 12-month target price to $1.00 from $2.10. We maintain our Hold rating. Sonus (SON / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read Sonus announced a 17% workforce reduction to lower its quarterly cash burn rate from $10M per quarter to $7-$8M per quarter. Following these cost cutting measures we have adjusted our 2002 EPS estimate to ($0.22) from ($0.23). Given the continued limited visibility from telecom carriers, we maintain our Hold rating on Sonus and have lowered our 12-month target price to $1.00 from $2.10. We maintain our Hold rating. Sonoco Products Company (SON / NYSE) Goldman Sachs Sonus's proactive move to reduce operating costs by $2 million a quarter through a 17% headcount reduction will result in the company achieving profitability in 2003 rather than previous expectations of 2004. As a result, we are raising our 2003 EPS estimate to a loss of $0.07 from a loss of $0.15. We continue to rate Sonus shares as a Market Outperformer. Urban Outfitters (URBN / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros Improving our full-year estimate to $1.50 per share, because of solid comp store momentum. Maintain Equal-weight rating and $32 price target. Urban Outfitters (URBN / Nasdaq) Piper Jaffray We are increasing our EPS by a nickel from $0.25 to $0.30, and reducing our price target to $31 form $37. We maintain our Outperform rating. Wendy's International (WEN / NYSE) Goldman Sachs Wendy's strong reported July SSS trends (6% at Wendy's, 5.7% at Tim Hortons Canada, 11.3% at Tim Hortons US) were in-line to slightly higher than prelim indications on 7/25 & are particularly impressive given mixed SSS data among restaurants in July which may point to impact from consumer spending slowdown. We are maintaining our Q3 EPS estimate of $0.52 & FY'02 estimate of $1.93. We reiterate it on our Reccomended list. Whole Foods Market (WFMI / Nasdaq) Piper Jaffray We have raised FY02 estimates from $1.36 to $1.38 and leaving FY03 unchanged at $1.62. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read We expect sales guidance for the second half of the year to be lowered to 4% to 6% from 5% to 7% but full year EPS guidance to remain $1.76 to $1.78. WMT perceived some modest consumer slowing in July including a more pronounced payroll cycle at the end of the month. We maintain our Hold rating. back to top STRATEGY CALLS / MARKET CALLS Warburg Dillon Read (Retail Softlines) ANN - We have raised our 2Q02 EPS estimate from $0.30 to $0.38,our 3Q02 EPS estimate from $0.46 to $0.50, our 2002 EPS estimate from $1.54 to $1.66. LTD - We have raised our 2Q02 EPS estimate from $0.10 to $0.12 and our 2002 EPS estimate from $1.04 to $1.06. ROST - We have raised our 2Q02 EPS estimate from $0.57 to $0.62,our 3Q02 EPS estimate from $0.50 to $0.52, our 4Q02 EPS estimate from $0.70 to $0.72, our 2002 EPS estimate from $2.36 to $2.46, and our 2003 EPS estimate from $2.68 to $2.75.TLB - We have raised our 2Q02 EPS estimate from $0.29 to $0.30 and our 2002 EPS estimate from $2.20 to $2.21. Goldman Sachs (Apparel: Footwear) NKE remains on our Reccommended List; ADSG.F remains Market Outperformer; KSWS and RBK remain Market Performer. Morgan Stanley Co. (Specialty Retail) Raising estimates again for several mall-based retailers, as inventory remains well controlled. Margins remain strong, because of less discounting activity. Morgan Stanley Co. (Oil Equipment & Services) Reducing our estimates and price targets across the board, to reflect a muted recovery. Upgrading ESV to Equal-weight, to bring it in-line with its peers. Morgan Stanley Co. (Metals & Mining) Reducing our estimates for FCX and PD, to reflect weaker copper prices. Inventory and capacity levels remain high. Bear Stearns (Retail) Retailers will begin to report 2Q02 earnings results during the week of Monday, August 12. Based on what we have seen and heard on our extensive store visits and back-to-school shopping tours, we believe that the most wanted piece of information by investors is current sales data given the weaker July results. No retail sub-sector has been immune to the sustained uncertainty of the broader political and economic environment. For example, WMT and WAG - which are typically thought of as more defensive names - have mentioned that sales during the second half of July were trending at the low end of plan. In general we believe that most retailers should still be able to hit their earnings targets given the low levels of markdowns relative to last year and greater focus on expense control. Bear Stearns (Sentiment) SPX 58% BULLISH, NDX 47%, 5 DAY MA 32 AND 29%. PUT/CALLS MIXED: EQUITY DOWN TO .67, INDEX UP TO 1.39. Warburg Dillon Read (Broadlines) The traffic versus ticket argument was also a source of confusion, as some retailers attributed second half weakness to a slowdown in traffic, while others noted that average ticket declines impacted sales. Results by category seem to support the various differences, as the discounters and warehouse clubs experienced the most weakness in discretionary big ticket items, while the department stores generally experienced their strongest sales in big ticket hardlines categories, including furniture at FD and MAY, and appliances at Sears. Bear Stearns (Banks) We are adjusting earnings estimates for Bank One and Wachovia to reflect their decisions to account for employee stock options as an expense. We have lowered our Bank One estimates for 2002 to $2.73 GAAP and $2.80 cash per share and to $3.36 GAAP and $3.43 cash for 2003. We have lowered our 2002 EPS estimates on Wachovia to $2.77 GAAP and $3.08 cash and for 2003, we have brought estimates down to $3.13 GAAP and $3.41 cash. We are adjusting our price target for Bank One to $46 from $47 to reflect the lower earnings expectations. We have increased our target for Wachovia to $37.50 from $36, which implies a 10% discount to the average multiple of 12.6 on the super-regional banks 2003 cash earnings estimates. Bank of America Montgomery (Semiconductors) We continue to advocate a long-term cautious stance, despite an average 49% decline over the past five months. 2003 estimates could prove to be aggressive, as we expect more capex cuts. It's still too early to call a bottom in stock prices. Lehman Bros (Chip Equipment) We see further downside potential. Until estimates come down to historical trough levels, we will remain cautious. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Modificato da - gz on 8/9/2002 16:4:20

riguardo alla discussione sui fondi comuni e anche p.f abbiamo sempre Mediolanum come caso emblematico. Per Morgan Stanley costa 2.5 volte l' "embedded value" - il metro con cui si calcola il valore delle assicurazioni - e questo però è ancora +100% rispetto alla media di settore. Inoltre hai MLP e i principali titoli simili europei che hanno appena avvertito di avere guai e di rivedere le stime e sono stati sbudellati negli ultimi 15 gg di nuovo. Ma il punto cruciale resta che Mediolanum non viene mai valutata sugli utili, ma su questo embedded value che è un artificio contabile e in pratica si accetta quello che la società prevede per i prossimi 15 anni in termini di fedeltà dei clienti - insomma è una scommessa sul fatto che siano stati corretti nel fare queste stime - una bomba a orologeria, a meno che le borse non risalgano ------------------------- breakingviews ------------------------------ Mediolanum: Investors seem to have lost confidence in Mediolanum. Unlike most European asset gatherers, the Italian company has continued expanding healthily in spite of the market downturn. In the first half, its sales of life assurance grew by 58% and its assets under management increased by 9%. Yet Mediolanum's shares have slumped by nearly two-thirds over the past year. The main worry concerns Mediolanum's core pensions business. This has been highly successful at attracting the savings of young Italian professionals - an attractive customer base and one served in other countries by companies such as St James's Place and MLP. The concern is that Mediolanum has been able to make a big impact because it has faced little real competition. Italy remains a very immature market for equity investment. Until recently, Italians mainly invested in government bonds and relied on state pensions. This lack of competition has advantaged Mediolanum. It has been able to grow its business comparatively quickly. On top of that, it has been able to attract high quality customers relatively cheaply. And best of all, it has been able to charge them high fees. The problem is that Mediolanum won't be able to hunt on virgin ground forever. And as the competition ratchets up, it may start to look more like its more leaden-footed European peers. St James's Place and MLP have both recently announced profit warnings. The Milanese group may have to cut its prices. It may also find that its clients, who have for lack of choice been very loyal to date, may start deserting it for its new rivals. This matters a great deal because Mediolanum is a long-term business. Much of its value depends on how much investors think its book of existing business is worth. The rest is based on an estimate of the value of business it may write in the future. Based on guidance from Mediolanum, analysts have concocted a so-called embedded value for its existing book of E2.7 per share. However, this value is based on some pretty Pollyanna-ish assumptions. One is that pension customers will stick with it for as long as 16 years. That's a lifetime, especially when compared to peers in more mature markets. After four years, about half of the fickle policyholders at St James's Place have deserted it. On a more prudent estimate of embedded value, Mediolanum still looks highly valued. Morgan Stanley reckons that the insurer is actually trading at 2.5 times embedded value - a premium of over 100% to the life assurance sector. Mediolanum may justify this racy multiple because of its superior growth prospects. But it cannot be called a value stock, in spite its recent share price decline. Edited by - gz on 8/9/2002 15:35:14

Noto questo strong buy su uno dei titoli israeliani di punta Elbit Systems (ESLT)(come ovvio i titoli israeliani tecnologici quotati al Nasdaq sono stati distrutti anche più della media) e uno strong buy di Merril Lynch su ^Philips#^ (spiace per la formattazione, ma manca il personale in vacanza) --------------------------------------- 346 GMT (Dow Jones) JERUSALEM--CSFB raises Elbit Systems (ESLT) to a strong buy from buy following strong 2Q results and management guidance. Raises '02 EPS forecast to $1.27 from $1.17 (excluding one-time 2Q charge) and '03 EPS to $1.44 from $1.17. Encouraged by strong $52M in operating cash flow in 2Q and trend of rising gross margins. Says defense electronics business is robust while orders backlog supports growth over next two years. At $16.07 Wed Nasdaq close, shares are trading at 10.7x projected '03 EPS, a 30-40% discount to peers. (DAR) 0808 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Delay to Vodafone's (VOD) rollout of 3G mobile would be "highly predictable," improve near-term cash generation, says Bear Stearns. Vodafone has stated 3G capex in FY '03 will be GBP1.8B but GBP1B could be deferred, which could mean cash generation in FY '03 will be GBP3.5B or more. ^Vodafone#^ says Fri's report that no commercial launch of 3G in Europe in '02 is in line with previous statements. Vodafone down 0.3% at 96.25p after higher start. (GRE) 1343 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Vinci (F.VIN) convertible bonds have cheapened recently, says ABN Amro. Adds Vinci '07 and '18 trade wider than longer-dated straight debt and CDS on fair volatility assumptions. Could proved attractive opportunities for fixed income investors looking for yield enhancement and potential equity related upside. (AJM) 1339 GMT (Dow Jones) PRAGUE--Cesky Telecom +1% or CZK2.7 to CZK272 after government agrees to sell 51% stake to Deutsche Bank and TDC for EUR1.82B. But trading volumes very thin and traders see investors afraid to test the water until more details of the contract and strategic plan are revealed in coming weeks. (DL) 1339 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--AXA (AXA) bonds are about 5bp better bid after 1H results came in as expected. AXA's 6% '13 bond was last seen at govt +150bp. Generally better tone to sector, but flows still subdued, dealers say. (NMK) 1318 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Merrill Lynch upgrades ^Philips#^ (PHG) to strong buy from buy. Says despite share's fall it has a number of high quality, cash-generative, stable businesses. Earnings weigh but Merrill says this is priced in. Sees combined value of the stable businesses and stakes portfolio to be worth more than the entire enterprise value of company. So at current share price, EUR21.06, +2.7%, effectively get the economically sensitive ones - semicons, consumer elecs, components - for free. Lowers 12Mo target to EUR31 from EUR33, leaving more than 60% upside. (CHP) 1310 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein upgrades Bouygues (F.BOU) to hold from reduce, following solid 1H revenue and stable average revenue per user at mobile unit Bouygues Telecom. "Although the conglomerate structure is unchanged, the valuation is now more compelling." Gives share price target of EUR24, based on sum of the parts. Shares +4.8% at EUR23.05. (VLV) 1301 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Zuercher Kantonalbank likes Serono's (SRA) drug deal with Genentech (DNA) because Swiss company's own pipeline doesn't look set to deliver any new drugs to market before '06. Still, Raptiva, formerly known as Xanelim, has been delayed a number of times because of production problems. Roche (RHHBY) also passed on chance to in-license the drug. Serono shares +4.5% at CHF774. (CCS) 1253 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--FTSE 100 steady to slightly lower after US PPI, jobless data beats expectations. FTSE +2.3% at 4188.4. Numbers should build on currently improving sentiment, say traders. However, if lower PPI is converted into lower consumer prices, it'll raise deflationary concerns further. Another group of traders looks for break above 4200 before turning more optimistic on equities. (HGT) 1254 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN--Mediaset's (I.MEI) plan to list Telecinco by '07 and option to add 10% to its 40% stake in the Spanish broadcaster is "strategically defensive and the minimum acquisition price appears reasonable," says DrKW. Favors near-term switch to Mediaset from TF1, Prosieben. Keeps at hold with EUR8.5 target. Shares +2.6% to EUR6.77. (BJL) 1252 GMT (Dow Jones) BRUSSELS--Barco (B.BAE) +8.5% to EUR44.50 on news that it has bought two virtual reality companies - Germany's TAN Projektionstechnologie and Switzerland's TAN. It has 98% share of the German market, and 65% of the global market. "There are good opportunities for synergies with Barco's projection business," says Gert de Mesure, an analyst at Delta Lloyd. He sees growth opportunities in Asia and North America. Analysts are frustrated at lack of financial details on the deal. But remain confident that Barco didn't over pay. Barco is due to release 2Q results on Aug 28. "We think Barco will make its targets," says Mesure. (VEK) 1251 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Axa +2.1% at EUR12.40, but gives up some early gains after insurer posts 4.8% rise in 1H revenue but fails to enlighten market on size of provisions it needs to cover asset depreciation. Wargny analyst says volatility suggests market is hitting at shadows, notes that shares are still trading below net asset value. (DGP) 1248 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Lehman Brothers lowers FKI to underweight from buy on previous rating system. Sees weakening earnings momentum for next 12Mos-18Mos and its valuation being at a premium to peers. Sees little catalyst for a rebound. Lehman lowers '03 pretax profit by 21% to GBP81M, '04 by 27% to GBP99M. Expects FKI to report recurring EPS of 10p in 03, 11.8p in 04. Shares +1.1% at 112.25p, underperforming FTSE 100, +2.5% at 4197.1. (CHP) Modificato da - gz on 8/9/2002 10:56:16

il 90% degli investitori che opera "in proprio" in borsa dedica all'investimento di 5 o 10 mila euro meno tempo di quello che dedica alla preparazione di una cena o dell' acquisto di un motorino. In genere segue l'ispirazione, magari lo spunto di qualcun altro e qualche minuto di "lavoro". Mio padre che pure è persona cauta in affari, abbonato a 24 ore, a contatto con la realtà economica per mestiere, ha sempre comprato in borsa sulla base di ispirazioni o intuizioni di qualche minuto. Se uno da retta a una raccomandazione apparsa su un forum di un post con nickname che dice "..compra questo...stop..." e poi perde non può lamentarsi. Ha compiuto un atto di fede e verrà ricompensato in paradiso, ma (a meno di un mercato molto toro) non su questa terra. Se invece si trova una raccomandazione motivata e dettagliata e che in quanto tale ha suscitato una discussione in cui altri hanno formulato obiezioni o critiche (come è stato per Americredit o Tradestation) allora nel seguire la raccomandazione chi lo fa opera "a occhi aperti", sa almeno in parte cosa sta facendo, ha alcuni elementi per giudicare il rischio e il guadagno potenziali. Anche senza esperti di bilancio o economia o di grafici, seguire una discussione come alcune che ci sono state qui su dei titoli, offre un idea, PRIMA di prima impegnare i propri soldi, di quello a cui si può andare incontro. Il sito che preferisco al momento è realmoney per la borsa perchè lì spesso senti delle discussioni in cui persone di opinione opposta dicono molto bene o molto male di un titolo e dal contrasto di opinioni mi faccio un idea migliore. Modificato da - gz on 8/9/2002 9:51:9

banshee quello che uno scrive su un forum e quello che uno fa nella realtà non coincidono necessariamente Ad ogni modo su Americredit massimo ha suggerito un buy che faceva il +50% due mesi fa (me lo ricordo) e ora uno che è sotto del 50% e comunque ha spiegato il perchè e il percome intanto lei continua a scrivere che il deficit pubblico americano è mostruoso quando i) è il più basso in % del PIL degli ultimi 30 anni e ii) il più basso del mondo occidentale, in pratica se c'è una cosa che proprio nessuno, nemmeno i più iettatori mai citano è il deficit pubblico. Sembra come in politica che se uno ha deciso di essere negativo poi qualunque argomento fa brodo. Ecco invece l'analisi di Ken Fisher, che gestisce 10 miliardi di dollari e che ha sempre battutto gli indici del 5% in media negli ultimi 20 anni. E' stato negativo per due anni e ora torna in azioni. Spiega che preoccuparsi del fatto che il P/E delle azioni è elevato non ha senso perchè è normale che sia alto quando l'economia è debole come quest'anno. Chi vogli i dettagli dello studio di Fischer che dimostra questo deve andare nel ^Journal of Portfolio Management#www.iijpm.com^, Fall 2000 ---------------------- Ken Fisher TORO ora ---------------- ratios look too high? The market's highest P/Es ever were in 1920, 1932 and 1982, three of the five best times to buy in the last century. In shifting last month from bearish to bullish I was clearly too early. But I'm content. Investors are fearful. Many folks foresee a foul future. Few fathom fantastic returns. In my 30-year investment career, and in the history I've studied, such times have always rewarded, if not immediately, then before many months pass. When I point out that this bear market has been the longest (and second biggest) since World War II, I'm lectured by folks who never foresaw this bear market yet who now cite many well-publicized reasons that the bottom isn't here yet. I like that. They cite causality that was never valid and the reasons it will be different this time. Note John Templeton's legendary phrase that the world's four most dangerous words are: "It's different this time." It never is. It just feels that way. At and around bottoms people clutch at ghoulish visions while praying to craven mythology that never was realistic. This time, for example, many cite the market's high P/E, fretting further that it is higher now than in early 2000. All true--and normal. The market's P/E usually is higher at a bear market bottom than its prior peak because as a rule earnings disappear faster than stock prices. Counterintuitive, but history shows there is simply nothing about P/E levels, cut any way you want, to help predict market tops or bottoms, or market levels several years out. That we believe otherwise is mythology. If you want more on this, see my Fall 2000 Journal of Portfolio Management article (co-written with Meir Statman), "Cognitive Errors in Market Forecasts." Nor does finance theory suggest the P/Es should be predictive. Theory would have you flip it on its head, as an E/P, the earnings yield, and compare that with interest rates. Hereto, nothing much is revealed. For example, the E/P divided by the 90-day T bill rate is boringly in the middle of its historic range. P/Es often skyrocket around bottoms and thereafter because of all the writedowns. Correctly calculated, the market's highest P/Es ever were in 1920, 1932 and 1982, three of the five best times to buy in the last century. Some folks want the bad news to slow down before the market bottoms. It never has worked that way, so it won't now. More accounting scandals? Sure. Will they stop a bull market? No. We've been here before, just not recently. Investors fear terrorists and war. Nothing new here. At all. Nuclear war? Old idea. The last time around we were worried about the Soviets--and didn't know that they lacked the thrust power to hit us. But we know the rogue states lack it. Dirty bombs? They were always possible. No one says the truth, that the terrorists we so fear are amazingly incompetent. So they got one lucky strike on us. Name one thing they do well that threatens us. Just ghoulish visions. If all the globe's suicide bombers targeted only American shopping malls from now on, we should rationally be much more frightened of our drunk drivers. I see very nice returns in 2003 and 2004. The question is: Exactly where is the bottom? Most folks now say later rather than sooner, so I suspect it will be sooner. A bull market now would surprise more investors than a bad market. And if I'm wrong? You'll pay a small penalty for being a little too early, but someone who buys a little too late will pay the same penalty. Both sides of the bottom of a "V" look pretty similar 6 to 12 months later. Buy stocks like: Modificato da - gz on 8/8/2002 22:16:56

nel caso qualcuno fosse preoccupato e si chiedesse: " cosa fanno ora i sistemi ?" ecco la situazione: ebbene il momentum dell'advance decline stava per passare negativo, ma poi è rimasto positivo, il sistema è ancora al rialzo sugli S&P la cosa interessante è che ci sono stati alzuni zig-zag difficili negli ultimi due giorni ma questo tipo di "frequenza di segnale" li smussa e li evita. Per ora alles gut.

gli indici americani stanno un poco recuperando, nonostante notizie chiarissime dal fronte con l'irak. Sono usciti altri piani di invasione sul NY Times il 2 agosto e anche su Debka. Ieri Schroeder diceva di no all'intervento, ieri l'altro gli inglesi si mettevano d'accordo con Gheddafi, oggi Saddam era su tutti i telegiornali con dichiarazioni ecc... La sostanza è però che ci sono già gli ingegneri e le truppe speciali americani all'INTERNO dell'Iraq al lavoro per preparare i campi di atterraggio. E la reazione del mercato non è negativa. -------------------------------------------------------------------- US Preparations for Iraq Offensive From DEBKA-Net-Weekly August 2 In total hush, the US has embarked on advance preparations deep inside Iraq for the coming offensive against Baghdad. In northern Iraq, these preparations are in the form of crash engineering projects. According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources, US army engineers and equipment are working round the clock in the Kurdish regions of northern Iraq to throw up a series of six to eight small airfields that will cater to the main body of American and Turkish forces when they cross over into Iraq. The new fields, some of which are no more than widened landing strips, will also serve the fighter planes and helicopters providing a vanguard of special forces with air cover. The airfields are strung along three strategic axes. Axis 1 , or the western axis, starts in the northern Kurdish city of Zako and stretches southwest along the Iraqi border with Syria to the city of Sinjar, west of the oil city of Mosul. Axis 2 , or the central axis, stretches from Zako south to the Kurdish-controlled city of Irbil, located between the two main Iraqi oil cities of the north – Mosul and Kirkuk. The airfields now under construction are points on the axis. Axis 3, or the eastern axis, stretches from Irbil to Sulimaniyeh, the Kurdish power and government hub in northern Iraq. DEBKA-Net-Weekly ’s military experts report that work on the air bases is almost finished and the facilities are practically ready for limited use by US or Turkish warplanes and helicopters. They are going up under the noses of Iraqi armored divisions deployed along the Lesser Zab and Greater Zab rivers. Although the American engineers pose as personnel working for Kurdish construction contracting firms, Iraqi air and ground reconnaissance units almost certainly know what’s up, but have so far made no move to interfere with the work. Edited by - gz on 8/8/2002 17:45:30

La rassegna delle azioni degli Analisti Americani di realmoney di oggi notare la chiamata negativa su ^Americredit#^ quella negativa su ^KCIN#^ (ahi ahi...) degli strong buy ripetuti su ^AEOS#^ e ^Citigroup#^ (ok...) e per chi è pessimista ecco un bel buy su Corrections Corp. of Amer (^CXW#^ / NYSE) la società che gestisce dozzine di prigioni (per chi non lo sapesse in america molte sono gestite ada privati) CHANGE IN RATINGS AmeriCredit Corp. (ACF / NYSE) Goldman Sachs AmeriCredit Corp. we are lowering our estimates and is now a Market Performer. Apria Healthcare Group (AHG / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We are initiating coverage of Apria Healthcare Group w/ Market Outperform rating & $27 price target. Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Initiating coverage with an Underweight rating and $16 price target. Anecdotal evidence from Phase II trials of the company's lead product are positive, but anti-inflammatory drugs have rarely been successful. We could turn positive again in November. Aon Corporation (AOC / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read Aon reported significantly lower than expected 2Q02 EPS, on an adjusted basis, of $0.13 vs. $0.44 and below our estimate of $0.48 and consensus of $0.50. The primary factors behind the lower results were: lower operating margins in insurance brokerage, lower operating margins in consulting; and lower underwriting income associated with higher reserves for the NPS pending litigation. We are dongrading AOC to a Hold rating. Aon Corporation (AOC / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Cutting our estimates and price target to $40 per share, following the company's earnings shortfall. We now expect AOC to earn $1.30 per share. We see further risks to the company's goodwill balance, ratings, dividend, and investment balance. Maintain Equal-weight rating. Aeropostale, Inc. (ARO / NYSE) Merrill Lynch We are raising our rating from Buy to Strong Buy for a number of reasons. We think that ARO has positioned itself well to sustain strong sales momentum through the back to school season thanks to strong fall product sales. The company has a lower price point and can attract sales in a slowdown and the stock already discounts a potential slowdown in sales. Valuation is also very attractive. July same store sales increased 4.3% and we are increasing our 2002 and 2003 estimates by $0.01 each. Our price target is $20. Cross Country (CCRN / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney We are lowering our rating on CCRN shares to an Outperform from a Buy, and lowering our price target to $17 from $38, based upon questions we have regarding disappointing FTE growth and the apparent lack of visibility from CCRN. Although the stock appears cheap, at 6.5x 2003 EBITDA and 11.5x 2003 EPS, we do not feel we can maintain our 1H rating due to questions surrounding the source of weakness for lower FTE count and the lack of visibility. Corrections Corp. of Amer (CXW / NYSE) Lehman Bros Initiating coverage with an Overweight rating and $19 price target. We believe the need to outsource to private prisons remains high, and that the company can grow in the double-digits for the foreseeable future. Ecolab (ECL / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We are downgrading our investment rating on Ecolab from Market Outperformer to Market Performer based solely on valuation. We upgraded the shares just three weeks ago late in the day on July 18, 2002, after an uncharacteristic sharp slide in the share price. Our upgrade was based on what we saw as compelling value for this very high quality franchise company. GTECH Holdings Corp. (GTK / NYSE) Merrill Lynch We are lowering our rating on GTK from Strong Buy to Buy. We are concerned with the value of the Brazilian Real, the potential downsizing of the company's Brazilian lottery contract and the aggressive pricing on the California lottery contract. We do remain positive on the stock as Bruce Turner is returning as CEO, domestic same-store sales should remain solid and the company maintains its focus on cost cutting. Hispanic Broadcasting (HSP / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Downgrading our rating to Equal-weight, with a $27 price target. The company's proposed merger partner reduced its growth expectations for the Hispanic TV market. Lincare Holdings (LNCR / Nasdaq) Goldman Sachs We have initiated coverage of LNCR with a Market Outperformer rating and a price target of $36 per share. Univision Communications (UVN / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Downgrading our rating to Equal-weight, with a $32 price target. Also cutting EBITDA estimates, to reflect the company's reduced outlook to for the Hispanic TV industry. Univision Communications (UVN / NYSE) NEWS The Spanish-language television broadcaster said in a statement that, excluding certain expenses, it expects third-quarter profit of 5 cents to 8 cents a share. It was expected to earn 13 cents, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by First Call. WMS Industries (WMS / NYSE) Goldman Sachs We are changing our rating on WMS from a negative Market Underperform to a more neutral Market Perform. back to top STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES Advance Auto Parts (AAP / NYSE) Lehman Bros We believe late-quarter sales momentum will drive second quarter results 4-6 cents above our official 71-cent estimate. Reiterate Overweight rating. American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Reducing estimates and price target to $32 per share, to match the company's poor July results. Comp sales fell 5%, despite heavy markdowns. We now expect AEOS to earn $1.38 this year and $1.60 in fiscal 2004. Maintain Overweight rating, based on valuation. American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read We are revising our 2Q02 EPS estimate from $0.18 to $0.15 based on a revised 2Q02 comp of (5.5)% and lower gross margin than previously modeled. We continue to believe that an optimal time to buy specialty retail shares is in weakness following a fashion misstep. We reiterate our Strong Buy on shares of AEOS. Applied Materials (AMAT / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Lowering estimates and price target to $18 per share, as we expect the company's to lower forward guidance on next week's earnings call. Order pushouts are likely from the backlog. Maintain Overweight rating, but we now expect AMAT to earn $0.16 this year. Avnet (AVT / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Cutting our 2003 estimate to $0.50 per share, as the company now expects flat sales and margins in the third quarter. Business is stable, but does not look ready for an upturn. Maintain Overweight rating and $30 price target. Claire's Stores (CLE / NYSE) NEWS The retailer raised its profit estimate for the second quarter ended Aug. 3, saying it expects to report earnings of more than 23 cents a share, according to a statement distributed by PR Newswire. The company is forecast to earn 23 cents, the average estimate of three analysts polled by Thomson First Call. Clorox Company (CLX / NYSE) Goldman Sachs Trends Suppt Our View of Cont`d Benefits From Cost Reduction, there is an upside likely, we continue to rate it a Market Outperform. Clorox Company (CLX / NYSE) Lehman Bros Raising our 2003 estimate to $2.12 per share, to reflect the company's higher reported gross margins. Maintain Underweight rating. Citigroup (C / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Revising our EPS estimates to $2.88 in fiscal 2002 and $3.32 for next year, to reflect the Travelers' spinoff and muted market conditions. Maintain Strong Buy rating. Dean Foods Co. (DF / NYSE) NEWS The U.S. dairy company said 2002 profit would be $2.75 to $2.78 a share, better than previously estimated. The company is forecast to earn $2.64 this year, the average estimate from eight analysts polled by First Call. Brinker International (EAT / NYSE) Morgan Stanley Co. Trimming our price target to $34 per share, to reflect current market valuations. June quarter results were essentially in-line with expectations. Maintain Overweight rating. Factory 2-U Stores (FTUS / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read We are lowering our 2Q02 EPS estimate to $(0.35) from $(0.20), implying a new 2002 EPS estimate of $(0.19), due to gross margin pressure resulting from an additional coupon promotion in the latter half of July and added labor costs. We are lowering our 2Q02 EPS estimate and reiterate our Hold rating. We are also lowering our target price to $9 from $15. Factory 2-U Stores (FTUS / Nasdaq) NEWS The discount retailer said in a statement that it had a net loss of 33 cents to 36 cents a share in the second quarter ended Aug. 3. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by First Call was for a loss of 19 cents. Hollywood Casino Corp. (HWD / AMEX) NEWS Hollywood Casino rose as high as $12.20 in after- hours trading. Penn National Gaming said in a statement that it agreed to buy the casino operator for $12.75 a share in cash. KPMG Consulting (KCIN / Nasdaq) Lehman Bros Lowering our estimates and price target to $11 per share. Reiterate Underweight rating, until the downward EPS revisions subside. Mid Atlantic Medical Svcs (MME / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read Mid-Atlantic Medical reported second quarter EPS of $0.44, well ahead of our estimate of $0.37 and last year's $0.30 due to better than expected membership growth and administrative cost controls, in addition to premium rate increases. We are raising our 2002 and 2003 EPS estimates to $1.89 and $2.23, from $1.82 and $2.10, respectively. We are maintaining our 12-month target price of $41. We reiterate our Strong Buy rating. Monsanto Company (MON / NYSE) NEWS Standard & Poor's said in a statement that the maker of agricultural products will replace hand-held computer maker Palm Inc. in the S&P 500 Index after the close of trading Tuesday. Nabors Industries (NBR / AMEX) Morgan Stanley Co. Lowering EPS estimates to $0.88 in 2002 and $1.42 for next year, reflecting deteriorating core drilling fundamentals. Maintain Overweight rating, as NBR should be able to outperform its peers. Protein Design Labs (PDLI / Nasdaq) Salomon Smith Barney Last night, after market close, PDLI reported a loss of $0.01 per share, a penny lower than our breakeven estimate and in line with consensus. We continue to believe the stock will likely trade sideways until new management is hired and positive pipeline events are announced. In our opinion, we believe current price levels are representative of the value of royalty stream and the cash assets of the company. Maintain Outperform rating. Principal Financial (PFG / Nasdaq) Credit Suisse First Boston Reducing EPS estimates to $2.14 in fiscal 2002 and $2.40 for next year, to reflect options expense and the weaker equity markets. The company used most of its $450 million repurchase program during the quarter, and we expect a new tranche to be announced soon. Maintain Hold rating, with our new $30 price target. Prudential (PRU / Nasdaq) Goldman Sachs We lowered our 02E to $2.15 to reflect the weak equity markets and low retail trading volume. We are lowering our 03E to $2.60 from $2.72, to reflect a more realistic view of an equity market recovery from low 02 levels, and a more cautious view on the P&C business. We have revised our 3Q02E and 4Q02E EPS to $0.51 and $0.52 respectively. We continue to believe PRU offers the best risk/reward opportunity in the life space. Patterson-UTI Energy Inc (PTEN / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Moderating our EPS estimates to reflect more conservative rig utilizations and margins. Maintain Overweight rating, and we expect PTEN to outperform its peers through the next upcycle. Qwest Communications Int. (Q / NYSE) NEWS Qwest Communications, which last week disclosed more than $1 billon in accounting errors, posted its ninth-straight quarterly loss and is seeking a new bank loan at its phone-book unit. The biggest local-phone company in 14 western U.S. states also lowered its 2002 sales forecast by about $1 billion to as little as $17.1 billion, Qwest said in a statement distributed by PR Newswire. The telephone company also said Banc of America Securities LLC agreed to act as sole arranger and book runner for a proposed $500 million senior secured credit facility at the company's QwestDex unit. Smithfield Foods (SFD / NYSE) Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Reducing estimates and price target to $18 per share. The company will now likely earn $1.20 in 2003, as the lingering protein glut is being coupled with higher feed trends. Maintain Market Perform rating. TMP Worldwide (TMPW / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Reducing estimates and price target to $13 per share, to match the company's new guidance. We believe our call for profits of $0.60 this year and $0.75 in 2003, will prove to be conservative because of cost-cutting. Maintain Overweight rating. Urban Outfitters (URBN / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read We continue to rate the shares Buy in light of recent weakness. We believe that Urban Outfitters operates uniquely positioned retail brands with differentiated "lifestyle-driven" offerings that target customers in compelling demographics. In addition, the company's unique store designs and innovative management structure contribute to appealing stores for consumers and landlords. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney Core performance was solid during the quarter, with same store office EBITDA growth of 4.6% and internal growth of 4.2% from the Merchandise Mart assets. However, US Air, and Warnaco as well as substantial lease expirations in Washington D.C. will prove a challenge in the year ahead. The company did not raise the dividend in the third quarter as expected, suggesting that they are revisiting their full year earnings. We are lowering our 2002 FFO per share estimate by $0.23 to $3.80 and our 2003 estimate by $0.25 to $4.30. We are lowering our price target from $50 to $44. Maintain Buy rating. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO / NYSE) Lehman Bros Reducing FFO estimates to match the company's new guidance. We now expect the company to earn $3.98 this year and $4.30 in fiscal 2003. Maintain Underweight rating. Whole Foods Market (WFMI / Nasdaq) Warburg Dillon Read Following another exceptionally upbeat conference call and new guidance from the company, we are raising our earnings estimates for WFMI to $1.39 (from $1.36) for 2002 and to $1.65 (from $1.63) for 2003. We maintain our Buy rating and $50 12-month price target. Whole Foods Market (WFMI / Nasdaq) Morgan Stanley Co. Raising EPS estimates through fiscal 2004, to match the company's new guidance. WFMI seems to be unscathed by the tough operating environment affecting the industry. Reiterate Overweight rating and $56 price target. Winn-Dixie Stores (WIN / NYSE) NEWS The food retailer said in a release distributed by PR Newswire that, excluding certain expenses, it would have had a profit of 37 cents a share in the fourth quarter ended June 26. It was expected to earn 32 cents, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by First Call. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT / NYSE) Salomon Smith Barney We project that earnings per share will rise to $0.44 versus $0.37 last year, below consensus estimates of $0.45, and representing 18.9% growth. Our forecast for strong earnings growth, which may even be conservative, is a reflection of significant market share gains across businesses and regions. Reiterate Buy rating. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT / NYSE) NEWS Wal-Mart Stores, the world's largest retailer, said sales at stores open at least a year rose a less-than-expected 4.5 percent in July. The company had projected an increase of 5 percent to 7 percent. Second-quarter profit will meet or exceed its forecast of 44 cents to 45 cents a share, the company said in a statement. Wal-Mart had less summer items to sell in July after consumers snapped up items such as apparel and barbecues earlier in the season, the company said in a recorded call. Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI / NYSE) Warburg Dillon Read Watson reported 2Q02 EPS of $0.41, beating our estimate of $0.40 and consensus of $0.39. Results were driven by continued strength in the Women's Health branded business. Although, Barr Labs is offering some competiton. In addition, Watson confirmed that it met with the FDA at the end of May regarding the Oxytrol patch and will re-submit its NDA in the upcoming weeks (approximately two months behind schedule). Our '02 EPS estimate of $1.60 is unchanged, but we are lowering our 2003 EPS estimate from $1.80 to $1.75. We maintain our Hold rating. back to top STRATEGY CALLS / MARKET CALLS Credit Suisse First Boston (Apparel) All six of the companies in our coverage reported better than expected June quarter results. Core sales are declining, but these firms are improving margins and turning around struggling units. Maintain Overweight position. Warburg Dillon Read (Paper) Despite the lower OCC prices, we still think that the containerboard price increase will fully go through ($30 per ton linerboard increase and $40 per ton corrugated medium increase). We continue to like the containerboard area and favor Weyerhaeuser (Strong Buy) and Temple-Inland (Strong Buy) as plays. We also like the boxboard industry and recommend Caraustar (Buy). Warburg Dillon Read (Biotech) UBSW is initiating coverage of the folloiwing companies with a Buy rating: Vertex (VRTX) PT: $22.00, Leicon Genetics (LEXG), PT: $8.00, Myriad Genetics (MYGN) PT: $31.00, Millennium Pharmaceuticals (MLNM) PT: $19.00, Human Genome (HGSI) PT: $21. In addition they are initiating coverage on the following companies with a Hold rating: Celera Genomics (CRA) PT: $11.00 and Incyte (INCY) PT: $6.00 Goldman Sachs (REIT's) We are raising ests for CBL & GGP; We are lowering ests for GRT; and there is no change for RSE,SPG & TCO. Goldman Sachs (Aluminum) We are reducing our aluminum price and AA and AL EPS estimates to reflect weaker economic recovery. Morgan Stanley Co. (Auto Retailers) We expect the auto parts retailers to post second quarter results in-line or above expectations. AAP is our favorite stock in the group, and we have raised estimates. AZO is the leader in the space, and should also post solid results. back to top ECONOMICS Jobless Claims (wk8/3, 2002) Producer Price Index(Jul, 2002) Money Aggregates (wk7/29, 2002) Modificato da - gz on 8/8/2002 15:37:45

la cosa straordinaria del rapporto mediobanca, l'unico che faccia questa analisi in italia, è che praticamente ogni anno riassume la situazione delle aziende italiane principali in questo modo: il costo medio del capitale è l'8% (ad es quest'anno) e il rendimento medio sul capitale investito il 5%. Quindi il saldo totale di 1600 aziende italiane analizzate è che si è distrutto valore per, ad es quest'anno, 10 miliardi di euro. La cosa curiosa è che ci si preoccupa molto e solo dell'america e del fatto che guadagnino o meno le aziende americane, ma in un paese come l'italia le aziende medio grandi costano di più di quello che rendono e se va bene pareggiano. Ed è sempre stato così, anche negli anni d'oro della borsa. Poi dicono che la valutazione del mercato e il P/E è quello che conta. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Rapporto Mediobanca: nel 2001 le industrie hanno distrutto valore per 10 miliardi di euro MILANO - Industrie deboli. Che investono molto nella finanza, poco nel loro futuro. E si ritrovano, adesso, un doppio conto da pagare. Vendono meno sui mercati internazionali. E però non «compensano» più su altri fronti: il pessimo vento delle Borse colpisce in pieno anche qui. Risultato: gli utili ne escono dimezzati, il capitale finisce per costare più di quel che rende. Per gli azionisti, in altre parole, non c’è creazione, ma distruzione di valore. LA FRENATA - Non è brillante, quest’anno, la tradizionale fotografia scattata da Mediobanca all’industria italiana. Non così drammatica come la congiuntura poteva lasciar pensare, ma certamente nemmeno rassicurante. Perché quel che ne esce (e il campione è più che rappresentativo: i «Dati cumulativi di 1925 società italiane» coprono all’incirca la metà dell’universo aziendale italiano) è un Paese il cui sistema produttivo marcia a due velocità. E con evidenti problemi strutturali. Da una parte c’è il terziario, che continua a svilupparsi e a produrre buoni utili. Dall’altra l’industria in senso stretto, che invece non appare in buona salute. Cosicché si può certo dire che l’azienda Italia, nel complesso, tiene. Che, anzi, continua a crescere. Ma quel fatturato 2001 che appare in aumento del 3,3% (contro il 17,7% dell’anno precedente) nasconde due diverse realtà: disaggregando i dati del campione, gli analisti di Mediobanca mostrano un terziario che arriva al 14,2% (comunque in leggero rallentamento rispetto al 17,4% nel 2000) e un’industria che è invece ferma allo 0,8% (era al 17,8 un anno fa). E se il mercato interno, tutto sommato, non va malissimo come si temeva (il fatturato-Italia mantiene un »3,8% dopo il boom del 18,1% nel 2000), la spia si accende sul fronte export: l’incremento, rispetto a un anno fa, è stato di appena l’1,8%. UTILI DAL TERZIARIO - Il trend non cambia con gli altri indicatori. A partire dalla redditività. C’è un crollo, generalizzato, degli utili netti: dai 20,664 miliardi registrati nel 2000 ai 9,913 archiviati nel 2001 ne sono stati bruciati la metà (-52% il dato esatto). E se è vero che qui, dove è forte l’effetto del cambiamento di segno delle partite straordinarie (attive un anno fa, passive ora), non ci sono sensibili differenze tra industria e terziario, il dualismo torna marcato quando si passa ad analizzare il risultato corrente. L’industria continua a perdere, in sostanza, il terziario migliora. E non di poco: tra gli 8 miliardi del 2000 e i 9,141 del 2001 c’è un incremento che arriva al 14,2%. È ancora un’ottima performance. Non basta, tuttavia, a compensare il -12,3% (da 20,361 a 17,866 miliardi) sopportato dall’industria. E la conseguenza è che, se i dati della gestione «ordinaria» tengono e sono di gran lunga migliori rispetto al crollo degli utili netti, anche qui la media finale si presenta con un calo: l’intero campione Mediobanca chiude con una flessione: -4,8% rispetto ai 28,367 miliardi del 2000. FINANZA E DEBITI - Non è un «male» nuovo, ma si è accentuato ancora di più. Le imprese italiane - e qui il discorso è generalizzato - mostrano in media una scarsa propensione a investimenti strettamente industriali (resta sempre elevato il tasso di sostituzione degli impianti, 46% nel triennio 1999-2001, ma c’è un rallentamento all’1,6% della spesa per investimenti tecnici, scesi a un quarto del livello di dieci anni fa). È così la finanza che continua ad assorbire la fetta maggiore degli impieghi: ben il 62% del totale, cifra che va in parallelo alla crescita di un indebitamento «agevolato» dai bassi tassi d’interesse e arrivato a superare i 60 miliardi. CAPITALI IN ROSSO - Tanta finanza a scapito dell’industria non ha intaccato, con l’inversione di tendenza sui mercati borsistici, soltanto la possibilità di aumentare gli utili con plusvalenze e poste straordinarie. Ha pesanti riflessi strutturali. E finisce col risentirne, inevitabilmente, anche il capitale. Il cui rendimento al netto delle imposte, secondo i dati Mediobanca, è di poco superiore al 5%. Il costo però è intorno all’8%. Risultato: distruzione secca di valore. E non per poco: dieci miliardi. Edited by - gz on 8/8/2002 11:12:6

Moreland ha un servizio che calcola quanto comprano gli insiders (management e azionisti di controllo) delle azioni della propria società e per la prima volta da non so quanto la media a 4 settimane degli acquisti è salita di colpo

Moreland ha un servizio che calcola quanto comprano gli insiders (management e azionisti di controllo) delle azioni della propria società e per la prima volta da non so quanto la media a 4 settimane degli acquisti è salita di colpo

Di tutto quello che passa per i terminali oggi vedo qui i rumor su chi compri Fiat ai blocchi, un paio di upgrade di titoli svedesi industriali come Electrolux e SAS e uno olandese, un upgrade o due di Vivendi environment insomma il tono non è malissimo 0803 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Liquidity crunch remains ^Vivendi Universal#^'s (V) most pressing problem, with all current talk about asset sales reflecting lack of "preconceived ideas" new management has on how to restructure business, says S&P analyst Guy Deslondes. No surprise that Vivendi Universal and its banks taking time to come up with new credit facility given need to rework terms of existing credit lines, but company still needs "several billion euros" in extra credit by Oct. Shares +4.3% at EUR15.71. (MJC) 8 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN-- ^Fiat#^ (FIA) +3.4% to EUR10.22 on average volume of 1.5B shares traded amid speculation concerning who's been buying shares in blocks. Three traders say it boils down to this: Either Fiat holders - possibly IFI (I.IFI), IFIL (I.IFL), Deutsche Bank (DB), or Lafico - sold in the downturn and are now recovering at historic lows, or somebody is staging a takeover bid. While they say at these prices Fiat is certainly a target, all three agree the former is more likely. (BJL) 1344 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--SAS (S.SAI) +13% at SEK70 after cost cuts and 2Q pretax profit by far beat analysts' estimates. SAS 1H savings reach SEK2.350B. "This looks very good and increases the confidence in SAS' ability to live up to its (earnings) forecast," says analyst who'd predicted cost cuts of around SEK800M. SAS now sees FY pre-tax profit after previously expecting a loss. 2Q pretax shot up to SEK1.039B vs SEK180B. Consensus was for SEK363M. There were No exceptionals in 2Q. (MAK) 1338 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM--ING Financial Markets ups Randstad (N.RDN) to hold from sell after 2Q earnings exceeded expectations, reflecting management regaining control, implying Randstad's loss of market share should be over now. Notes at '03 EV/EBITDA estimate of 5.8x, company seems to be undervalued but adds that a double dip in the business cycle is a certain risk. Shares +3% at EUR9.07. (MFV) 1335 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Although Iberdrola (E.IBR)/Repsol (REP) exchangeable bond has cheapened and offers reasonably good value it will suffer from a lack of obvious buyers given current low stock sensitivity and CDS levels, says ABN Amro. Sees implied bond value at 97.01%, implied delta 12.7%, implied credit spread 130bps over swaps. However, it "falls between two stools, with too much option value to make sense as pure fixed income play and lack of competitive CDS offers making it too expensive as low delta arbitrage play." (AJM) 1333 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Sarasin forecasts Disetronic (Z.DIH) to report Wed 1Q sales rise of 11% to CHF82.8 million after adjusting for divestment of Pharmaceutical Packaging Systems. Doesn't expect negative surprises but remains cautious on significant recovery of largest division, Infusion Systems. Says figures will be key since they should point toward timid recovery of US demand for insulin pump therapy. (ALI) 1314 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--WestLB upgrades Standard Chartered (U.STA) to buy from neutral. Cites "very strong set of numbers" Wed, driven by 6% increase in revenue, 2% fall in costs. "Standard Chartered has the strongest long-term growth profile of any UK bank," WestLB says. Target price of 914.9p likely to fall owing to unfriendly forex moves, it adds. Stock still FTSE 100's biggest gainer Wed, +8.9% at 663p. (JMG) 1313 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS-- ^Vivendi#^ Universal (V) +5.4% at EUR16.29. Rebound probably more linked to short-covering than news reports that it may sell its videogames arm, says London-based analyst. "The little bit of positive newsflow was an excuse to cover the shorts," he says. Questions EUR2B price tag for videogames business. Calls stock undervalued. (CMW) 1301 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Lehman Brothers reiterates Outperform rating on Vivendi Environnement (VE) on company's fundamentals in wake of capital increase, rights issue. Notes "impressive growth" in US water operations. Sees '03 debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.3x, gearing at 149% including Southern Water. Says stock trades at discount of 15% to issue price, 53% to EUR34.50 target; +0.7% at EUR24.36. (CMW) 1259 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM--Analyst estimates ^Philips#^' (PHG) sale of CSI operations to Bosch (G.BSH) at around EUR150M to EUR200M. "For these kinds of activities, you can expect a sale price of around half of total sales to slightly more," analyst says. Likely Philips makes small profit on sale. Shares +6.4% at EUR21.39. (PNM) 1247 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Sage#^ Group (U.SGE) looks to be the last tech stock to leave the FTSE-100 - "Please turn off the lights..." says CAI Cheuvreux analyst Graham Brown who predicts "technical savaging of the share price," if it drops. Brown says stock seems expensive as markets are under pressure and competition is likely to intensify. Sees fair value at 138p with a trading range between 116p and 173p. Rates at underperform. Trades -1.5% at 121p. (NPF) 1247 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--European carmakers' association ACEA officially cuts forecast for 02 car sales, now sees -5%, previously had seen 3%-4% sales drop. "It's something the market is expecting," says an analyst at a big German bank, as some executives predicted similar recently. Says lower forecast should be priced in. All European autos now higher except Peugeot (F.PEU) after UBSW, Lehman downgrades. (BGD) 1245 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Lehman Brothers sees Electrolux (ELUX) continuing to reduce its cost base, improve operational efficiency. Also sees margin recovery with increasing focus on price/mix. Says there is considerable scope for revaluation. Sees faster pace of acquisitions, step-up in demand and share buybacks. Share is trading on trough multiples with a 5%-50% discount to peers. Lehman is overweight with SEK154 target. Share +4.5% at SEK163.50. (CHP) Modificato da - gz on 8/8/2002 10:7:21

Americredit è un titolo che seguo, l'ho anche messo tra i ^Titoli Indicatore" sul sito qui#www.cobraf.com/borsaitalia.asp^ ieri bastato un analista molto seguito di JP Morgan per sventrarlo del 25%, ma non è colpa del titolo è il settore del credito al consumo che è considerato sospetto Ad ogni modo questo mostra che i singoli analisti perlomeno in america contano molto se hanno un prestigio e una reputazione personale In questo caso non era tanto "JP Morgan ha abbassato il giudizio" quanto Mr. XYZ che è molto seguito Per questo seguire l'azione degli analisti al mattino in apertura serve Modificato da - gz on 8/8/2002 10:32:36

Fare i sistemi serve anche se non li si usa in modo fedele perchè ad es ti indica cose di questo genere: ho appena buttato via 5 punti per recuperarne 5 che avevo perso invece di cercare di restare nella direzione dei prossimi 30 punti. Non è detto che ora la direzione sia quella giusta, lo sapremo domani, ma certamente è il metodo che alla fine conta e sono qua che penso, cosa #@?&%$§*$ ti importa dei 5 punti S&P o 10 Nazz quando sai che la "misura giusta" è di 25-30 punti S&P e 30-40 Nazz ? Ho conosciuto un poco gente che usava un sistema computerizzato per gli S&P futures in hedge fund: l'Hanseatic Fund in new mexico che è stato comprato da un italiano ed è stato numero uno per gli S&P nel 1998 o 1997, un fondo piccolo, Bel Air Capital a L.A. e a Ginevra quello di uno che si chiama Markus Nitsch di cui non ricordo in questo momento il nome del fondo. La cosa che avevano in comune era il fatto che usavano solo barre orarie o giornaliere e facevano in media 3 operazioni alla settimana, non 3 al giorno o 3 al mese. Se vogliamo anche oddball che è usato da professionisti in diverse versioni più o meno ha questa frequenza. Se faccio dei test di sistema i risultati ottimali per FIB e S&P dicono la stessa cosa: su circa 260 giorni di borsa in un anno da 80 a 100 operazioni è la misura ottimale, cioè una ogni 2,5 o 3 giorni. Anche l'esperienza diretta personale, anche se non nella forma di sistema automatico, tende a dire la stessa cosa. E allora, se la pratica e la teoria dicono qual'è la misura ottimane perchè stressarsi inutilmente ? Ovvio che se non uso nessun sistema posso esagerare all'opposto, andare sotto di 50 punti andando a mediare in basso pensando di avere capito quello che nessuno ha capito. Un qualche sistema invece costringe a cambiare direzione, ma la "misura" e il il "ritmo" non sono una cosa arbitraria e sarebbe meglio usare quella che #@?&%$§*$ sai essere corretta Modificato da - gz on 8/7/2002 21:28:56

In attesa di una risoluzione al rialzo o al ribasso degli indici di borsa di oggi (spiace ma l'85% dei titoli al momento seguono gli indici) leggo qui sulla situazione del credito al consumo americano. Come noto negli ultimi 12 mesi mentre italiani, tedeschi, giapponesi non spendevano, mentre gli investimenti della aziende crollavano causa la saturazione delle telecom, pc e cellulari solo l'eroico consumatore americano ha preso su di sè il compito di rimpinzarsi di ogni possibile ben di dio Negli ultimi due mesi ad es grazie all'espandersi del credito al consumo e di quello legato agli immobili altri 40-50 miliardi di dollari sono stati messi a disposizione. Non è una cifra piccola. Il credito al consumo è salito del 6% e quello per immobili dell'11% negli ultimi 12 mesi. Questo sotto è un articolo di giornale e non un report e non menziona che il tasso di risparmio è salito da 0% nel 2000 al 4%. Ma resta che qualcuno deve dare il cambio a questa povera gente. A questo proposito i titoli come Capital One, Americredit di cui si parla qua a fianco, Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac (cioè le società che fanno questi prestiti) sono un indicatore forse migliore dell'RSI o Stocastico ----------------------------------------------------- Consumer Credit: Is a Crunch Coming? Sat Aug 3,12:01 AM ET By Peter Coy and Heather Timmons in New York, with Brian Grow in Atlanta, David Welch in Detroit, and Mike McNamee in Washington Thank Amy Bell for helping keep the U.S. economy afloat. Bell, a 27-year-old benefits manager in Atlanta, bought a studio condominium with no money down, leased a Volkswagen Passat, and spent $2,300 on a set of living room furniture -- all in the past six months. "I have been going a bit crazy with the spending," she says. That's for sure. Bell and plenty of other people are piling up huge debts. The amount that Americans owe on loans for houses, cars, credit cards, and other purchases adds up to nearly 100% of their annual income after taxes. That's up from 75% in 1992, after the last recession ended. EASY MONEY. Even if consumers are willing to take on more debt, lenders -- and more important, the investors who buy many of the loans they securitize -- may soon decide that enough is enough. If the credit crunch now squeezing business starts to hit consumers, whose spending accounts for two-thirds of gross domestic product [GDP ( news - web sites)], the U.S. economy could wind up in a world of trouble. For now, a consumer credit crunch is hardly inevitable. Unlike businesses, consumers still have an easy time raising money. When they max out one credit card, it's a cinch to sign up for another. Outstanding consumer credit, most of it from credit cards and auto loans, rose 5.7% in the 12 months ended in May. And the amount of home-mortgage and home-equity loan debt outstanding keeps rising, too. It's up 10.5% for the year ended in March. Banks have been eager to expand consumer lending, because profits from their commercial loan, brokerage, and investment banking departments have tanked. Income at Citigroup's (NYSE: C - News) consumer businesses, for instance, grew 25%, to $2 billion, in the second quarter. MORE OVERSIGHT. For now, the combination of rising debt and falling interest rates continues to fuel consumer spending. In the past two months, mortgage refinancing has given consumers a further $40 billion to $50 billion to spend, estimates Bank One economist Diane C. Swonk. In nearly two-thirds of recent refinancings of loans owned by Freddie Mac Corp. (NYSE: FRE - News), people took out bigger loans than the ones they paid off, freeing up cash for more spending. And despite being burned repeatedly, lenders still increase loans to subprime borrowers. Swonk thinks that's a big factor in strong auto sales. But there are signs a consumer credit crunch could be in the offing. Delinquencies on non-mortgage consumer debt reached 1.86% of debts at the end of 2001, up a third from 1.4% a year earlier and the highest in a decade, according to the Consumer Bankers Assn. In the past year, Providian Financial (NYSE: PVN - News), Metris, and NextCard have been crushed by bad debts. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates that the liquidation of NextCard Inc. will cost taxpayers up to $400 million. As a result, the government is stepping up oversight, which in turn could cut the supply of credit to some consumers. So far, attention is mainly on subprime lenders. "We want to put more focus on the higher risks," says David Gibbons, deputy comptroller at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. On July 22, bank regulators announced guidelines to prod credit-card lenders into increasing reserves and disclosing defaults promptly, after discovering that many were pushing the limits in their accounting. Some lenders may drop out of the market, predicts Reilly Tierney of boutique investment bank Fox-Pitt, Kelton in New York. "HIDDEN CREDIT RISK." But credit concerns could also begin to infect higher-grade credits in coming months. That's the way nearly every crunch unfolds: from the bottom up. And the quantity of debt is so large that bad news could cause lenders to retrench, even without regulators' warnings. Analysts warn that any of a number of factors could spook lenders: a decline in house prices, a rise in interest rates, or a softening of the job market that pushes up unemployment and moderates wage gains. Mortgage lenders would tighten up in a hurry if housing prices soften. That's a distinct possibility, given what Freddie Mac Corp. estimates is a 37% average increase in prices in the past five years. Many homes today are purchased with downpayments of 5% or less, so even a modest decline would leave people owing more than their house is worth. That would cool cash-out refinancings, which have propped up consumer spending. And it would frighten lenders, who would lose the ability to make themselves whole through a repossession. "It could bring to the fore a great deal of hidden credit risk," says Stuart A. Feldstein, president of SMR Research in Hackettstown, N.J. "In mortgage lending, the [profit] spreads are so thin that there's no room for big losses." An increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve ( news - web sites) could be the trigger for a fall in home prices. Right now, a Fed rate hike remains unlikely. But if the stock market keeps rebounding and the recovery continues, it will strengthen Fed hawks who argue that low rates and excessive money creation are inflating new bubbles in the economy. RISKY DEPENDENCE. For lenders, the problem is that consumers are dangerously dependent on today's superlow rates. When rates fall, the cost of servicing debt should fall, too. Yet the Federal Reserve says that household debt-service payments were more than 14% of disposable income in the first quarter, near the highest level in 22 years. If rates go higher, the burden of debt service will increase. Mortgage Bankers Assn. economist Phil Colling says that approximately 30% of outstanding mortgage debt has adjustable rates. And about 40% of non-real-estate consumer debt is revolving credit, much of which has adjustable rates. A credit crunch could set in if a rate rise triggers a wave of defaults by holders of adjustable mortgages and revolving debt. Aside from rising rates, the other nightmare for lenders would be a lull in the job market. Thanks in part to tax cuts, disposable income after inflation rose 5% in the year ended in the second quarter. That helped hold down the debt-to-income ratio. But lenders would be more reluctant to extend credit if the unemployment rate spikes or real incomes slow their rise, because they would be worried about getting paid back. And rates are already so low that the Federal Reserve couldn't easily use further rate cuts to lure consumer lenders back into extending credit. GOING FOR BROKE? A final wild card is the new bankruptcy bill, which will take effect six months after President Bush ( news - web sites) signs it into law. Feldstein of SMR Research says some shaky credit-card issuers could be driven under if many of their cardholders file at once to obtain protection from creditors under the old, more lenient law. That, in turn, could disrupt the flow of fresh credit. The credit crunch on business has been painful. But for Amy Bell and the home buyers, car shoppers and mall walkers like her across the country, a credit crunch would be a real killer. Edited by - gz on 8/7/2002 17:2:59

Di tutto quello che passa per i terminali oggi vedo che qui per CSFB le azioni Europee sono poco care usando 3 misure di valuatazioni e le americane sono neutrali e leggermente sottovalutate. Le azioni inglesi costano al momento 14 volte gli utili. La media del secolo è sui 13 volte gli utili con dei minimi a 7 e dei massimi a 30 volte gli utili. "...Europe equity risk premium 4.3% vs average 3.7%, US 4.2% vs 3.4% average. US trades on 17x estimated '02 trend earns, Europe on 15x, UK on 14x. CSFB expect "capitulation rally" from low on S&P 500 of 20-25% to 930-970, "at which point we would probably downgrade equities to at least neutral." S&P closed at 859.57. (HGT) 1355 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^AngloAmerican#^ (AAUK) +8.9% at 760p after saying leaked South African minerals bill proposing new mine ownership rules "not official", not reflective of govt. policy. UBS Warburg's Peter Hickson says issue has "blown up at a time when the market is highly sensitive to risk". Reckons worse case scenario has been factored into stock price, current level represents good buying opportunity. Has buy rating. (TRF) 1350 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--Lehman Brothers says ^Orange#^ (F.ORA) request for relaxation of 3G terms in Sweden supports its view that 3G spending by both new entrants and incumbents likely to be cautious. Says request, if granted, would be blow to Orange Sverige supplier Alcatel (ALA), hitting revenue and robbing it of chance to demonstrate the capabilities of its equipment. (LCK) 1344 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Astrazeneca (AZN) -7.8% at 2152p after saying delay in submitting Crestor drug to FDA, pushes back timeframe for launch. Nomura Securities says delay knocks off 5-6% off DCF valuation. Has long term buy rating due to belief drugs such as Iressa will add to profit growth. (TRF) 1332 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM--ING Financial Markets ups TPG (TP) to buy from hold saying TPG is a well-managed company and is in a position to grow despite economic turmoil. Notes 2Q earnings were in line, but underlying figures were strong led by recovery in express division. Ups target to EUR26 from EUR22. Shares +3.9% at EUR17.76. (MFV) 1328 GMT (Dow Jones) JERUSALEM--Merrill Lynch lowers earnings outlook and rating for Orbotech (ORBK) to reflect weakness in the printed circuit board (PCB) market and potential delays in rollouts in flat-panel display rollout. Downgrades '02 to loss of 8c/share from profit of 26c and lowers '03 profit to 65c from $1.19. Says stock unlikely to rise above $20 intermediate term, cuts to neutral from buy. Closed on Nasdaq at $17.74, bid at $17.51 so far. (DAR) 1323 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^AstraZeneca#^ (AZN) -7.4% at 2162p. Says needs to submit more data to US regulators before cholesterol drug Crestor will be approved. Data due to be submitted to FDA during 1Q '03. This means earliest likely to launch is 2H '03, a year later than scheduled, says Navid Malik at Williams de Broe. "It's bad news with a capital B and a capital N." (SLR) 1306 GMT (Dow Jones) MADRID--Fitch Ratings' downgrade of Sol Melia (E.SIA) following its disappointing 1H earnings seen pushing share price lower. "The earnings were already bad ... a ratings downgrade like this doesn't help," says one trader, adding that there is room for further falls later in session. Shares -4.4% at EUR5.03. (AGL) 1303 GMT (Dow Jones) JERUSALEM--Koor Industries (KOR) -4% at ILS108.70. Haim Israel of Nessuah Zannex Securities says drop is a belated response to concerns over South American exposure of Koor's Makhteshim Again Industries' (C.MHA) unit. Makhteshim, which was -7.7% last week, extends falls -2.6%. Israel says Koor drop unrelated to publication Wed of 2Q results for its other major unit, ECI Telecom (ECIL). (DAR) 1301 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--WestLB says fundamental situation for chip stocks like ^Infineon#^ (IFX) has improved clearly since Sep '01 although SOXX index fell 20% over this time period. "Chip stocks are being driven by sentiment and not fundamental data," the analyst says. Keeps Infineon, STMicroelectronics (STM) at outperform. Infineon +3.1% at EUR12.08. STMicro +4.2% at EUR18.97. (CHE) 1251 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--?^Commerzbank#^ (G.CBK) +3.6% at EUR10.25. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein says leaked 2Q figures look plausible. "If the above numbers were substantiated, we think it would be very difficult for the bank to reach management's forecast for 2002 of EUR700-800M pretax," writes bank. Should leak be correct, bank will downgrade its pretax forecast of EUR495M, as well as EUR13 target. Rates at reduce. (CHE) 1251 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN-- ^Unicredito#^ (I.UCI) investors need not worry much about the EUR29.8M 2Q loss at Polish unit Banka Pekao, as debt provisions at Pekao were cautious and top-line showed growth, says analyst Gerard Rizk of Nomura. Keeps at hold with fair value EUR5.1. "It won't prevent Unicredito from recording positive earnings growth," as Pekao accounts for only 7% of consolidated earnings. But notes "if you're on the cautious side you'd revise down slightly." Unicredito forecasts high single-digit FY growth. Shares -1% at EUR3.56. (BJL) 1249 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT-- ^Qiagen#^ (QGENF) -4.8% at EUR6.12 following 2Q figures. ABN Amro says earnings were in line. Warns though that "Qiagen may be losing market share to Amersham's Templiphi kit in DNA template preparation." Qiagen world leader in production of DNA purification kits.(CHE) Edited by - gz on 8/7/2002 11:14:22

Sono andato sul sito dei tradingsystems italiani. Meglio di Enigma c'è al momento come sistema numero due questo Hunter che ha delle statistiche PEGGIORI di quello che ho mostrati ieri qui gratis et amore (Hunter: vincita = 44% e rapporto guadagno/perdita = 1.59) (Mio sistemino di ieri sera: vincita = 43% e rapporto guadagno/perdita = 1.79) Al momento questo Hunter guadagna di più di ENIGMA che ha delle statistiche sul PASSATO migliori (vincita = 48% e rapporto guadagno/perdita = 1.77) Come mai ? Il fatto che nel passato, anche per diversi anni, un sistema abbia funzionato non significa che continui a funzionare. Questo per ragioni matematiche che sono state studiate (la serie dell'S&P non sembra essere stazionaria e a volte è random ecc...) Più banalmente da un paio di anni il globex che una volta era poco importante ora è un mercato essenziale per cui di fatto gli S&P sono un mercato a 24 ore, ma chi fa sistemi usa solo le 6 ore e 45 minuti di trading a NY Questo fa sì che ci siano sempre più gap violenti ad esempio. La serie degli S&P negli ultimi due anni è cambiata, le serie di borsa cambiano sempre un poco. Appena ho tempo posso fare vedere anche i test (devo cambiare pc, su TS 2000 ho 2 anni di dati solamente) dal 1995 o 1990, ma francamente nella mia esperienza è meglio che il sistema funzioni negli ultimi due anni bene. Piuttosto è meglio che il sistema funzioni su 4 o 5 indici di borsa diversi negli ultimi 2 anni che non su 10 anni su un singolo indice. Ad ogni modo tutti questi sistemi guadagnano al momento e i risultati sono simili PER CUI CHI USI SISTEMI IN QUESTO MOMENTO NON HA PROBLEMI Appena però gli indici entrino in una zona di oscillazione a zig-zag le cose cambieranno Modificato da - gz on 8/6/2002 21:37:44

Riguardo alla discussione sull'allocazione di portafoglio qui sopra (e altre simili) mi sono reso conto che probabilmente anche per mio suggerimento il modello di portafoglio di Don Hays è seguito. Avendolo suggerito tempo fa devo dire che il suo fallimento negli ultimi 12 mesi mi fa pensare che abbia difetti strutturali. Pur tenendo conto del fatto che viene usato da 15 o 20 anni, che a inizio 2000 era andato negativo esattamente al massimo, che l'anno non è ancora finito ecc.... ci sono alcune cose che non vanno in questo approccio. Lo stesso si può dire per ^Stocksatbottom#www.Stocksatbottom.com^. Una modello di portafoglio e medio-lungo termine che mi sembra abbia un discreto successo (nel senso che batte in modo significativo il Dow Jones dal 1995 ed è su del 156%) è ^quello di Robert Drach#http://www.nightlybusiness.org/drach.htm^ Ecco l'ultimo aggiornamento e tutti i dati relativi. A differenza di Hays fornisce un resoconto dettagliato di tutte le posizioni suggerite e indica esattamente cosa sta facendo. (NB chi fa trading di future è pregato di non intervenire come al solito per dire: "...chisseneimporta, basta fare trading ogni 45 minuti e andare short...". Stiamo parlando di come allocare i soldi per chi fa un lavoro normale) Robert Drach's "Basic Timing" Model Portfolio Date: August 2, 2002 Basic Timing. Please expand to full screen. Daily commentary, current portfolio structure and history follow. Please direct questions and comments to: Drach Market Research 200 Westridge Drive Tallahassee, FL 32304 Tel.: 850-576-2680 E-Mail: DRACHMKT@aol.com Portfolio initiated 5/5/95, archived daily, initial level 520.12 Current relative value 1,336.72. Gain + 157.00% These results are reflective as to capital capture and market price of current holdings, itemized below. They do not include cash dividends, interest earned on cash balances, transaction costs, or anything else. Current Stock vs. Cash Allocation $ 1,336,716.30 (100%) stock. $ 1.45 (0%) cash equivalents. Total Positions 245 Average Position Profit 230 (93.88%) Percentage + 10.59% Loss 15 ( 6.12%) Days Held 140 Even 0 ( 0.00%) Annualized + 27.61% Relative performance since portfolio initiation (5/5/95) This model portfolio + 157% Dow Industrial + 91% S&P 500 + 66% Nasdaq Composite + 47% Model Portfolio Changes: None. Major movements (+ or - one point or more among holdings): America International Group - 2,59, Emerson Electric - 2,44, General Electric - 1.90, Home Depot - 1.20, Paychex - 1.57, State Street - 1.04. Second consecutive decidedly negative session (this time, Dow Industrial - 193.49, S&P - 20.42, Nasdaq Composite - 32.08) concluding a very volatile week. The net results of the most popular averages for the past five days were actually mixed with a moderately positive bias: Dow + 48.74, S&P + 11.40, Nasdaq - 14.15. Wild price gyrations aggravate what to many is a very emotional market condition. It is sort of self-fulfilling situation wherein the emotionalism creates the volatility and the volatility intensifies the emotionally induced behavior. Volatility cycles and the market will eventually calm. Entering Monday, this model portfolio has no reason to be attuned to altering positions. Complete Trading History of All Concluded Positions Purchase Selling Purchase Selling Profit Days Stock Position Date Date Price Price (loss) Held 1,009 Pep Boys 5/5/95 5/12/95 25 3/4 28 5/8 +11.16 7 698 Nordstrom 5/5/95 5/31/95 37 1/4 41 1/2 +10.07 26 645 Block (H&R) 5/12/95 6/22/95 40 1/2 39 1/2 - 2.47 41 947 Albertson's 5/26/95 6/23/95 27 5/8 30 1/2 +10.41 28 980 Rubbermaid 6/9/95 7/7/95 26 7/8 29 5/8 +10.23 28 747 Cintas 5/19/95 7/10/95 35 39 +10.26 52 976 Rubbermaid 6/16/95 8/9/95 27 29 7/8 +10.65 52 1,087 U.S.Bancorp 5/19/95 8/22/95 24 1/32 26 1/2 +10.27 95 924 Albertson's 6/2/95 8/30/95 28 1/2 31 1/2 +10.53 89 1,151 Walgreen 8/25/95 9/13/95 23 3/4 26 1/8 +10.00 19 1,573 Crompton&Knwls 6/9/95 9/14/95 16 3/4 15 1/2 -7.46 97 1,229 Heilig-Meyers 8/4/95 9/22/95 21 7/8 24 1/8 +10.28 49 1,456 Limited Inc. 8/11/95 10/6/95 18 5/8 20 7/8 +12.08 56 1,456 Limited Inc. 8/18/95 10/6/95 18 5/8 20 7/8 +12.08 49 820 May Dept.Store 10/27/95 11/7/95 38 7/8 42 7/8 +10.29 11 731 Block(H&R) 5/26/95 11/10/95 35 3/4 46 5/8 +30.42 168 2,428 Citizens Ut-B* 7/14/95 11/15/95 11.0739 12 3/8 +11.75 119 760 Nordstrom 10/20/95 11/16/95 37 41 3/8 +11.82 27 1,441 Wal-Mart 10/27/95 11/21/95 22 1/8 24 1/2 +10.73 26 673 Teleflex 8/11/95 12/1/95 40 1/4 44 3/4 +11.18 112 990 Pep Boys 6/30/95 12/5/95 26 3/4 27 3/8 + 2.33 158 1,710 Archer-Daniel* 7/14/95 12/22/95 15.7184 17 3/4 +12.95 161 1,750 Archer-Daniel* 7/28/95 1/2/96 15.3602 18 1/4 +18.81 158 1,207 Rubbermaid 12/22/95 1/16/96 25 27 3/4 +11.00 25 576 Ill.Tool Works 1/12/96 1/30/96 52 3/4 58 7/8 +11.61 18 1,552 Wal-Mart 1/19/96 2/1/96 19 7/8 21 7/8 +10.06 13 584 Medtronic 12/1/95 2/6/96 52 1/2 58 1/8 +10.71 67 905 Dillard D.S. 11/3/95 2/12/96 28 5/8 32 1/8 +12.23 101 658 Abbott Labs 11/3/95 2/12/96 39 3/8 44 1/4 +12.38 101 1,131 Pep Boys 10/13/95 2/14/96 24 7/8 29 1/2 +18.59 124 1,364 Hormel 10/27/95 2/15/96 23 3/8 26 +11.22 111 1,373 Heilig-Meyers 10/20/95 3/6/96 20 1/2 19 1/2 - 4.88 138 1,547 Limited 11/10/95 3/7/96 19 19 3/8 + 1.97 118 1,908 Crompton&Knwls 6/23/95 3/11/96 13 7/8 14 5/8 + 5.41 261 2,030 Heilig-Meyers 2/2/96 5/15/96 15 5/8 22 5/8 +44.80 103 360 Philip Morris 3/22/96 5/17/96 86 1/4 95 1/2 +10.72 56 1,742 Limited 11/17/95 5/20/96 17 1/8 21 1/4 +24.09 185 2,861 Citizens Utl.B 3/29/96 5/21/96 10 7/8 12 +10.34 53 589 Sigma-Aldrich 4/12/96 5/22/96 52 3/4 59 1/4 +12.32 40 604 Medtronic 4/26/96 5/22/96 51 1/2 57 +10.68 26 2,091 RPM Inc. 1/26/96 5/24/96 14 3/4 16 3/8 +11.01 119 575 Schering-Plough 5/3/96 6/4/96 54 1/8 59 3/4 +10.39 31 740 Raytheon 7/19/96 8/6/96 46 5/8 51 5/8 +10.72 20 826 Automatic Data 3/8/96 8/9/96 38 41 7/8 +10.20 154 855 Omnicom 7/26/96 8/9/96 40 3/8 44 3/4 +10.83 14 1,175 Pep Boys 7/26/96 8/15/96 29 3/8 32 3/4 +11.49 19 1,200 Sysco 7/19/96 8/20/96 28 3/4 31 3/4 +10.43 32 688 Medtronic 7/12/96 8/21/96 50 1/8 56 3/8 +12.46 40 564 Wrigley 4/19/96 9/6/96 55 1/8 55 1/4 + .45 140 2,147 Archer-Danl-Mid 7/19/96 9/19/96 16.0733 18 3/4 +16.65 62 621 Wrigley 5/10/96 10/4/96 50 1/8 61 1/2 +22.69 147 1,501 Hormel 7/26/96 10/9/96 23 23 5/8 + 2.72 75 1,508 Federal Signal 7/5/96 10/11/96 22 7/8 25 5/8 +12.02 98 1,793 Limited 7/12/96 10/14/96 19 1/4 20 + 3.90 94 423 Philip Morris 8/16/96 10/17/96 88 5/8 97 3/8 + 9.87 62 431 Philip Morris 8/23/96 11/7/96 88 98 3/8 +11.79 76 2,144 Cromptn&Knowls 10/6/95 11/12/96 13 1/8 18 1/2 +40.95 401 1,316 PepsiCo 8/30/96 11/13/96 28 7/8 32 +10.82 75 1,731 Hormel 8/9/96 11/14/96 21 3/8 25 7/8 +21.05 98 818 Electronic Data 10/25/96 11/29/96 46 1/8 48 1/2 + 5.15 35 1,267 UST 8/30/96 12/5/96 30 33 3/8 +11.25 67 1,357 Dollar General 11/8/96 12/9/96 28 1/2 32 +12.28 31 1,429 Dollar General 11/22/96 12/9/96 28 1/8 32 +13.78 17 963 Commerce Bkshr. 12/6/96 12/19/96 42 47 3/4 +13.69 13 1,004 Beckton-Dicksn. 11/15/96 12/24/96 40 44 +10.00 39 619 Motorola 7/12/96 12/26/96 55 3/4 63 1/4 +13.45 167 611 Motorola 8/2/96 12/26/96 56 1/2 63 1/4 +11.95 146 1,807 Federal Signal 12/20/96 12/27/96 23 3/8 25 3/4 +10.16 7 949 Omnicom 12/20/96 1/9/97 44 1/2 49 5/8 +11.52 20 945 Omnicom 12/27/96 1/9/97 44 5/8 49 5/8 +11.20 13 1,429 PepsiCo 12/13/96 1/23/97 29 1/8 35 1/2 +21.89 41 1,352 Pep Boys 12/20/96 2/10/97 31 1/4 33 + 5.60 52 1,640 Wal-Mart 11/15/96 3/3/97 24 1/2 27 +10.20 108 1,631 UST 3/21/97 3/24/97 27 1/8 30 +10.60 3 748 Motorola 2/21/97 3/26/97 59 1/8 62 + 4.86 33 1,188 Philip Morris * 3/21/97 4/16/97 37.1666 43 1/8 +16.03 26 623 State St. Boston 3/27/97 4/29/97 72 1/4 79 3/4 +10.38 34 857 Franklin Resourcs.4/4/97 4/29/97 52 1/2 57 3/4 +10.00 25 971 SunTrust Banks 4/4/97 5/2/97 46 3/8 52 1/4 +12.66 28 851 Jefferson Pilot 4/11/97 5/2/97 52 7/8 59 1/4 +12.06 21 1,013 Norwest 4/18/97 5/5/97 46 1/2 51 1/2 +10.75 17 1,633 Dollar General 4/25/97 5/5/97 28 7/8 32 1/4 +11.69 10 1,459 Hannaford Bros. 4/11/97 5/6/97 30 7/8 34 +10.12 11 623 Fifth Third Bnkcp.4/11/97 5/14/97 72 1/4 79 3/4 +10.38 33 790 Motorola 2/28/97 5/23/97 56 65 1/4 +16.52 84 1,115 Banc One 4/4/97 6/12/97 40 3/8 45 3/8 +12.38 69 1,090 Albertson's 10/18/96 6/19/97 34 5/8 38 1/8 +10.11 244 1,412 Pep Boys 1/3/97 6/20/97 29 7/8 35 3/8 +18.41 168 1,908 Limited Inc. 9/13/96 7/24/97 18 1/8 21 7/16 +18.27 314 633 Intl. Flav/Frag. 1/5/96 7/31/97 48 53 1/16 +10.55 572 989 Dillard's 7/5/96 8/4/97 34 7/8 38 5/8 +10.75 395 684 Marsh & McLennen 8/29/97 9/16/97 68 1/4 75 7/16 +10.53 18 603 Franklin Resourcs.8/29/97 9/16/97 77 3/8 85 15/16+11.07 18 1,702 Sherwin-Williams 8/29/97 9/19/97 27 7/16 30 3/8 +10.71 21 513 Merck 8/15/97 9/22/97 90 7/8 102 15/16+13.27 38 719 General Electric 8/22/97 10/7/97 64 7/8 72 +10.98 46 676 Motorola 9/12/97 10/8/97 69 3/16 74 3/8 + 7.50 26 5,675 Citizens Util.* 5/21/97 10/23/97 8.842 10 3/16 +15.22 155 5,753 Citizens Util.* 5/23/97 10/24/97 8.9601 10 1/4 +14.40 156 1,565 Dollar General 10/17/97 11/17/97 33 37 13/16+14.58 31 1,249 Medtronic Inc. 10/31/97 11/17/97 43 1/2 48 +10.34 17 1,845 Synovus Fincl. 8/22/97 11/25/97 25 5/16 31 1/2 +24.44 95 1,319 Winn Dixie Stores 7/11/97 12/3/97 37 7/16 41 7/16 +10.68 145 543 Gillette 8/15/97 12/4/97 85 7/8 95 7/8 +11.64 126 2,270 ServiceMaster 10/31/97 12/5/97 23 15/16 27 1/8 +13.32 35 1,042 Banc One 10/31/97 12/9/97 52 1/8 57 1/2 +10.31 39 1,067 Raytheon 11/7/97 12/17/97 51 56 3/8 +10.54 40 1,830 Dollar General 12/26/97 12/30/97 31 15/16 36 3/16 +13.31 5 2,051 Walgreen 12/26/97 12/30/97 28 1/2 31 3/8 +10.09 5 962 Becton Dickinson 8/8/97 1/16/98 48 1/2 55 +13.40 161 626 Amer. Home Prod. 8/22/97 1/20/98 74 9/16 94 +26.07 151 2,706 Federal Signal 11/28/97 1/20/98 21 3/4 22 3/8 + 2.87 53 523 Bandag 9/29/95 1/23/98 52 7/8 58 5/8 +10.87 847 776 Motorola 9/19/97 2/2/98 66 5/8 62 - 6.94 136 1,080 State Street 12/19/97 2/5/98 54 1/8 60 1/4 +11.32 48 1,484 Franklin Resourc* 1/2/98 2/11/98 43 31/32 49 1/8 +11.73 40 744 Coca-Cola 8/8/97 2/12/98 62 11/16 69 1/4 +10.47 188 2,313 United Asset Man. 1/23/98 2/17/98 21 15/16 24 3/8 +11.11 25 2,301 United Asset Man. 1/30/98 2/17/98 22 1/16 24 3/8 +10.48 18 1,052 Assoc. Banc-Corp 1/23/98 3/11/98 48 1/4 53 5/16 +10.49 47 699 Minnesota Min/Mfg 12/19/97 3/17/98 83 5/8 93 5/16 +11.58 90 1,035 Motorola 12/12/97 3/31/98 55 7/8 60 5/8 + 8.50 108 1,357 Dillard's 10/17/97 5/18/98 38 1/16 43 +12.97 213 1,449 Dillard's 10/24/97 5/18/98 37 1/2 43 +14.67 206 2,586 Sysco Corp. 4/24/98 6/9/98 22 3/4 25 1/8 +10.44 46 504 Merck 5/1/98 6/18/98 116 5/8 128 7/8 +10.50 48 1,153 Fifth Third Bancp 5/8/98 6/22/98 51 1/32 56 3/4 +11.21 45 2,833 Federal Signal 12/5/97 6/23/98 20 3/16 24 1/8 +19.50 200 2,478 Donaldson Co.* 11/21/97 6/25/98 24 1/32 22 7/8 - 4.81 215 1,547 Compass Bancshares 6/19/98 7/1/98 42 46 1/4 +10.12 12 987 Travelers Group 5/8/98 7/8/98 59 5/8 69 3/8 +16.35 61 1,470 Philip Morris 4/3/98 7/30/98 40 44 3/16 +10.47 118 7,075 Culp Inc. 7/31/98 8/4/98 9 3/16 10 1/8 +10.20 4 1,967 ConAgra Inc. 1/2/98 9/9/98 33 3/16 28 9/16 -13.94 250 1,376 Citigroup 9/11/98 10/20/98 40 13/16 45 15/16 +12.56 39 1,920 UST 4/3/98 10/29/98 30 5/8 34 +11.02 209 1,969 UST 4/9/98 10/29/98 29 7/8 34 +13.81 206 3,011 Dollar General 10/23/98 10/29/98 21 23 7/8 +13.69 6 2,849 Dollar General 10/30/98 11/5/98 23 7/8 26 + 8.90 6 1,080 Motorola 3/6/98 11/16/98 53 58 + 9.43 255 1,784 Becton Dickinson 11/13/98 11/25/98 39 1/4 43 1/2 +10.84 9 1,694 Gillette 12/11/98 12/22/98 41 3/8 46 +11.18 11 4,752 RPM Inc. 12/11/98 1/6/99 14 3/4 16 1/4 +10.17 26 1,538 Raytheon Class B 12/24/98 1/6/99 50 11/16 55 7/8 +10.23 13 857 Elec.Data System 11/1/96 1/20/99 44 52 1/4 +18.75 811 1,327 Becton Dickinson 1/22/99 2/3/99 33 3/4 37 7/16 +12.17 12 1,832 Newell 12/11/98 2/4/99 38 1/4 42 15/16 +12.25 55 472 Great Lake Chem* 3/8/96 3/8/99 66 1/2 43.875 -34.02 1095 459 Great Lake Chem* 3/15/96 3/8/99 67 5/8 43.8534 -35.15 1088 1,296 Motorola 6/12/98 4/5/99 50 1/8 76 7/8 +53.37 297 1,729 Pep Boys 8/15/97 4/13/99 27 15 3/16 -43.75 606 1,685 Pep Boys 9/5/97 4/13/99 27 3/4 15 3/16 -45.27 585 1,510 Sigma-Aldrich 3/13/98 4/15/99 37 13/16 34 1/2 - 8.76 398 655 Coca-Cola 4/9/99 4/21/99 60 3/4 67 9/16 +11.21 12 1,724 One Valley Bancp 5/29/98 4/22/99 35 38 3/4 +10.71 328 304 Medtronic 3/12/99 4/22/99 67 1/16 75 1/4 +12.21 41 1,500 Franklin Resource 7/24/98 4/27/99 44 5/8 39 3/4 -10.92 277 766 Minnesota Min/Mfg 6/26/98 5/3/99 82 7/8 93 7/8 +13.27 311 804 Minnesota Min/Mfg 7/2/98 5/3/99 82 1/4 93 7/8 +14.13 305 964 Omnicom Group 5/7/99 5/12/99 68 1/8 75 3/8 +10.64 5 1,046 Albertson's 4/16/99 6/7/99 49 11/16 55 3/16 +11.07 52 1,038 Gap 5/7/99 6/21/99 63 1/4 71 +12.25 45 3,800 Independent Bank 4/9/99 6/28/99 15 3/4 17 7/16 +10.71 80 2,023 Walgreen 4/16/99 6/28/99 25 11/16 29 5/16 +14.11 73 1,685 Walgreen 4/23/99 6/28/99 26 1/2 29 5/16 +10.61 66 1,146 Home Depot 5/7/99 6/29/99 57 5/16 64 +11.67 53 7,591 Culp Inc. 8/7/98 6/30/99 9 7/16 10 1/2 +11.26 327 1,682 Wal-Mart Stores 5/21/99 6/30/99 43 1/4 48 1/4 +11.56 40 1,027 Schering-Plough 4/30/99 7/1/99 48 5/16 53 15/16 +11.64 62 1,728 Gap 8/6/99 8/16/99 38 7/16 42 9/16 +10.73 10 705 Merck 4/30/99 10/21/99 70 3/8 78 5/8 +11.72 174 951 SunTrust Banks 2/5/99 10/28/99 67 1/2 75 1/8 +11.30 265 1,656 AFLAC Inc. 6/25/99 10/28/99 44 1/2 50 3/8 +13.20 125 931 State Street 7/23/99 11/16/99 71 1/4 78 3/8 +10.00 116 869 Wrigley 8/6/99 11/17/99 76 3/8 84 3/16 +10.23 103 4,532 Glacier Bancorp 11/19/99 11/24/99 16 1/8 17 15/16 +11.24 5 1,301 Amer. Home Prod. 7/30/99 2/11/00 51 47 - 7.84 196 1,625 Norfolk Southern 4/17/98 2/14/00 36 3/16 15 1/8 -52.20 668 1,192 Pitney Bowes 10/22/99 2/17/00 46 1/2 51 7/16 +10.62 118 2,148 MBNA Inc. 2/18/00 2/28/00 20 22 7/16 +12.19 10 1,318 Emerson Electric 2/11/00 3/30/00 46 3/8 53 1/4 +14.82 48 2,133 Cintas Corp. 11/19/99 3/31/00 34 1/4 39 3/16 +14.41 133 2,777 First Tenn. Natl. 3/3/00 3/31/00 17 3/8 20 5/16 +16.91 28 692 Merck 2/18/00 4/5/00 62 68 1/4 +10.08 47 7,094 Analysts Intl. 3/31/00 4/17/00 9 7/8 10 7/8 +10.13 17 3,694 UST Inc. 4/7/00 5/17/00 15 7/8 17 1/2 +10.24 40 3,481 First Merchants 3/31/00 6/5/00 20 1/8 22 13/16 +13.35 66 2,269 Teleflex 10/29/99 6/26/00 34 1/8 38 7/16 +12.64 240 1,424 Fastenal 6/9/00 7/12/00 55 3/4 63 1/8 +13.23 33 2,509 ABM Industries 4/7/00 7/18/00 23 3/8 26 +11.23 102 1,023 Merck 7/21/00 7/25/00 63 3/4 70 15/16 +11.27 5 4,925 Werner Enterprises 5/19/00 7/31/00 13 1/8 14 1/2 +10.48 73 1,156 MBIA Inc. 7/30/99 8/7/00 57 3/8 64 5/16 +12.09 372 4,474 Carnival Corp. 6/30/00 8/10/00 19 1/2 21 3/4 +11.54 41 676 Hewlett-Packard 7/28/00 8/16/00 107 1/4 120 +11.89 20 2,765 Federal Signal 6/11/99 10/24/00 20 7/8 23.6875 +13.47 500 3,069 Federal Signal 7/2/99 10/25/00 21 5/8 23.875 +10.40 480 3,818 Albertson's Inc. 8/25/00 11/6/00 21 7/8 24.6875 +12.86 73 3,153 Protective Life 10/27/00 11/8/00 22 24.9375 +13.35 12 3,340 First Source Corp 11/10/00 11/17/00 15.25 17.25 +13.11 7 1,520 M&T Bank * 8/20/99 11/28/00 48.40 54.50 +12.60 465 2,126 Lowe's Cos. 12/1/00 12/5/00 38.875 43.1875 +11.09 5 2,292 Old Kent Fincl.* 11/26/99 12/5/00 35.4762 40.50 +14.16 374 2,506 Pitney Bowes 10/27/00 12/6/00 27.6875 31.75 +14.67 41 2,937 Donaldson Co. 6/5/98 12/8/00 20 9/16 28.00 +36.17 916 2,161 T. Rowe Price 12/1/00 12/11/00 38.25 42.875 +12.09 11 3,914 McDonald's Corp 12/8/00 12/19/00 29.50 32.875 +11.44 11 2,275 Johnson Controls 12/8/00 1/3/01 50.75 57.0625 +12.44 26 1,646 Wal-Mart Stores 8/11/00 1/3/01 52 1/8 58.4375 +12.11 145 1,002 Total Systems Sv. 3/12/99 1/4/01 20 3/8 24.125 +18.40 663 1,519 Automatic Data Pr.1/5/01 1/9/01 54.875 60.6875 +10.59 4 4,947 Federal Signal 12/15/00 1/17/01 18.75 21.125 +12.67 33 1,061 State Street 1/19/01 1/25/01 98.50 109.36 +11.02 6 1,704 Fastenal Co. 1/5/01 1/29/01 48.9375 54.4375 +11.24 24 3,852 Gallagher * 1/12/01 1/30/01 23.9375 26.90 +12.38 18 2,336 Sigma-Aldrich 12/4/98 2/20/01 30.00 42.25 +40.83 808 1,391 Philip Morris 2/5/99 3/8/01 46 1/8 50.85 +10.24 761 520 Community Banks 11/13/00 4/6/01 20.50 22.90 +11.71 144 400 T. Rowe Price 4/6/01 4/11/01 29.75 34.03 +14.39 6 1,911 Cintas Corp. 3/9/01 4/18/01 37.00 43.41 +17.32 40 3,670 Dollar General 10/29/99 4/27/01 21.10 23.88 +13.18 545 2,716 Abbott Labs 12/22/00 5/16/01 47.375 53.80 +13.56 145 5,393 Dollar General 5/4/01 5/16/01 16.25 18.30 +12.62 12 1,319 Avery Dennison 8/4/00 5/17/01 54 3/16 59.84 +10.43 286 2,820 Valspar 7/14/00 6/4/01 31 7/8 36.00 +12.94 325 3,553 Applebee's Intl.* 6/8/01 6/26/01 25.6667 28.98 +12.91 18 578 Kelly Services'A' 4/12/01 7/12/01 23.60 26.35 +11.65 89 2,136 Genuine Parts 7/30/99 7/17/01 31 1/16 34.29 +10.29 717 1,562 Comerica Inc. 4/27/01 7/17/01 53.11 59.75 +12.50 81 2,666 Sigma-Aldrich 6/29/01 7/19/01 38.62 42.78 +10.77 21 2,817 Albertson's 5/25/01 7/20/01 28.73 32.35 +12.60 56 478 Walgreen 7/13/01 8/2/01 31.89 35.57 +11.54 20 9,284 Casey's Gen. St. 1/26/01 8/6/01 12.50 14.25 +14.00 193 2,437 May Dept. Stores 5/25/01 11/14/01 33.21 36.48 + 9.85 173 2,476 May Dept. Stores 6/1/01 11/23/01 32.69 36.59 +11.93 176 4,376 Kelly Services"A" 12/7/01 1/3/02 20.51 22.80 +11.17 27 1,689 Emerson Electric 7/20/01 3/4/02 55.00 63.36 +15.20 227 2,968 Interpublic Group 6/15/01 3/8/02 30.74 34.06 +10.80 266 1,545 Merck & Co 12/14/01 3/13/02 58.09 64.37 +10.81 89 1,991 Dillard's 7/24/98 4/12/02 33 5/8 25.19 -25.09 1357 1,771 Cintas Corp. 8/17/01 4/15/02 45.61 50.29 +10.26 241 2,947 AFLAC Inc. 8/10/01 5/1/02 27.40 30.46 +11.17 264 4,274 Total Systems Scv 4/19/02 5/1/02 20.84 23.00 +10.36 12 4,649 Dollar General 8/10/01 7/5/02 17.37 19.39 +11.63 329 2,013 Omnicom 7/5/02 7/11/02 44.78 49.36 +10.23 6 *CZNB purchase price(7/14/95) adjusted for 1.6% stock dividend ex 8/30/95. ADM purchase prices (7/14/95 and 7/28/95) adjusted for 5% stock dividend ex 8/17/95. MO purchase price(3/21/97) adjusted for 3:1 stock split. CZN purchase price (5/21/97)(5/23/97) adjusted for 1% stock dividend ex 5/31/97 and 9/12/97. Franklin Resources purchase price adjusted for 2:1 stock split (1/16/98). Donaldson purchase price adjusted for 2:1 stock split (1/14/98). GLK selling price repurchase 3/8/96 includes sale of 118 OTL @ 13 1/4 as per spin-off and carried as singular combined position, GLK selling price re 3/15/96 position includes sale of 114 OTL @ 13 1/4 as per spin-off and carried as singular combined position. Purchase of M & T Bank adjusted for 10:1 split 10/6/00. Purchase of Old Kent Financial adjusted for 5% stock dividend 7/14/00. Purchase of Gallagher adjusted for 2:1 split 2/19/01. Purchase of Dollar General adjusted for 5:4 split 5/23/00. * APPB purchase date 6/8/01 adjusted for 3:2 stock split Current Open Positions (by purchase date) Purchase Current Date Shares Corporation Price Price 7/10/98 2,587 ConAgra Inc. 25 7/8 24.79 1/8/99 3,992 ServiceMaster 20 7/16 11.31 1/15/99 2,444 Franklin Resources 33 3/8 32.49 4/20/00 1,991 Gap 38 3/4 11.25 8/18/00 1,625 Home Depot 51 3/8 28.43 11/10/00 2,209 Hewlett-Compaq 39.125 12.80 12/8/00 2,463 Paychex Inc. 46.875 23.86 1/5/01 949 America Intl. Group 87.875 60.25 2/2/01 3,336 McDonald's Corp 29.43 23.80 2/16/01 2,380 Schering-Plough 41.25 24.75 2/23/01 4,858 Schwab(Charles)Corp. 20.32 8.26 7/20/01 1,993 General Electric 46.63 29.50 7/27/01 3,816 Hewlett-Compaq 24.36 12.80 1/4/02 1,694 Merck & Co. 58.89 47.86 3/8/02 7,949 Casey's General Stores 13.09 10.91 3/15/02 7,715 Casey's General Stores 13.19 10.91 4/5/02 1,782 Emerson Electric 57.08 46.66 4/12/02 1,496 General Electric 33.55 29.50 5/10/02 3,629 Synovus Financial 25.91 22.93 5/10/02 2,022 State Street 46.50 40.52 7/12/02 2,317 Phillip Morris Cos 42.92 45.21 Cash Balance Ledger Cash Date Transaction Dr. Cr. Balance 5/5/95 Initial (opening) balance $ 520,l20.00 5/5/95 Buy 1,009 PBY @ 25 3/4 25,981.75 494,138.25 5/5/95 Buy 698 NOBE@ 37 1/4 26,000.50 468,l37.75 5/12/95 Sell 1,009 PBY @ 28 5/8 28,882.62 497,020.37 5/12/95 Buy 645 HRB @ 40 1/2 26,122.50 470,897.87 5/l9/95 Buy 747 CTAS@ 35 26,l45.00 444,752.87 5/l9/95 Buy 1,087 USBC@ 24 1/32 26,l21.97 418,630.90 5/26/95 Buy 947 ABS @ 27 5/8 26,160.87 392,470.03 5/26/95 Buy 731 HRB @ 35 3/4 26,133.25 366,336.78 5/31/95 Sell 698 NOBE@ 41 1/2 28,967.00 395,303.78 6/2/95 Buy 924 ABS @ 28 1/2 26,334.00 368,969.78 6/9/95 Buy 980 RBD @ 26 7/8 26,337.50 342,632.28 6/9/95 Buy 1,573 CNK @ 16 3/4 26,347.75 316,284.53 6/16/95 Buy 976 RBD @ 27 26,352.00 289,932.53 6/22/95 Sell 645 HRB @ 39 1/2 25,477.50 315,410.03 6/23/95 Sell 947 ABS @ 30 1/2 28,883.50 344,293.53 6/23/95 Buy 1,908 CNK @ 13 7/8 26,473.50 317,820.03 6/30/95 Buy 990 PBY @ 26 3/4 26,482.50 291,337.53 7/7/95 Sell 980 RBD @ 29 5/8 29,155.00 320,492.53 7/10/95 Sell 747 CTAS@ 39 29,133.00 349,625.53 7/14/95 Buy *1,710 ADM @ 15.7184 26,878.50 322,747.03 7/14/95 Buy *2,428 CZNB@ 11.0739 26,887.50 295,859.53 7/28/95 Buy *1,750 ADM @ 15.3602 26,880.38 268,979.15 8/4/95 Buy 1,229 HMY @ 21 7/8 26,884.38 242,094.77 8/9/95 Sell 976 RBD @ 29 7/8 29,158.00 271,252.77 8/11/95 Buy 673 TFX @ 40 1/4 27,088.25 244,164.52 8/11/95 Buy 1,456 LTD @ 18 5/8 27,118.00 217,046.52 8/18/95 Buy 1,456 LTD @ 18 5/8 27,118.00 189,928.52 8/22/95 Sell 1,087 USBC@ 26 1/2 28,805.50 218,734.02 8/25/95 Buy 1,151 WAG @ 23 3/4 27,336.25 191,397.77 8/30/95 Sell 924 ABS @ 31 1/2 29,106.00 220,503.77 9/13/95 Sell 1,151 WAG @ 26 1/8 30,069.88 250,573.65 9/14/95 Sell 1,573 CNK @ 15 1/2 24,381.50 274,955.15 9/22/95 Sell 1,229 HMY @ 24 1/8 29,649.63 304,604.78 9/29/95 Buy 523 BDG @ 52 7/8 27,653.63 276,951.15 10/6/95 Sell 1,456 LTD @ 20 7/8 30,394.00 307,345.15 10/6/95 Sell 1,456 LTD @ 20 7/8 30,394.00 337,739.15 10/6/95 Buy 2,144 CNK @ 13 1/8 28,140.00 309,599.15 10/13/95 Buy 1,131 PBY @ 24 7/8 28,133.63 281,465.52 10/20/95 Buy 1,373 HMY @ 20 1/2 28,146.50 253,319.02 10/20/95 Buy 760 NOBE@ 37 28,120.00 225,199.02 10/27/95 Buy 1,364 HRL @ 23 3/8 31,883.50 193,315.52 10/27/95 Buy 820 MA @ 38 7/8 31,877.50 161,438.02 10/27/95 Buy 1,441 WMT @ 22 1/8 31,882.13 129,555.90 11/3/95 Buy 905 DDS @ 28 5/8 25,905.63 103,650.27 11/3/95 Buy 658 ABT @ 39 3/5 25,908.75 77,741.52 11/7/95 Sell 820 MA @ 42 7/8 35,157.50 112,899.02 11/10/95 Sell 731 HRB @ 46 5/8 34,082.88 146,981.90 11/10/95 Buy 1,547 LTD @ 19 29,393.00 117,588.90 11/15/95 Sell 2,428 CZNB@ 12 3/8 30,046.50 147,635.40 11/16/95 Sell 760 NOBE@ 41 3/8 31,445.00 179,080.40 11/17/95 Buy 1,742 LTD @ 17 1/8 29,831.75 149,248.62 11/21/95 Sell 1,441 WMT @ 24 1/2 35,304.50 184,553.12 12/1/95 Sell 673 TFX @ 44 3/4 30,116.75 214,669.87 12/1/95 Buy 584 MDT @ 52 1/2 30,660.00 184,009.87 12/5/95 Sell 990 PBY @ 27 3/8 27,101.25 211,111.12 12/22/95 Sell 1,710 ADM @ 17 3/4 30,352.50 241,463.62 12/22/95 Buy 1,207 RBD @ 25 30,175.00 211,288.62 1/2/96 Sell 1,750 ADM @ 18 1/4 31,937.50 243,226.12 1/5/96 Buy 633 IFF @ 48 30,384.00 212,842.12 1/12/96 Buy 576 ITW @ 52 3/4 30,384.00 182,458.12 1/16/96 Sell 1,207 RBD @ 27 3/4 33,494.25 215,952.37 1/19/96 Buy 1,552 WMT @ 19 7/8 30,846.00 185,106.37 1/26/96 Buy 2,091 RPOW@ 14 3/4 30,842.25 154,264.12 1/30/96 Sell 576 ITW @ 58 7/8 33,912.00 188,176.12 2/1/96 Sell 1,552 WMT @ 21 7/8 33,950.00 222,126.12 2/2/96 Buy 2,030 HMY @ 15 5/8 31,718.75 190,407.37 2/6/96 Sell 584 MDT @ 58 1/8 33,945.00 224,352.37 2/12/96 Sell 905 DDS @ 32 1/8 29,073.13 253,425.50 2/12/96 Sell 658 ABT @ 44 1/4 29,116.50 282,542.00 2/14/96 Sell 1,131 PBY @ 29 1/2 33,364.50 315,906.50 2/15/96 Sell 1,364 HRL @ 26 35,464.00 351,370.50 3/6/96 Sell 1,373 HMY @ 19 1/2 26,773.50 378,144.00 3/7/96 Sell 1,547 LTD @ 19 3/8 29,973.13 408,117.13 3/8/96 Buy 826 AUD @ 38 31,388.00 376,729.13 3/8/96 Buy 472 GLK @ 66 1/2 31,388.00 345,341.13 3/11/96 Sell 1,908 CNK @ 14 5/8 27,904.50 373,245.63 3/15/96 Buy 459 GLK @ 67 5/8 31,039.88 342,205.75 3/22/96 Buy 360 MO @ 86 1/4 31,050.00 311,155.75 3/29/96 Buy 2,861 CZNB@ 10 7/8 31,113.38 280,042.37 4/12/96 Buy 589 SIAL@ 52 3/4 31,069.75 248,972.62 4/19/96 Buy 564 WWY @ 55 1/8 31,090.50 217,882.12 4/26/96 Buy 604 MDT @ 51 1/2 31,106.00 186,776.12 5/3/96 Buy 575 SGP @ 54 1/8 31,121.88 155,654.24 5/10/96 Buy 621 WWY @ 50 1/8 31,127.63 124,526.61 5/15/96 Sell 2,030 HMY @ 22 5/8 45,928.75 170,455.36 5/17/96 Sell 360 MO @ 95 1/2 34,380.00 204,835.36 5/20/96 Sell 1,742 LTD @ 21 1/4 37,017.50 241,852.86 5/21/96 Sell 2,861 CZNB@ 12 34,332.00 276,184.86 5/22/96 Sell 589 SIAL@ 59 1/4 34,898.25 311,083.11 5/22/96 Sell 604 MDT @ 57 34,428.00 345,511.11 5/24/96 Sell 2,091 RPOW@ 16 3/8 34,240.13 379,751.24 6/4/96 Sell 575 SGP @ 59 3/4 34,356.25 414,107.49 7/5/96 Buy 989 DDS @ 34 7/8 34,491.38 379,616.11 7/5/96 Buy 1,508 FSS @ 22 7/8 34,495.50 345,120.61 7/12/96 Buy 619 MOT @ 55 3/4 34,509.25 310,611.36 7/12/96 Buy 688 MDT @ 50 1/8 34,486.00 276,125.36 7/12/96 Buy 1,793 LTD @ 19 1/4 34,515.25 241,610.11 7/19/96 Buy 1,200 SYY @ 28 3/4 34,500.00 207,110.11 7/19/96 Buy 2,147 ADM @ 16.0733 34,509.38 172,600.73 7/19/96 Buy 740 RTN @ 46 5/8 34,502.50 138,098.23 7/26/96 Buy 1,501 HRL @ 23 34,523.00 103,575.23 7/26/96 Buy 855 OMC @ 40 3/8 34,520.63 69,054.60 7/26/96 Buy 1,175 PBY @ 29 3/8 34,515.63 34,538.97 8/2/96 Buy 611 MOT @ 56 1/2 34,521.50 17.47 8/6/96 Sell 740 RTN @ 51 5/8 38,202.50 38,219.97 8/9/96 Sell 826 AUD @ 41 7/8 34,588.75 72,808.72 8/9/96 Sell 855 OMC @ 44 3/4 38,261.25 111,069.97 8/9/96 Buy 1,731 HRL @ 21 3/8 37,000.13 74,069.84 8/15/96 Sell 1,175 PBY @ 32 3/4 38,481.25 112,551.09 8/16/96 Buy 423 MO @ 88 5/8 37,488.38 75,062.71 8/20/96 Sell 1,200 SYY @ 31 3/4 38,100.00 113,162.71 8/21/96 Sell 688 MDT @ 56 3/8 38,786.00 151,948.71 8/23/96 Buy 431 MO @ 88 37,928.00 114,020.71 8/30/96 Buy 1,316 PEP @ 28 7/8 37,999.50 76,021.21 8/30/96 Buy 1,267 UST @ 30 38,010.00 38,011.21 9/6/96 Sell 564 WWY @ 55 1/4 31,161.00 69,172.21 9/13/96 Buy 1,908 LTD @ 18 1/8 34,582.50 34,589.71 9/19/96 Sell 2,147 ADM @ 18 3/4 40,256.25 74,845.96 10/4/96 Sell 621 WWY @ 61 1/2 38,191.50 113,037.46 10/9/96 Sell 1,501 HRL @ 23 5/8 35,461.13 148,890.97 10/11/96 Sell 1,508 FSS @ 25 5/8 38,642.50 187,141.09 10/14/96 Sell 1,793 LTD @ 20 35,860.00 223,307.34 10/17/96 Sell 423 MO @ 97 3/8 41,189.63 264,190.72 10/18/96 Buy 1,090 ABS @ 34 5/8 37,741.25 226,449.47 10/25/96 Buy 818 EDS @ 46 1/8 37,730.25 188,719.22 11/1/96 Buy 857 EDS @ 44 37,708.00 151,011.22 11/7/96 Sell 431 MO @ 98 3/8 42,399.63 193,410.85 11/8/96 Buy 1,357 DG @ 28 1/2 38,674.50 154,736.35 11/12/96 Sell 2,144 CNK @ 18 1/2 39,664.00 194,400.35 11/13/96 Sell 1,316 PEP @ 32 42,112.00 236,512.35 11/14/96 Sell 1,731 HRL @ 25 7/8 44,789.63 281,301.98 11/15/96 Buy 1,640 WMT @ 24 1/2 40,180.00 241,121.98 11/15/96 Buy 1,004 BDX @ 40 40,160.00 200,961.98 11/22/96 Buy 1,429 DG @ 28 1/8 40,190.63 160,771.35 11/29/96 Sell 818 EDS @ 48 1/2 39,673.00 200,444.35 12/5/96 Sell 1,267 UST @ 33 3/8 42,286.13 242,730.48 12/6/96 Buy 963 CBSH@ 42 40,446.00 202,284.48 12/9/96 Sell 1,357 DG @ 32 43,424.00 245,708.48 12/9/96 Sell 1,429 DG @ 32 45,728.00 291,436.48 12/13/96 Buy 1,429 PEP @ 29 1/8 41,619.63 249,816.85 12/19/96 Sell 963 CBSH@ 47 3/4 45,983.25 295,800.10 12/20/96 Buy 1,807 FSS @ 23 3/8 42,238.63 253,561.47 12/20/96 Buy 949 OMC @ 44 1/2 42,230.50 211,330.97 12/20/96 Buy 1,352 PBY @ 31 1/4 42,250.00 169,080.97 12/24/96 Sell 1,004 BDX @ 44 44,176.00 213,256.97 12/26/96 Sell 619 MOT @ 63 1/4 39,151.75 252,408.72 12/26/96 Sell 611 MOT @ 63 1/4 38,645.75 291,054.47 12/27/96 Sell 1,807 FSS @ 25 3/4 46,530.25 337,584.72 12/27/96 Buy 945 OMC @ 44 5/8 42,170.63 295,414.09 1/ 3/97 Buy 1,412 PBY @ 29 7/8 42,183.50 253,230.59 1/ 9/97 Sell 949 OMC @ 49 5/8 47,094.13 300,324.72 1/ 9/97 Sell 945 OMC @ 49 5/8 46,895.63 347,220.35 1/23/97 Sell 1,429 PEP @ 35 1/2 50,729.50 397,949.85 2/10/97 Sell 1,352 PBY @ 33 44,616.00 442,565.85 2/21/97 Buy 748 MOT @ 59 1/8 44,225.50 398,340.35 2/28/97 Buy 790 MOT @ 56 44,240.00 354,100.35 3/3/97 Sell 1,640 WMT @ 27 44,280.00 398,380.35 3/21/97 Buy 1,631 UST @ 27 1/8 44,240.88 354,139.47 3/21/97 Buy 396 MO @111 1/2 44,154.00 309,985.47 3/24/97 Sell 1,631 UST @ 30 48,930.00 358,915.47 3/26/97 Sell 748 MOT @ 62 46,376.00 405,291.47 3/27/97 Buy 623 STT @ 72 1/4 45,011.75 360,279.72 4/4/97 Buy 1,115 ONE @ 40 3/8 45,018.13 315,261.59 4/4/97 BUY 857 BEN @ 52 1/2 44,992.50 270,269.09 4/4/97 Buy 971 STI @ 46 3/8 45,030.13 225,238.96 4/11/97 Buy 623 FITB@ 72 1/4 45,011.75 180,227.21 4/11/97 Buy 851 JP @ 52 7/8 44,996.63 135,230.58 4/11/97 Buy 1,459 HRD @ 30 7/8 45,046.63 90,183.95 4/16/97 Sell*1,188 MO @ 43 1/8 51,232.50 141,416.45 4/18/97 Buy 1,013 NOB @ 46 1/2 47,104.50 94,311.95 4/25/97 Buy 1,633 DG @ 28 7/8 47,152.88 47,159.07 4/29/97 Sell 623 STT @ 79 3/4 49,684.25 96,843.32 4/29 97 Sell 857 BEN @ 57 3/4 49,491.75 146,335.07 5/2/97 Sell 971 STI @ 52 1/4 50,734.75 197,069.82 5/2/97 Sell 851 JP @ 59 1/4 50,421.75 247,491.57 5/5/97 Sell 1,013 NOB @ 51 1/2 52,169.50 299,661.07 5/5/97 Sell 1,633 DG @ 32 1/4 52,664.25 352,325.32 5/6/97 Sell 1,459 HRD @ 34 49,606.00 401,931.32 5/13/97 Sell 623 FITB@ 79 3/4 49,684.25 451,615.57 5/21/97 Buy *5,675 CZN.B @ 8.842 50,178.38 401,437.19 5/23/97 Sell 790 MOT @ 65 1/4 51,547.50 452,984.69 5/23/97 Buy *5,753 CZN.B @ 8.9601 51,550.25 401,434.44 6/12/97 Sell 1,115 ONE @ 45 3/8 50,593.13 452,027.57 6/19/97 Sell 1,090 ABS @ 38 1/8 41,556.25 493,583.82 6/20/97 Sell 1,412 PBY @ 35 3/8 49,949.50 543,533.32 7/11/97 Buy 1,319 WIN @ 37 7/16 49,380.06 494,153.25 7/24/97 Sell 1,908 LTD @ 21 7/16 40,902.75 535,056.00 7/31/97 Sell 633 IFF @ 53 1/16 33,588.56 568,644.56 8/4/97 Sell 989 DDS @ 38 5/8 38,200.13 606,844.69 8/8/97 Buy 962 BDX @ 48 1/2 46,657.00 560,187.69 8/8/97 Buy 744 KO @ 62 11/16 46,639.50 513,548.19 8/15/97 Buy 1,729 PBY @ 27 46,683.00 466,866.19 8/15/97 Buy 513 MRK @ 90 7/8 46,618.88 420,247.31 8/15/97 Buy 543 G @ 85 7/8 46,630.13 373,616.18 8/22/97 Buy 626 AHP @ 74 9/16 46,676.13 326,940.05 8/22/97 Buy 719 GE @ 64 7/8 46,645.13 280,294.92 8/22/97 Buy 1,845 SNV @ 25 5/16 46,701.56 233,593.36 8/29/97 Buy 1,702 SHW @ 27 7/16 46,698.63 186,894.73 8/29/97 Buy 684 MMC @ 68 1/4 46,683.00 140,211.73 8/29/97 Buy 603 BEN @ 77 3/8 46,657.13 93,554.60 9/5/97 Buy 1,685 PBY @ 27 3/4 46,758.75 46,795.85 9/12/97 Buy 676 MOT @ 69 3/16 46,770.75 25.10 9/16/97 Sell 684 MMC @ 75 7/16 51,599.25 51,624.35 9/16/97 Sell 603 BEN @ 85 15/16 51,820.31 103,444.66 9/19/97 Sell 1,702 SHW @ 30 3/8 51,698.25 155,142.91 9/19/97 Buy 776 MOT @ 66 5/8 51,701.00 103,441.91 9/22/97 Sell 513 MRK @ 102 15/16 52,806.94 156,248.85 10/7/97 Sell 719 GE @ 72 51,768.00 208,016.85 10/8/97 Sell 676 MOT @ 74 3/8 50,277.50 258,294.35 10/17/97 Buy 1,357 DDS @ 38 1/16 51,650.81 206,643.54 10/17/97 Buy 1,565 DG @ 33 51,645.00 154,998.54 10/23/97 Sell 5,675 CZN @ 10 3/16 57,814.06 212,812.60 10/24/97 Sell 5,753 CZN @ 10 1/4 58,968.25 271,780.85 10/24/97 Buy 1,449 DDS @ 37 1/2 54,337.50 217,443.35 10/31/97 Buy 2,270 SVM @ 23 15/16 54,338.13 163,105.22 10/31/97 Buy 1,249 MDT @ 43 1/2 54,331.50 108,773.72 10/31/97 Buy 1,042 ONE @ 52 1/8 54,314.25 54,459.47 11/7/97 Buy 1,067 RTN @ 51 54,417.00 42.47 11/17/97 Sell 1,565 DG @ 37 13/16 59,176.56 59,219.03 11/17/97 Sell 1,249 MDT @ 48 59,952.00 119,171.03 11/21/97 Buy* 2,478 DCI @ 24 1/32 59,549.44 59,621.59 11/25/97 Sell 1,845 SNV @ 31 1/2 58,117.50 117,739.09 11/28/97 Buy 2,706 FSS @ 21 3/4 58,855.50 58,883.59 12/3/97 Sell 1,319 WIN @ 41 7/16 54,656.06 113,539.65 12/4/97 Sell 543 G @ 98 7/8 53,689.13 167,228.78 12/5/97 Sell 2,270 SVM @ 27 1/8 61,573.75 228,802.53 12/5/97 Buy 2,833 FSS @ 20 3/16 57,191.19 171,611.34 12/9/97 Sell 1,042 ONE @ 57 1/2 59,915.00 231,526.34 12/12/97 Buy 1,035 MOT @ 55 7/8 57,830.63 173,695.71 12/17/97 Sell 1,067 RTN @ 56 3/8 60,152.13 233,847.84 12/19/97 Buy 1,080 STT @ 54 1/8 58,455.00 175,392.84 12/19/97 Buy 699 MMM @ 83 5/8 58,453.88 116,938.96 12/26/97 Buy 1,830 DG @ 31 15/16 58,445.63 58,493.33 12/26/97 Buy 2,051 WAG @ 28 1/2 58,453.50 39.83 12/30/97 Sell 1,830 DG @ 36 3/16 66,223.13 66,262.96 12/30/97 Sell 2,051 WAG @ 31 3/8 64,350.13 130,613.09 1/2/98 Buy 1,967 CAG @ 33 3/16 65,279.81 65,333.28 1/2/98 Buy* 1,484 BEN @ 43 31/32 65,249.63 83.65 1/16/98 Sell 962 BDX @ 55 52,910.00 52,993.65 1/20/98 Sell 626 AHP @ 94 58,844.00 111,837.65 1/20/98 Sell 2,706 FSS @ 22 3/8 60,546.75 172,384.40 1/23/98 Sell 523 BDG @ 58 5/8 30,660.88 203,045.28 1/23/98 Buy 2,313 UAM @ 21 15/16 50,741.44 152,303.84 1/23/98 Buy 1,052 ASBC@ 48 1/4 50,759.00 101,544.84 1/30/98 Buy 2,301 UAM @ 22 1/16 50,765.81 50,779.03 2/2/98 Sell 776 MOT @ 62 48,112.00 98,891.03 2/5/98 Sell 1,080 STT @ 60 1/4 65,070.00 163,961.03 2/11/98 Sell 1,484 BEN @ 49 1/8 72,901.50 236,862.53 2/12/98 Sell 744 KO @ 69 1/4 51,522.00 288,384.53 2/17/98 Sell 2,313 UAM @ 24 3/8 56,379.38 344,763.91 2/17/98 Sell 2,301 UAM @ 24 3/8 56,086.88 400,850.79 3/6/98 Buy 1,080 MOT @ 53 57,240.00 343,610.79 3/11/98 Sell 1,052 ASBC @ 53 5/16 56,084.75 399,695.54 3/13/98 Buy 1,510 SIAL @ 37 13/16 57,096.88 342,598.66 3/17/98 Sell 699 MMM @ 93 5/16 65,269.13 407,867.79 3/31/98 Sell 1,035 MOT @ 60 5/8 62,746.88 470,614.67 4/3/98 Buy 1,920 UST @ 30 5/8 58,800.00 411,814.67 4/3/98 Buy 1,470 MO @ 40 58,800.00 353,014.67 4/9/98 Buy 1,969 UST @ 29 7/8 58,823.88 294,190.79 4/17/98 Buy 1,625 NSC @ 36 3/16 58,804.69 235,386.10 4/24/98 Buy 2,586 SYY @ 22 3/4 58,831.50 176,554.60 5/1/98 Buy 504 MRK @ 116 5/8 58,779.00 117,775.60 5/8/98 Buy 987 TRV @ 59 5/8 58,849.88 58,925.72 5/8/98 Buy 1,153 FITB@ 51 1/32 58,839.03 86.69 5/18/98 Sell 1,357 DDS @ 43 58,351.00 58,437.69 5/18/98 Sell 1,449 DDS @ 43 62,307.00 102,921.72 5/29/98 Buy 1,724 OV @ 35 60,340.00 60,404.69 6/5/98 Buy 2,937 DCI @ 20 9/16 60,392.06 12.63 6/9/98 Sell 2,586 SYY @ 25 1/8 64,973.25 64,985.88 6/12/98 Buy 1,296 MOT @ 50 1/8 64,962.00 23.88 6/18/98 Sell 504 MRK @ 128 7/8 64,953.00 64,976.88 6/19/98 Buy 1,547 CBSS@ 42 64,974.00 2.88 6/22/98 Sell 1,153 FITB@ 56 3/4 65,432.75 65,435.63 6/23/98 Sell 2,833 FSS @ 24 1/8 68,346.13 133,781.76 6/25/98 Sell 2,478 DCI @ 22 7/8 56,684.25 190,466.01 6/26/98 Buy 766 MMM @ 82 7/8 63,482.25 126,983.76 7/1/98 Sell 1,547 CBSS@ 46 1/4 71,548.75 198,532.51 7/2/98 Buy 804 MMM @ 82 1/4 66,129.00 132,403.51 7/8/98 Sell 987 TRV @ 69 3/8 68,473.13 200,876.64 7/10/98 BUY 2,587 CAG @ 25 7/8 66,938.63 133,938.01 7/24/98 Buy 1,991 DDS @ 33 5/8 66,947.38 66,990.63 7/24/98 Buy 1,500 BEN @ 44 5/8 66,937.50 53.13 7/30/98 Sell 1,470 MO @ 44 3/16 64,955.63 65,008.76 7/31/98 Buy 7,075 CFI @ 9 3/16 65,001.56 7.20 8/4/98 Sell 7,075 CFI @ 10 1/8 71,634.38 71,641.58 8/7/98 Buy 7,591 CFI @ 9 7/16 71,640.06 1.52 9/9/98 Sell 1,967 CAG @ 28 9/16 56,182.44 56,183.96 9/11/98 Buy 1,376 TRV @ 40 13/16 56,158.00 25.96 10/20/98 Sell*1,376 CCI @ 45 15/16 63,210.00 63,235.96 10/23/98 Buy 3,011 DG @ 21 63,231.00 4.96 10/29/98 Sell 1,920 UST @ 34 65,280.00 65,284.96 10/29/98 Sell 1,969 UST @ 34 66,946.00 132.230.96 10/29/98 Sell 3,011 DG @ 23 7/8 71,887.63 204,118.59 10/30/98 Buy 2,849 DG @ 23 7/8 68,019.88 136.098.71 11/5/98 Sell 2,849 DG @ 26 74,074.00 210,172.71 11/13/98 Buy 1,784 BDX @ 39 1/4 70,022.00 140,150.71 11/16/98 Sell 1,080 MOT @ 58 62,640.00 202,790.71 11/25/98 Sell 1,784 BDX @ 43 1/2 77,604.00 280,394.71 12/4/98 Buy 2,336 SIAL@ 30 70,080.00 210,314.71 12/11/98 Buy 1,832 NWL @ 38 1/4 70,104.90 140,240.71 12/11/98 Buy 1,694 G @ 41 3/8 70,089.25 70,151.46 12/11/98 Buy 4,752 RPM @ 14 3/4 70,092.00 59.46 12/22/98 Sell 1,694 G @ 46 77,924.00 77,983.46 12/24/98 Buy 1,538 RTNB@ 50 11/16 77,957.38 26.08 1/6/99 Sell 4,752 RPM @ 16 1/4 77,220.00 77,246.08 1/6/99 Sell 1,538 RTNB@ 55 7/8 85,935.75 163,181.83 1/8/99 Buy 3,992 SVM @ 20 7/16 81,586.50 81,595.33 1/15/99 Buy 2,444 BEN @ 33 3/8 81,568.50 26.83 1/20/99 Sell 857 EDS @ 52 1/4 44,778.25 44,805.08 1/22/99 Buy 1,327 BDX @ 33 3/4 44,786.25 18.83 2/3/99 Sell 1,327 BDX @ 37 7/16 49,679.56 49,698.39 2/4/99 Sell 1,832 NWL @ 42 15/16 78,661.50 128,359.89 2/5/99 Buy 1,391 MO @ 46 1/8 64,159.88 64,200.02 2/5/99 Buy 951 STI @ 67 1/2 64,192.50 7.52 3/8/99 Sell 472 GLK @ 43.875* 20,709.00 20,716.52 3/8/99 Sell 459 GLK @ 43.8534* 20,128.69 40,845.21 3/12/99 Buy 304 MDT @ 67 1/16 20,387.00 20,458.21 3/12/99 Buy 1,002 TSS @ 20 3/8 20,415.75 42.46 4/5/99 Sell 1,296 MOT @ 76 7/8 99,630.00 99,672.46 4/9/99 Buy 3,800 IBCP@ 15 3/4 59,850.00 39,822.46 4/9/99 Buy 655 KO @ 60 3/4 39,791.25 31.21 4/13/99 Sell 1,729 PBY @ 15 3/16 26,259.19 26,290.40 4/13/99 Sell 1,685 PBY @ 15 3/16 25,590.94 51,881.34 4/15/99 Sell 1,510 SIAL@ 34 1/2 52,095.00 103,976.34 4/16/99 Buy 1,046 ABS @ 49 11/16 51,973.13 52,003.21 4/16/99 Buy 2,023 WAG @ 25 11/16 51,965.81 37.40 4/21/99 Sell 655 KO @ 67 9/16 44,253.44 44,290.84 4/22/99 Sell 1,724 OV @ 38 3/4 66,805.00 111,095.84 4/22/99 Sell 304 MDT @ 75 1/4 22,876.00 133,971,84 4/23/99 Buy 1,685 WAG @ 26 1/2 44,652.50 89,319.34 4/27/99 Sell 1,500 BEN @ 39 9/4 59,625.00 148,944.34 4/30/99 Buy 705 MRK @ 70 3/8 49,614.38 99,329.96 4/30/99 Buy 1,027 SGP @ 48 5/16 49,616.94 49,713.02 5/3/99 Sell 766 MMM @ 93 7/8 71,908.25 121,621.27 5/3/99 Sell 804 MMM @ 93 7/8 75,475.50 197,096.77 5/7/99 Buy 964 OMC @ 68 1/8 65,672.50 131,424.27 5/7/99 Buy 1,038 GPS @ 63 1/4 65,653.50 65,770.77 5/7/99 Buy 1,146 HD @ 57 5/16 65,680.13 90.64 5/12/99 Sell 964 OMC @ 75 3/8 72,661.50 72,752.14 5/21/99 Buy 1,682 WMT @ 43 1/4 72,746.50 5.64 6/7/99 Sell 1,046 ABS @ 55 3/16 57,726.13 57,731.77 6/11/99 Buy 2,765 FSS @ 20 7/8 57,719.38 12.39 6/21/99 Sell 1,038 GPS @ 71 73,698.00 73,710.39 6/25/99 Buy 1,656 AFL @ 44 1/2 73,692.00 18.39 6/28/99 Sell 3,800 IBCP @ 17 7/16 66,262.50 66,280.89 6/28/99 Sell 2,023 WAG @ 29 5/16 59,299.19 125,580.08 6/28/99 Sell 1,685 WAG @ 29 5/16 49,391.56 174,971.64 6/29/99 Sell 1,146 HD @ 64 73,344.00 248,315.64 6/30/99 Sell 7,591 CFI @ 10 1/2 79,705.50 328,021.14 6/30/99 Sell 1,682 WMT @ 48 1/4 81,156.50 409,177.64 7/1/99 Sell 1,027 SGP @ 53 15/16 55,393.81 464,571.45 7/2/99 Buy 3,069 FSS @ 21 5/8 66,367.13 398,204.32 7/23/99 Buy 931 STT @ 71 1/4 66,333.75 331,870.57 7/30/99 Buy 1,156 MBI @ 57 3/8 66,325.50 265,545.07 7/30/99 Buy 2,136 GPC @ 31 1/16 66,349.50 199,195.57 7/30/99 Buy 1,301 AHP @ 51 66,351.00 132,844.57 8/6/99 Buy 1,728 GPS @ 38 7/16 66,420.00 66,424.57 8/6/99 Buy 869 WWY @ 76 3/8 66,369.88 54.69 8/16/99 Sell 1,728 GPS @ 42 9/16 73,548.00 73,602.69 8/20/99 Buy* 1,520 MTB @ 48.40 73,568.00 34.69 10/21/99 Sell 705 MRK @ 78 5/8 55,430.63 55,465.32 10/22/99 Buy 1,192 PBI @ 46 1/2 55,428.00 37.32 10/28/99 Sell 951 STI @ 75 1/8 71,443.88 71,481.20 10/28/99 Sell 1,656 AFL @ 50 3/8 83,421.00 154,902.20 10/29/99 Buy* 3,670 DG @ 21.10 77,437.00 77,465.20 10/29/99 Buy 2,269 TFX @ 34 1/8 77,429.63 35.57 11/16/99 Sell 931 STT @ 78 3/8 72,967.13 73,002.70 11/17/99 Sell 869 WWY @ 84 3/16 73,158.94 146,161.64 11/19/99 Buy* 2,133 CTAS@ 34 1/4 73,055.25 73,106.39 11/19/99 Buy 4,532 GBCI@ 16 1/8 73,078.50 27.89 11/24/99 Sell 4,532 GBCI@ 17 15/16 81,292.75 81,320.64 11/26/99 Buy* 2,292 OK @ 35.4762 81,316.75 3.89 2/11/00 Sell 1,301 AHP @ 47 61,147.00 61,150.89 2/11/00 Buy 1,318 EMR @ 46 3/8 61,122.25 28.64 2/14/00 Sell 1,625 NSC @ 15 1/8 24,578.13 24,606.77 2/17/00 Sell 1,192 PBI @ 51 7/16 61,313.50 85,920.27 2/18/00 Buy 2,148 KRB @ 20 42,960.00 42,960.27 2/18/00 Buy 692 MRK @ 62 42,904.00 56.27 2/28/00 Sell 2,148 KRB @ 22 7/16 48,195.75 48,252.02 3/3/00 Buy 2,777 FTN @ 17 3/8 48,250.38 1.64 3/30/00 Sell 1,318 EMR @ 53 1/4 70,183.50 70,185.14 3/31/00 Sell 2,133 CTAS @ 39 3/16 83,586.93 153,772.07 3/31/00 Sell 2,777 FTN @ 20 5/16 56,407.81 210,179.88 3/31/00 Buy 7,094 ANLY @ 9 7/8 70,053.25 140,126.63 3/31/00 Buy 3,481 FRME @ 20 1/8 70,055.12 70,071.51 4/5/00 Sell 692 MRK @ 68 1/4 47,229.00 117,300.51 4/7/00 Buy 2,509 ABM @ 23 3/8 58,647.87 58,652.64 4/7/00 Buy 3,694 UST @ 15 7/8 58,642.25 10.39 4/17/00 Sell 7,094 ANLY @ 10 7/8 77,147.25 77,157.64 4/20/00 Buy 1,991 GPS @ 38 3/4 77,151.25 6.39 5/17/00 Sell 3,694 UST @ 17 1/2 64,645.00 64,651.39 5/19/00 Buy 4,925 WERN @ 13 1/8 64,640.25 10.77 6/5/00 Sell 3,481 FRME @ 22 13/16 79,410.31 79,421.08 6/9/00 Buy 1,424 FAST @ 55 3/4 79,388.00 33.08 6/26/00 Sell 2,269 TFX @ 38 7/16 87,214.68 87,247.76 6/30/00 Buy 4,474 CCL @ 19 1/2 87,243.00 4.76 7/12/00 Sell 1,424 FAST @ 63 1/8 89,890.00 89,894.76 7/14/00 Buy 2,820 VAL @ 31 7/8 89,887.50 7.26 7/18/00 Sell 2,509 ABM @ 26 65,234.00 65,241.26 7/21/00 Buy 1,023 MRK @ 63 3/4 65,216.25 25.01 7/25/00 Sell 1,023 MRK @ 70 15/16 72,569.06 72,594.07 7/28/00 Buy 676 HWP @ 107 1/4 72,501.00 93.07 7/31/00 Sell 4,925 WERN @ 14 1/4 71,412.50 71,505.57 8/4/00 Buy 1,319 AVY @ 54 3/16 71,473.31 32.26 8/7/00 Sell 1,156 MBI @ 64 5/16 74,345.25 74,377.51 8/10/00 Sell 4,474 CCL @ 21 3/4 97,309.50 171,687.01 8/11/00 Buy 1,646 WMT @ 52 1/8 85,797.75 85,889.26 8/16/00 Sell 676 HWP @ 120 81,120.00 167,009.26 8/18/00 Buy 1,625 HD @ 51 3/8 83,484.37 83,524.88 8/25/00 Buy 3,818 ABS @ 21 7/8 83,518.75 6.13 10/24/00 Sell 2,765 FSS @ 23.6875 65,495.93 65,502.06 10/25/00 Sell 3,069 FSS @ 23.875 73,272.37 138,774.43 10/27/00 Buy 3,153 PL @ 22 69,366.00 69,408.43 10/27/00 Buy 2,506 PBI @ 27.6875 69,384.87 23.56 11/6/00 Sell 3,818 ABS @ 24.6875 94,256.87 94,280.43 11/8/00 Sell 3,153 PL @ 24.9375 78,627.93 172,908.36 11/10/00 Buy 2,209 HWP @ 39.125 86,427.12 86,481.24 11/10/00 Buy 3,340 SRCE @ 15.25 50,935.00 35,546.24 11/13/00 Buy 520 CTY @ 20.50 10,660.00 24,886.24 11/17/00 Sell 3,340 SRCE @ 17.25 57,615.00 82,501.24 11/28/00 Sell 1,520 MTB @ 54.50 82,840.00 165,341.24 12/1/00 Buy 2,161 TROW @ 38.25 82,658.25 82,682.99 12/1/00 Buy 2,126 LOW @ 38.875 82,648.25 34.74 12/5/00 Sell 2,126 LOW @ 43.1875 91,816.62 91,851.36 12/5/00 Sell 2,292 OK @ 40.50 92,826.00 184,677.36 12/6/00 Sell 2,506 PBI @ 31.75 79,565.50 264,242.86 12/8/00 Sell 2,937 DCI @ 28.00 82,236.00 346,478.86 12/8/00 Buy 2,463 PAYX@ 46.875 115,453.12 231,025.74 12/8/00 Buy 2,275 JCI @ 50.75 115,456.25 115,569.49 12/8/00 Buy 3,914 MCD @ 29.50 115,463.00 106.49 12/11/00 Sell 2,161 TROW@ 42.875 92,652.87 92,759.36 12/15/00 Buy 4,947 FSS @ 18.75 92,756.25 3.11 12/19/00 Sell 3,914 MCD @ 32.875 128,672.75 128,675.86 12/22/00 Buy 2,716 ABT @ 47.375 128,670.50 5.36 1/3/01 Sell 2,275 JCI @ 57.0625 129,817.18 129,822.54 1/3/01 Sell 1,646 WMT @ 58.4375 96,188.12 226,010.66 1/4/01 Sell 1,002 TSS @ 24.125 24,173.25 250,183.91 1/5/01 Buy 1,519 ADP @ 54.875 83,355.12 166,828.79 1/5/01 Buy 1,714 FAST @ 48.9375 83,389.50 83,439.29 1/5/01 Buy 949 AIG @ 87.875 83,393.37 45.92 1/9/01 Sell 1,519 ADP @ 60.6875 91,184.31 92,230.23 1/12/01 Buy* 3,852 AJG @ 23.9375 92,207.25 22.98 1/17/01 Sell 4,947 FSS @ 21.125 104,505.37 104,528.35 1/19/01 Buy 1,061 STT @ 98.50 104,508.50 19.85 1/25/01 Sell 1,061 STT @ 109.36 116,030.96 116,050.81 1/26/01 Buy 9,284 CASY @ 12.50 116,050.50 .81 1/29/01 Sell 1,704 FAST @ 54.4375 92,761.50 92,762.31 1/30/01 Sell 3,852 AJG @ 26.90 103,618.80 196,381.11 2/2/01 Buy 3,336 MCD @ 29.43 98,178.48 98,202.63 2/16/01 Buy 2,380 SGP @ 41.25 98,175.00 27.63 2/20/01 Sell 2,336 SIAL@ 42.25 98,696.00 98,723.63 2/23/01 Buy 4,858 SCH @ 20.32 98,714.56 9.07 3/8/01 Sell 1,391 MO @ 50.85 70,732.35 70,741.42 3/9/01 Buy 1,911 CTAS@ 37.00 70,707.00 34.42 4/6/01 Sell 520 CTY @ 22.90 11,908.00 11,942.42 4/6/01 Buy 400 TROW@ 29.75 11,900.00 42.42 4/11/01 Sell 400 TROW@ 34.03 13,612.00 13,654.42 4/12/01 Buy 578 KELYA@ 23.60 13,640.80 13.62 4/18/01 Sell 1,911 CTAS@ 43.41 82,956.51 82,970.13 4/27/01 Buy 1,562 CMA @ 53.11 82,957.82 12.31 4/27/01 Sell 3,670 DG @ 23.88 87,639.60 87,651.91 5/4/01 Buy 5,393 DG @ 16.25 87,636.25 15.66 5/16/01 Sell 2,716 ABT @ 53.80 146,120.80 146,136.46 5/16/01 Sell 5,393 DG @ 18.30 98,691.90 244,828.36 5/17/01 Sell 1,319 AVY @ 59.84 78,928.96 323,757.32 5/25/01 Buy 2,817 ABS @ 28.73 80,932.41 242,824.91 5/25/01 Buy 2,437 MAY @ 33.21 80,932.77 161,892.14 6/1/01 Buy 2,476 May @ 32.69 80,940.44 80,951.70 6/4/01 Sell 2,820 VAL @36.00 101,520.00 182,471.70 6/8/01 *Buy 3,553 APPB @25.6667 91,206.50 91,265.20 6/15/01 Buy 2,968 IPG @30.74 91,236.32 28.88 6/26/01 Sell 3,553 APPB @28.98 102,965.94 102,994.82 6/29/01 Buy 2,666 SIAL @38.62 102,960.92 33.90 7/12/01 Sell 578 KELYA @ 26.35 15,230.30 15,264.20 7/13/01 Buy 478 WAG @ 31.89 15,243.42 20.78 7/17/01 Sell 2,136 GPC @34.29 73,243.44 73,264.22 7/17/01 Sell 1,562 CMA @ 59.75 93,329.50 166,593.72 7/19/01 Sell 2,666 SIAL @42.78 114,051.48 280,645.20 7/20/01 Sell 2,817 ABS @32.35 91,129.95 371,775.15 7/20/01 Buy 1,689 EMR @55.00 92,895.00 278,880.15 7/20/01 Buy 1,993 GE @46.63 92,933.59 185,946.56 7/27/01 Buy 3,816 HWP @24.36 92,957.76 92,988.80 8/2/01 Sell 478 WAG @ 35.57 17,002.46 109,991.26 8/6/01 Sell 9,284 CASY @ 14.25 132,297.00 242,288.26 8/10/01 Buy 4,649 DG @17.37 80,753.13 161,535.13 8/10/01 Buy 2,947 AFL @27.40 80,747.80 80,787.13 8/17/01 Buy 1,771 CTAS @45.61 80,775.31 12.02 11/14/01 Sell 2,437 MAY @36.48 88,901.76 88,913.78 11/23/01 Sell 2,476 MAY @36.59 90,596.84 179,510.62 12/7/01 Buy 4,376 KELYA @20.51 89,751.76 89,758.86 12/14/01 Buy 1,545 MRK @58.09 89,749.05 9.81 1/3/02 Sell 4,376 KELYA @ 22.80 99,772.80 99,782.61 1/4/02 Buy 1,694 MRK @ 58.89 99,759.66 22.95 3/4/02 Sell 1,689 EMR @ 63.36 107,015.04 107,037.99 3/8/02 Sell 2,968 IPG @ 34.06 101,090.08 208,128.07 3/8/02 Buy 7,949 CASY @ 13.09 104,052.41 104,075.66 3/13/02 Sell 1,545 MRK @ 64.37 99,451.65 203,527.31 3/15/02 Buy 7,715 CASY @ 13.19 101,760.85 101,766.46 4/5/02 Buy 1,782 EMR @ 57.08 101,716.56 49.90 4/12/02 Sell 1,991 DDS @ 25.19 50,153.29 50,203.19 4/12/02 Buy 1,496 GE @ 33.55 50,190.80 12.39 4/15/02 Sell 1,771 CTAS @ 50.29 89,063.59 89,075.98 4/19/02 Buy 4,274 TSS @ 20.84 89,070.16 5.82 5/1/02 Sell 2,947 AFL @ 30.46 89,765.62 89,771.44 5/1/02 Sell 4,274 TSS @ 23.00 98,302.00 188,073.44 5/10/02 Buy 3,629 SNV @ 25.91 94,027.39 94,046.05 5/10/02 Buy 2,022 STT @ 46.50 94,023.00 23.05 7/5/02 Sell 4,649 DG @ 19.39 90,144.11 90,167.16 7/5/02 Buy 2,013 OMC @ 44.78 90,142.14 25.02 7/11/02 Sell 2,013 OMC @ 49.39 99,422.07 99,447.09 7/12/02 Buy 2,317 MO @ 42.92 99,445.64 1.45 *CZNB purchase(7/14/95) adjusted for 1.6% stock dividend ex 8/30/95 ADM purchases(7/14/95, 7/28/95) adjusted for 5% stock dividend ex 8/17/95. ADM purchase 7/19/96 adjusted for 5% stock dividend ex 8/19/96. MO purchase(3/21/97) adjusted for stock split 3:1 (4/11/97). CZN.B purchase (5/21/97) adjusted for 1.6% stock dividend ex 5/31/97. CZN.B purchase (5/23/97) adjusted for 1.6% stock dividend ex 5/31/97. CZN purchases (5/21/97,5/23/97) adjusted for 1.6% stock dividend. DCI purchase (11/21/97) adjusted for 2:1 stock split (1/14/98). BEN purchase (1/2/98) adjusted for 2:1 stock split (1/16/98). Sell (10/20/98) of CCI reflective of name change from Travelers Group at time of purchase. Selling prices of GLK (3/8/99) includes OTL spin-off. Purchase of CTAS (11/19/99) adjusted for 3:2 stock split 3/8/00. Purchase of DG (10/29/99) adjusted for 5:4 stock split 5/23/00. Purchase of OK 11/26/99 adjusted for 5% stock dividend (10/7/00). MTB purchase 8/20/99 adjusted for 10:1 stock split (10/6/00). Purchase of AJG 1/12/01 adjusted for 2:1 stock split (1/19/01). APPB purchase date 6/8/01 adjusted for 3:2 stock split (6/13/01). Edited by - gz on 8/6/2002 20:0:49