Mercati di Frontiera - gz
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By: GZ on Martedì 20 Febbraio 2007 01:06
I gestori più tosti a Julius Baer, JP Morgan e simili (non è ironia, Julius Baer in svizzera sono efettivamente molto bravi come fondi internazionali) ora liquidano in Cina e India e si spostano su Zambia, Croazia, Kazaksthan, Nigeria, Vietnam ovviamente (anche se ormai è molto sfruttato), Mauritius, BanglaDesh, Costa D'Avorio
L'occasione può essere lo Zimbabwe dove l'inflazione è al 1594% al momento e può quindi ora scendere se terminano l'inchiostro con cui stampano banconote, ma c'è anche un IPO da mezzo miliardo di dollari in Nigeria dove il presidente del paese che è proprietario della società maggiore gentilmente offre un bel pacco di azioni sue
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Vietnam, Zambia Overtake BRIC Stocks as `Frontier' Markets Soar
By Alexis Xydias and Michael Tsang
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The smallest emerging stock markets are elbowing aside Brazil, Russia, India and China to become the world's best performers.
An index of 22 so-called frontier countries rose 12 percent in January, the fastest-ever start to a year. Five of them, including Vietnam, Ukraine and Croatia, are among this year's top 10 markets. A measure of BRIC stocks fell after a 53 percent gain in 2006 made Indian and Chinese shares the most expensive among the biggest emerging nations.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Templeton Asset Management Ltd. and Julius Baer Holding AG started funds in the past six months to buy shares in the smallest economies, betting they will outperform larger developing markets that have rallied for four straight years.
``We've started to go into some of the frontier markets,'' said Terrence Gray, New York-based managing director of emerging markets at DWS Scudder, which manages $114 billion. ``We're just trying to find better value.''
Gray bought shares of KazMunaiGaz Exploration & Production in September when the unit of Kazakhstan's state oil and gas company raised $2 billion in the nation's largest initial public offering. He may invest in banks and agricultural commodity producers in Mauritius, Nigeria and Zambia, after cutting his firm's holdings in China and India last year.
Less is More
Frontier markets, as defined by Standard & Poor's, are dominated by companies too small and too thinly traded to be ``investable'' for most fund managers. The acronym BRIC was coined by Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in November 2001. He said Brazil, Russia, India and China would join the U.S. and Japan as the biggest economies in the world by 2050, eclipsing most of today's developed nations.
The S&P/IFCG Frontier Markets Composite Index has gained 35 percent in the past 12 months, compared with a 28 percent increase in the Morgan Stanley Capital International BRIC Index and 12 percent advance for the S&P 500.
Zimbabwe, for instance, is mired in an eighth year of recession. The inflation rate surged to a record 1,594 percent last month as the government printed money to pay off debts. The Zimbabwe dollar has fallen as much as 42 percent since Jan. 20.
In Nigeria, attacks have forced Royal Dutch Shell Plc's unit to halt production of about 500,000 barrels of oil a day, almost a quarter of the country's current output.
Luring Investors
``One has to kick the tires if you are looking for returns,'' said Tim Drinkall, who manages about $200 million at Gustavia Capital Management in Stockholm. Six months ago, Drinkall spent 12 hours on a bus to visit Sojaprotein AD, a Serbian soybean processor, before buying the stock. His Gustavia Greater Russia fund has been adding shares in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, favoring them over companies in Russia.
Accelerating economic growth, the prospect that more governments will embrace capitalism and an increase in initial public offerings have lured more money to frontier markets.
Vietnamese Rally
Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center VN Index has jumped 45 percent this year, the biggest gain among the 83 benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg. PetroVietnam Drilling & Well Services Joint-Stock Co., the nation's fifth largest company by market value, paced the advance.
The Vietnamese economy may have Southeast Asia's fastest growth in 2007. The government expects 8.5 percent expansion, up from 8.2 percent in 2006. Last month, the government said it will sell stakes in three of the biggest state-owned banks this year.
In Ukraine, the world's second best-performing market, the PFTS Index has risen 37 percent. The government plans to raise $2 billion from sales of state-run companies this year, an 18-fold increase from 2006. The offerings will include shares in VAT UkrTelecom, the national telephone company.
The Nigeria Stock Exchange's All-Share index rose 25 percent as new shares, which doubled to $11 billion last year, helped boost demand. Transnational Corp. of Nigeria Plc, whose investors include President Olusegun Obasanjo, sold 60 billion naira ($468 million) of stock in Nigeria's largest ever IPO.
